Rolling business and financial news through the day, as a flurry of retail announcements brings us the the Good, the Bad and the Ugly and Bank of England chief Mark Carney explains how sterlingisation would work for Scotland
Tesco Bank becomes fifth bank to threaten move to England
RBS boss says relocation wont put Scottish jobs at risk
RBS, Lloyds, Standard Life shares rally
Scottish referendum - all the latest developments
2.44pm BST
The boss of Asda has said the supermarket will be forced to split its business if Scotland votes for independence, raising the prospect of higher prices north of the border, writes Jennifer Rankin. Earlier today, John Lewis chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield issued a similar warning.
Andy Clarke, chief executive of Asda, the UKs second largest supermarket, which has 61 stores north of the border, said if Scotland voted for independence it would be imperative to set up a separate Scottish business.
If we were no longer to operate in one state with one market and, broadly, one set of rules, our business model would inevitably become more complex. We would have to reflect our cost to operate here.
This is not an argument for or against independence, it is simply an honest recognition of the costs that change could bring.
2.29pm BST
So having destroyed the entire UK economy, RBS wants to leave an independent Scotland. The queue to drive them to the airport starts here.
2.19pm BST
The Better together campaign predicts that the currency chaos that would ensue if Scotland went it alone would cost Scottish families dear. The group says:
The governor of the Bank of England has provided written evidence to the Treasury Select Committee that confirms spending cuts or tax rises that would equate to at least £4,000 per person in Scotland to match the currency reserves held by Denmark, which pegs to the euro. This is a conservative estimate and the actual figure could be much higher.
To match the currency reserves held by Hong Kong, which pegs to the Dollar, would mean tax rises and spending cuts worth £95 billion - the equivalent of £18,000 per person in Scotland. This means there would need to be huge cuts to public spending on things like our NHS and pensions.
This letter provides further damning evidence of the massive cost to every Scot of going it alone. To match the reserves held by Denmark would cost each of us £4000, but if we had to build up Hong Kong style reserves the cost would be five times greater.
In the end, that money would have to be found from every Scots wages, taxes, or the public services like the NHS that we cherish. It is extraordinary that this fundamental issue has not been talked about or thought about by nationalists.
2.12pm BST
RBS boss Ross McEwan has tried to reassure staff that the bank has no intention of moving operations or jobs from Scotland following a Yes vote in next weeks referendum. The banks announcement that it would move its head office to London sparked fears for its 11,500 jobs in Scotland.
Scotlands first minister Alex Salmond welcomed McEwans pledge, naturally.
This is a technical procedure regarding the location of our registered head office. It is not an intention to move operations or jobs.
Our current business in Scotland, including the personal and business bank, IT and operations, human resources and many other functions, are here because of the skills and knowledge of our people, and the sound business environment. So far, I see no reason why this would change should we implement our contingency plans.
2.02pm BST
Finally, a summary of todays developments. Its been a busy morning.
1.42pm BST
Treasury Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie also warned about the impact of a potential move out of Scotland by some of its biggest banks, including Lloyds and RBS.
The Scottish banking sector as a proportion of the economy is currently huge. To have any reasonable prospect of retaining it, Scotland would need a massive multiple of its inherited reserves.
RBS and Lloyds appear to have concluded that this would be unrealistic for Scotland even to attempt and that therefore a separate Scotland could not provide a credible guarantee for deposits. That is probably why RBS and Lloyds have announced that they would move their headquarters following Scottish independence. They would need to protect their customers and shareholders.
1.32pm BST
Alex Salmond has accused the Treasury of leaking market sensitive information about the future of RBS in Scotland in a dirty tricks campaign to undermine the independence campaign, writes our Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell.
The first minister said it was an office of enormous gravity by an unnamed Treasury official to tip off the BBC last night about a decision by RBS to move its registered office to London after a yes vote.
That leak confirmed on Thursday morning to the Stock Exchange by RBS, sent the banks shares down overnight on the Asian markets, the first minister said.
1.24pm BST
So, Mark Carney says it would not be appropriate for me to judge the apportionment of the UKs reserves in the event that Scotland were to become an independent state. The eagerly awaited financial details of what sterlingisation would mean for Scotland turn out to be a series of tables that compare the reserves of various countries with currency pegs as a percentage of broad money, bank deposits and GDP.
Helpfully, Treasury Committee chairman Andrew Tyries team has worked out what it means for Scotland but the figures range widely from £34bn to £398bn. At the bottom end, Scotland would need a total of £34bn of reserves to match Denmarks ratio of reserves to GDP. At the top end, it would need £389bn of reserves to match Denmarks ratio of reserves to bank deposits.
