I’m the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic Books, and the IPPY Award-winning For Sale-American Paradise: How Americans Were Sold An Impossible Dream In Florida. I’ve also been writing about hurricanes for National Geographic News since 2003. I have friends in Florida who are about to go on a wild ride as Hurricane Matthew rips its way up the Florida east coast. I’m blogging from Wilmington, North Carolina, well away from the storm. I’m posting texts, video links, and other info from them for as long as conditions in Florida allow. The storm isn’t expected to start seriously affecting the state until later tonight. So check back often.
8:24 a.m.
Mike Melton, who’s texting me from Port St. Lucie, Florida, caught a few hours of sleep and has resumed texting, which follows below. Looks like things weren’t too bad there. Port St. Lucie is about 100 miles north of Miami on the east coast of the peninsula.
7:29 a.m.
“I slept from 2 a.m. until 7 a.m. Just went outside. Here’s what I just sent out. As of 7:15 a.m., it’s getting daylight. I just went out into the street, and there’s lots of green leaves laying about, like someone mowed the trees. Across the street there’s a section of wood board fence down and a large tree limb laying near it. the sky is completely filled with low gray clouds that are moving in the opposite direction from yesterday afternoon. Now they are moving from southwest to northeast. I did lose power sometime early this morning, looks like about 5 a.m. But it’s back on, and I’m grateful to have it. I’m staying put until later today and then I hope to check out my warehouse. Will keep you all posted but it looks like I’ll be fine from here on out.”
2:46 a.m.
Recently posted by Bob Henson at Weather Underground:
“What was always recognized as a possibility–that Matthew would never quite make landfall on the Florida coast–emerged as the most likely outcome on Thursday night, as reflected in the 11 pm NHC outlook. Matthew’s track out of the Bahamas was angled just far enough north of northwest to keep the center rolling more or less parallel to the Florida coast. Provided that Matthew carries out the gradual curve to the right expected late Friday through Saturday, its center will likely remain between about 20 and 50 miles off the coast, perhaps all the way to Charleston, SC, by Saturday night. This path would be enough to keep Matthew’s inner core and its top sustained winds offshore, which is very good news in terms of limiting the most severe wind damage. On the down side, Matthew’s outer eyewall–which will likely be packing streaks of 60 to 90 mph sustained winds–will probably edge onto or just inland from the coast early Friday. If Matthew’s center remains offshore as the hurricane churns north and northeast toward Georgia, then its outer eyewall may be slower to weaken. People along the Florida coast from around Melbourne northward can expect several hours of high wind on Friday, fierce enough at times to topple trees and power lines. If not catastrophic (thankfully!), such damage may end up being far more widespread on this type of coast-scraping path than it would have been with a hurricane slamming onshore at a right angle.
“Hurricane-force winds are possible as far north as coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina later on Friday, but the primary threat here will be high water–the most deadly aspect of U.S. hurricanes. Because of the gradual expansion of Matthew’s wind field, its direction of motion, and the largely concave geometry of the coastline, barrier islands and inlets from north FL to southern SC remain at risk of major storm surge even if Matthew remains offshore. Late Thursday night, NHC was projecting the potential for coastal inundations of 7 to 11 feet from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including parts of the St. Johns River between the coast and Jacksonville. Breaking waves of up to 20 – 25 feet are possible atop the coastal surge.
“Time and again in recent years, we’ve seen hurricanes weaken in terms of peak winds as they approach the coast, yet push far more water onshore than residents expected. This is one reason why the Saffir-Simpson scale no longer directly relates its strength categories to storm surge: peak winds near the center are an unreliable index to how much surge a hurricane may actually produce. Even if Matthew weakens and stays offshore as projected, surge levels in some areas (especially far north Florida and Georgia) may be the highest observed in many decades, and I fear that many coastal residents will underestimate this risk.
“Very heavy rainfall is the other water-related threat that still looms large with Matthew. Widespread totals in the 10” to 15” range are projected to fall within about 50 miles of the coast from far north Florida to southeast North Carolina (see Figure 5). The southeast half of the Carolinas can expect 3” to 10” amounts. This may be enough to cause extensive flooding, especially where 10” – 15” of rain has fallen in the last three weeks. With winds potentially gusting to 40 – 50 mph, we can expect extensive tree loss and power outages.
“If Matthew fails to make landfall on Friday, or if it does come ashore below Category 3 strength, the remarkable and unprecedented U.S. “drought” in major hurricane landfalls will continue. The last hurricane to strike the U.S. with Category 3 winds was Wilma, in October 2005–nearly 11 years ago.”
2:07 a.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
I’m afraid if that if there’s not much property loss, people will become jaded again, as the pre-storm hype far exceeds the storm itself. We got lucky here–the Bahamas and Haiti not so much.
