An NFL postseason that has seen eight of 10 games finish with deficits of 13 or more points will hopefully conclude with a thrilling Super Bowl as the New England Patriots face the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, February 5 at 6:30 p.m. ET in Houston's NRG Stadium. The game will be televised on Fox.
Some early Super Bowl odds have been released. Let's break them down.
Picks Against the Spread, Picks Straight-Up and Money Breakdowns
According to OddsShark, New England is a three-point favorite over Atlanta. That means New England must win by four or more points for Pats bettors and Atlanta must win outright or lose by no more than two for Falcons backers. A three-point game ends in a draw.
Most sportsbooks are offering both sides of the spread at -110, which means one must wager $110 to win $100.
Furthermore, folks have the option of betting on the moneyline, which means picking the winner outright. Per OddsShark, New England is a -150 favorite straight-up, which means bettors would win $100 if they wagered $150. Atlanta is a +130 underdog, so backers would profit $130 by betting $100.
Analysis
With all due respect to the Falcons, jump all over the Patriots at minus-three before the spread climbs any higher.
Atlanta is playing excellent football, and it just crushed a Green Bay Packers team folks thought was destined for the Super Bowl with the way quarterback Aaron Rodgers had performed, but this team isn't battle-tested in the postseason like the Patriots, who have made the playoffs every year but two since 2001 and participated in seven Super Bowls this century.
Furthermore, New England is angry and motivated after the Deflategate punishments handed down by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. Team owner Robert Kraft didn't exactly hide his feelings when accepting the AFC Championship trophy on the postgame platform:
Lastly, the Pats are just an excellent football team and had an edge over the rest of the NFL all year. Head of Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz, in a column discussing the website's final regular-season rankings, highlighted as much: "They end the season with a comfortable lead over the rest of the league, with 25.3 per cent DVOA and 34.0 per cent weighted DVOA. Defensive improvement over the second half of the season means the Patriots finished the year above average in all three phases of the game, one of three teams to do so."
It's hard to bet against New England, especially considering it just went 16-2 and isn't facing an elite defense, which is probably the only counterpunch to the Patriots machine.
Over/Under
The over/under is 58.5, per OddsShark.
Analysis
This is a harder decision than the pick against the spread.
On one hand, the over seems like the pick. Atlanta averaged 34.4 points in 18 games this year, while New England averaged 28.38—and four of those games were without quarterback Tom Brady.
But on the other, New England has only allowed between three and 17 points in eight of its last nine games. The defense is playing great football and finished as the top-scoring unit in the league.
Specifically, the Patriots defense has some players performing well this year.
Per Pro Football Focus, cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan finished with 89.8 and 85.3 grades, which ranked sixth and 10th among all cornerbacks in the NFL. Safety Devin McCourty earned an 89.7 grade (fourth among all NFL safeties) and Dont'a Hightower took 13th for linebackers. Defensive tackle Alan Branch also finished an 82.9 run defense grade, which was ninth among interior defensive linemen.
It's a well-rounded unit, with the only weakness being that it can't consistently rush the passer; per Football Outsiders, New England had a 5.1 percent adjusted sack rate, just 26th in the NFL. But their strengths more than make up for that deficiency.
This pick is a toss-up, and it's hard to feel strong either way. Give the edge to the Pats' underrated defense and go for the under.