DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 172,074 lots, or 7.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-14 – - – 4,573 4,573 4,573 0 0 0
Sep-14 4,256 4,295 4,240 4,293 4,271 4,267 -4 34,424 122,368
Nov-14 – - – 4,309 4,309 4,309 0 0 184
Jan-15 4,300 4,344 4,267 4,343 4,321 4,315 -6 106,172 240,818
Mar-15 4,358 4,358 4,358 4,358 4,355 4,358 3 4 56
May-15 4,356 4,399 4,330 4,396 4,375 4,374 -1 31,238 121,846
Jul-15 4,439 4,441 4,439 4,440 4,439 4,440 1 8 24
Sep-15 4,410 4,463 4,410 4,460 4,444 4,444 0 228 20,424
Nov-15 – - – 4,403 4,403 4,403 0 0 42
Soybean No. 2
Turnover: 20 lots, or 737500 yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-14 – - – 4,580 4,580 4,580 0 0 0
Sep-14 3,970 3,970 3,970 3,970 3,975 3,970 -5 2 508
Nov-14 – - – 3,936 3,940 3,936 -4 0 6
Jan-15 3,749 3,749 3,650 3,675 3,650 3,674 24 10 130
Mar-15 – - – 3,697 3,697 3,697 0 0 24
May-15 3,620 3,660 3,620 3,629 3,614 3,632 18 8 78
Corn
Turnover: 97,538 lots, or 2.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-14 – - – 2,363 2,363 2,363 0 0 0
Sep-14 2,423 2,439 2,423 2,434 2,424 2,434 10 32,698 122,686
Nov-14 2,266 2,314 2,266 2,292 2,295 2,291 -4 16 62
Jan-15 2,302 2,310 2,299 2,300 2,309 2,303 -6 40,978 151,342
Mar-15 2,297 2,297 2,270 2,293 2,309 2,292 -17 18 46
May-15 2,330 2,336 2,317 2,319 2,335 2,325 -10 23,828 77,852
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,491,778 lots, or 48.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-14 3,450 3,450 3,400 3,450 3,450 3,487 37 390 0
Aug-14 3,532 3,550 3,532 3,550 3,548 3,544 -4 216 534
Sep-14 3,440 3,501 3,440 3,496 3,489 3,475 -14 521,570 981,366
Nov-14 3,318 3,329 3,306 3,325 3,338 3,318 -20 32 1,162
Dec-14 3,300 3,300 3,257 3,267 3,281 3,266 -15 214 1,114
Jan-15 3,188 3,223 3,181 3,217 3,211 3,205 -6 678,824 1,458,192
Mar-15 3,179 3,186 3,167 3,182 3,181 3,173 -8 56 848
May-15 3,083 3,098 3,070 3,091 3,107 3,088 -19 290,476 1,118,670
Palm Oil
Turnover: 687,764 lots, or 39.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-14 – - – 5,800 5,800 5,800 0 0 0
Aug-14 – - – 5,982 5,982 5,982 0 0 0
Sep-14 5,632 5,648 5,550 5,604 5,702 5,592 -110 57,660 113,406
Oct-14 – - – 5,704 5,740 5,704 -36 0 0
Nov-14 – - – 5,690 5,800 5,690 -110 0 4
Dec-14 – - – 5,746 5,816 5,746 -70 0 4
Jan-15 5,776 5,780 5,676 5,712 5,828 5,716 -112 589,750 420,984
Feb-15 – - – 5,860 5,926 5,860 -66 0 8
Mar-15 – - – 5,920 5,976 5,920 -56 0 20
Apr-15 – - – 5,934 5,966 5,934 -32 0 8
May-15 5,960 5,960 5,860 5,894 6,002 5,902 -100 40,354 52,562
Jun-15 – - – 5,954 6,038 5,954 -84 0 0
Soybean oil
Turnover: 343,468 lots, or 22.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-14 – - – 6,326 6,326 6,326 0 0 0
Aug-14 – - – 6,288 6,296 6,288 -8 0 26
Sep-14 6,300 6,326 6,272 6,292 6,372 6,304 -68 48,098 196,622
Nov-14 – - – 6,442 6,510 6,442 -68 0 30
Dec-14 – - – 6,504 6,550 6,504 -46 0 26
Jan-15 6,500 6,516 6,468 6,488 6,570 6,494 -76 266,668 651,296
Mar-15 – - – 6,570 6,644 6,570 -74 0 18
May-15 6,586 6,592 6,548 6,574 6,646 6,574 -72 28,702 159,354
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary-Jul 11
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
14-15 13-14 12-13 : 14-15 13-14 12-13 : 14-15 13-14 12-13
Soybeans 415 140 141 : 113.29 111.64 100.65 : 304.79 283.87 267.98
Brazil na na na : 45.00 45.75 41.90 : 91.00 87.50 82.00
Argentina na na na : 8.50 8.50 7.74 : 54.00 54.00 49.30
China na na na : 0.30 0.24 0.27 : 12.00 12.20 13.05
Soyoil 1,765 1,635 1,705 : 9.79 9.44 9.32 : 46.79 44.98 42.90
