There are 43 FBS college football games on tap for Saturday in Week 13, but one of those games stands out above the rest when it pertains to the ultimate goal of making the College Football Playoff and getting a shot at a national championship.
The game in question is "The Game," the annual rivalry matchup between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. As the nickname suggests, little is needed to hype this contest. This is especially true for this year's iteration, which will have consequences that reverberate far beyond Ohio Stadium.
Both teams are 10-1 overall, 7-1 in Big Ten conference play. They've ranked second and third in the nation for the past two weeks, putting them both in line to qualify for the CFP.
If the Wolverines win, they will book a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, and almost certainly knock the Buckeyes from playoff contention. If the Buckeyes win, No. 7 Penn State is through to the conference championship, and the CFP committee will have a decidedly unenviable task of sorting through the crush of teams at the top.
Here's a look at the CFP rankings heading into Week 13 with playoff odds and projections by Ed Feng.
The rankings look very similar to those from Week 12. The top four remained unchanged, and Louisville crashed out of contention with a 36-10 loss to Houston. The Cardinals' removal from the immediate playoff picture helped open up a path for less-heralded contenders like Colorado, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
No. 1 Alabama essentially has a free pass to lose to No. 13 Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday. This contest has seen plenty of thrilling results in recent years, but even if somehow Alabama were to lose badly to the Tigers, they could still salvage a playoff spot by winning the SEC championship.
With No. 4 Clemson looking exceedingly likely to win the ACC title—they've already clinched the Atlantic division and should beat Virginia Tech in the conference title game—it seems like it's conference championships or bust for at least three of the top four spots with the only exception possibly being a second Big Ten team sneaking through.
The Buffaloes' chances are going to run through No. 5 Washington, which booked a spot in the Pac-12 title matchup with a 45-17 beatdown of No. 23 Washington State in the Apple Cup. Colorado plays No. 22 Utah on Saturday, a must win game for the Buffaloes if they want to reach the Pac-12 Championship game and have any shot at the conference title they will need to make the playoff.
Washington's impressive win over Washington State is a huge boost to their credentials, but a conference title still has to be seen as a necessity at this point with the slim possibility of two Big Ten teams making the playoff still on the table and the Big 12 looming.
A win over Colorado or even USC in the Pac-12 title game would put Washington at 12-1 with a small handful of high-profile wins, a very tough resume for the CFP to ignore. The one-loss record would also stack up pretty well with the Big-12 heavies and a two-loss team winning the Big Ten title.
The lurking Big-12 hopefuls are No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 10 Oklahoma State, Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer notes they will need chaos to overcome their quirky late-season scheduling and the resumes of the teams ahead of them:
Oklahoma provided an impressive road showing against West Virginia. The Sooners checked in at No. 8 this week. Oklahoma State made quick work of TCU, and the Pokes are No. 10.
The two will take this weekend off—thank you, Big 12 scheduling!—and hope the teams in front of them continue to lose. A Michigan victory would be a start. All other turmoil is welcome.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will then play for the conference next weekend. The winner will certainly enjoy a considerable bump, though it won't be enough by itself. A loss by Clemson and/or Pac-12 Championship Game cannibalization will likely be needed.
As for Penn State and No. 6 Wisconsin, their only path the playoff is a Big Ten championship on their resume.
The Badgers' only losses this season are to Michigan and Ohio State, but a third loss would be untenable, whether it's to Minnesota on Saturday or to the representative from the Big Ten East in the conference championship. If Wisconsin does somehow lose to the Golden Gophers, they still are in the title game due to No. 16 Nebraska's 40-10 loss to Iowa on Friday. At that point, however, they would simply be playing spoiler.
For Penn State to reach the title game, they need Ohio State to beat Michigan on Saturday and then clinch the job with a win over a mediocre Michigan State team. It's been a remarkable season for the Nittany Lions, who were nowhere near the playoff picture when the season began and didn't look any closer to getting into the frame after getting off to a 2-2 start. But a signature win over Ohio State on Oct. 22 put a charge into their season, and they are relevant on a national stage once again.
Still, they need help from the Buckeyes in what could be a game for the ages. USA Today's Eddie Timanus believes Ohio State is in better shape for the game, but there is still so much that could happen:
The Buckeyes would appear to be in better shape in terms of available personnel, though last week’s close call against Michigan State reintroduced some misgivings in the overall effectiveness of the offense. QB J.T. Barrett does generally make the key plays when he needs them, but the operation runs more smoothly when all-purpose back Curtis Samuels touches the ball. The Wolverines are well aware of this as well, of course, so he can expect some additional attention from LBs Ben Gedeon and Jabrill Peppers.
Michigan’s passing attack looked far less formidable when QB John O’Korn was pressed into service for the injured Wilton Speight. Buckeyes’ S Malik Hooker and Co. aren’t easy to throw against anyway, so Michigan is going to need big contributions from RBs De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans. The OSU defense must also be alert to the guest appearances by Peppers in the Wolverines’ backfield.
The playoff picture is still murky, but it will gain plenty of clarity once the result of this monster matchup is in the books.
A Michigan win almost guarantees them a playoff spot as they've already shown they can handle Wisconsin. An Ohio State win coupled with a Penn State loss would also clear things up greatly for it would send the Buckeyes to the conference title game. However, that is an unlikely scenario.
What's more likely is the CFP committee still having a huge headache to deal with after Week 12, leaving fans with plenty to consider heading into the various conference title contests.