For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?
More important perhaps, is that Millennials — Social Media Core Users — are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also, as of 2016, the largest home buying segment according to the National Association of Realtors®. Join in or check out, so-to-speak, this massive economic demographic. One Florida Realtor® that occasionally retweets my info has 800,000+ followers – that is a highly effective use of their time!
Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.
Twitter followers on DrTCJ now totals 2,846 – please tell friends and colleagues.
While you may recognize some of the data from my blog, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information.
DrTCJ’s Tweets November 25, 2016 Through December 23, 2016
103 + million Americans are expected to travel 50 or miles from home Dec 23 to Jan 2nd, an all-time record, up 1.5% year-over-year – AAA
Q3 2016 Median New Home Price by Loan Type $332,100 Conventional $215,700 FHA $271,000 VA $296,200 Cash — Census Bureau via NAHB
Conventional fixed-rate loans were used to finance 3 of every 4 new home purchases (74.1%) in Q3 2016, most since 2008 – Census via NAHB
Since the election, GLD SPDR (largest exchange-traded fund tracking gold) investors withdrew $4.7 of the $30.2 billion fund – MarketWatch
Since the election, GLD SPDR (largest exchange-traded fund tracking gold) notched 28 straight sessions of investor outflows – MarketWatch
30-year fixed-rate residential mortgage interest rates averaged 4.30% the week ending December 22, 2016, most since April 2014 – Freddie Mac
Almost 40% of Americans aged 18 to 34 live with their parents, the most since 1940 (40.9%) vs a low of 24.1% in 1960 – Trulia
Q3 2016 GDP revised upwards from 3.2% to 3.5% on an annualized basis compared to 1.4% in Q2 – Bureau of Economic Analysis
Four states accounted for more than 1/2 the total increase in total US population from 2015 – 2016 TX. FL CA WA Census Bureau
The 9 most populous states make up 1/2 of the total US population – CA TX FL NY IL PA OH GA NC MI – US Census Bureau
42% of all existing home sales sold in November 2016 were on the market less than 1 month, with months inventory just 4 months – NAR
Foreclosures made up 4% of all existing home sales in November 2016 and sold at an average 17% compared to non-distressed properties – NAR
Short sales doubled from 1% of existing home sales in October to 2106 to 2% in November, selling at a 16% discount vs non-distressed – NAR
Distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) made up 6% of November 2016 existing home sales, up from 5% a month ago – NAR
Homebuyers paid all-cash in 1 out of every 5 transactions in November 2016 (21 percent), down from 27% a year ago – NAR
Investors purchased 1 out of every 8 homes sold in November 2016 (12%) and paid all-cash 58 percent of the time – NAR
1st Time Homebuyers made up 32 percent of all November 2016 closings, down from 40% a decade ago – NAR
November 2016 Existing Home Sales at a SAAR of 5.61 million was the greatest since February 2007 – NAR
Largest Population Gain 2016
432,957 Texas
367,525 Florida
256,077 California
127,710 Washington
113,506 Arizona
Census Bureau
Top Population Growth 2016
2.03% Utah
1.95% Nevada
1.83% Idaho
1.82% Florida
1.78% Washington
1.71% Oregon
1.68% Colorado
Census Bureau
Residential loans made in Q3 2016 were the highest quality loans originated (lowest credit risk) since 2001 – CoreLogic
30-year fixed-rate residential loan interest rates hit 4.41% for the week ending December 16, 2016, the highest since May 2014 – MBA
New York lost 1,900 people in the 12-months ending July 1, 2016 as the state’s population ages, with many moving to warmer locales – WSJ
The US had 323.1 million people as of July 1, 2016, up 0.7% year-over-year, the lowest rate of gain since 1936-1937 – US Census Bureau + WSJ
Non-bank lenders made 48% of all residential home improvement, purchase and refinance loans in Q3 2016 vs 47% a year ago – Callahan & Assoc
Top Cities for New Hotel Openings 2016
26. New York
25. Dubai
20. Miami
19. London
17. Riyadh
15. Doha
14. Shanghai
13. Houston
12. Chongqing
Amex
33% of those who have paid off their college loans have a mortgage on a home vs just 17% that have not paid off their college debt – FICO
California may eliminate 2nd home mortgage interest deductibility from state income taxes to raise $300 million for low-cost housing
