The Green Bay Packers are in trouble at wide receiver, but if you watched the second half of their 2015 campaign, you knew that already. From the St. Louis Rams-San Diego Chargers stretch on, when teams dared the Packers to win with their receivers on islands, the wheels fell off the offense.
There are several factors that led Green Bay to drop from the best team in terms of offensive points scored in 2014 to the 15th the year after, the franchise's worst mark under quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The squad also slipped to 23rd in offensive yards, even though in 2013, when Rodgers missed the better part of eight games, they still were third in the NFL in that statistic.
The wideout troubles of the team started with their best receiver: Jordy Nelson. Nelson tore his ACL in a preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which led to him missing the entire season. Randall Cobb, the team's second-best target, is best used as a slot receiver,.
Even heading into the year, we knew the unit was in trouble. When they signed James Jones, a former Packer who had been told by both the Oakland Raiders and New York Giants, bottom-10 teams in terms of record in 2014, that they were better rosters without the target, it was a move of desperation.
Jones is now a free agent. When looking down the roster for possible starting outside receivers opposite Nelson, the names that come up are the three third-year receivers, Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis, and Jeff Janis, who combined for only 61 receptions, 673 yards and one touchdown in 2015. That is just one reason why the squad selected Trevor Davis, a California target, on Day 3 of April's draft.
In an attempt to look for a savior among the Packers wideout unit, we'll break down exactly what each receiver's resume looks like heading into Green Bay's summer training sessions.
Davante Adams
A sloppy sluggo, but Aaron Rodgers was able to put it in the perfect spot for Davante Adams to make a play. pic.twitter.com/DieV9xI9Ko
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) May 23, 2016
2015: Started 12 of 13 games played, 50 receptions for 483 receiving yards and one touchdown.
2014: Started 11 of 16 games played, 38 receptions for 446 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Heading into the 2015 regular season, there were big expectations for Adams. First, he was a rookie starter for the Green Bay Packers, which meant something given general manager Ted Thompson's history at the receiver position.
The other top-100 picks Thompson had drafted at the time were Terrence Murphy, Greg Jennings, Jones, Nelson and Cobb. Other than Murphy, who had to retire after a spine injury that occurred early on in his rookie campaign, the other Thompson receiver selections were among the best in their respective drafts. To some extent, there was a feeling the Thompson Packers could do no wrong when evaluating that particular position.
Adams also started more games than any rookie receiver in the Mike McCarthy era. In fact, his 11 starts as a first-year receiver matched Jones, Nelson and Cobb's combined totals. Paired with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was coming off of an MVP season, many expected a breakout sophomore year from Adams.
Unfortunately, when you turned on the tape, Adams' potential was sobering. Matt Harmon of Backyard Banter, who might be the best receivers evaluator preaching on a public forum, noted Adams had the second-worst success rate against man coverage, the worst success rate against zone coverage and the second-worst success rate against press coverage of the top 14 receivers drafted in the 2014 class, based off of their rookie seasons.
Despite posting 11 starts in 16 games, his 446 receiving yards in 2014 fell short of Jennings' 632 in 2006, in 14 games, and Jones' 676 in 2007, in nine starts. Nelson, as a rotational player with only two starts in 2008, was only 80 yards short of Adams' mark. Cobb, with no starts as a rookie in 2011, was 71 yards short of the former Fresno State Bulldog.
Adams did not perform better than any other young Packers receiver in recent memory—he was just given more opportunities. When you realize Adams' only true accomplishment as a professional to date is beating out Jarrett Boykin, a former undrafted free agent who is on a futures contract with the Buffalo Bills, his reason for seeing the field so often makes more sense.
The Adams-Boykin combo replaced the 2013 reps of Jones, the second-most targeted receiver in Green Bay who left in free agency for the Oakland Raiders. After a one-year stint with the Raiders and a cup of coffee with the New York Giants, Jones returned to Green Bay for 2015, and he was able to lead the team in yardage and touchdowns, off of 50 receptions—the same amount Adams had.
The 32-year-old is a free agent despite blowing Adams out of the water statistically and on film.
As Ben Fennell of NFL Network and ESPN pointed out late in the season, if the Packers rolled out in single-receiver sets, it was Jones, not Adams, who was their sole outside receiver on the field. There was a clear pecking order in Green Bay, and Adams was behind the player they let walk into free agency for the second time in three years.
If I'm Davante Adams.. I'm insulted every snap James Jones gets in these 22 personnel (1WR) sets.
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) January 4, 2016
Those who are hopeful will pray Adams' breakout season will be a year late, noting his MCL and ankle issues in 2015, but Janis, Abbrederis and tight end Richard Rodgers all had more than Adams' 48 receiving yards in the playoffs.
He's been wildly inconsistent during his two years in the NFL, and his peaks haven't even been tremendously high, as he has only posted a 100-yard game once, and he's never had a two-score effort as a professional.
It may seem premature to say an experiment with a 23-year-old prospect is possibly over, but Thompson only gave 2012 second-round defensive tackle Jerel Worthy two years before trading him for a conditional pick and 2014 third-round defensive tackle Khyri Thornton one season before cutting him.