Corn 1,801 1,246 821 : 115.22 124.97 95.19 : 980.96 984.45 868.81
China na na na : 0.10 0.10 0.08 : 222.00 218.49 205.61
Argentina na na na : 16.00 13.50 18.69 : 26.00 24.00 27.00
S. Africa na na na : 2.20 3.00 2.05 : 13.50 14.50 12.37
Cotton(a) 5.20 2.70 3.90 : 35.58 40.50 46.69 : 116.42 118.33 122.95
All Wheat 660 590 718 : 151.61 164.31 137.18 : 705.17 714.20 657.70
China na na na : 1.00 1.00 0.97 : 124.00 121.93 121.02
EU 27 na na na : 28.00 30.50 22.62 : 147.88 143.32 133.85
Canada na na na : 21.00 22.50 18.97 : 28.00 37.50 27.21
Argentina na na na : 6.50 2.00 3.55 : 12.50 10.50 9.30
Australia na na na : 19.00 19.50 18.66 : 26.00 27.01 22.86
Russia na na na : 19.50 18.50 11.29 : 53.00 52.09 37.72
Ukraine na na na : 9.00 9.50 7.19 : 21.00 22.28 15.76
Sorghum 45 40 15 : na na na : na na na
Barley 80 82 80 : na na na : na na na
Oats 31 25 36 : na na na : na na na
Rice 39.8 32.8 36.4 : 41.56 40.70 39.29 : 479.43 477.46 471.66
DJ USDA Report: Summary For July Production, Supply/Demand Report
The following table is provided as a service to Wall Street Journal
subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
July world crop reports.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Production 13,860 13,935 13,842-14,122 13,935
Corn Yield 165.3 166.8 165- 168 165.3
Soybean Production 3,800 3,785 3,542-3,871 3,635
Soybean Yield 45.2 45.2 44- 46 45.2
***
U.S. 2013-14 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,246 1,225 1,146-1,296 1,146
Soybeans 140 130 111- 156 125
U.S. 2014-15 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Friday’s Average Range
Estimate USDA June
Corn 1,801 1,773 1,535-2,309 1,726
Soybeans 415 408 234- 570 325
Wheat 660 585 461- 723 574
***
World 2013-14 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 173.4 170.06 167.70-171.08 169.05
Soybeans 67.2 67.44 66.70- 68.50 67.17
World 2014-15 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 188.1 183.90 181.85-185.22 182.65
Soybeans 85.3 84.62 83.00- 86.00 82.88
Wheat 189.5 188.67 186.21-190.15 188.61
***
U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range
All Wheat 1,992 1,972 1,898-2,031
All Winter 1,367 1,384 1,336-1,426
Hard Red 703 720 686-750
Soft Red 458 453 443-470
White Winter 206 205 196-220
Other Spring 565 544 530-558
Durum 60 59 50-65
WHEAT
General Comments: Prices were lower. USDA came with its latest monthly updates on supply and demand and also its report on Wheat production. US Wheat production was estimated at 1.992 billion bushels, up from its previous estimate of 1.972 billion. But, it was the supply and demand updates that gave traders the most reason to fear lower prices as USDA increased ending stocks estimates at home and around the world. US ending stocks estimates for the new year were higher than trade estimates and were raised as much for demand loss as production gain. USDA now expects less feed demand on the domestic side due to cheaper corn prices and less export demand due to increased competition from the Black Sea and Europe. The northern harvests continue to move forward for Winter crops, and the US Winter Wheat harvest is now well over half done. Spring Wheat crops are developing under generally good conditions. US and Canadian conditions are good, and Spring Wheat crops in Russia and Asia are seeing some improved moisture. The charts show that Wheat prices are as cheap as they have been for the last few years. Demand has increased, but the increase in production is bigger, and prices