Estimated total value of the US housing market is $23.9 trillion of which $10.2 trillion is debt & $13.7 trillion equity – Urban Institute
189,929 hotel rooms in the US are currently under construction, up 29.4% vs 1 year ago, with almost 1/2 in 26 markets – STR
The hotel pipeline (planning, final planning & in-construction stages) at 554,000 rooms is up 21.2% year- over-year – STR
Communication Blunders to Cease Break a Promise Interrupting Reacting vs Responding Negative Language Not Using Gentle Feedback Inc & NAR
While residential rents have risen 66% since 2000, household income is up just 35%, pressuring housing budgets – Redfin
1 out of 5 (21%) homebuyers regret their choice of lender, with 1 in 4 (27% of) 1st timers doing the same – JD Power survey of 5,000+
DO NOT read much into the November 2016 YOY gain in existing home sales as the new TRID rules pushed many November 2015 closings to December
Asking retail rents in Times Square plunged 18% to $2,104 per square foot in Q3 2016 vs a year ago – Cushman & Wakefield via WSJ
Most Challenging Court Systems & Jurisdictions for Companies and Defendants American Tort Reform Foundation – RBC Insurance Observations
Homeownership Rate Decline 2004 to Present
-8% Aged 35 or Younger
-16% Aged 35 – 44
-3% Aged 65 and Up
Pew Research Center via RISMedia
Homeownership rate of households headed by those aged 35 or younger fell from 43.1% in 2004 to 35.2% today – Pew Research Center
Homebuyer Down Payment Woes – 17% of renters would buy a home if down payment was 20%, 58% if down payment was zero – Pew Research Center
Subprime mortgage loans were used 32% of the time by black homebuyers in 2004 vs just 7% today – Pew Research Center
Subprime mortgage loans were used 18% of the time by Hispanic homebuyers in 2004 vs just 8% today – Pew Research Center
Subprime loans were used 17% of the time by low-income homebuyers in 2004 vs just 5% today – Pew Research Center
Homeownership rate of Hispanic households fell from a record 49.7% in 2007 to 47.0% today – Pew Research Center
Homeownership rate of black households fell from 49.1% in 2004 to 41.3% today – Pew Research Center
Homeownership rate of high-income households (earning more than $132,000 annually) fell from 86.6% in 2004 to 80.3% today – Pew
Homeownership rate of middle income households (earning $44,000 to $132,000 annually) fell from 73.8% in 2004 to 68.3% today – Pew
Homeownership rate of low income households (3 persons earning $44,000 or less annually) plunged from 52.9% in 2005 to 41.7% today – Pew
November 2016 residential foreclosure filings dropped 17% year-over-year to 86,561 – ATTOM Data Solutions
Housing starts plunged 18.7% in November 2016 to a SAAR of 1.09 million vs 1.34 million October 2016, a 9-year high – Commerce Department
The average time-to-close a residential transaction rose 10% to 40.5 days since November 2015 following TRID requirements from CFPB – NAR
New York City condominium sales prices averaged $1,886 per square foot in 2016 – CityRealty via USA Today
While gross online sales are forecast to hit $95 billion in 2016, $29 billion could be returned to the seller – eMarketer via CBRE
Retail store returns are typically 8% of sales, but e-commerce returns run from 15-30% based on product type – CBRE
The Federal Reserve is now forecasting 3 Fed Funds rate increases in 2017, up from 2 expected as of September 2016
The Federal Reserve just raised their target on the Fed Funds Rate 25 basis points to a range from 50 to 75 basis points — unanimous vote
Rising oil prices are fueling the Houston restaurant industry with 2016 sales up 15% year-over-year CBRE via Houston Business Journal
Just 3.5% of All Housing Has These Adult Senior Needs
Zero Step Entrance
Single Floor Living
Wide Halls & Doorways AARP
Harvard
The US loses approximately 5,300 jobs for every $1 billion increase in the trade deficit – Bloomberg BusinessWeek
U.S. Trade Deficit — Through October Year-to-Date Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
The number of electrified vehicles rose from 12 models in 2008 to 55 today, but the market share was up to just 2.8% vs 2.3% – Bloomberg
Just 34% of more than 1,000 consumers responded that newspapers were their most valuable source for news – Accenture Interactive via AdWeek
12 Month Total Residential Foreclosures – October 2016
51,000 Florida
