For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?
More important perhaps, is that Millennials — Social Media Core Users — are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also, as of 2016, the largest home buying segment according to the National Association of Realtors®. Join in or check out, so-to-speak, with this massive economic demographic. One Florida Realtor® that occasionally retweets my info has 800,000+ followers – that is a highly effective use of their time!
Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.
Twitter followers on DrTCJ now totals 3,225 – please tell friends and colleagues and encourage them to follow.
While you may recognize some of the data from my blog, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information.
DrTCJ’s Tweets December 24, 2016 Through January 27, 2017
Ohio active oil & gas drilling rigs totals 20, less than 1/2 that of December 2014 (46) – Baker Hughes
Texas has 331 active oil & gas drilling rigs, almost double that of May 2016 (182), but just 1/3rd of September 2008 (946) – Baker Hughes
There are now just 8 active oil & gas drilling rigs in Alaska, one-half the number in February 2002 – Baker Hughes
Survey of Major US Hotel Lenders Outlook for 2017 54% Say Hotel Values Will Remain Flat 41% Say Hotel Values Will Decline — STR Via MBA
There were an estimated 15.7 million rental homes in the US in 2015, 99% owned by non-institutional investors – National Rental Home Council
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 20,000 for the first time in history driven by strong earnings from Boeing & Caterpillar
Autos & auto parts accounted for 40% of Japan’s 2016 exports to the US, with Japan running a $60 billion trade surplus overall – WSJ
5.76% of retail property real estate loans were in delinquency at the end of 2016, up 0.6% from the prior year – Tripp LLC via WSJ
Americans wrote 17.3 billion checks in 2015 (latest data available) vs 41.9 billion in 2000 – Federal Reserve via WSJ
Lenders liquidated 314 retail property loans in the 1st 11 months of 2016 at a loss of $1.68 billion on $3.5 billion of loans – Morningstar
Payment Processing Times at Check Out – Seconds
67 (seconds) Checks
25 Cash
24 Credit Cards
20 Debit Cards
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above 20,000 for the 1st time in history this morning based on economic growth expectations
For Macy’s planned 100 store closings, 41 of the 68 identified closings are within 10 miles of a sister Macy’s store – CoStar via Bloomberg
Macy’s planned 100 store closings and Sears pending 150 closings represents about 28 million square feet of retail space – CoStar
While Canada has an average 16 square feet of retail space per capita, the US has 24 square feet – Clarion Partners via Bloomberg
An estimated 5,000 retail stores have been shuttered in the past 18 months representing 50 million square feet of space – Clarion Partners
10% + of US retail space (1 billion square feet) may need to be closed, repurposed or lower renegotiated rent in the next 10 years – CoStar
CBRE Commercial Cap Rates 2nd Half 2016
Lowest – 4.67% Class A Multifamily Infill
Highest – 9.58% Economy Suburban Hotels
While holiday sales in 2016 for ecommerce (non-store) jumped 12.8% YOY, department store sales dropped 7.7% – US Census Bureau, CBRE
Total holiday retail & food sales increased 4.0% in 2016 vs 2015, with brick & mortar holiday retail sales up 3.1% in the same period – CBRE
US existing home sales totaled 5.452 million in 2016, the most closings since 2006 – NAR
A decade ago, 1st time homebuyers typically made up 4 out of every 10 transactions, but were just 32% of all December 2016 closings – NAR
US existing home median price finished at $232,200 in December 2016, up 4.0% from a year ago – NAR
1 in 5 (21%) of all existing home sales were all cash transactions in December 2016, vs 24% a year earlier – NAR
The inventory of existing homes for sale fell to 1.65 million at the end of 2016, the fewest since NAR started reporting this metric in 1999
In 2002, new apartment construction was 78% low rise & 7% high rise versus 31% low rise & 21% high rise in 2016 – MPF Research
Residential specialty trade contractor sector total employment is still 23% less today than the 2.4 million 2006 job peak – MBA
Almost 70% of all construction firms are having difficulties finding skilled hour workers: carpenters, electricians, roofers, concrete – MBA
The average residential rental high rise construction period has risen from 17.5 months in 2013 to 24 months today – MBA
2017 REIT performance returns expected to range from zero to 4% vs 8.5% in 2016 due to rising interest rates & cap rates – BTIG
Hardest Hit States if NAFTA Eliminated Exports to Mexico+Canada as % of GDP
1 Michigan
2 Texas
3 North Dakota
4 Kentucky
5 Indiana
WSJ
Jobs with STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) claimed 14 spots in Glassdoor’s ’50 Best Jobs in America’ 2017 survey – USA Today
China’s 2016 GDP growth was 6.7%, the lowest in a generation and would have been lower except for easy credit and state spending – WSJ
Houston average apartment rents in December 2016 dropped 3.9% YOY to $1,052 after peaking at $1,100 in Oct 2015 – Axiometrics
While sales at US retailers rose 4.4% YOY in December 2016, department store purchases fell 7.2%, now down 23 consecutive months – Commerce
Housing prices in the EU rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending September 2016, the largest 12 month increase since 2008 – EU Statistics Agency
The monthly average of employment claims dropped by 10,250 to 246,750, the lowest level recorded since November 1973 – BLS
