Ahead of a potentially defining week in terms of the Premier League title race, it seems an opportune time to put the top six through their paces.
The gap between the front-runners and the rest of the division has rarely been so pronounced. If Chelsea can successfully negotiate their next two league matches—away at Liverpool on Tuesday and then at home to Arsenal on Saturday—there could be similar daylight between Antonio Conte's side and the chasing pack.
On Saturday, we gave Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool the once-over, with Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur now put under the spotlight.
Manchester City (5th, 43 points)
The iconic American filmmaker Orson Welles once said that "a good artist should be isolated. If he isn't isolated, something is wrong."
There have been times this season when Pep Guardiola has looked so isolated he would qualify for his own postcode.
The last thing Guardiola wants to be is the story. His Manchester City side is nowhere near the level expected for him not to be.
Over 22 Premier League matches in which City have veered from being spellbindingly brilliant to godawful and all points in between, it is Guardiola who has emerged as the most captivating figure.
His post-match interviews are as uncomfortable as his goalkeeper, Claudio Bravo. He loathes the attention but can't help inviting it by inadvertently being so watchable. When the awkward mannerisms surface, there's a little of the Woody Allen neurosis about him, except there's nothing self-effacing about his panoply of afflictions. They're all real.
It wasn't supposed to be like this. As a football club, Manchester City were ready for Guardiola. Maybe it was the players who weren't.
From the moment ex-Barcelona executives Txiki Begiristain and Ferran Soriano were lured to Manchester in 2012, as sporting director and chief executive officer respectively, it was always a case of when not if Guardiola would join them. The pillows have been plumped in anticipation for years.
A summer spend of approximately £145 million was the most of any club in European football, though the number being cited most readily in the early part of the season was 10: the number of matches City won on the spin. Barcelona-lite perhaps. Beautiful on the eye nonetheless. Jose Mourinho's psychiatry bill must have been through the roof in those first few months.
A 3-3 draw against Celtic in the Champions League was when the run was curtailed. Celtic coach Brendan Rodgers set his side up to press just as ferociously and high up the pitch as City. It seemed obvious. Previously, the game plan employed by most of City's opponents had been to sit deep and allow Guardiola's side to play possession football in front of them. The results speak for themselves.
Rodgers' blueprint has rarely been deviated from since. City's draw against Celtic was followed by a Premier League defeat at Tottenham Hotspur. The boundless energy levels demonstrated by Mauricio Pochettino's side made City look leggy in comparison. Old, even.
They have never recovered. Since winning their first 10 matches of the season, City have won just 10 of their past 25 in all competitions. In terms of the Premier League, just seven more points (25) have been accrued from City's last 16 matches than were won from the first six (18).
Guardiola is an astute man. He will have known it was always unlikely he would dominate English football with City in the way he did Spain and Germany with Barcelona and Bayern Munich respectively. That's not a comment on the strength of the Premier League—more an observation of City's place therein.
Still, after six titles in seven seasons, Guardiola could be forgiven for thinking it might not have been quite so hard. Even his biggest detractors will be surprised that City are 12 points behind Chelsea and outside of the Champions League places in fifth.
He is used to breaking records, but not of the variety he's setting at City. In his previous seven seasons as a manager, he has never lost as many league games in a single term as the five he has at City in 22 matches. The 4-0 loss at Everton was the heaviest league defeat of his managerial career.
Football's nauseating, if tempting to all but the truly restrained, predilection to draw conclusions too quickly tends to adhere to an odd idea that if something is not perfect, it is in some way a disaster. Works in progress and the middle ground have no place at the top table. Guardiola has spent much of the campaign fending off what Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp may well have coming his way.
Yet were it not for Chelsea's unexpectedly relentlessly good campaign, we would be discussing one of the most open and evenly matched title races in years.
Instead, the best of the rest are dissected with a doctor's disdain for a patient who hasn't looked after himself.
City's 3-0 defeat of Crystal Palace in the FA Cup fourth round on Saturday had Guardiola declaring a front three of Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus as "the future for Manchester City," per Stuart Brennan of the Manchester Evening News. It's an exciting thought, but being tickled about City's alternative attacking options is like purring over a car's sound system when it doesn't have any wheels.
