On Sunday, two Premier League sides with very different mindsets will do battle.
Manchester City, who have won four from four under new manager Pep Guardiola, come up against West Ham, who have been distinctly up-and-down so far in 2016-17.
Like last season, the Hammers have had to make an early start to competitive football, contesting a UEFA Europa League match as early as July. On Thursday night, though, any progress made was thrown away, as a loss to Astra Giurgiu sent them tumbling from the competition.
City have had to endure midweek European qualifiers, too, but made light work of Steaua Bucharest in the Champions League equivalent over two legs and rested a number of key men ahead of the weekend.
Out of Europe and with only a poor loss to Chelsea and a scrappy win over AFC Bournemouth under their belts, now is the perfect time for West Ham to refocus and make a statement victory. If it comes over Guardiola’s City, well...that’s about as big a statement as you can make.
Manchester City
Predicting the XI Guardiola uses is an exceptionally difficult exercise, but there are players he is trying to bed in and force into form, so certain names are almost guaranteed to appear.
Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne, Fernandinho and Nicolas Otamendi all sat out Wednesday’s win over Steaua and are all expected to come back into the team. Of the players who did play in midweek, John Stones, Aleksandar Kolarov and one of Jesus Navas or Nolito will likely take to the pitch again.
The big question for Guardiola is whether or not to start Claudio Bravo, his shiny new goalkeeping prize acquired from Barcelona. Not only is he a superior goalkeeper (in a traditional sense) to both Willy Caballero and Joe Hart, but he’s also far better as a possession recycler—hence the purchase. But will it be too soon? Will Caballero fill in for now?
West Ham
West Ham’s beginning to the season has been predictably tumultuous, but Thursday’s European knockout should bring a much-needed sense of tunnel vision to their season: Their focus is now on domestic matters, and only those.
For the trip to The Etihad Stadium, we’ll see plenty of changes made to the XI that lost to Astra in midweek. Only Winston Reid will likely survive of the back four and goalkeeper, the midfield will welcome back Mark Noble and manager Slaven Bilic has a tough choice to make up front between three underwhelming options.
The Evening Standard reported that Dimitri Payet will be available for selection on Sunday, which represents huge news. As the best player at the club, the star man, his presence can transform the Hammers’ on-pitch play and mindset. Manuel Lanzini might also make the 18.
Pressure Point 1: Blockade the central zones
Much has been made (or sought after) in Guardiola’s opening games as Manchester City boss, as the tactician has such a reputation for the wild and wonderful, and fans are scouring the film with a fine-tooth comb for any innovations he has already enacted.
In truth, there hasn’t been much yet. Full-backs bending into central midfield to join the buildup aside, the prevailing quality to City’s improved play under Pep has been as simple as better use of the ball—particularly in central zones.
The amount of passes played that “pack” players (passes that go forward and breach lines, bypassing the opposition) has been extremely impressive. It starts from the back, with new recruit Stones excelling in this area, and filters up into midfield through Fernandinho, KDB and Silva. Yes, City are dominating the ball (they have the highest average possession through two Premier League games, per WhoScored.com), but they’re using it well, too.
With De Bruyne and his midfield partner operating as “free No. 8s,” the wingers invited to move and swap and the lone forward dipping and diving, it’s a nightmare to track and crack down on City. Sunderland failed, Stoke City were run over and Steaua decided to foul their way through a game they eventually lost 5-0 at home.
The only option for West Ham on Sunday will be to pack the middle and condense the space in which City have to play. Havard Nordtveit is perfect as an anchor (though his use of the ball must be better), while Cheikhou Kouyate and Noble can sit in and form a three-man midfield.
Blocking the middle will force City outward and place the onus on the wings, and it will also ensure Sterling and Nolito/Navas will have to produce from the flanks in order to break the seal.
Pressure Point 2: Decision-making is key
When West Ham do get on the ball, they’ll likely win it deep in their own territory and be presented with the chance to counter. The key to success here will be how well they use the ball and how good their decisions are in crucial moments. Fortunately, they look set to welcome one of the smartest players in the league back into the team.
Payet boasts many qualities, each as eye-popping as the next, but his decision-making on the run while spearheading a counter-attack is his best one. The Hammers are deadly on the reverse, and it’s largely down to him.
West Ham’s first six fixtures last season included trips to Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City. They won all three games, and the driving force behind each win was their mercurial Frenchman. His combination of power and guile when bursting forward is impossible to stop when he’s been sharpened up, and few managed to stop him or second-guess him in 2015-16. Very few more will manage it this time around.
If Bilic opts for a 4-3-3 to blockade the middle, Payet and Michail Antonio should be played flanking a striker. It’ll provide steel in the centre to snuff out passing moves and then give the central three an easy out-ball to a physical, direct dribbler who can lead them out of trouble and into City’s territory.
Execution is key, because chances to counter won’t come around every three minutes. Payet’s ability to maximise and capitalise on chances awarded makes him a must-start, and he must go for as long as he can.
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