The number of workers being laid off weekly plunged to a 40-year low last week pointing to growing optimism by businesses – BLS
December 2016 housing starts rose 11.3% from the prior month to an annualized pace of 1.23 million, 2nd best this recovery – Census Bureau
500 Millennial Poll Result June 2016
19% admitted to never checking their voicemail
Open Market via HousingWire
500 Millennial Poll Result June 2016
63% state texting is less disruptive to their daily schedule vs calling
Open Market via HousingWire
500 Millennial Poll Result June 2016
76% prefer texting to talking as it fits with their schedule better
Open Market via HousingWire
500 Millennial Poll Result June 2016
75% of Millennials could live without the call function on their device
Open Market via HousingWire
Greater Chicago housing sales hit 114,569 in 2016, up 4.5% from 2015 and the most the 117,503 recorded in 2006 – RE/MAX
Average residential rent was £1,908 in the greater London market in December 2016 vs £771 in the rest of the U.K. – PropertyWire
Asking residential rents in the greater London area fell 4.4% in 2016 vs rising 3% elsewhere in the UK – RightMove via PropertyWire
Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volumes 2016 vs 2015
-16% US
-27% Europe
-48% UK
Real Capital Analytics
Global fund managers had a record $237 billion to invest in commercial real estate in 2016, up from $136 billion in 2015 – WSJ
US wage growth in December 2016 was an annualized 2.9%, the fastest growth rate since 2009 – MarketWatch
US net asking rents for industrial and logistics property rose 6.3% in 2016 to $6.58 per square foot, now up 12 consecutive quarters – CBRE
The average small business spends $83,000 the 1st year on regulatory compliance – Survey by National Small Business Association
US inflation rose to 2.1% in 2016, the most in 5 years due to increased costs of housing, fuel & medical visits, despite grocery price drop
Greece’s Economic Woes
23% Unemployment rate
74% of jobless have been out of work for more than 2 years & have run out of benefits
WSJ
Greeks currently owe their country €94 billion in back taxes ($99 billion) equal to 54% of GDP – WSJ
Retail sales grew 3.3% in 2016 vs 2.3% in 2015, with holiday sales up 4% in November & December as US household wealth hit a record – WSJ
27% of the firms in business in Greece in 2008 have gone out of business in the 8 year ongoing depression, magnified by tax increases – WSJ
Though Greece has 11 million people, after an 8 year ongoing depression, just 3.7 million Greeks have jobs today – WSJ
Median Millennial Income
$47,688 Whites
$30,436 Latinos
$27,892 Blacks
Young Invincibles via USA Today
Median Millennial net worth at $10,090 is 56% less than Boomers at the same stage of life – Young Invisibles
Millennial median household income is $40,581, 20% less than Boomers at the same stage of life – Young Invincibles
While the lower income tier increased from 25 to 29% of all households from 1971 to 2015, upper income rose from 14 to 21% – Pew Research
Just 50% of US households were categorized as middle class in 2015, down from 61% in 1971 – Pew Research Center
Despite sub-$50 per barrel oil prices, Houston’s SFR home sales hit an all-time record number of 76,449, up 3.0%, median price up 4.5% – HAR
Federal Aid as a Percentage of State General Revenue
1 Mississippi
2 Louisiana
3 Tennessee
4 Montana
5 Kentucky
Tax Foundation
Central London office rents may fall 15% by mid-2018 with a worst-case estimate of a 25% decline – Morgan Stanley
Median single-family-home vacant lot price is now a record $45,000, topping the prior $43,000 peak in 2006 – NAHB via WSJ
Another lousy jobs report – just 156,000 net new jobs created in December 2016 with a 12-month growth rate of just 1.51%
US created a tepid 156,000 jobs in December but unemployment rate now 4.7% (which I believe is a bogus stat) – Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regular gasoline is projected to rise from $2.13 per gallon in 2016 to $2.49 in 2017 costing consumers an added $52 billion – USA Today
Manhattan office leasing, at 27.3 million square feet of new leases & renewals, was the lowest since 2009’s 24.4 million square feet – WSJ
Ford cancels plans to build $1.6 billion auto plant in Mexico, will add 700 jobs in Detroit – (Flat Rock) plant expansion
Largest Year-Over-Year Home Price Appreciation – Nov 2016
10.3% Oregon
10.0% Washington
8.8% Colorado
8.2% Idaho
7.8% Florida
CoreLogic
Existing home prices rose 7.1% in the 12 months ending November 2016 & are forecast to rise 4.7% in the coming 12 months – CoreLogic
While Ireland added 170,000 people and 75,000 new households from 2011-2016, just 17,000 new homes were built daft.ie
4 Things NOT TO DO When Listing Your Home For Sale
#4 Do Not Take Things Personal – selling and buying a home is business
RisMEDIA
4 Things NOT TO DO When Listing Your Home For Sale
#3 Do Not Hang Around When Showing – not just you, but the kids & pets also
RisMEDIA
4 Things NOT TO DO When Listing Your Home For Sale
#2 Do Not Over Decorate – Neutralize rather than customize
RisMEDIA
4 Things NOT TO DO When Listing Your Home For Sale
#1 Do Not Over Improve – do necessary repairs but not taste-specific changes
RisMEDIA
Bleak Retirement Savings Statistics Wall Street @WSJ
Since the early 1980s 401(k) availability has seen the rate of private sector workers with pensions drop from 38% in 1979 to 13% today – WSJ
Australia’s state and territorial capitals posted a 10.9% average home price increase in 2016, most since 2009 – CoreLogic
Top Questions for 1st-Time Homebuyers to Ask When Selecting a Realtor
#5 Any fees I need to pay you? Answer should be NO!