1.04pm BST
The (potential) exodus from Scotland is growing: Tesco Bank has become the fifth bank to say it would move its head office from Scotland to England if Scots back independence. The bank, which employs 3,200 people in Scotland, said in a statement on its website:
To ensure we provide long term continuity for customers after the transition is complete, our contingency plans include the creation of a new registered company, domiciled in England.
While the creation of a new company would change the address of our registered headquarters, we do not expect there would be any immediate impact on colleagues at our existing centres. Scotland is an important market to us and will continue to be an important market regardless of the outcome of the referendum.
12.49pm BST
Tyrie said in response to Carneys letter:
The governors letter demonstrates that, whatever currency arrangement is chosen, a separate Scotland would require huge reserves.
The Governor noted that £15bn would be at the upper end of the range that Scotland might reasonably inherit as reserves. Scotland would need a multiple of that. The comparisons with Denmark and Hong Kong in the Governors note say it all.
12.49pm BST
Bank of England governor Mark Carney yesterday added fuel to the debate when he said that an independent Scotland would need to build up billions of pounds worth of currency reserves if it wanted to keep the pound, without a formal currency union.
He has sent the Banks work on currency sharing schemes to Andrew Tyrie, the chairman of the Treasury Committee. Its a fact sheet with a number of tables that summarise the reserves held by countries that use currency boards or fixed peg. The read-across for Scotland varies widely, depending on whether the reserves are expressed as a percentage of GDP, a percentage of bank assets, or a percentage of broad money.
12.27pm BST
A top Scottish law firm has moved its money out of Scottish banks for fear that a vote for independence would cause a run, writes Sean Farrell:
According to a report in the Lawyer the unnamed firm has shifted its cash because it fears a similar reaction to when Slovak customers moved their savings to Czech banks after Czechoslovakia split in 1993.
Were moving our cash to English banks, a partner at the firm told The Lawyer. When Czechoslovakia split the flow of capital was very quick.
12.22pm BST
Unite has called on Lloyds Banking Group to clarify its position on jobs if Scotland votes for independence next week. A spokesperson from the unions Scottish headquarters said:
The thousands of Unite members working in RBS in Scotland, who have lived with years of job cuts and restructuring, and continue to be concerned about the companys plans going forward, have been told directly by the chief executive that there is no intention to move operations and jobs, irrespective of what the outcome may be in the independence referendum on September 18. We now urge Lloyds bank to offer the same reassurance.
It is vitally important that the people of Scotland can come to their decision over the future of their nation in an atmosphere of calm rationality.
12.14pm BST
Lord Wolfson, the chief executive of Next and a Conservative peer, said the retail group would remain committed to Scotland whatever the outcome of next weeks vote, and refused to come down on one side or the other of the divide.
He played down fears of rising costs, but said there was some concern about any new Scottish currency and what would happen to taxes in the case of independence. My colleague Zoe Wood reports:
Lord Wolfson, who is a member of George Osbornes inner circle, said:
Which ever way the vote goes Next will remain absolutely committed to Scotland, its an important part of our business - about 9% of turnover - and what ever happens we will continue to invest in Scotland.
11.34am BST
Here is the statement from TSB in full.
Although the implications of Scottish independence remain unclear, it is likely that in the event of a yes vote, TSB will establish additional legal entities in England. Any change in TSBs legal structure would be taken in the interests of our customers and business.
In the event of a yes vote, it is clear that independence will not happen straight away and there would be a period of time between the referendum and implementation of independence which we expect would provide sufficient time for us to consider and implement any necessary changes.
11.16am BST
TSB, which was spun off from Lloyds Banking Group last year, has become the fourth bank to say it will move some operations to England if Scots vote for independence, following similar announcements from RBS, Lloyds and National Australia Banks Clydesdale.
TSB, which has 189 branches and employs almost 2,000 people in Scotland, said it would set up additional legal entities in England. Some 27% of its 4.7m customers are in Scotland.
11.02am BST
Remember that it was the two Scottish banks - RBS and HBOS (through Lloyds) that required taxpayers bailouts of over £70bn, writes independent City analyst Louise Cooper.