29,000 Michigan
26,000 Texas
23,000 Ohio
20,000 Georgia
CoreLogic
Lowest Foreclosure Inventory of Homes with Mortgages
0.3% Arizona
0.3% Colorado
0.3% Michigan
0.3% Minnesota
0.3% Utah
CoreLogic
Greatest Foreclosure Inventory of Homes with Mortgages 2.8% New Jersey 2.7% New York 1.7% Hawaii 1.7% Maine 1.6% Washington DC CoreLogic
2.5% of all homes with mortgages were in serious delinquency (90 or more days past due) in October 2016 – CoreLogic
October 2016 saw 0.8% of all homes with a mortgage in the national foreclosure industry, down 33.3% from a year ago – CoreLogic
The October 2016 foreclosure inventory was down 3.6% vs September & has declined 60 consecutive months year-over-year – CoreLogic
There were an estimated 340,000 homes in some stage of foreclosure in October 2016, down 29% from a year ago – CoreLogic
The 30,000 completed residential foreclosures in October 2016 were 10,000 less than a year ago, down 25% – CoreLogic
Top MSA Rent Increases Q3 2016 Year-Over-Year
16.0% Seattle
13.4% Deltona- Daytona Beach
13.4% Lake Havasu
11.9% San Francisco
RentRange
Rising interest rates shrunk the pool of homeowners that would benefit from refinancing by 4.3 million leaving just 4 million to benefit – Black Knight
Largest Home Price Declines – 2006 to 2016 (Q3)
-31.8% Las Vegas
-30.1% Bakersfield
-29.0% Stockton
-28.8% Modesto
-28.5% Fresno
ACBJ
Top Home Price Gains – 2006 to 2016 (Q3)
64.9% Austin
45.5% Denver
45.2% Houston
43.6% Dallas
35.9% San Antonio
ACBJ
Investors dumping bonds pushed the 10-year Treasury note to a 27 month high today to 2.47%
30 year olds today are 1/2 as likely to make more money than their parents vs 92% born in 1940 at the same age – Harvard & Stanford Profs
Houston office market still has 11.8 million square feet of sublease space available today – Houston Business Journal
The average loan-to-value ratio of homes with loans was 55.4% as of Q3 2016, with 2.4% greater than 125% – CoreLogic
14.6% of homes with loans have less than 20% Equity totally 7.5 million dwellings – CoreLogic
30 year fixed conventional residential mortgage rates rose to a 2016 peak at 4.13% for the week ending Dec 8th – Freddie Mac
The number of Russians expressing an interest in buying luxury homes in the US jumped 35% since the presidential election – Knight Frank
The average cost to originate a residential loan fell to $6,969 in Q3 2016 from $7,120 in Q2 2016 – MBA
The net profit per newly originated residential loan rose 5 percent in Q3 2016 vs Q2 to $1,773 – MBA
Greatest Negative Equity MSAs
17.0% Miami
16.2% Las Vegas
12.2% Chicago
8.7% Washington, DC
5.1% New York
CoreLogic
Greatest Positive Equity MSAs
99.4% San Francisco
98.5% Houston
98.4% Denver
96.9% Los Angeles
95.3% Boston
CoreLogic
Greatest Percentage of Negative Equity Homes
14.2% Nevada
12.5% Florida
10.6% Illinois
10.6% Arizona
10.0% Rhode Island
CoreLogic
Greatest Percentage of Homes with Positive Equity
98.4% Texas
98.1% Alaska
97.9% Colorado
97.9% Utah
97.9% Washington
CoreLogic
The number of homeowners underwater on their loans now includes 6.3% of all homes with loans, down 10.7% in Q3 vs Q2 2016 – CoreLogic
US homeowners realized a $726 billion increase in home equity for the 12 months ending October 31, 2016, up 10.8% – CoreLogic
Average net asking retail rent in the US was $16.44 per square foot in Q3 2016, up 4.1% year-over-year – CBRE
The US had a net absorption of 55.7 million square feet of retail space in the 1st 3 quarters of 2016, up 8% from 2015 through Q3 – CBRE
The Dow, Nasdaq & S&P500 all closed at a record high yesterday for the 13th time since the presidential election – MarketWatch
82% of all meals are consumed at home – MarketWatch
Restaurant traffic dropped 1% in Q3 2016, the first decline in 5 years, with the average bill up 21% in the past decade – MarketWatch
US bankruptcy filings year-to-date 2016 are down 7% vs a year ago, with November off 50% from the 2010 peak = ACED
US pending Homes sales (newly signed contracts) were up 1.8% vs a year ago in October 2016 – National Association of Realtors (NAR)
Trump proposes a $100,000 cap ($200,000 for a couple filing jointly) on all itemized deductions including home mortgage interest – MBA
In the past 4 years, Blackstone has spent $10 billion buying 50,000 foreclosed homes for rental, with the fund filing for an IPO – WSJ
More than 2/3rds of 2,000 US Millennials surveyed prefer in store vs online shopping with the immediate availability of an item key – CBRE
