Like it or not, misses are a major part of fantasy football drafts.
Such is the nature of the beast, this violent game of football where an injury can claim a first-round pick.
Fantasy owners undoubtedly felt burnt by plenty of major names last year. Guys such as Andrew Luck, Justin Forsett, Jamaal Charles and Julian Edelman all grossly underperformed.
Such things can't be helped, which is what makes the proper draft strategy so important. Owners can regain some of the lost ground through trades and the waiver wire, but the right approach to a draft can lessen the reliance on such measures.
For a visualization of this strategy, here's a look at a four-round mock draft based on a 12-team league in standard scoring format:
The biggest bit of strategy available? Know the format. It sounds silly, but everyone has seen the guy or gal who joins a points-per-reception (PPR) league and lands in last place because they took plodding running backs and receivers who don't get a load of targets.
Likewise, know if the league starts one or two quarterbacks. Know the scoring. If a quarterback tossing a touchdown classifies as six points it changes the complexion of a draft—Ryan Fitzpatrick might not seem like such a great mid-round pick, but he tied Aaron Rodgers in touchdowns passes last year (31) and only nine players threw more.
Rotowire's Chris Liss provides more context as to how different scoring values and formats can completely change a draft approach:
Your league's scoring for passing yards and TDs also affects the value of quarterbacks who run—the less credit given for passing stats, the more the running quarterbacks stand out relative to their peers. Point-per-reception (PPR) leagues add more relative value to position players and remove value from all quarterbacks.
Otherwise, the basic tenets of fantasy football still apply. Some interesting ideals have come up in recent years, but here's a counter to one of the more popular newbies: avoid the zero-RB rule at all costs.
Seriously, just don't do it. The prominence of the passing game in recent years and the continued injuries to running backs encourages some owners to avoid the position at all costs.
It's a bad idea. Running back isn't quarterback, a position owners can find whenever and easily project on a week-to-week basis. A quality running back provides steady, unmatched production compared to any positions—and especially compared to wideouts and tight ends who are in no way guaranteed targets.
NFL Network's Michael Fabiano puts it best:
Running backs simply have more opportunity at scoring touchdowns and the old adage "opportunities equal touchdowns" still applies. A whopping 15 players totaled 200 or more carries last year, with seven of them going for more than 1,000 yards and five of them scoring double-digit touchdowns.
Not that wideouts can't be reliable. In fact, that's why owners see two start off the drafting process above thanks to a simple rule: prioritize the target hogs.
Here's a look at the 10-most targeted players last year and their fantasy standing against all others at the position by season's end:
Almost without exception, the top fantasy wideouts amass the most targets. However, some of the more plodding players who wouldn't be expected to break away for big plays in the first place tend to fall out of the top 10. Owners should know that someone such as Jarvis Landry is a chain-moving target hog and doesn't otherwise see the most scoring chances in the Miami offense.
In some drafts, selecting a quarterback-wideout combo isn't a terrible idea if the opportunity presents itself. Sticking with the theme from earlier, Fitzpatrick tossed 31 touchdowns, with No. 1 wideout Brandon Marshall scoring 14 times.
Finally, don't reach past average draft position (ADP). Getting a favorite player is great but needs to happen when the value makes sense. Rest assured the winning owners analyze ADP as a draft board moves, picking and choosing their spots to strike as opposed to reaching because of a need.
When has reaching for a positional need ever worked out for a team in real life? Follow an ADP chart like the one at Fantasy Football Calculator to ensure a winning formula. One shouldn't take an Alshon Jeffery in the first round when he has an ADP of 3.02, just like one shouldn't bank on Carlos Hyde in an early round when he's at 4.03.
ADP charts provide plenty of context to drafts. Some owners might realize by looking at the chart that there are only three running backs in the ADP range of the third round, what gets classified as a draft "dead zone." Meaning, of course, that's the round to take a wideout, not beforehand. Grabbing a back in the third-round dead zone doesn't make a ton of sense unless someone notable falls.
Even with these steadfast rules proven year after year, they won't entirely prevent the unpredictable. But again, the right ideas throughout a draft will help ease the leakage of a major incident derailing what looked like an incredible start to a draft.
Like many things in life, preparation is key to success with fantasy drafts. The most prepared fantasy owners land in the most likely situation to find success in the draft and when the head-to-head encounters begin.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats. Average draft position (ADP) courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.