If you track my Tweets, ignore this blog.
For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?
More important perhaps, is that Millennials — Social Media Core Users — are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also, as of 2016, the largest home buying segment according to the National Association of Realtors®. Join in or check out, so-to-speak, with this massive economic demographic. One Florida Realtor® that occasionally retweets my info has 800,000+ followers – that is a highly effective use of their time!
Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.
Twitter followers on DrTCJ now totals 3,525 – please tell friends and colleagues and encourage them to follow.
While you may recognize some of the data from my blog, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “ I did not know that” information.
DrTCJ’s Tweets January 28, 2017 Through March 9, 2017
Residential Mortgage Rates Hit 2017 Highs 4.21% 30-Year Fixed 3.42% 15-Year Fixed 3.23% Treasury- Indexed Hybrid ARM 5/1 Freddie Mac
Airbnb looking at expanding into long-term rentals including apartment sublets, already does long-term in NYC charging 9-12% fee – Bloomberg
Survey by LendEDU of 500 college students: approximately 30% will fund their spring using their student loan vs 20% in Google’s 2016 survey
Average prices on single family rental investment homes rose 8.7% to $227,000 in 2016 v 2015 due to rising rental demand – HomeUnion via MBA
2016 Residential Loan Originations
44% Banks
9% Credit Unions
47% Non-Banks
Mortgage Daily
Average flipped home 2016 median price of $189,900 with a gross profit of $62,624 (before repair, remodel & transaction costs) – ATTOM
Housing Flips 5.7% of all home sales in 2016 vs 5.5% in 2015, but below the 8.2% peak recorded in 2005 ATTOM Data Solutions
193,009 homes were flipped in 2016 (selling twice in a 12-month period), up 3.1% vs 2015 and the most since 2006 – ATTOM Data Solutions
Commercial real estate cap rates rose in Q4 2016 in all segments except apartments due to rising interest rates – Real Capital Analytics
US oil inventory rose 8.2 million barrels last week to 528 million barrels triggering a 5.3% 1-day decline, biggest 1-day drop in 13 months
An estimated 298,000 private sector jobs were added in February 2017 (66,000 in construction), up 16% versus February 2016 – ADP
Adjustable-rate mortgage loan application share at 7.4% week ending March 3, 2017 was the most since Oct 2014 (36.6% peak March 2005) – MBA
The average loan size for residential purchase applications hit an all-time record $313,300 in the week ending March 3, 2017 – MBA
Hotel Construction Pipelines (Rooms)
30,541 NYC
18,373 Houston
17,921 Dallas
14,873 Nashville
Lodging Econometrics
Smaller Markets – Better Hotel RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) in 2016 2.8% growth top 60 markets 3.6% outside top 60 markets CBRE
US hotel RevPAR (revenue per available room) increased at 5.7% CAGR in the past 5 years, forecast to grow at 2.2% CAGR to 2021 – CBRE
All-Time Record Consumer Housing Confidence from Fannie Mae’s February 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/surveys/national-housing-survey.html …
US consumers have never felt more confident about housing than today – Fannie Mae’s Jan 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index
78% of Americans surveyed in Fannie Mae’s Jan 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index were not concerned about losing their job – most in history
US home prices rose 6.9% in the 12 months ending January 2017 & are forecast to gain an added 4.8% in the next 12 months – CoreLogic
Typical UK home prices rose 5.1% in the 12 months ending Feb 2017 to £219,949 ($US268,514), down slightly from 5.7% a year ago – PropertyWire
Lumber Prices Rocketing Up – Since Jan 1 2017, framing lumber for homes (2×4) jumped 15%, with (2×10) up 20% – NAHB
Families with kids in cities spend an average $9,073 more on basic housing & childcare vs the suburbs – Zillow & http://Care.com
Non-bank mortgage loan originators made up 26% of all licenses on NMLS system in Q4 2016, an all-time record – Mortgage Daily
US trade deficit rose to a 5 year high in January 2017 to $48.5 billion due to strong $US reducing exports & cheaper imports
The best time to list a home for sale this year is May 1-15 per Zillow study — sells for 1% more & in 9 days less