might move lower again this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see scattered and light showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should get drier weather today and tomorrow, then showers. Temperatures should average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry weather today and tomorrow, then showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 524, 518, and 512 September, with resistance at 556, 561, and 569 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 620 September. Support is at 628, 622, and 616 September, with resistance at 645, 664, and 669 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 599 September. Support is at 625, 618, and 613 September, and resistance is at 644, 662, and 675 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 484,655
: Positions
: 68,897 139,355 116,083 4,782 19,852 74,180 118,476 43,338 30,810 19,901 90,491
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 7,059 4,066 -360 -309 -39 933 4,514 2,971 633 1,638 10,922
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 14.2 28.8 24.0 1.0 4.1 15.3 24.4 8.9 6.4 4.1 18.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 385
: 79 81 20 4 18 42 73 47 75 64 82
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 146,739
: Positions
: 28,658 69,740 34,766 1,395 846 39,060 21,362 3,307 13,045 13,499 11,599
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 2,409 -1,424 854 50 7 -2,370 2,820 -32 1,706 -198 845
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.5 47.5 23.7 1.0 0.6 26.6 14.6 2.3 8.9 9.2 7.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 188
: 35 52 15 . 7 32 22 15 23 27 27
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 60,312
: Positions
: 26,222 36,021 2,837 0 11 10,035 1,998 667 6,642 5,899 2,435
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 290 -585 -79 0 0 -794 367 0 -910 -345 -91
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 43.5 59.7 4.7 0.0 0.0 16.6 3.3 1.1 11.0 9.8 4.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 82
: 35 27 5 0 . 8 . 4 12 9 9
————————————————————————————————————–
RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower Friday on the weakness in the other markets and on the USDA reports. The world data held the most interest, and the biggest change was the data for India as the monsoon remains poor. The poor rains forced USDA to cut production estimates for Rice in its newest supply and demand updates that were released Friday. It left domestic and export demand for India unchanged to demonstrate lower ending stocks at the end of the next marketing year. USDA also cut imports for Philippines and ending stocks estimates, but left domestic demand unchanged. Vietnam showed increased production and stable demand for an increase in ending stocks. No other changes were made in the major importer or exporter country data, although Brazil showed a slight increase in beginning and ending stocks and China showed a decrease in both categories. USDA made no changes to the production or demand estimates for either country in the coming year. At home, USDA reflected increased area and production for Long Grain, and also increased domestic and export demand for a small increase in ending stocks. It made no real changes to the Medium and Small Grain estimates. The domestic data was not so bearish, and the world data was not bearish at all. Rice will have a chance to rebound if the other markets can trade in a more stable manner.