2:06 a.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
Looks like we dodged a bullet here–seems like it’s starting to wind down a bit out there. I’m interested to see what it looks like once the sun comes up.
1:59 a.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
Hurricane tracks are a funny thing–the predictive models have gotten much better but are still just estimates. I distinctly remember being at a street celebration called Dancing in the Streets in Stuart, Florida, the town next to me, on a Saturday night in late August 1992. My buddies and I were discussing whether or not to buy plywood for the hurricane that was due to hit our area Monday morning. We were very cavalier about it, and it turned out we needed no preparations at all. Hurricane Andrew never turned north, but instead barreled into Miami and destroyed whole swaths of civilization. I drove through Miami and Homestead a month after Andrew, and could not recognize entire areas. The destruction was immense. We have learned much since then about building codes and construction that will survive such impacts, and about hurricane tracking but it is still as much art as it is science.
1:32 a.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
Trying to sleep but awake enough to keep listening to the winds. Unlike Hurricane Wilma, which I remember as a continuous dull roaring wind that went on for hours, Matthew is defined by gusting wind cycles, running up and down the gamut. It will blow hard, then slack off to almost silence, the ramp up to another strong gust. NPR radio just read off high wind gusts number from our area, and Jensen Beach was in the 50s, Port St. Lucie was in the 60s, and Vero Beach was highest with 70 mph. So far no 100 mph-plus winds four miles inland. The eye is now north of my latitude so I expect that we have seen the worst pass by us. I’m still surprised–and pleased–to have power. It’s the little things, lol.
12:41 a.m.
Jeremy Efron in Lantana, Florida left a message for Hurricane Matthew as he boarded up his business Thursday. Photo by Eliot Kleinberg, Palm Beach Post.
12:30 a.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
“The radio just said the eye is 45 miles offshore at Port St. Lucie, where I’m located. But I heard on NPR yesterday that the storm is the size of the state of
Arizona, so areas 100 miles northwest of me will be affected as the storm passes by the state.”
12:08 a.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
“It’s 11:45 p.m., just before midnight, and the wind has picked up considerably. Not consistent, but very gusty. Much like the sound of pounding surf, where you get regular booms as the waves hit shore. I poked my head out the front door, and there’s no evidence of high water yet, and no torrential rain, but short squall bursts. The trees are swaying, but it’s hard to see anything else out there. Have had power continuously, but with the wind I would expect to lose it at some point. I have lived here for 30 years, so I have seen the effect of Frances (I was out of town when she hit) and Jeanne in 2004 (I went to my Mom’s on the west coast of Florida) and I stayed in the house for Wilma in 2005. This is no worse than Wilma, so far. But it’s definitely a serious storm, and there will be property damage. I think I’m going back to bed.”
Palm Beach Post reports that more than 41,000 people in Palm Beach County are now without power, and almost 95,000 in Florida have lost electricity, citing reports from Florida Power and Light.
10:06 p.m.
Stepping away from the computer for a quick nap before Matthew’s expected Florida landfall in a few hours.
9:51 p.m.
A woman in Haiti stands on the porch of what remains of her home. Hurricane Matthew began its rampage in the Caribbean by blasting Haiti and Cuba before entering the Bahamas. Photo from the Weather Channel website, credit Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images.
9:28 p.m.
Weather Underground has a new post saying that Hurricane Matthew has been “an extremely difficult storm to forecast,” and was undergoing some “extremely complicated and rapid changes” earlier today.
It’s not unusual for very powerful hurricanes to undergo what’s known as an eyewall replacement cycle. My layman’s explanation of that phenomenon is that the storm has become so powerful that it’s producing a new eyewall around the old one. Weather Underground says that Matthew may be undergoing that phenomenon at the moment. When that happens, it disrupts the storm’s momentum and it loses strength for a while.
At the same time, however, the storm crossed the warm waters of the Gulf Stream a few hours ago, and may have gotten a shot of energy from that.
8:58 p.m.
As of about 8 p.m., the eye of Matthew was about 75 miles offshore from West Palm Beach. This post from Eliot Kleinberg and Sonja Isger at the Palm Beach Post, posted at 8:40 p.m.:
“The evening continued to look more promising for Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast as Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center told Palm Beach Post news partner WPTV-Channel 5. ‘Let’s hope that the core remains offshore. We think it will,’ Ed Rappaport said around 8:30 p.m. ‘We’ve got more concern as it goes farther north.’ Rappaport said hurricane force winds are possible later tonight for the northern part of the Treasure Coast. Asked about models that show the storm looping back around and again threatening South Florida, Rappaport said, “It’s unlikely. Yes, we do have a forecast that has it come back to the south but storms that move to the south have weakened and weakened significantly.”
The hurricane’s “core,” or its eye, contains the storm’s strongest winds. If Matthew’s eye stays offshore from West Palm Beach, that means that area will be spared the worst effects of the storm.