IRS Audit Rates 2016
0.7% Average
1.7% Earning $200,000+
5.8% Earning $1 million+
0.49% Business
USA Today http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/06/your-odds-facing-irs-audit-1–143/98808612/…
IRS audited 1 of 143 tax filers (in person or by correspondence) in fiscal tax year 2016, (0.7%) the lowest rate since 2003 – USA Today
Apartment sales, after a hot January 2016, plunged 63% in January 2017 to a similar volume seen in 2014 – Real Capital Analytics via MFE
Estimated Cost to Raise a Child Born in 2015 to 18 Years Old by Household Income Group
$174,690 Low
$233,610 Middle
$372,210 High
USDA
Median Home Downpayment 7% Pre-Housing Bubble 3% Bubble Peak (some at zero) 7% Bubble Recovery 6% Today ATTOM Data Solutions via CNBC
Use of Home Equity Lines of Credit Loans (HELOCS) are up 21% in the past 2 years, now at the highest level since 2008 – Moody’s via CNBC
The current US new home size is an average 2,700 square feet, 57% larger than 40 years ago – HousingWire
Factory orders climbed for the 6th out of 7 months in January 2017, up 1.2% for the month – Commerce Department
1 out of 4 (26%) of all Baby Boomers do not intend to retire until the age of 70 – Insured Retirement Institute (IRI)
Not even 1/2 (39%) of all Baby Boomers have even attempted to figure out how much savings they need to retire – Insured Retirement Institute
Top Rent Increase Q4 2016 Year-Over-Year in 25 Surveyed Markets by RentRage 12.9% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 10.9% Cape Coral-Ft Myers
Where Owners & Renters Live the Shortest Time in Their Dwelling http://Realtor.com
Where Owners & Renters Live the Longest in Their Dwelling Units http://Realtor.com
15% of homebuyers aged 24-35 are unmarried couples today, up from just 4% in 2005, with 25% of couples purchasing before marriage – Zillow
Luxury housing market may have turned the corner – Manhattan saw 108 $4+ million contracts signed in Feb 2017 – up 42% YOY – Mercedes/Berk
Percent of People Moving 20% in 1948 12% in 2015 US Census Bureau The typical seller in 2016 had lived in their home 7.88 years
Internet Access of Households 31% None 35% Underconnected (such as Smartphone) 34% High-Speed Access Connect-Home HUD Survey
Least Expensive States for Car Insurance 2016 Bloomberg BusinessWeek
Most Expensive States for Car Insurance 2016 Bloomberg BusinessWeek
Top States for Declines in Union Membership Bloomberg BusinessWeek
With 6 more states passing Right to Work laws in the past 5 years, just 10.7% of US workers belong to unions, down 47% since 1983 –Bloomberg
Shell says the average cost to drill and frack an oil well today is $5.5 million, down 56% from 2013 – Bloomberg
The OPEC cartel has lost $2 trillion in revenues & capital investment in oil & gas since the June 2014 downturn – Nigeria Leadership Paper
Millennial homebuyers made up 42% of all homebuyers in 2016 with half living in the suburbs, 33% urban & 20% rural – Zillow
NAR survey of 3,800 Realtors reports expected 2017 median home price increase of 3.5%
30-year residential fixed loan interest rates dipped to 4.10% for week ending March 1, 2017, down from 4.16% the prior week – Freddie Mac
81% of respondents to a survey by the Community Associations was that poor workmanship in condos was their primary complaint
Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 223,000 for the last week of February, lowest since the recession
20% of recent homebuyers in NerdWallet’s survey wished they had saved more for downpayment & 14% wishing they had shopped more for a loan
Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 223,000 for the last week of February, lowest since the recession
The typical American homeowner paid $2,149 property tax last year / New Jersey having the greatest percentage tax rate at 2.35% – WalletHub
3rd biggest concern of US home builders in the latest NAHB survey was impact fees, hook-up fees, inspection fees and other governmental fees
2nd biggest concern of US home builders in the latest NAHB survey was the cost & availability of new residential lots at 67%
82% of US home builders responded that their top concern was availability & cost of labor – NAHB Builder Survey
In 2011 50% of all new residential loans originated from the 3 largest banks in the US – but just 21% in September 2016 – Washington Post
Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 300 points today to close at more than 21,000 for the 1st time in history
The Labor Dept is delaying the rules for new rules for Financial Advisers from April 10th to June 9th allowing more consumer comments
Online transaction & auction firm Ten-X forecasting February 2017 housing sales up 7% year-over-year but down 3% from January 2017
Q4 2017 GDP unchanged at an estimated 1.9% despite an estimated 3.0% increase in consumer purchases – Commerce Department
NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (newly signed contracts) was up just 0.4 percent in January 2017 vs a year ago & down 2.8% vs December 2016
Dividend Capital’s Dr Glenn Mueller’s Q4 2016 Commercial Real Estate Report http://mediacenter.merrillcorp.com/interface/viewer.asp?LocationID=7039099&ClientID=35&Purpose=HUMAN_VIEW&Caller=RETRIEVE_FILE …
Corporate income taxes are 9+ percent in six states plus the District of Columbia: AK, CT, Iowa, MN, NJ and PA – The Tax Foundation
FitchRatings believes that Texas housing prices are overpriced by 10% to 14%, with Idaho homes most overpriced at 15% to 19%
Ongoing, the words “Department Store” are alarming words for real estate investors: JC Penney to close up to 140 stores
Residential listings are down 7%+ YOY with Orlando down 19%, Cleveland & Minneapolis off 18% & Seattle 17% – http://Realtor.com
While overall retail sales increased 4.1% from 2015 to 2016, e-commerce grew by 14.3% – CBRE
E-commerce made up 8.3% of all retail sales in Q4 2016 and increased 4.0% year-over-year combined in November & December – CBRE
30 year fixed-rate residential interest rates averaged 4.16% for the past week vs 4.15% prior week, 5-year fixed ARM 3.17% – Freddie Mac
The US made up 53.2% of the value of the global stock market December 31, 2016 vs 15% on the same date in 1899 – Credit Suisse
38% of all January existing home sales were on the market less than 1 month, with non-distressed sales at an average 49 days – NAR
Investors bought 15% of all January 2017 home sales and paid all-cash 59% percent of the time – NAR
23% of all home sales in January 2017 were all-cash transactions, down from 26% a year ago but up from 21% in December 2016 – NAR
Short sales made up 2 of every 100 sales (2%) in January 2017, selling at an average 10% discount to non-distressed properties – NAR
Foreclosures made up 1 of every 20 sales (5%) in January 2017, selling at an average 14% discount to non-distressed properties – NAR
Inventory of existing homes available for sale is now the lowest seen since prior to 2009 at 4.0 months on a seasonally adjusted basis – NAR
The number of available home listings in January 2017 fell 7.1% from a year ago, now with just 4 months of inventory (6 months normal) – NAR
January 2017 median home price at $228,900 was up 7.1% from year ago, making 59 consecutive months of a year-over-year increase – NAR
January 2017 existing home sales rose from 302,000 a year ago to 320,000 (not annualized, raw monthly data), a gain of 5.96% – NAR
Existing home sales jumped up 3.8% year-over-year in January 2017 to 5.69 million SAAR, most since February 2007 – NAR
Texas existing home sales in 2016 were an all-time record, up 4.6% from 2015 with median price up 7.7% to $210,000 – Texas Assn of Realtors
CBRE estimates that required logistics space to serve rising e-commerce sales is 1.25 million sq ft of space per $1 billion of online sales
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a slight gain (Feb 22, 2017), resulting in the longest-running record-setting streak in 30 years
How Much You Need to Save for Retirement — by Age Levels Per CNBC
By the age of 30, your Annual Salary
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/heres-how-much-money-you-should-have-saved-at-every-age.html?__source=newsletter%7Cmakeitweekly
Shrinking Residential Refinance Market Forecast Fannie Mae February 2017 Forecast
The average calendar year return for the S&P500 since 1945 has been 24% when the S&P rose in both January & February – CFRA
California existing homes sales were up 2.1% in January 2017 vs a year ago, with median price down 3.8% to $489,580 – CAR
Homeowners in the years 1985-2000 spent an average 21.0% of household income on mortgages, but just 15.8% in Q4 2016 – Zillow via RISMedia