Overnight News: Mostly dry through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1311 and 1300 September. Support is at 1316, 1304, and 1292 September, with resistance at 1340, 1343, and 1356 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 8,726
: Positions
: 3,625 3,499 1,064 0 0 673 1,359 0 404 962 1,131
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: -40 126 34 0 0 -1 67 0 29 -19 43
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 41.5 40.1 12.2 0.0 0.0 7.7 15.6 0.0 4.6 11.0 13.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60
: 15 16 5 0 0 5 9 0 11 7 10
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Prices moved lower Friday after USDA showed greater than expected inventories in its world data. The US data was considered neutral as USDA really just accounted for the acreage shifts and stocks data seen it its reports at the end of June. USDA left its new crop yield estimate alone as the crop still needs to enter pollination. The pollination will happen later this month, and for now the weather looks cool. Cool weather at pollination is nearly ideal for Corn. US crops are generally developing very well under generally good growing conditions, but some northern and northwestern areas continue to be too cool and wet for best production potential. The current forecasts imply drier weather for these areas, and the crop should start to look better soon. Crop condition ratings from USDA for US Corn remain very high. Good to very good conditions are seen in most other parts of the northern hemisphere. World crops still need to pollinate and develop. Upside potential for prices appears limited without some weather threat developing as it looks like US and world production of feed grains will be high. There is no real reason to look for prices to move much higher for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 372, 366, and 360 September, and resistance is at 389, 397, and 406 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 317 and 301 September. Support is at 326, 322, and 318 September, and resistance is at 335, 340, and 345 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,829,445
: Positions
: 386,423 671,270 297,615 2,775 66,219 307,798 200,198 152,812 124,898 64,201 350,571
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 19,071 17,023 5,737 -526 -240 7,551 2,140 8,774 1,973 -2,923 37,956
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.1 36.7 16.3 0.2 3.6 16.8 10.9 8.4 6.8 3.5 19.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 767
: 265 321 21 5 21 59 79 71 117 109 158
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 8,474
: Positions
: 1,847 6,237 956 0 0 1,139 0 0 1,912 679 604
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 196 450 -16 0 0 234 0 0 13 104 34
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.8 73.6 11.3 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.0 0.0 22.6 8.0 7.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37
: 10 12 4 0 0 7 0 0 8 5 7
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: It was an ugly week for Soy Complex bulls last week as the old crop marketing season starts to wind down. Almost all of the old crop demand should be booked now, and that means the bid is leaving the market with any longs left caught holding the bag. USDA did not help the bull case on Friday when it increased US old crop ending stocks more than expected by the trade. However, the cash market had not demonstrated the same tight supply situation as had been seen in the USDA monthly estimates. USDA also sharply increased US new crop production and ending stocks estimates in response to the dramatic increase in planted area seen at the end of last month. Soybeans and Soybean Meal remain rather high priced items, but now will have to be offered at prices to create business. Prices will remain under pressure due to the potential for huge crops in the US this fall and large world supplies. Futures could work much lower later this summer as long as US production prospects remain strong. The weather is very good except for some areas in the north and northwest where there has been too much rain. USDA is showing very good crop conditions in its weekly reports and there is no reason for now to expect these ratings to change very much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1160 August, and resistance is at 1196, 1204, and 1212 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 382.00, 381.00, and 377.00 August, and resistance is at 391.00, 395.00, and 398.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3630, 3580, and 3520 August, with resistance at 3760, 3800, and 3850 August.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 861,151
: Positions
: 224,338 238,588 95,365 5,874 26,365 125,886 123,744 73,370 64,871 56,739 197,240
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 15,648 -9,543 -1,558 405 1,219 -8,536 11,525 10,753 2,576 -876 30,467
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.1 27.7 11.1 0.7 3.1 14.6 14.4 8.5 7.5 6.6 22.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 667
: 142 204 20 4 20 61 71 76 123 153 176
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 373,131
: Positions
: 95,829 181,738 49,757 2,443 15,702 68,509 37,393 11,587 21,978 32,128 60,941
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 132 -2,870 3,859 -86 -2,646 -5,566 2,690 338 4,165 606 2,851
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 25.7 48.7 13.3 0.7 4.2 18.4 10.0 3.1 5.9 8.6 16.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 265
: 67 80 16 4 16 49 22 26 24 56 55
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 357,344
: Positions
: 100,840 170,603 68,181 504 2,217 70,239 61,534 13,020 25,462 27,258 45,298
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: 6,592 -7,593 -555 4 101 -2,692 5,409 1,231 -1,495 2,651 2,965
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.2 47.7 19.1 0.1 0.6 19.7 17.2 3.6 7.1 7.6 12.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 281
: 67 67 17 . 10 32 46 25 38 46 54
————————————————————————————————————–
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed lower in response to the USDA reports and the Price action in Chicago. Some stops were hit when support was broken near 448.00 November. Prices had been holding due tooo wwworries about flood damage in western sections of the Prairies and the weaker Canadian Dollar, but Bulls could not hold the market once the USDA reports came out. Forecasts for warmer and drier weather in the Canadian Prairies will help crops that have suffered some damage from recent flooding. The biggest losses are in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Palm Oil was lower on weakness in Chicago and in Crude Oil markets. Export demand has been positive so far this month and ideas are thatgood demand can continue. Domestic demand is expected to tay generlly strong on increased use for biofuels. The weather feaures showers in Malaysia and showers and storms in Indonesia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 431.00 and 414.00 November. Support is at 432.00, 426.00, and 420.00 November, with resistance at 448.00, 454.00, and 457.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2335, and 2300 September, with resistance at 24310, 2435, and 2445 September.
