We've officially reached the doorstep of Week 16 in the 2016 NFL season. If you're still alive in a season-long fantasy league, you're probably in the championship game or on the doorstep of that, too.
First of all, congratulations are in order for those of you who have made it this far. Feel free to pat yourselves on the back—just don't go showering yourself with sports drinks. (Fantasy isn't a real sport, after all.)
Now that you're done celebrating, it's time to face the reality that this point in the fantasy season brings with it an incredible amount of pressure to make the right decisions. You know which of your fantasy studs are must-starts, but what about those players who look just as right on the bench as they do in your starting lineup?
Well, we're going to help you with some of those fringe starters. We'll examine players we think are worth a start in Week 16 and some we think belong on the bench or the waiver pile. All of our choices are based on points-per-reception scoring formats and factors like past performances, matchups and health.
Good luck!
Start 'Em: Matt Barkley, QB, Chicago Bears
Yes, we're actually going to say it: Matt Barkley, a guy who was the third option for the Chicago Bears this season, is a player we think can be worth a start in Week 16. Is he going to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback? Maybe not. Yet, he showed last week that he does know how to properly utilize the weapons around him.
Against the Green Bay Packers, Barkley passed for 362 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he also tossed three interceptions and lost a fumble.
If Barkley can cut down on those turnovers, though, being a top-10 fantasy quarterback isn't out of the question. He and the Bears host the Washington Redskins this week, a team that may allow Barkley to produce some notable fantasy numbers.
As a team, the Redskins allow an average of 260.1 yards passing per game—seventh-most in the league. Pro Football Focus rates the Redskins 23rd in pass coverage for the season.
We wouldn't be surprised to see Barkley pass for 350 yards and a couple of touchdowns again this week. Let's just hope he refrains from turning the ball over.
Sit 'Em: Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia
Despite playing at a respectable level recently, no one is likely to suggest that Barkley is a future franchise quarterback at this point in time. For Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, it's a different story.
"When it mattered most, Wentz stepped up and showed why he can be a franchise quarterback," Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com wrote of Wentz after Sunday's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. (See, we're not just making stuff up.)
While Wentz has shown some signs of being a future franchise signal-caller, that's not what you care about here. You want fantasy points, and we don't think Wentz will be providing many of those this week.
While Wentz did lead the Eagles on a potential game-tying drive late (the team went for two and the win), he only produced 170 yards passing with an interception against the Ravens. We wouldn't expect him to be any better this week against the New York Giants, who are rated fourth in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and held their last two opponents to 13 combined points.
We'd recommend staying away from Wentz until the small-school product has a better grasp on this whole NFL thing.
Start 'Em: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
After his high-profile rookie season, it's difficult to grasp the reality that Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley has become nothing more than a fringe starter. It's true, though, as the Georgia back has a mere 778 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season.
Gurley is averaging a Trent Richardson-like 3.2 yards per carry, too.
Part of the problem could be opposing teams consistently stacking the box against Gurley. Another part of the problem might be a conservative offense that Gurley thinks should come with a lunch box.
"We looked like a middle school offense out there," Gurley said a couple of weeks ago, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com.
Well, this week might finally bring Gurley a chance at redemption (and his first 100-yard game of the season). While the San Francisco 49ers were able to shut down Gurley in Week 1, no team is worse at defending the run right now.
The 49ers are surrendering a league-worst average of 176.3 yards rushing per game.
Sit 'Em: Chris Ivory, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Can you remember when running back Chris Ivory was a top-tier fantasy option?
Yeah, it's been a while. That was all the way back in 2015 when he played for the New York Jets and performed at a Pro Bowl level. While we still like the way Ivory plays, we don't like the way the Jacksonville Jaguars utilize him.
Treated as more of a powerful complementary back, Ivory rarely sees the type of workload you want for a fantasy back. In fact, he's only seen 15 or more carries twice this season. Perhaps things will be different now that Gus Bradley has been relieved of his head coaching duties, as reported by Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union:
We wouldn't bet on it, though. We also wouldn't bet on Ivory putting up monster numbers against a Tennessee Titans team that allows an average of just 91.7 yards per game.
Start 'Em: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
Considering he missed the entire 2015 season with a torn ACL, it's hard not to be a little impressed with how Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin has performed this season. Of course, this isn't going to stop fantasy owners from cursing him every time he has a substandard game.
Unfortunately, Benjamin has had quite a few unimpressive outings this season. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 12, and he hasn't caught more than two passes in a game since Week 11.
Benjamin has had some solid days, though—he has had six games with at least five receptions—and he could be in store for another one in Week 16. Benjamin and the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons, who, like Carolina, aren't especially adept at defending the pass.
As a team, the Falcons are rated 14th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. That doesn't seem awful until you realize only two teams surrender more than the 267.4 yards passing per game the Falcons do.
The last time these two teams met, Benjamin hauled in three passed for 39 yards and a touchdown. We'd expect him to at least equal this production at home in Week 16.
Sit 'Em: Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns
Earlier this season, it was virtually impossible to justify benching Cleveland Browns wideout Terrelle Pryor. He was the top target on the team, was running the ball and was even throwing the occasional pass or two.
However, as the quarterback situation has grown more hazy (opaque?), it's been harder and harder to count on the converted quarterback. Now that Robert Griffin III is under center, Pryor probably isn't even worth the consideration. Three games ago, Pryor caught six passes for 131 yards. He has just five receptions for 22 yards in two games with Griffin.
To be fair, though, Griffin appears better at hitting cameramen than open receivers—seriously, he's completed exactly 50.0 percent of his passes this season.
On top of this, Pryor is dealing with a finger that could require surgery in the offseason. He does plan to play through the injury, but he doesn't make it sound like catching Griffin's errant passes will be especially easy.
"Every single time I bent my knuckle, my knuckle felt like it got smashed with a hammer," Pryor said, per Pat McManamon of ESPN.com.
We really respect Pryor's toughness here, but we can't recommend starting him in a late fantasy playoff matchup.