It may be viewed as unjust if the whole of the UK picked up the tab to bailout the two Scottish banks only for them to become Scottish in the recovery. Maybe Alex Salmond should be grateful that RBS and Lloyds/HBOS have said they will move south of the border. Westminster may well have given Mr Salmond a £70bn invoice for bailing out the Scottish banks. If Salmond wants the credit of past North Sea oil revenue to be taken into account in Scotlands new balance sheet, then past debits should be factored in too.
John Lewis has warned about keeping its pricing policy the same if Scotland leaves. But what about the Royal Mail? Does its universal service obligation continue of Scotland goes it alone? Or will the Shetland Islands have to pay much closer to the real cost of delivering to them? There are so many implications of Scotlands independence. Most of which will only be discovered if it happens.
I was in Aberdeen for three days at the weekend. A couple of things struck me. Firstly that many people I met were still undecided. Secondly that any No voters were keeping quiet about it as Nationalistic fervour was gaining ground. And thirdly that Scotland does not want to go the way of the divisions of Northern Ireland. The divide seems to be getting deeper and the emotional debate heated. Although clearly the debate in Northern Ireland is religious as well as political, the divisions run deep. I fear for the future of unity within Scotland as the campaign becomes more bitter.
There are so many uncertainties in this debate. Not least what happens to various company names? If Scotland votes yes, where does it leave RBS? It cannot continue as Royal Bank of Scotland? Does British Petroleum become the Rest of UK Petroleum? or RUKP? Feel free to send any suggestions of name changes and Ill tweet the best efforts.
10.27am BST
The John Lewis chairman has waded into the Scotland debate, warning that prices will go up north of the border if the yes camp wins. As my colleague Sean Farrell reports, Sir Charlie Mayfield said the employee-owned retailer did not intend to reduce its commercial operations in Scotland, where it has nine stores, a contact centre and more than 3,000 employees.
But he said that if Scotland votes for independence, retailers are unlikely to spread the higher operating costs of doing business there across the UK as they do now. He also warned there would be economic upheaval in the wake of a yes vote.
From a business perspective there will be economic consequences to a Yes vote, not just in uncertainty but some of the turmoil we are hearing about.
And it is also the case that it does cost more money to trade in parts of Scotland and therefore those hard costs, in the event of a yes vote, are more likely to be passed on.
10.21am BST
The Bank of Englands analysis of how countries such as Panama use another countrys currency has landed on the desk of Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, my colleague Angela Monaghan reports. The committee is hoping to make it public early this afternoon. It should shed some light on what sterlingisation might mean for an independent Scotland, further fueling the debate.
10.17am BST
Back to Scotland. Betfairs Exchange is predicting a victory of the no camp. Whilst a high number of smaller bets have come on yes in recent weeks, the big money trades continue to go on no. The internet betting exchange says:
Three-quarters of trades over £2000 have been on NO and two London-based customers have placed bets as high as £19,000 and £22,000 on NO in recent days, just after Scottish opinion polls indicated a big swing to YES.
Scottish customers, who make up 20% of the overall participants in the market (compared to just 9% of the UK population), have made a significant number of bets on YES since the weekend, forcing brief contractions in the price.
Punters betting decisions are formed from a variety of factors, with opinion polls being just one. Whilst the recent YouGov poll sparked a flurry of smaller YES trades the bigger money remained firmly on NO and this was backed up with yesterdays Survation research for the Daily Record.
The trends amongst Scottish customers are interesting, but accuracy can also come from a greater degree of detachment and its perhaps worth noting that the betting markets proved a far more accurate judge of the last US election (with no US based customers) than local opinion polls.
9.36am BST
Henry McDonald, our Ireland correspondent, reports that debt-burdened people in Northern Ireland owe over £3,000 more to credit card and loan companies compared to those in the rest of the UK.
The average level of personal debt is £18,400 in the region, according to Stepchange - the nationwide charity that advises on debt.
The UK average is £15,300, Stepchange noted in its survey of 2,000 people across Northern Ireland.
9.22am BST
Analysts at Citi said about sterling:
We see limited scope for much of a bounce heading into next week... should we see a yes vote. The next poll is expected around the weekend from Yougov, where markets will watch on the previous yes lead.
9.19am BST
Turning to the pound, the recent heavy sell-off has abated. Sterling recovered from a 10-month low against the dollar and also gained against the euro today, after a new Scottish poll suggested the no camp is gaining the upper hand again.
The poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of the Daily Record, showed 47% intend to vote yes to independence while 53% plan to vote against. The figures exclude 10% of people who were undecided, however.