Americans renting in the years 1985-2000 spent an average 25.8% of Household income on rent, it was 29.2% in Q4 2016 – Zillow via RISMedia
2015 legislation: IRS to share info with State Dept, people with $50,000 & up tax debt could be denied or have passport revoked – USA Today
2016 typical homebuyer with a mortgage spent approximately 16% of median household income for housing, most since 2010 – Zillow via RISMedia
Rising home values & interest rates inflated the average monthly mortgage payment in 2016 by $68 to $758 – Zillow via RISMedia
While the implementation of TRID rules were costly & complex in 2015, that may pale given the pending 900 page servicing rules from the CFPB
Townhouse construction starts totaled 97,000 units in 2016, up 12% vs 2015 &. Made up 12.4% of all single family starts in Q4 2016 – NAHB
35% of recent homebuyers reported closing costs & fees exceeded the original TRID estimate vs 31% with costs as expected – ClosingCorp
After rising an average 6.75% per year 2010-2015, up 8% in 2016 due to low rates, Germany’s housing may be up to 30% overvalued – Bundesbank
58% of recent homebuyers reported initial estimate on closing costs changed citing: closing costs, insurance costs & taxes – ClosingCorp
17.3 million SFR homes & condos worth $4.9 trillion are in ZIP Codes ranking HIGH or VERY HIGH for 1 to 4 environmental hazards – ATTOM
30-year fixed-rate residential mortgage rates averaged 4.15% vs 3.65% a year ago for the week ending Feb 16, 2017 – Freddie Mac
94% of new jobs resulting from alternative careers, freelancing, small office/home office & the gig economy – Princeton & Harvard Economists
Top Job Growth Markets 12 Months Ending December 2016
The average down payment on a residential purchase loan was 11% in 2016, and just less than 8% for those under 35 years of age – NAR
Patents Issued by State http://howmuch.net
Patents Issued Per 1,000 Population http://howmuch.net
Patents Issued 1977-2015 http://howmuch.net
The core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose to 3.8% in January 2017 on a seasonally adjusted basis up from 2.7% in December 2016 – BLS
Inflation surged in January 2017 with the CPI jumping to 6.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis up from 3.1% in December 2016 – BLS
Residential property values in Ireland rose 8.1% in 2016, with an average price paid by householders at €240,937 ($US255,282) – PropertyWire
New Zealand median home price jumped up 9.4% in January 2017 vs a year ago to a record $490,000 – Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
The refinance share of residential loan applications fell to 46.9% week ending February 10, 2017, the lowest level since June 2009 – MBA
With 434,000 new renter households formed in 2016, SFR rental vacancy rate fell 20 basis points in December 2016 to 5.1% – Morningstar
20% of Late Boomers, Millennials aged 25-35 moved last year vs 26% of Gen Xers at that age, vs 27% of Late Boomers in 1990 – Pew Research Center
Restrictive lending conditions saw more than 1 million potential borrowers on housing in 2015 not purchase a home – Urban Institute
19.4% of non-owner occupied properties were underwater at the end of 2016 vs 6.8% of owner-occupied – ATTOM Data Solutions
Greatest Percent of Seriously Underwater Homes
19.5% Nevada
16.6% Illinois
16.3% Ohio
14.6% Missouri
14.5% Louisiana
ATTOM Data Solutions
Greatest Percent of Equity Rich Homes
37.7% Hawaii
36.9% Vermont
36.0% California
34.9% New York
32.0% Oregon
ATTOM Data Solutions
13.877 million equity rich properties (loan is less than 1/2 the property value) at the end of 2016, up 1.3 million in the year – ATTOM
2016 home sellers had an average 7.88 years tenure, a record, versus just 4.26 years from 2000 to 2008 – ATTOM Data Solutions
End of 2016 saw 5.4 million properties seriously under water (loan secured by the property at least 25% more than property value) – ATTOM
The number of seriously underwater properties fell by 1 million in 2016, now down by 7.1 million from the peak 2012 – ATTOM Data Solutions
Lowest Foreclosure Inventory – Homes With Loans
0.2% Colorado
0.3% Arizona
0.3% California
0.3% Minnesota
0.3% Utah
CoreLogic
Highest Foreclosure Inventory – Homes With Loans
2.8% New Jersey
2.7% New York
1.8% Maine
1.7% Hawaii
1.6% D.C.
