The first month of the 2016 fantasy football season is in the books. For many of you, this means you're about a third of the way through your regular season.
If you've managed to get off to a strong start, then it's time to keep the foot on the proverbial pedal and keep racking up wins. If you haven't been so lucky, well, now is the time to turn things around. Either way, Week 5 is shaping up to be an important slate of fantasy action.
With four teams—the Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks—on bye, you may be faced with some tough roster decisions this week.
Of course, these tough decisions shouldn't involve potential matchup-proof options like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Le'Veon Bell. If you're questioning whether you should play high-caliber players like these, maybe you deserve to be struggling. Sure, these guys can have bad games, but they are few and far between.
Just imagine if you had benched Jones because you were worried about him playing the Carolina Panthers defense.
Hopefully, your agonizing decisions involve fringe fantasy stars—you know, those guys who can produce big numbers one week and then leave you hanging the next. We're going to examine some of these fringe starters and help determine which are most likely to boom and which are most likely to bust in Week 5.
We'll be focusing on players who can fill your flex position, and we'll also take a look at some players with added value in points-per-reception (PPR) formats.
Start 'Em: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears were expected to lean on Jeremy Langford in the ground game this season given the fact that longtime star Matt Forte is now a member of the New York Jets. The Bears did for a while, but injury opened up the door for rookie Jordan Howard in Week 4.
Howard got the start against the rival Detroit Lions, and he performed beautifully. The Indiana product played with a sense of physicality and finished with 111 yards rushing and three receptions for 21 more yards.
Bears head coach John Fox made it clear that Howard would be a big piece of the running game moving forward:
If you had the foresight to pick up Howard earlier in the season—or were lucky enough to land him on waivers—don't worry about his Week 4 performance being a fluke. Howard is the Bears back to own now, and he is facing a terrific matchup in Week 5.
Howard and the Bears will visit the Indianapolis Colts, who are rated dead last in run defense by Pro Football Focus.
Sit 'Em: Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins
Washington Redskins running back Matt Jones entered Week 4 with only one 100-yard rushing performance on his resume. He got his second with an 117-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Cleveland Browns.
Part of Jones' success may have stemmed from the fact that he was playing the lowly Browns. Part of it, though, probably came from improved decision-making.
Washington head coach Jay Gruden seemed to think the game marked a turning point for Jones.
"Looked like he was running with more power and more conviction," Gruden said, per Rick Snider of the Washington Post. "That’s a big thing as a back."
If Jones really has turned the corner, he should be a fantasy starter moving forward, right? Well, not so fast.
Jones had 117 yards last week and just 150 in the three previous weeks combined. It's also worth noting that 11 of Jones' 22 carries last week came in the fourth quarter, as the Redskins were trying to put the Browns away.
Jones still doesn't seem to be a major part of the early offensive game plan, which hurts his potential volume. A bigger problem this week, though, is his opponent. The Baltimore Ravens are rated first overall in run defense by Pro Football Focus.
Expect Jones to take a disappointing step back.
Potential PPR Star: Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns
It's become clear that the Browns are going to be a run-first team this year. This means that Cleveland running backs like Isaiah Crowell—second in the NFL with 394 yards rushing—are going to have quite a bit of fantasy value.
In terms of running the ball, Duke Johnson is the No. 2 back in Cleveland. However, he does get opportunities (nine carries for 53 yards in Week 4) and is an asset in the passing game. He already has 18 receptions on the season and 11 in the past two games.
This week, Johnson may actually be the more desirable Browns back to own. The New England Patriots are rated a solid seventh in run defense by Pro Football Focus, and they may limit Cleveland's ability to run. However, Johnson should still get plenty of opportunities to catch passes.
Cleveland is starting rookie quarterback Cody Kessler for the third consecutive game, and you can bet the team tries to make life easier by utilizing the short-passing game. Johnson could realistically see six to eight receptions and 100 combined rushing and receiving yards on the day.
Start 'Em: Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have gotten off to a hot start this season. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has the offense rolling, the defense is allowing a mere 9.0 points per game, and the Eagles are coming out of their Week 4 bye with an undefeated record.
Wide receiver Jordan Matthews has also played a big part in Philadelphia's strong start. He currently has 204 yards and two touchdowns on 15 receptions. The problem with Matthews is that half his production (seven receptions, 114 yards and a touchdown) came in the first week of the season against the Browns.
The last time we saw Matthews on the field, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia went with a run-oriented attack. Matthews snagged just two passes for 19 yards, though he did score.
Well, we believe Matthews can get back to big-time production in Week 5, as the Eagles take on the Detroit Lions.
Detroit is rated just 28th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. Expect Matthews to get some early opportunities for big plays, even if the Eagles get a lead and start grinding it out on the ground late.
Sit 'Em: Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta Falcons
Like Matthews, Atlanta Falcons receiver Mohamed Sanu had a notable 2016 debut. The running mate to Julio Jones caught five passes for 80 yards and a touchdown in his first regular-season game as a Falcon.
However, Sanu has been quiet ever since. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury and hasn't been a significant part of the passing offense. According to Pro Football Focus, Sanu was targeted eight times in the season opener but has been targeted only 12 times in the three games since.
Until Sanu gets back to 100 percent health and becomes a bigger piece of the offense, he really isn't worth a serious look in fantasy. This week could be especially problematic, as the Falcons head to Denver to face the undefeated Broncos.
The Broncos are allowing just 169.5 yards passing per game, the second-lowest total in the NFL.
Potential PPR Star: Jeremy Kerley, WR, San Francisco 49ers
We don't necessarily recommend looking to the San Francisco 49ers for your fantasy receivers. The team ranks dead last in the NFL with an average of 178.8 yards passing per game. However, wideout Jeremy Kerley could be a sneaky flex option in PPR leagues.
Despite playing only the third-most offensive snaps at wide receiver, Kerley leads the 49ers wideouts in targets with 31, according to Pro Football Focus. He has 18 receptions on the season and is coming off his best game of the year.
Against the Dallas Cowboys, Kerley produced six receptions, 88 yards and a touchdown.
In each of San Francisco's home games this year, Kerley has caught at least six passes. This week, the 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is rated 14th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus, which is good but not great. He isn't likely to have a monster game, but Kerley should be good for at least 10 points from receptions and yardage alone. Any scoring he does would simply be a bonus.