9.06am BST
European stock markets are treading water at the moment. The FTSE 100 index is up nearly 4 points, or 0.05%, at 6833.58. Germanys Dax has advanced some 14 points, or 0.15%, to 9714.29, while Frances CAC slipped almost 6 points, or 0.13%, to 4445.15.
In London, shares in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group rallied after the banks said they would walk away from Scotland and move to London if the yes camp prevails. RBS gained 5p, or 1.5%, to 347.2p while Lloyds climbed 0.6p, or 0.8%, to 73.81p.
8.55am BST
The Adam Smith Institute published a report in August saying Scotlands use of the pound without a formal currency union could give it more stability than the rest of the UK. The free-market think tank argued sterlingisation along with banking reforms could lead to banks taking fewer risks and reduce the risk of future financial crises.
Sam Bowman, research director at the institute and the author of the report, said Scotland was almost uniquely primed for such a system of adaptive sterlingisation.
The examples of Panama and other dollarised Latin American economies are proof that countries can thrive when they unilaterally adopt another countrys currency.
Combined with a flexible, adaptive banking system, the unilateral use of another countrys currency can instil a discipline in a countrys financial sector that neither a national currency nor a currency union can provide. Scotlands banking system is almost uniquely primed for such a system of adaptive sterlingisation.
Between 1716 and 1844, Scotland had one of the worlds most stable and robust banking systems. It had no central bank, no government-backed lender of last resort, and no bank bailouts.
When banks did fail, it was shareholders who were liable for paying back depositors, not taxpayers. The economy flourished.
8.47am BST
Mark Carney agreed to pass the Bank of Englands work on currency sharing schemes to the Treasury Committee first thing on Thursday morning, to show what level of reserves are needed. Clearly first thing means something else to the Bank than it does to the City. We are still waiting, and the Banks press office doesnt know yet when the details will be released.
8.30am BST
The other big corporate news this morning is that Royal Bank of Scotland would move its head office from Scotland where it has been based since 1727 to London if Scotland backs independence.
The news came after the other bailed-out bank with major operations in Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, revealed last night it would set up legal entities in England to protect its credit rating, as our City editor Jill Treanor reports.
8.23am BST
Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers, has looked at the Morrisons numbers.
Morrisons may have confounded its doubters by raising its dividend in contrast to Tescos recent cut, but there nonetheless remains a tortuous journey to anything resembling a full recovery.
There are positive pockets within the update, such as a reduction in net debt, a well funded pension scheme and an improvement in working capital, all of which suggest financial stability. In addition, the company has returned to profitability after the previous full year loss, whilst the dividend hike adds to an existing yield of 6.7%, one of the highest within the FTSE100 and a clear attraction for income seekers. However, like for like sales, underlying and pre-tax profits are all sharply down on the corresponding period last year, the progress quoted in terms of the companys online and convenience store presence is nascent, whilst the ongoing assault from the discounters continues to crimp margins.
There may well be a recovery to come, and within Morrisons three year plan significant cash generation and cost savings are forecast. The share price has certainly reflected its difficulties, despite todays spike, having fallen 40% over the last year, as opposed to a 4% rise in the wider FTSE100. To a large extent, investors patience has long since evaporated and the market consensus of the shares as a sell is likely to remain in place for the time being.
The figures dont look too bad, with gross retail sales up by 15.5%, although given the amount of extra capacity in the business it is hard to escape the feeling that Ocado should be growing more quickly. CEO Tim Steiner says The retail environment is challenging with an increased level of promotional activity and price reductions across the industry. However, due to the strength of our offer, we expect to continue growing sales broadly in line with, or slightly ahead of, the online grocery market.
8.20am BST
Well, there are some surprises in how retail shares have reacted to the flurry of results. Morrisons is the biggest riser on the FTSE 100 index, despite posting its worst results in eight years presumably because despite the profit drop it is still paying an interim dividend of 4.03% a share, up 5%, and confirmed its to commitment to pay a full-year divi of at least 13.65p.
Morrisons shares were up 7.1p, or 4%, at 183.7p in early trading.
8.14am BST
Well, Super Thursday has brought us the Good, the Bad and the Ugly in terms of interim profits (best defined as Next, John Lewis Partnership and Morrisons), but it has also brought a reminder of the power of family shareholders with the return of Will Adderley as CEO of Dunelm... says independent retail analyst Nick Bubb.
But even Waitrose getting caught in crossfire as Brits fall out of love with big food stores. Profits down 9% on investment and competition.
8.02am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone.
There is a ton of retail news out this morning, and the Scottish independence referendum now seven days away still casts a long shadow over financial markets.
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