City's defence is wretched.
It's a good job City have so much of the ball; when they don't, it looks like they might concede every time their opponents venture over the halfway line. It's a nonsense to say Guardiola sides can't defend, but there was an almost amateurish naivety to the way City failed to protect a two-goal lead against Tottenham in their most recent league game. No one, probably not even Guardiola, was surprised.
The return of Vincent Kompany on Saturday against Palace could be a huge fillip if City's captain can stay fit between now and the campaign's close. Few ifs are bigger.
Spending the best part of £120 million on John Stones, Nicolas Otamendi and Eliaquim Mangala in trying to find someone in the Belgian's class is perhaps the biggest blot on Begiristain's copybook. It's marginally ahead of the lack of foresight shown in failing to plan for the fact all of City's fullbacks are the wrong side of 30.
Since Begiristain arrived at the club, he has overseen an outlay of around £500 million on new players. It might have been an idea to have budgeted to upgrade on Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Gael Clichy and Aleksandar Kolarov.
There's little argument Guardiola inherited a lopsided squad, but some issues are of his own volition.
Few players have had as many column inches dedicated to them as Bravo, who has conceded 16 of the last 24 shots he has faced on target. It's a bit like Brexit or Donald Trump in that so many people find the situation barely believable. It was George Orwell who said that "there are some ideas so wrong that only a very intelligent person could believe in them."
Yet the decisive vote has already been cast. Guardiola's mind has been made up. He would be wise perhaps to get on to Trump's builder before the end of the transfer window and get a quote for knocking up a wall around the Chilean.
Guardiola will look at City's next five Premier League fixtures and be acutely aware there is no margin for error. Away games against West Ham United, Bournemouth and Sunderland will pose the odd awkward question, but home matches against Swansea City and Stoke City should be negotiated with minimal fuss.
After that comes a run of three matches that will surely go a long way toward shaping City's season. First up are Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium before Guardiola takes his side to Arsenal on Saturday April 1 and then to Chelsea the following Wednesday.
If they can return from Stamford Bridge still in the leading pack, City's run-in thereafter looks arguably the easiest of any of the top six. The postponed Manchester derby needs to be rearranged, but otherwise after the Chelsea game, the highest-placed side City will face in their remaining seven matches is West Bromwich Albion in eighth.
It is not unfeasible that City could end the season as they started it. And if they do, there's an outside chance they wouldn't be a million miles away from the title.
Unlikely, but one hardly has to cast the mind too far back to accept it's more than possible.
Position and points after 22 matches last season: Third, 43 points (same)
League form last six matches: WWLWLD
Next six matches: West Ham United (a), Swansea City (h), Bournemouth (a), Sunderland (a), Stoke City (h), Liverpool (h)
Final three matches: Crystal Palace (h), Leicester City (h), Watford (a)
Matches left against top six (four in total): Liverpool (h) March 19, Arsenal (a) April 1, Chelsea (a) April 5, Manchester United (h) TBC
Players in the physio room (two): Sergio Aguero (knock), Ilkay Gundogan (knee)
Player they most need to stay out of the physio room: Kevin De Bruyne
Manchester United (6th, 41 points)
It's been quite the turnaround for Mourinho and Manchester United.
Having spent the first half of the campaign looking so miserable that Manchester's weather complained to the council that he was making the drizzle feel depressed, Mourinho—like his side—has come to life, courtesy of a 17-match unbeaten run that came to an end at Hull City in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, even if he wasn't having any of it.
The same people who questioned whether the Portuguese had become antiquated in his methods, amid a sea of innovative new coaches who have flooded the Premier League in recent years, are championing the wiliest old fox in town. Jose's back in vogue after a period in which he was fast becoming the managerial equivalent of the boot-cut jean.