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jul 11
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended July 6, 2014. Figures are in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
VISIBLE STOCKS
This week 2232.4 676.1 158.0 184.1 77.1 818.6 101.1 230.7 4600.9
Week ago 2239.5 566.0 154.7 188.4 63.5 876.1 104.1 268.7 4595.2
Year ago 2084.4 786.1 240.7 203.0 43.7 558.8 61.9 120.8 4125.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This week 374.4 123.8 33.7 31.8 6.1 293.4 48.0 9.0 998.4
Week ago 503.5 154.6 38.5 46.5 10.3 398.8 62.4 8.7 1236.5
To date 18821.3 4499.9 1560.8 2765.8 456.5 14269.7 2241.7 371.9 46131.3
Year ago 15963.6 4036.0 1615.3 2745.3 367.8 12636.5 2016.4 875.6 40393.3
EXPORTS
This week 333.1 150.4 15.7 2.5 0.6 106.1 56.1 92.5 782.2
Week ago 281.6 93.4 13.9 25.8 4.5 276.9 32.5 33.6 778.5
To date 15660.9 4344.2 1013.4 1227.1 340.1 8072.0 1732.9 1148.7 36263.2
Year ago 12973.2 4097.9 999.7 1290.4 312.1 6873.3 1938.8 358.8 28927.2
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This week 57.4 4.0 7.8 21.9 1.1 138.2 8.2 9.4 260.9
Week ago 75.8 27.2 7.2 23.4 2.4 144.3 9.2 8.0 311.0
To date 3078.5 508.1 213.4 1282.8 39.5 5946.5 152.9 526.7 12679.7
Year ago 3990.8 326.9 437.6 1721.7 56.2 5881.2 56.3 492.3 12993.3
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or 204-414-9084)
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Jul 11
Winnipeg–Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended July 9,
2014, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Week ended Cumulative Cumulative
2013/14 2012/13 2013/14 2012/13
Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Jul 09 155,146 6,477,751 6,357,097 24,359 1,469,940 1,462,990
Jul 02 151,779 6,322,605 6,241,397 36,130 1,445,581 1,434,676
Jun 25 152,085 6,170,826 6,125,340 15,028 1,409,451 1,408,584
Jun 18 112,195 6,018,741 6,002,413 14,937 1,394,423 1,380,575
Jun 11 114,572 5,906,546 5,899,544 17,333 1,379,486 1,354,279
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 87.0% 80.8% 83.5%
Soybeans 37.0% 48.8% 48.6%
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or
204-414-9084)
DAIRY
General Comments: US dairy prices were higher as support held on the charts. USDA isued neutral top positive estimates for dairy in its reports on Friday. Demand in general remains good, and Butter demand in particular remains very strong. Fluid Milk supply trends are becoming more mixed. Many processors are now drying the Milk as fluid demand at the retail level is dropping seasonally. Cash prices for Butter remain strong, while those for Cheese are mixed. Dry markets are steady. Demand for US products remains strong on the domestic side, and has been weaker in the export market. Prices throughout Southeast Asia and Oceana remain steady to weaker. New Zealand and Australia production has been more turning lower as the production season is winding down. European production remains strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2020, and 2010 August, and resistance is at 2070, 2085, and 2090 August. Trends in Cheese are down with no objectives. Support is at 193.50, 192.00, and 191.00 August, with resistance at 199.00, 203.00, and 206.00 August. Trends in Butter are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 210.00 August, and resistance is at 225.00, 229.00, and 234.00 August.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
MILK, Class III – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #052641 Open Interest is 45,849
: Positions
: 21,848 22,477 0 2,201 28 588 26 2,275 8,114 1,335 8,334
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: -3,475 -3,336 0 -357 -5 -170 26 -59 -1,394 -329 -1,908
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 47.7 49.0 0.0 4.8 0.1 1.3 0.1 5.0 17.7 2.9 18.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 81
: 37 32 0 . . 5 . . 21 8 25
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
NON FAT DRY MILK – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 44,000 LBS.)
