2016-12-28

We've reached the final week of the 2016 NFL season, which naturally means we're close to having this year's playoff field set.

All six teams are locked for the AFC, though the seeding isn't finalized. Four teams are set in the NFC, and the winner of Sunday night's Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions matchup will claim the NFC North division title.

While we have a good idea of which teams are going to be in the tournament for Super Bowl 51, though, there's still some mystery about which teams are good enough to win it. Last week's injury to Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr did nothing to clarify the picture, either.

We're going to examine the few teams still in the running for the postseason and their latest Super Bowl odds—courtesy of OddsShark. We'll also take a look at some of the more interesting odds as of Week 17.

Postseason Picture



Super Bowl Odds



Teams to Watch

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-1)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have surged in recent weeks, both in terms of conference standings and Super Bowl odds. Their Christmas Day win over the Baltimore Ravens ensured the Steelers would be in the postseason, and now they're considered one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy.

Experience obviously plays a factor here. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has appeared in three Super Bowls, while head coach Mike Tomlin has reached two since taking his current position.

It also helps that Roethlisberger leads one of the most potent offenses in the NFL right now. The Steelers are rated ninth in overall offense by Pro Football Focus and average 376.7 yards per game, seventh in the NFL.

Pittsburgh's improving and opportunistic defense now allows the ninth-fewest points in the league, an average of just 20.2 per game.

The Steelers have suddenly become one of the more well-rounded teams in the AFC, and as such, they have claimed the second-best odds in the conference. If there's a team that appears poised to challenge the New England Patriots for the AFC title, it might just be the Steelers.

Oakland Raiders (28-1)

Despite boasting the second-best record in the AFC, the Raiders have seen their projected odds of winning the Super Bowl drop dramatically. This is because Carr suffered a broken fibula in Week 16.

Carr has undergone surgery to help fix the injury and is targeting the Super Bowl for a return, per brother David Carr (via NFL Network's Ian Rapoport):

The problem is that for the Raiders to reach the big game, they're going to have to rely on backup Matt McGloin. The Penn State product hasn't started a regular-season game since the 2013 season with a 1-5 starting record.

The good news is that the Raiders seem to genuinely believe in McGloin's ability to get the job done.

"He’s a leader at heart and a hard worker," Raiders tight end Mychal Rivera said, per Jerry McDonald of the Bay Area News Group. "It’s almost like he lives for being that underdog, and that’s what fuels him. We’re going to rally behind him and we’re excited for Sunday."

With all due respect to McGloin, Carr has played like an MVP candidate this season, and Pro Football Focus rated him fifth among all quarterbacks. Losing him has to hurt the team's chances of winning through the postseason.

What would help Oakland is a Week 17 win over the Denver Broncos and a loss by the Patriots to the Miami Dolphins. If this occurs, the Raiders would at least hold home-field advantage through the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (200-1)

The longest Super Bowl odds for any team still in the playoff race belong to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is because it would take a minor miracle for the Buccaneers to even get into the postseason.

Tampa needs to beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 to have any shot at all, but things don't end there.

Because of strength-of-victory and common-opponent tiebreakers, the Buccaneers also need the Green Bay Packers, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Indianapolis Colts, the Houston Texans and the Seattle Seahawks to lose in the final week.

On top of all that, the Buccaneers need the game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants to end in a Washington loss or tie.

If all of this unfolds, the Buccaneers will be a playoff team. Once there, Tampa Bay could certainly do some damage, but the 200-1 odds the team is facing is a reflection of just how unlikely it is the team will get that opportunity.

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