Guardiola will look across the road and wonder whether his bete noire has done a number on him. Relations between the pair in Spain were fractious to the point of being unpleasant, even for those of us who love nothing more than a curtain twitch. They have remained cordial, if at arm's length, in Manchester. It's as though both have accepted their jobs are too big to worry about one another.
Yet City's manager must wonder quite how it's accelerated to the stage that he's regularly waking up to "Fraudiola" headlines while Mourinho is feted as Sir Alex Ferguson's true heir after two false dawns under David Moyes and Louis van Gaal.
It's almost as though City aren't two points and a place above their neighbours. Cut out the Premier League table from the back pages of most British newspapers, and the average reader would likely assume City were staring up at their rivals.
It also seems to have been forgotten both managers inherited teams that finished on the same number of points last season and won a domestic cup each. Neither was exactly frugal over the summer, either.
Manchester United playing decent football again while Mourinho provided good copy was always likely to curry favour with the British press. On the back of a week in which he has relished dishing out sly, knowingly sanctimonious digs at both Arsene Wenger and Klopp, it's clear he is enjoying himself again.
In this form, let's not rule out one of Mourinho's peers aping Guardiola's infamous rant back in 2011 when ahead of El Clasico, which Barcelona won 5-0, he snapped, per Sid Lowe of the Guardian: "In this room (Real Madrid's press room),[Mourinho] is the chief, the f--king man. In here, he is the f--king man, and I can't compete with him."
Few can, Pep. Few can. And that's why he's just what Manchester United needed to wake them up from the hibernation of the Van Gaal years. Even at his most self-indulgent, at least he keeps an audience awake.
Winning the EFL Cup would be a godsend for Mourinho. He won it in his first season at Chelsea, 2004/05, courtesy of a 3-2 victory over Liverpool after extra time. Only those who have never won one underestimate just how important that first trophy is at a football club. There's a similar sense this group of United players, unlike their predecessors, needs a taste of what it's like to win silverware regularly.
"We now have the first title and almost for sure we will have the second one—and the second one will be the big one," Mourinho said post-match in 2005, per The Independent. "I'm very happy to win. It's important for the fans, for the club and especially for the players. It's very difficult to win for the first time, and for these players, it is the first time. So it is important."
After initial suspicions among United fans over whether Mourinho would play the "right" kind of football, he does seem to have the vast majority in his corner. A lack of goals, unquestionably United's Achilles' heel all season, has been more due to profligacy than a lack of attacking intent.
The 1-1 draw at Stoke City in United's latest league game is a case in point. Though far from at their most fluid, the away side dominated the game, yet it ended in a stalemate—and only then via Wayne Rooney's record-breaking, stoppage-time leveller. In two games against Stoke this season, a pair of 1-1 draws, United have scored two goals despite having 49 shots.
Similarly, the eight games United have drawn this season is the joint-highest in the Premier League alongside Middlesbrough. Mourinho would claim United were value for wins in the majority of them. I'd wager a season of Thursday night football that all of his rival managers would say exactly the same of their sides.
It doesn't take Rinus Michels to work out what the problem is. No side in the top six has scored fewer goals than United. A haul of just 33 to date is a great big neon flashing light above the major problem at Old Trafford. City have scored the next fewest but have still managed 43, while Chelsea (47), Arsenal (50), Tottenham (45) and Liverpool (51) are streaks ahead in the scoring stakes.
The one major plus in an attacking sense is that Zlatan Ibrahimovic has proved to be a revelation. His 14 Premier League goals (19 in all competitions) tell only part of the story.
Manchester United have lacked both an identity and leaders from the moment Ferguson left the dugout in 2013. On the field, Ibrahimovic's stature is obvious. At times, it's possible to imagine the Swede as a statue given his movement is so economical. His influence off the field is arguably as important.
The noise coming out of Old Trafford is that he has become the venerated senior figure everyone else looks up to. Other than Rooney and Michael Carrick, there's been a void in recent years of seasoned pros at United. The likes of Patrice Evra, Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand were big characters as well as being big players. Mourinho is the only manager since Ferguson to have tried to replace them.