CFTC Code #052642 Open Interest is 4,303
: Positions
: 2,258 1,418 0 0 0 3 0 175 681 2,083 186
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: -773 -158 -25 0 0 -3 0 -15 -31 -551 -36
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 52.5 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 15.8 48.4 4.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22
: 11 8 0 0 0 . 0 . . 7 6
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CME MILK IV – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #052644 Open Interest is 9,871
: Positions
: 2,324 5,830 0 185 0 17 0 329 6,045 263 533
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: -652 -1,320 0 -39 -13 9 0 -47 -1,292 -100 -263
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.5 59.1 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 61.2 2.7 5.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34
: 9 16 0 . 0 . 0 . 11 . 6
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHEESE (CASH-SETTLED) – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #063642 Open Interest is 14,624
: Positions
: 9,919 4,523 59 0 76 16 0 317 2,272 7,895 1,386
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: -587 -384 41 0 -2 7 0 73 -157 -559 -218
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 67.8 30.9 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 15.5 54.0 9.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 40
: 11 11 . 0 . . 0 . 13 9 10
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2014
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #050642 Open Interest is 7,063
: Positions
: 5,029 2,709 0 0 0 8 0 236 150 2,991 339
: Changes from: July 1, 2014
: -904 -732 0 0 0 0 0 -57 -195 -630 -75
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 71.2 38.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 2.1 42.3 4.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29
: 12 10 0 0 0 . 0 . 4 8 5
————————————————————————————————————–
Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Friday, July 11, 2014
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE A : $1.7350 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.7350
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.7250
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1142C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da
Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Friday, July 11, 2014
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.9875 : .0275
40# BLOCKS : $1.9700 : .0200
——————————————————————
SALES: 6 CARS BARRELS:
1 @ $1.9675, 1 @ $1.9700, 2 @ $1.9725, 1 @ $1.9750,
1 @ $1.9825
7 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
2 @ $1.9525, 1 @ $1.9625, 1 @ $1.9650, 1 @ $1.9750,
1 @ $1.9775, 1 @ $1.9725
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.9875
1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.9650
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.9700
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1140C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da
Daily Cash Butter Trading on Friday, July 11, 2014
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $2.3725 : -.0125
——————————————————————
SALES: 9 CARS GRADE AA:
2 @ $2.3400, 2 @ $2.3500, 3 @ $2.3600, 1 @ $2.3700,
1 @ $2.3725
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1144C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da
Midwest Weather Forecast: Some showers are posible today and this weekend, but a mostly dry week. Temperatures will average below normal.
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 68 Sep 146 Sep 55 Sep 79 August 50 August 200 August
August 65 Sep 145 Sep 60 Sep 70 August
September 108 Sep
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
July plus 190 Aug plus 28 Aug July
August plus 190 Aug plus 28 Aug plus 100 Sep August
September plus 100 Sep September
Canada, Malaysia, y Indonesia:
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul–a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul No Quote – Unquoted – -
Aug 777.50 -07.50 Unquoted – -
Sep 767.50 -05.00 Unquoted – -
Oct/Nov/Dec 752.50 -07.50 Unquoted – -
Jan/Feb/Mar 757.50 -07.50 Unquoted – -
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul No Quote – Unquoted – -
Aug 780.00 -07.50 Unquoted – -
Sep 770.00 -05.00 Unquoted – -
Oct/Nov/Dec 755.00 -07.50 Unquoted – -
Jan/Feb/Mar 760.00 -07.50 Unquoted – -
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 755.00 -15.00 Unquoted – -
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 750.00 -15.00 Unquoted – -
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,400 -60.00 Unquoted – -
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 195.00 -04.00 Unquoted – -
($1=MYR3.1802)
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