Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.
The first weekend of Barclays Premier League action very much reflected a league of fertile depth and quality. Only Chelsea and City won by two clear goals, highlighting a fiercely cagey and competitive start. Chelsea’s first half display at Turf Moor bristled with a kinetic swagger that already seems to be redefining Mourinho’s more stygian approach from last season. United’s ‘Dutch Revolution’ started in total disarray with a poor home defeat to Swansea City. Louis Van Gaal has subsequently labelled the result as devastating to his side’s confidence, hardly the sort of response one would expect from a managerial mastermind. This weekend has some mouth-watering match-ups of league power, none more viscerally appealing than the battle at the Etihad on Monday night. Manuel Pellegrini’s champions face a Suarez-less Liverpool in an early season potboiler that will finally exorcise the warm afterglow of the FIFA World Cup, reminding the world of the intoxicating complexity of the Barclays Premier League.
Paul Lambert’s Aston Villa had an encouraging opening day win with an Weimann winner that underlined a potential sea change at Villa Park. Even without the injured Benteke, Villa were powerful and had the stable presence of Guzan in goal to back them up. Newcastle were actually quite dynamic against City, with new players such as Ayoze sparkling in every department except the scoring one. This should be an interesting clash, as Newcastle really impressed me with their new array of talent and quick counterattacking. Newcastle by one at 18/10.
The Foxes were belligerent against Everton and will not be overawed by travelling to the mighty Blues of London. Wood’s last gasp equalizer was no more than Leicester deserved and served to underline the reason they cantered towards Championship supremacy last season. But the task that awaits them this week seems to be a far more complex affair. Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas were tremendous against Burnley, while the interlocking midfield dynamism was at times Barcelona-esque. The hullabaloo surrounding Courtois and Cech may be the predominant sound-bite coming out of Stamford Bridge this week, but that should not detract Chelsea from easily overcoming Leicester with their intricacy and new found potency. I’m looking for over 2.5 goals to be scored at 5/10.
The situation at Crystal Palace has just about taken on farcical dimensions. It’s amazing that this board could agree upon a meeting time. First, Pulis gets fired over financial constraints, leaving trusty Keith Millen in the caretaker coach role. Then, good old boy Malky Mackay is seemingly set in stone as the new manager of Palace, completing a full circle transformation for the Welsh manager eschewed by the megalomaniacal Vincent Tan last season. But alas, further disagreement over backroom staff has left the Eagles without a manager and seemingly without a clue of how to conduct business in this league. Sam Allardyce’s West Ham side were really rather poor considering the fact that they had a one man advantage for some time against Spurs. Noble’s penalty miss was compounded by undercooked performances by both Downing and Nolan. New signing Kouyate was also underwhelming. I’m going to go for the bold 0-0 here, seeing as both sides seem incapable of taking the initiative. The correct score is available at 13/2 but for those less adventurous, under 2.5 goals at 5/10 looks a certainty.
Dier’s cliffhanger winner for Tottenham polished what was quite an insipid performance from the North London side. Adebayor looked disinterested and Harry Kane made a fantastic argument for his inclusion in this second consecutive London derby. Erik Lamela was also disappointing, once again highlighting the awful decisions made by Spurs in last season’s ill-fated transfer window. This match obviously carries huge emotional resonance for the returning Harry Redknapp. He will be emboldened by the signing of Dutch international Leroy Fer, which adds further solidity to a QPR side who carry considerable goal scoring threat in Zamora and Remy. I expect Harry’s men to make a great fist of it and potentially score a surprise away win. This is just a gut instinct call, largely informed by Harry’s intimate knowledge of the club. The smart bet is the Away/Draw Double Chance at 15/10.
Southampton, absolutely devastated by the transfer window, were surprisingly resilient against Liverpool, no doubt owing much to the wonderful footballing acumen of Ronald Koeman. They should have probably buried the game several times, especially through the free header afforded to new signing Shane Long. Speaking of Shane Long, his former club was quite free-flowing against Sunderland and will be hoping for a repeat this week under new manager Alan Irving. Southampton did the double over West Brom last season and should have enough confidence from their Anfield excursion to pick up their first points of the season, priced at at 17/20. Watch out for Ward-Prowse’s absolutely wicked dead-ball deliveries.
Swansea City’s Herculean efforts at Old Trafford last week have given hope to the Welsh side that a predicted slump this season may be curtailed. Gylfi Sigurdsson provided the injection of class that overwhelmed United last week while Ki Sung Yeung was clinical in front of goal. Sean Dyche experienced the entire spectrum of managerial emotions last week: elation, after they took the lead; devastation, when Chelsea hit back so quickly; and finally relief that his side managed to stop the bleeding following Chelsea’s comeback. Burnley looked fairly organised in the second half but that may well just be an expression of Mourinho’s defensive outset. Swansea should ride the crest of the wave created last week and sneak a precious second consecutive victory at 13/20.
This match will really test the budding title credentials of an Arsenal side always on the verge of finding that magical formula. Alexis Sanchez has offered some industry to the side while Mathieu Debuchy will still take some time to acclimatise in the right full-back role. Everton were matched blow for blow by newly promoted Leicester City and will be hoping for a more complete performance from their settled squad. McGeady was excellent while Lukaku failed to really impress himself upon the game. Baines and Pienaar successfully rekindled their almost telepathic understanding, which will definitely threaten the right-hand side policed by Debuchy. For that reason, I’m going to go for a credible draw for both sides at 9/4.
Hull City have been rocked by the six-month injury lay-off of Robert Snodgrass. It soured their opening day victory over QPR and will be of grave concern to Steve Bruce. The performance of Tom Ince will have been encouraging and Bruce will be fancying his chances against a low Stoke side. A few seasons back, under Tony Pulis, Stoke started the season with the best home form throughout all of Europe. Their opening day defeat to Villa reflected that the Stoke formula may have become somewhat staid. Crouch and Walters are easy enough to control if properly organized, while the likes of Adam and N’Zonzi are always likely to throw themselves into red-card territory. I expect Hull to mount more pressure on a Mark Hughes side looking for some inspiration. Grab Hull at 27/20.
Sunderland would have been desperately unlucky to have come away with nothing against West Brom. Lee Catermole’s early cracker had been offset by some West Brom resistance and an awful penalty decision to boot. West Brom probably bossed the tempo of the match, but Poyet’s side showed great spirit and justifiably equalised through Larsson. What of Manchester United? Their side just doesn’t seem to possess the right balance yet, despite an excellent performance from a streamlined Wayne Rooney. The signing of Rojo will hopefully bolster their defensive cohesion, but it is in the wide areas that they currently lack bite. Herrera and Mata enjoy playing narrow and they really need an Angel Di Maria type player in order for this new system to work. Sunderland should do enough to heap some more pressure on Louis Van Gaal. Back the draw at 5/2.
Liverpool overcame multiple frights from an inspired Southampton to win their opening day fixture. Without Suarez, the sheer demonic pace of Raheem Sterling seems to be their only really devastating attacking tool. Manchester City seemed slightly lethargic on Tyneside, Yaya Toure’s fitness never seemed quite there while Newcastle were allowed to make multiple incursions into the City half towards the end. City will have been buoyed by Aguero and Jovetic, as well as the defensive qualities of Fernando. City won’t find it easy to break Liverpool down, but I just don’t see Liverpool as being capable of unlocking the champions without l’enfant terrible Suarez. City at 8/10 is where your money should go.
The man knows his football, but even he gets it wrong from time to time. Feel free to share your EPL tips and multiples below.