It was reported recently by James Ducker of the Telegraph that Ibrahimovic has had a quiet word with Anthony Martial, to urge him to listen less to his representatives and more to his manager. Those not won over by Mourinho would argue a manager better at dealing with young players wouldn't need a go-between, with Marcus Rashford's similar stunted development another bone of contention.
How Mourinho has handled Luke Shaw's seemingly fragile confidence and his treatment of fan favourite Henrikh Mkhitaryan earlier in the season have not sat well with everyone, either.
The next six matches could be key to United's season. Games against Hull City (h), Leicester City (a), Watford (h), Bournemouth (h), Southampton (a) and Middlesbrough (a) represent a glorious opportunity to go on another winning run. They need to given it will almost certainly be a tight run-in.
Mourinho will not want to go into the final three matches, encompassing away days at Arsenal and Tottenham, playing catch-up for a Champions League place.
Whether mesmerized by Mourinho or nauseated by him, there's little doubt this is a much better United side than the one he inherited. It should be given the money he has spent, but football isn't always as simple as that.
Paul Pogba still alternates from sublime to ridiculous on a minute-by-minute basis, but few United supporters would sell him back for the same price they paid Juventus, such is his latent potential. Mkhitaryan (eventually), Ibrahimovic and Eric Bailly have all proved big hits.
United can still be too laboured in their approach, but unlike under either of his predecessors, there's a real sense of what Mourinho is trying to do with this team.
Though far from perfect, it has an identity—and that identity is Mourinho's.
Position and points after 22 matches last season: Fifth, 37 points (plus-four-point swing)
League form last six matches: WWWWDD
Next six matches: Hull City (h), Leicester City (a), Watford (h), Bournemouth (h), Southampton (a), Middlesbrough (a)
Final three matches: Arsenal (a), Tottenham Hotspur (a), Crystal Palace (h)
Matches left against top six (four in total): Chelsea (h) April 15, Arsenal (a) May 6, Tottenham (a) May 13, Manchester City (a) TBC
Players in the physio room (one): James Wilson (knee)
Player they most need to stay out of the physio room: Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Tottenham Hotspur (3rd, 46 points)
There's something tranquil about Tottenham these days. In a Premier League all about noise and hyperbole, they seem to be getting an awful lot done without saying too much, accruing 46 points with the gentle ease of a kid collecting conkers.
Chairman Daniel Levy tends to collect new contracts signed by his team's best players without an accompanying fanfare. It's remarkable, not to mention refreshing, just how easily Tottenham seem to have convinced some of the most talented players in the Premier League to commit to the club. Even more when you consider it's been done without the usual unedifying white noise of agents causing mischief in the background.
Captain Hugo Lloris, talisman Harry Kane and arguably the best young player in Europe, Dele Alli, have joined Christian Eriksen, Kyle Walker, Jan Vertonghen and Eric Dier in committing their long-term futures.
Kane insists it was a no-brainer, and it's hard to disagree with his reasoning.
"I would be surprised if any of my team-mates were to leave now," he said, per Darren Lewis of the Mirror. "Something's going on here. We're just missing that last step—to win trophies. It would be stupid to leave now."
He continued: "We have one of the best managers in the world, perhaps the best. Soon there will be a new stadium. The future is promising."
A capacity increase from just over 36,000 to 61,000 when they move into their new £750 million stadium for the start of the 2018-19 season will ensure manager Pochettino will almost certainly be armed with transfer funds befitting of a serious title contender.
Whether he'd choose to spend it is debatable. He tends to solve problems on the training field rather than via his chairman's chequebook. The performances of £30 million signing Moussa Sissoko will hardly encourage him to spend a similar amount anytime soon.
Pochettino cannot get enough credit, though. He has that rare gift of being in absolute control yet seemingly approachable at the same time. You can see it in the way his players interact with him. You can see it in the way his team plays.
They manage to be concurrently open and closed, expansive when going forward and rigidly disciplined when out of possession. Finding the perfect balance is one of the hardest things to do in football.
Whether playing three at the back or having a back four that sees Dier drop in to form a three whenever Danny Rose and Walker bomb on—or even moving between the two systems, as they did at Manchester City through necessity—rare is it that Spurs don't look drilled to within an inch of their life.