Home prices were up 1.1% in October 2016, up 4.6% year-over-year and forecast to rise 4.6% in 12 months ending October 2017 – CoreLogic
2016 Homeownership rate for those under the age of 35 is now 34%, down from 41% in 2000 – Census Bureau
Average hourly earnings at $25.89 were up 2.5% year-over-year in November 2016, setting the stage for the Fed’s December rate increase
The US added 178,000 net new jobs in November 2016, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the lowest level seen since 2007 – BLS
Global bond markets lost $1.7 trillion in value in November – rising interest rates – down $2.8 trillion in the past 2 months – Bloomberg
The gifts in the 12 Days of Christmas increased to $156,508, up just 0.7% in 2016 vs a year ago – PNC Christmas Price Index
671 hotels sold year-to-date at average $136,934 per room, down 13% from Q3 peak of $156,461 – Lodging Econometrics
30-Year Conventional Fixed-Rate Interest Rate Forecast Ted’s Forecast: 4.7 to 5.3% by Mid 2018
2016 Cyber Monday saw $3.45 billion in sales, up 12.1% YOY, with a forecast $91.6 billion in online holiday sales – Adobe Digital Insights
Q3 2016 GDP grew at a 3.2% annualized rate (preliminary) – best level in 2 years – Commerce Department
October 2016 saw 56,500 new foreclosure starts, the fewest seen in almost 12 years with 644,400 total year-to-date – Black Knight
2.706 million home loans were 30 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process Oct 31, 2016, down 430,000 YOY -13.7% Black Knight
Top Annual Global Office Rent Growth 2015 – 2016 Q3
29.2% Stockholm
26.1% Oakland-East Bay
21.7% Buenos Aires
20.0% Dubai
19.7% Sydney JLL
Expiring Tax Benefits Not Likely to be Renewed
Mortgage Insurance Deductibility
Mortgage Debt Forgiveness
Energy Savings
Washington Post
Hottest Housing Markets November 2016 Based on Online Page Views San Francisco Dallas Vallejo Denver San Jose http://Realtor.com
63% of Women Baby Boomers have zero to less than $10,000 total savings vs 52% of men. Men are 2X more likely to have $200,000 or more – Pew
Home Price Change – Top Gaining MSAs – August to September 2016 Black Knight
Home Price Change – Top Gaining States – August to September 2016 Black Knight
Home Price Change – Most Populous MSAs – August to September 2016 Black Knight
Home Price Change – Most Populous States – August to September 2016 Black Knight
US home prices were within 0.6% of hitting a new record in September 2016, up 5.4% YOY but up just 0.1% August to September – Black Knight
To fight short-term rentals, Miami Beach fines homeowners renting via Airbnb, Homeaway & http://Booking.com $20,000 – Miami Herald
For the 1st time in almost 60 years the US once again became a net exporter of natural gas in November 2016 – US Energy Information Agency
Features Most Likely – New Homes Today
1. Walk-in closet
2. Laundry room
3. Low-emissivity windows
4. Great room
5. Energy Star appliances
NAHB
Features Not Likely in New Homes Today
1. Outdoor kitchen
2. Laminate counters
3. Outdoor fireplace
4. Sunroom
5. 2 story family room
NAHB
Cyber Monday online sales are forecast to hit a record $3.36 billion with 122 million Americans participating – Adobe Digital Insights
Preliminary in-store net retail sales dropped 10.4% & traffic fell 10.6% on Black Friday 2016 vs 2015 – RetailNext
40% of consumers shopped at a store this 4-day 2016 Thanksgiving-Black Friday weekend, down 3.7% vs a year ago – National Retail Federation
The average shopper this 2016 Thanksgiving-Black Friday weekend spent $289.19, down from $299.60 a year ago – National Retail Federation
2016 Black Friday online sales hit $3.34 billion, the 1st time to exceed $3 billion, up 21.6% vs 2015 – Digital Insights
43.8% of consumers shopped online in the 4-day 2016 Thanksgiving-Black Friday weekend, up 4.2% vs a year ago – National Retail Federation
Due to easy credit & longer-term car loans, a record 32% are upside down on their trade-in when buying a new car – http://Edmunds.com
Trump’s proposal for a cut the repatriation tax from 35% to 10% could result in $2.5 trillion of Corp profits brought back to the US – WSJ
Get your own Twitter account and Tweet away — and of course retweeting the ones of mine you find interesting.
Want to see all of my tweets or follow? Click https://twitter.com/drtcj
If this 62-year old can Tweet, so can you.
Ted