HousingWire
Top Questions for 1st-Time Homebuyers to Ask When Selecting a Realtor
#4 How will you communicate with me & how often?
HousingWire
Top Questions for 1st-Time Homebuyers to Ask When Selecting a Realtor
#3 Are you working for me throughout the transaction?
HousingWire
Top Questions for 1st-Time Homebuyers to Ask When Selecting a Realtor
#2 Number homes sold this year, how long in business
HousingWire
Top Questions for 1st-Time Homebuyers to Ask When Selecting a Realtor
#1 Experience working with 1st-time Homebuyers?
HousingWire
Residential median rents fell in 51 of the top 100 cities tracked by Apartment List in December 2016 YOY -Apartment List
Oil prices pressed on Aberdeen, Scotland real estate, with average prices down 6.9% in 2016 – Halifax via PropertyWire
Residential rents rose 3.9% in the 12 months ending November 2016 in England & Wales averaging £830 monthly ($1,020) – PropertyWire
US new car sales in 1st 11 months of 2016 on track to beat 2015 all-time record by 0.11%, cheap fuel pushing larger vehicle sales – WSJ
ATTOM Data Solutions Q4 2016 Home Affordability Index fell to the lowest level since 2008, down 6.9% from a year ago
Renters, with an additional 635,000 households in 2016, paid $478.5 billion of rent in 2016, up $17.7 billion, +3.7% – Zillow via RISMedia
US housing value, now an all-time record, totaled $29.6 trillion in 2016, up $1.6 trillion, an increase of 5.7% – Zillow via RISMedia
Global Energy Sources 2040 ExxonMobil – Outlook for Energy to 2040
Top Home Improvement ROIs
116.9% Attic Insulation – fiberglass
92.9% Manufactured Stone Veneer
91.5% New Garage Door
Remodeling Magazine
Top ROI Home Improvements
101.8% New Steel Front Door
91% New Fireplace
83% Turn Attic into Bedroom
80.7% New Siding
RISMEDIA
Uber co-founder creates Haus, an open platform allowing homebuyers & real estate agents access to all offers in front of sellers – RISMEDIA
6 years to get a 4 year bachelor’s degree costs up to $300,000 more after tuition, expenses, interest, lost income & retirement – NerdWallet
2016 US Stock Market Performance
13%+ Dow Jones Industrial
9.5% S&P500
7.5% Nasdaq Composite
8.5% Gold
14.9% Silver
45.2% Crude Oil
November 2016 employment rose in 303 of 387 Metropolitan Statiscal Areas (MSAs) vs 1 year ago, fell in 73, was unchanged in 11 – BLS
November 2016 unemployment rate fell in 271 of 387 Metropolitan Statiscal Areas (MSAs)vs 1 year ago, rose in 90 & was unchanged in 26 – BLS
The average insurance claim for a home with frozen pipes and the resulting damage is $18,000 – Hartford Insurance Company
NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (newly signed contracts) fell 0.4% YOY in November 2016 & was off 2.5% sequentially from October 2016
2016 Manhattan co-op sales were down 12.3% (through Dec 19) while Medan price rose 5.4% to $775,000 – WSJ
Despite 2016 median & average price gains on Manhattan apartments of 9% & 15% respectively, signed contracts $4 million+ plunged 22% – WSJ
Median priced Manhattan apartment rose 9% in 2016 to a record $1.08 million, average price jumped almost 15% million to $2.04 million – WSJ
2016 Holiday Sales Forecast Increase Total Online Source 4.9% 19% Customer Growth Partners 4.0% 15% MasterCard WSJ
The estimated increase in 2016 holiday sales was raised from 4.1% to 4.9%, the best since 6.1% in 2005 – Customer Growth Partners via WSJ
House flippers are now making an average $61,000 gross profit per flip (resale price minus acquisition price) vs $19,000 in 2009 – ATTOM
3 in 10 credit card holders (113 million accounts) carry over balances month-to-month, with card debt totaling $665 billion in 2015 – NBER
University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index post-election hit the highest reading in December 2016, the most in 12 years
Get your own Twitter account and Tweet away — and of course retweeting the ones of mine you find interesting.
Want to see all of my tweets or follow? Click https://twitter.com/drtcj
If this 62-year old can Tweet, so can you.
Ted