Don't sweat the end of NBA free agency. It's now extension season!
C.J. McCollum and the Portland Trail Blazers were kind enough to get us started, striking a four-year, $106 million agreement, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. This will be the first of many dominoes to fall between now and the league's late-October extension deadline. Locking up certain soon-to-be restricted free agents is paramount for teams with another salary-cap spike scheduled for 2017.
For clarity's sake, the forthcoming predictions refer only to pre-deadline deals. Players who aren't included won't necessarily leave their incumbent digs. They'll just wait until next summer to negotiate their payday.
This rule will only be cast aside for those considered max-contract formalities. Current teams might wait until next summer before handing out these pacts in order to preserve financial flexibility. We're predicting players will sign a max deal to stay put at some point, be it before deadline day or in restricted free agency.
The "Definitely Not Happening" Caste
Reggie Bullock (Detroit Pistons), Trey Burke (Washington Wizards), Michael Carter-Williams (Milwaukee Bucks), Archie Goodwin (Phoenix Suns), Tim Hardaway Jr. (Atlanta Hawks), Shabazz Muhammad (Minnesota Timberwolves), Ben McLemore (Sacramento Kings), Tony Snell (Chicago Bulls)
It's difficult to picture any of the above names getting extensions. Some, like Reggie Bullock, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Archie Goodwin, don't play big enough roles. Others, like Trey Burke and Tony Snell, haven't come close to validating a long-term pact despite ample burn.
Shabazz Muhammad would be an interesting candidate if he didn't play behind Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins. Michael Carter-Williams remains the Dion Waiters of his draft class. The Sacramento Kings have already tried to rid themselves of Ben McLemore, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
If any of these gentlemen broker an extension, it's because they accepted an unfathomable discount on top of their already-undefined market value.
The "Probably Not Happening" Family
Alex Len, Phoenix Suns
Alex Len will probably get paid...eventually. He is still a top-five-in-his-class prospect and now shoots long twos with adequate efficiency.
But the Phoenix Suns locked Tyson Chandler up and acquired two more bigs, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss, in the first round of this year's draft. Committing to Len now, with the frontcourt rotation in flux, is unlikely.
Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics
Kelly Olynyk deserves an extension. Shoulder issues marred some of his 2015-16 campaign and ruined his postseason, but he's the Boston Celtics' third-most important two-way player, behind Jae Crowder and Al Horford.
Offering extensions just isn't team president Danny Ainge's style at the moment. The Celtics figure to be free-agency whales again next summer, and signing Olynyk cuts into their flexibility. His place in the rotation isn't exactly clear after Horford's arrival, either.
If Boston pulls off a blockbuster trade before the extension deadline, taking on a star's salary and effectively removing itself from free-agency festivities, Olynyk's future will get a closer look.
Mason Plumlee, Portland Trail Blazers
A Mason Plumlee extension would be the most shocking of this bunch. The Portland Trail Blazers have Ed Davis, Festus Ezeli, Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh on the books and shouldn't be investing long-term money in another big.
Plumlee's best shot at sticking with the team is outperforming three of those four guys in time to land big money as a restricted free agent.
Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder
Andre Roberson would be an extension lock if he paired his defense with an average three-point touch. But he doesn't, and he must now prove he belongs in Oklahoma City's new Kevin Durant-less core.
Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets usually take charge in retaining their own free agents. They gave an extension to Kemba Walker in 2014 and then continued the tradition with deals for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb last fall.
Cody Zeller's case is more complicated. The Hornets lost Al Jefferson, but they re-signed Marvin Williams and have Frank Kaminsky waiting in the shadows.
Zeller hasn't done enough to prove he's the center of the future. His contract situation should carry over into restricted free agency.
The "Look, It Could Go Either Way" Duo
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
Sources told the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett the Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are no longer discussing a Jahlil Okafor trade. That's bad news for Nerlens Noel's extension stock.
Philly employs entirely too many bigs. Even if Ben Simmons and Dario Saric can play protracted stretches at small forward (they shouldn't), not one of Joel Embiid, Noel or Okafor is power forward material. It doesn't make sense to shell out tens of millions of dollars for Noel before moving Okafor and seeing what Embiid can do.
Major question marks remain regarding his offensive skill set. Noel doesn't score enough away from the basket and has yet to flourish as a pick-and-roll finisher. But he remains a defensive dynamo.
No NBA player has ever matched Noel's per-game steal (1.8) and block (1.7) averages through his rookie and sophomore seasons, and he has the second-highest career defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) for qualified two-year veterans, trailing only David Robinson.
Prediction: Reaches restricted free agency if Jahlil Okafor isn't traded; signs for four years, $90 million if Okafor is dealt by extension deadline
Victor Oladipo, Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are already committed to Victor Oladipo in many ways. They gave up Serge Ibaka to get him, and Durant's departure has thrust OKC into a rebuild that needs 24-year-old studs who won't reach the open market for another four or five years.