The problem with anything so finely tuned is that the slightest disruption can send everything out of kilter. An off-the-pace Kevin Wimmer in for the injured Vertonghen at City could not have been more conspicuous had he taken to the field wearing a bear suit. For the most part, Spurs looked slipshod at the back, with even the usually unflappable Lloris affected, as he made as many mistakes as he probably has during the rest of his time in north London.
Credit can be given for the manner they rescued a point from being two goals down without playing particularly well, but it does raise questions about whether they can cope when key players are missing.
Having the stingiest of defences is the bedrock Spurs' title tilt is built on. They have conceded just 16 goals, which is 12 fewer than Manchester City, 11 fewer than Liverpool, seven fewer than Arsenal and five fewer than Manchester United. Only Chelsea can boast a meaner back line and only by one goal.
Pochettino is in his third season at White Hart Lane, and this Tottenham team is peaking. Uniquely, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United are all in their first full seasons under a new coach, and other than the glorious anomaly that is Conte's transformative work in west London, it's been evident.
Liverpool, in what to all extents and purposes is Klopp's second term at Anfield, appeared to be much further on than either Manchester club in terms of having a side that looked cohesive as opposed to just gifted. A dry January on Merseyside that would drive a teetotaler to drink has seemingly put paid to that notion.
It's hard to imagine Tottenham coming unstuck in the manner Liverpool have done since the turn of the year. It's certainly possible, as their run of one win in 10 earlier in the season demonstrated. An overreliance on Kane's goals came to the fore during the period he was sidelined with injury. A Champions League exit at the group stage was fairly inglorious too, but the overriding sense when watching Spurs is there's precious little that's "Spursy" about them.
It's over 18 months now that they have been playing football of a title-winning calibre, and they have not been too far off in terms of points accumulated, either.
Since the start of last season, they have lost just eight league games, with just two of those defeats coming this term. Chelsea and Manchester United are the only sides to have taken maximum hauls off them, and it's worth pointing out that Spurs have only three games left against fellow members of the top six—the fewest of any of those in the breakaway pack.
The one obvious Achilles' heel is the depth of their squad. It's probably on a par with Liverpool's but looks shallow compared to the rest of the top six. Vincent Janssen is a trier, but contrary to the old saying, it doesn't look like God loves him.
To watch the impact Gabriel Jesus has made in his first few matches for Manchester City, or consider a scenario in which Ibrahimovic gets injured and Manchester United could call on any of Rooney, Rashford or Martial, it's easy to see why there are those who doubt whether Tottenham will have enough to last the distance. What they would give to have Danny Welbeck, Michy Batshuayi or Daniel Sturridge in reserve.
The manner of Spurs' performance against Wycombe Wanderers in the FA Cup on Saturday, when they squeezed through 4-3, having made nine changes, does not suggest there are many on the periphery pushing too hard to dislodge those in Pochettino's first-choice starting XI.
To make up nine points in 16 matches is far from impossible, but it would take a strong stomach to wager life savings on Tottenham doing it this season.
No one would probably notice if they did. And that's just how Pochettino and his players like it.
Position and points after 22 matches last season: Fourth, 39 points (plus-seven-point swing)
League form last six matches: WWWWWD
Next six matches: Sunderland (a), Middlesbrough (h), Liverpool (a), Stoke City (h), Everton (h), Crystal Palace (a)
Final three matches: West Ham United (a), Manchester United (h), Hull City (a)
Matches left against top six (three in total): Liverpool (a) Feb 11, Arsenal (h) April 29, Manchester United (h) May 13
Players in the physio room (seven): Kieran Trippier (knock), Georges-Kevin Nkoudou (knee), Toby Alderweireld (hamstring), Danny Rose (knee), Harry Kane (groin), Jan Vertonghen (ankle), Erik Lamela (hip)
Player they most need to stay out of the physio room: Harry Kane
All injury data taken from PhysioRoom.com and correct as of Jan 29.