8:17 p.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
“Wind gusts are picking up in strength. Friends of mine located about 10 miles from me have lost power already due to a blown transformer. I’m taking a quick nap since I’m not sure I’ll get much sleep later on.”
8:11 p.m.
WLRN in Miami reports that US Coast Guard ships and Bahamian warships have escaped Hurricane Matthew’s fierce power in Key West. The city’s harbor can easily handle deep-draft ships. Thanks Anna Costello for posting this.
7:59 p.m.
Weather Underground‘s Jeff Masters has this unsettling comment in a story by Reuters:
“If Matthew does make landfall along the Florida coast, this (Cape Canaveral) would be the most likely spot for it. Billions of dollars of facilities and equipment are at risk at Kennedy Space Center and nearby bases, which have never before experienced a major hurricane.”
The storm’s winds are expected to be around 145 mph or better when it reaches Cape Canaveral tomorrow.
7:51 p.m.
From Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie:
“It’s getting windier but still not much rain. I’m thinking I’ll take a nap now because I have a feeling I won’t be getting much sleep later on tonight. I’ll text you in a couple of hours or if something significant happens.”
7:44 p.m.
John Miglis sends this update from Saint Augustine Beach:
“The beach is a ghost town. Like the guy said who was plunging from the Empire State Building, ‘So far, so good.’ ”
7:07 p.m.
A video update from TropMet‘s Michael Laca at Orchid Island near Vero Beach.
6:36 p.m.
Mike Melton in Port St. Lucie reported this earlier today:
“This is a serious storm, with projected ocean surge of up to 9 feet, which will put some places of our barrier island completely underwater. Winds are forecast for 145 mph, which will cause significant property damage. I’m hunkered down in a concrete block house with hurricane shutters all around about 4 miles inland from the ocean. So far it’s just watch and wait.”
5:59 p.m.
Author and screenwriter John Miglis and his wife Diane are riding out the storm in Saint Augustine Beach. John says he’s finishing a martini and they’re settling down to a steak dinner. They expect the worst late tomorrow morning and he’ll report in then if conditions allow.
5:33 p.m.
Matthew isn’t expected to draw near to the Florida coast until after midnight. Here’s the Weather Underground graphic of the latest forecast:
5:21 p.m.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson at Weather Underground have posted this update on Hurricane Matthew:
“Hurricane Matthew is once again an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm. Matthew’s top sustained winds were upgraded to 140 mph in the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, based on surface wind data collected by dropsondes (parachute-borne instrument packages) and the SFMR radiometer aboard Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Matthew’s central pressure dropped more than 12 millibars overnight, and a jump in surface winds typically follows such a drop after 12-24 hours. Hurricane Warnings are now in place from Broward County, Florida, to Ediston Beach, South Carolina. As of 2 pm EDT Thursday, Matthew’s sustained winds were holding at 140 mph, with the storm located about 125 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.”
5:06 p.m.
My old friend Alan Snel called a few minutes ago. Al has boarded up his house in Vero Beach and is heading across the state on Florida State Highway 60 to ride it out with friends in Tampa. I remember that stretch of road well. Al says there was a major traffic jam at SR 60’s intersection with Florida’s Turnpike at what once was called Yeehaw Junction as evacuees get out of harm’s way. Friends of Al’s will be glad to know that his aged but feisty pal, Pugsy the pug, is with him. The photo shows Al’s house in Vero Beach, which is expected to get some very fierce winds from Matthew.
4 p.m.
The storm is approaching the edge of the Bahamas now, expected to make its nearest pass to Miami later tonight. This video by Michael Laca of TropMet was posted on Facebook about 30 minutes ago. Michael is chasing the storm and shot this video at Orchid Isle near Vero Beach.
:Mike Melton is an old friend in Port St. Lucie, about 40 miles up the coast from West Palm Beach and about 30 miles south of Vero Beach. Here’s a text from Mike a few minutes ago:
“It’s 4 pm, and no rain since the first couple of rain bands passed through about 1 pm. Temp is mild, wind is breezy, lots of gray clouds. But the clouds are coming in from the east, and moving east to southeast, which is a very unusual direction for the wind here. Media is really pushing evacuation, which makes me doubt the wisdom of staying put. But the structure I’m in was built after the last set of building codes, so it’s designed to withstand such a storm. And the hurricane panels cover every opening, the roof has no big overhangs to catch the wind. We shall see. Sometimes the waiting is the hardest part.”
Matthew is expected to touch land at or near Cape Canaveral around 8 a.m. tomorrow morning.
Will update as info comes in. Stay tuned.
Listen to author Willie Drye discuss his IPPY Award-winning book, For Sale-American Paradise, with host Frank Stasio on WUNC radio’s “The State of Things,” and with Joseph Cooper on WLRN’s “Topical Currents.”