According to Wojnarowski, though, the Thunder are trying to renegotiate Russell Westbrook's contract while selling him on a Blake Griffin pursuit in 2017. They'll need to maintain wiggle room in advance of next summer's superstar chase, but Oladipo is seeking max money, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, and Steven Adams is up for an extension as well.
That renders an Oladipo deal unlikely—unless, of course, Oklahoma City feels compelled to ship out Westbrook. Then an Oladipo extension becomes inevitable.
Prediction: Reaches restricted free agency if Russell Westbrook stays; signs for four years, $79 million if Westbrook is traded by extension deadline
The "Non-Max, But Maybe Near-Max" Extendees
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shouldn't have to wait for an extension like his teammate Andre Drummond. The Detroit Pistons are interested in hammering out something before the deadline, per the Detroit Free Press' Vince Ellis.
Delaying a deal only becomes a priority if the Pistons are trying to preserve cap space. But they have $91.9 million in guaranteed contracts on next summer's ledger before accounting for Caldwell-Pope's $9.2 million hold. There is no real breathing room for them to conserve.
Caldwell-Pope proved himself indispensable to Detroit's cause last season. He often assumed the toughest perimeter defensive assignment and posted the highest net rating of any Pistons wing. His three-point percentage (30.9) once again hovered below the league average, and he continues to struggle working without the ball, but he's opportunistic on drives. Detroit has also found creative ways to use him in transition, as a Reggie Jackson trailer.
Combo wings are getting pretty pennies these days, and the Pistons don't have the depth to make up for Caldwell-Pope's absence. Stanley Johnson might live in LeBron James' head, but he's still a kid. And neither Marcus Morris nor Tobias Harris can survive switching onto point guards and shooting guards; they barely match up with small forwards.
Ellis has Caldwell-Pope seeking $20 million annually, with Detroit angling for something in the neighborhood of $15 million per year. Figure on the Pistons caving considerably. The Dallas Mavericks gave max money to Harrison Barnes this summer. Another team will do the same for Caldwell-Pope in 2017 if the Pistons don't up the ante.
Prediction: Four years, $96 million
Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves
Waiting on a Gorgui Dieng extension won't be an option if the Minnesota Timberwolves know what's good for them. Paying him Bismack Biyombo money will be the least of their worries if he reaches the semi-open market amid one last salary-cap boom.
There are some long-term concerns about how Dieng fits in Minnesota. Karl-Anthony Towns is best suited to play the 5, and Dieng often looks out of place at the 4, where he spent most of his court time in 2015-16.
The Timberwolves made this pairing work anyway. Towns has three-point range, mitigating any spacing warts, and the duo packed a surprising offensive punch. Minnesota pumped in more than 111 points per 100 possessions with them on the floor, and former head coach Sam Mitchell staggered their minutes enough to ensure Dieng received extended burn at center.
Dieng, for his part, re-worked his game to become a more palatable offensive weapon at the 4. As Eric in Madison wrote for Canis Hoopus:
Dieng took a real step forward this season, finishing better around the rim, extending his range out to 20+ feet (though he fell off from the shorter mid-range where he had been deadly in his first two years) and improving his defense from below average to likely above average. He wound up posting the 14th highest RPM among centers this season after being 41st in 2014-15.
Defending playmaking power forwards will always be among Dieng's issues. New head coach Tom Thibodeau will help him a great deal with reading and reacting to dribble penetration and guarding off the bounce. The Timberwolves could eventually look to move him and make way for a sweeter-shooting 4 next to Towns, but even if that's the game plan, it's best to get him under wraps now and capitalize on his value later.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Otto Porter, Washington Wizards
League sources told CSNMidAtlantic.com's J. Michael that Otto Porter appears "likely to become a restricted free agent next summer, with no movement towards an extension to his rookie scale contract with the [Washington] Wizards before starting the 2016-17 season." The dilemma is pretty clear-cut.
Washington isn't trying to save cap space for next summer, like it did with Bradley Beal. There is $94.7 million in guaranteed salary on the books for 2017-18, and that's before factoring in Porter's $11.8 million hold. If the Wizards believe in him, they'll make an aggressive pitch.
Any hesitation implies doubt. Washington doesn't want to back up the Brinks truck for someone who has yet to make a transcendent leap. Porter improved last season, averaging 11.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 36.7 percent from downtown. But he is a No. 4 option and hasn't yielded big-time gains as a small-ball 4. The Wizards were more inclined to use Jared Dudley in that capacity last season.
And yet, Porter has to be licking his chops after seeing Barnes command $94 million from the Mavericks. Similar to Barnes with the Golden State Warriors, Porter is buried in the Wizards' offensive pecking order, limiting his window to shine.
Porter, like Barnes, can roll the dice on himself and bank on cash-rich suitors lining his pockets in one year's time. But he'll need to make a significant jump for it be worthwhile. He is the complementary option for a fringe playoff team, not a 73-win titan. There won't be as much cap space floating around next summer, and his market won't be as forgiving—to the point that waiting may actually cost him money.