CoreLogic
Greatest Number of Foreclosures in 2016
45,000 Florida
30,000 Michigan
24,000 Texas
21,000 Ohio
19,000 California
CoreLogic
Fewest Number of Foreclosures in 2016
182 North Dakota
254 D.C.
312 West Virginia
630 Montana
668 Arkansas
CoreLogic
An estimated 329,000 homes in the US were in some stage of foreclosure in Dec 2016 vs 467,000 a year ago, down 29.5% – CoreLogic
The December 2016 residential foreclosure rate was just 0.8% of all homes with loans, the lowest seen since June 2007 – CoreLogic
Serious delinquent loans (90 days or more past due) were at 2.6% in Dec 2016, the lowest seen since June 2007 – CoreLogic
21,000 completed foreclosures from in Dec 2016, down 41.7% vs a year ago at 36,000 – CoreLogic
Percent of Workers Working from Home at Least 1 Day Per Week
7.0% 1997
7.8% 2005
9.5% 2010
24% 2015 (part of daily work)
BLS Via NAHB
Timeframe for breaking even on buying a home versus renting was 1 year 11 months in Q4 2016, 3 weeks longer than 1 year ago – Zillow
112+ million US households reported an average $62,116 of taxable income in 2014, latest year of data available – Motley Fool via USA Today
89% of US metro housing markets saw home prices increase in Q4 2016, with 17% rising double digits – NAR
More than one-half of US housing markets were at an all-time median home price peak at the end of 2016 – NAR
Average American retiree spends $6,852 per year ($571 monthly) on transportation, while owning a car costs $8,700 annually (AAA) – USA Today
Average American retiree spends $15,528 annually on housing, or $1,294 per month, plus 1 – 4% of Home value on annual upkeep – Motley Fool
China was the largest foreign investor in US real estate in 2016 at $15.9 billion at approximately 25% of total foreign investment – CBRE
Since 2012, 7.1 million homes that were underwater at the low point (loan amount more than value) are now above water – ATTOM Data Solutions
UK home prices, after increasing 4.4% in 2016, are forecast to rise 3.5% in 2017 – Lancaster University Management School via PropertyWire
89 of the 201 metros (44%) having at least 200,000 people ended 2016 with all-time record home prices – ATTOM Data Solutions
Absorption of US office space totaled 38.5 million square feet in 2016, down 13% from 44.5 million in 2015 – Reis via WSJ
Respondents reporting “significantly higher income” in 2016 to Fannie Mae’s monthly survey rose from 10% to 15%, bidding well for 2017
2016 US trade deficit at $502.3 billion was the highest in 4 years (since 2012) with Mexico’s share $63.2 billion, up 4.2%, a 5 year high
US home prices jumped 7.2% year-over-year in December 2016 and are forecast to rise 4.7% in the 12 months ending December 2017 – CoreLogic
By 2035 1 in 5 People in the US will be 65 or older & 1 in 3 households will be headed by someone in that age group – Harvard
Most Affordable Home Markets for Single Women Monthly Payment as % of Income 4% Detroit 10% Wichita 10% Indianapolis 12% Tulsa Rent Café
Retracting commercial real estate sales in the U.K. Arising from BREXIT saw JLL’s UK capital markets revenues drop 13% in 2016
16% of CEOs plan to increase hiring due to robotics, 58% of CEOs intend to cut jobs in the next 5 years due to robotics – PWC via USA Today
49% of worker activities can be turned over to a machine or robot driven by artificial intelligence – McKinsey via USA Today
More than 6% of all home sales in 2016 were flips (selling twice within 12 months), the greatest percentage in a decade – Trulia
The US homeownership rate dropped from 63.7% in 2015 to 63.4% in 2016 – US Census Bureau via @HousingWire
Hispanics were the only segment to increase their homeownership rate in 2016, rising from 45.6% in 2015 to 46.0% in 2016 – Census Bureau
The US added 227,000 net new jobs in January, the most in the prior three months – BLS
The typical American household paid $2,127 in property taxes in 2015, Hawaii the lowest tax rate at 0.27% & NJ tops at 2.29% – WalletHub
The average time to complete a typical high-rise apartment increased from 17.5 months in 2013 to 24 months in 2016 – MPF Research
Since the downturn, the US has added 3.6 million office jobs with a net absorption of just 47 square feet per new worker – MBA
Quickening pace of multifamily construction sees Freddie Mac forecast 2017 apartment vacancy rates above 5% for 1st time since 2011
December 2016 existing home pending sales index (newly signed contracts) rose a minuscule 0.3% year-over-year – NAR
Millennial Top Values for Housing 30% Location 19% Price 11% Outdoor Space 9% Walkability 8% Design Meyers Research Millennial Survey
An estimated 563,000 new homes sold in 2016 (newly-signed sales contracts), up 12.2% from a year ago – US Census Bureau
Average daily wages in Mexico have risen by just 18% since 2000 to $US16.70 as large numbers entered the workforce – WSJ
The median new home sales price sold in 2016 was $322,500, up 11.6% from 2015 ($288,900) – Census Bureau via WSJ
While the number of manufacturing jobs rose by 236,000 in 2016, the number of unionized workers in the sector dropped by 74,000 – WSJ
In 2015 the US trade deficit was primarily China (48%), EU 20% & Japan 9%, with Mexico just 8% & Canada 2% – US Census Bureau via WSJ
Just 20.7% of US workers were union members in 2016, down from 11.1% in 2015 & more than 20% in the early 1980s – WSJ
US economy (GDP) grew at just 1.9% on an annualized rate in Q4 2016 based on the 1st estimate
New home sales (newly signed contracts) fell 10.4% in December 2016 vs a year earlier – US Census Bureau
Get your own Twitter account and Tweet away — and of course retweeting the ones of mine you find interesting.
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If this 62-year old can Tweet, so can you.
Ted