Prediction: Four years, $75 million
Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks
Dennis Schroder's extension is coming. The Atlanta Hawks have been plotting to iron out an agreement since before the draft, according to Wojnarowski, and doubled down on the 22-year-old's future by dealing Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers—much to Schroder's pleasure, mind you:
This now becomes a matter of "so, um, how much is this going to cost Atlanta?" Schroder's splits as a reserve are encouraging. He's averaging 17.4 points, 7.2 assists and 1.3 steals per 36 minutes for his career. Just three qualified players have done the same through their first three seasons since 2000: Chris Paul, John Wall and Russell Westbrook.
Schroder's three-point accuracy (32.4 percent for his career) won't inspire flamethrower photoshops, but his outside workload has increased each year without torpedoing his efficiency. Turnovers are the bigger concern, and he ranked in the 34th percentile of pick-and-roll potency among ball-handlers—a standing he'll need to remedy for the Hawks to maximize Dwight Howard's presence.
Still, Schroder left his mark during the 2015-16 crusade. Both Atlanta's offensive and defensive ratings improved with him in the game, and the Hawks' starters notched a higher net rating with him running point (plus-12.2) than they did with Teague (plus-4.0).
Larger sample sizes work against Teague in this head-to-head matchup, and Atlanta must account for growing pains and a feeling-out process with Schroder as the primary floor general. But the team has firmly staked its flag in his camp. His extension will reflect as much.
Prediction: Four years, $79 million
The "Max-Contract Formalities" Clique
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting max money from the Milwaukee Bucks. It's just a matter of when.
The Bucks have been hyper-aggressive in free agency since 2015 (Greg Monroe, Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic, etc.), and holding off on an extension affords them additional flexibility. They have a hair under $59.9 million in guaranteed contracts on tap for 2017-18 and must account for the possibility of Monroe picking up his $17.9 million player option if he isn't traded.
Antetokounmpo's cap hit would sit at $7.5 million until he signs a new deal, which pales in comparison to what he'll make in the first year of the next contract. Milwaukee can keep that hold on its books, get other free agents and then go over the cap to re-sign their almost seven-foot point guard.
Either way, Antetokounmpo will inevitably be a part of the max-contract club. He averaged 19.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.9 blocks in 23 appearances after Carter-Williams went down last season—all while shooting better than 51 percent from the field.
Though the absence of a reliable three-point stroke is a letdown, Antetokounmpo has shot better than 49 percent overall through each of the last two years. He is automatic when finishing around the rim, and his percentage on drives was 51.5 percent in 2015-16, fourth in the league.
Consistent outside shooting is about the only shortcoming that separates him from utter domination. And even that probably won't be enough to slow him down.
Prediction: Five-year max
Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
While the Thunder could wait until next summer to lock up Steven Adams, they should value the stability that comes with getting a deal done soon. Durant and Ibaka are gone, and Westbrook's future is up in the air. Adams is someone they can easily keep around for the next half-decade—and he serves a dual purpose for the team.
If the Thunder get Westbrook to renegotiate his contract, they'll want to tie down his second in command. If they decide to trade him, Adams becomes their cornerstone, and there would be no point in risking any offseason drama, however unlikely that may be.
None of this oversells Adams. He made enough progress during his third year to justify building-block status. He thrived as a pick-and-roll rim-runner and saved more points on the defensive end than any Thunder player not named Russell Westbrook, according to NBAMath.com. His value as a defensive hound alone renders him irreplaceable for a team that still deploys Enes Kanter.
Even better, Adams' per-36-minute splits have hardly slipped in an expanded role. He still ranks as a prorated double-double machine—a punch Oklahoma City will bet on him packing in larger doses now that Ibaka is in Orlando.
Prediction: Four-year max
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz have tabled extension talks until the Olympics are over, according to Cleveland.com's Chris Haynes. There shouldn't be too much back-and-forth once they resume those talks. Gobert, after all, is a max-contract talent—even in a league that values combo wings and shooters at the expense of bigs.
The Jazz, though, are a wild card when it comes to these situations. They hashed out extensions for Alec Burks and Derrick Favors—two players with undefined market rates. When it came to Gordon Hayward, a borderline max player, they waited until he received an offer from the Hornets in restricted free agency and then matched it.
Utah may apply similar tactics with Gobert, hanging on to his low cap hold until he pens an offer sheet with another team. But that's shortsighted. The Jazz's foundation is set. They don't need the extra cap space. And, in this salary-cap climate, they know Gobert won't have an issue sussing out max money somewhere else.
Extending him prior to the deadline is a proactive move. He can be the indefinite anchor for a league-best defense. He missed 21 games last season and still finished in the top 20 of defensive win shares. Opponents shot just 41 percent at the rim against him—the best mark among 150-plus players who contested at least 150 such field-goal attempts.
Over his first three seasons, while logging more than 4,500 total minutes, Gobert has eclipsed 10 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes. Just two other players have ever surpassed those three-year benchmarks, and they just so happen to be two of the greatest centers to ever play the game: Robert Parish and Bill Walton.
Prediction: Five-year max
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.