Adams' projection is all over the place, from starting outside receiver to not making the roster in September. The preseason is make-or-break for the pass-catcher.
Jeff Janis
Here's Jeff Janis' long TD against the Arizona Cardinals. pic.twitter.com/ncy6OLGrig
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) May 23, 2016
2015: Started zero of 16 games played, two receptions for 79 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
2014: Started zero of three games played, three receptions for 16 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
There is not a 24-year-old, third-year receiver with five regular-season receptions to his name who has been talked about more in the history of the National Football League than Janis. Unlike Adams, who was also drafted in 2014 and is an average athlete, Janis is a freak. He compares similarly to Javon Walker, who had a 1,382-yard and 12-touchdown season in Green Bay in 2004, on Mock Draftable.
Heading into the playoffs, the Janis experiment showed few signs of life. He hauled in two long passes in 2015, but he is known best as a kick returner, punt-gunner and pipe dream heading into 2016. In the Packers' first playoff game, Janis didn't make one catch, but that didn't stop him from leading the team in receiving yards after a single-game effort against the Arizona Cardinals.
In that match in Glendale, he made seven receptions for 145 yards and two touchdowns, surpassing his career totals in all three categories. And with that game, the former Saginaw Valley State seventh-round pick became a sleeper fantasy selection and a discussion point for this offseason.
The Packers desperately need a vertical receiver, but Janis' only contributions have come off of deep bombs, seemingly the only effective route he's capable of. Can Green Bay run their offense through Hail Mary throws, or can Janis develop some underneath and intermediate route running despite his inability to do so in his first two years?
Those are the only ways you can imagine Janis being a significant player in the 2016 season.
Jared Abbrederis
Here's Abby's drop against the Cardinals in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/B38HTrsjPe
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) May 23, 2016
2015: Started zero of 10 games played, nine receptions for 111 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
2014: Started zero of zero games played, zero receptions for zero receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
If not for Janis' athletic background as a Division II player, Abbrederis would be Green Bay's local favorite at the position. The former Wisconsin Badger was a great college player, totaling over 3,000 receiving yards.
His best game came against his best competition, too, as he totaled over 200 yards against Ohio State, who put future first-round cornerback Bradley Roby, who is now one of the pegs in the machine that is the Denver Broncos defense, in one-on-one situations with Abbrederis.
Abbrederis had a history of concussions in Madison, which was a concern pre-draft, and he suffered one in the 2015 preseason, which kept him out of practices, but it was a 2014 ACL injury that took away his rookie year. In 2015, he started the year in the practice squad, but midway through his second season removed from college, the former fifth-round pick was finally activated to the 53-man roster.
His impact in the NFL hasn't been felt much. He only has nine receptions to his name, and his identity isn't known as well as Janis', who on paper and in use at least performed like the cliched "project receiver." For what it's worth, Abbrederis, not Janis, was the outside receiver who started in place of Adams against the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs.
Throughout the playoffs, though, the former Badger had issues with concentration and made drops on short passes. Early on in Jones' career, the former San Jose State target had the same flaw, and he didn't come along as a consistent pass-catcher until after the team's Super Bowl XLV run.
If Abbrederis can tighten up his hands and stay on the field, he has a legitimate chance to push for the starting gig opposite Nelson in Week 1.
Trevor Davis
Davis is the ultimate wild card for this receiver unit. At California, in the Bear Raid offense, he only had to run a few routes in a wide-open system. While the other outside receivers on this team have at least two years' worth of NFL coaching under their belts, Davis' first shot to learn how to run routes will come this summer at the professional level.
When you look at Green Bay's roster in general, it's hard to figure out which receiver gets dropped off the team. In theory, the squad could take on seven receivers in 2016, but that's unlikely. With two receivers who thrive as inside players in Cobb and Ty Montgomery, it's safe to assume the franchise at least wants to be two deep in that role.
There are five outside receivers, though, in Nelson, Adams, Janis, Abbrederis and Davis, which is problematic in terms of numbers.
In all likelihood, one of these outside threats isn't making the team, and it's anyone's guess as to his identity. It will come down to battles in the preseason, age and special teams play. Davis, a 22-year-old, is younger than Janis and Abbrederis, plus he has two extra years on his rookie deal compared to the other trio of wideouts fighting for the roles beneath Nelson.
Not much is known about Davis outside of his on-paper potential. In many ways, he's similar to Janis. Prior to the combine, to which he was a surprise invite, everyone was talking about Kenny Lawler, an underclass declaration, as the Golden Bear receiver in the class. In four years at two schools, including the University of Hawaii, Davis only made 12 touchdown receptions.
In 2015, Davis had nine games in which he caught a maximum of three passes from the 2016 first overall pick, Jared Goff. Once Davis ran a legit 4.42-second 40-yard dash, the same mark Janis hit in 2014, the NFL went back and dug through tape of the receiver. At the end of the day, Davis was drafted 80 picks, about two-and-a-half rounds, before Lawler, who ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
When comparing Davis to former Thompson draft picks, Jennings sticks out as a similar on-paper athlete.
Name
Height
Weight
40
Vertical
Broad
Three-Cone
Shuttle
Trevor Davis
6'1"
188
4.42
38.5"
124"
6.60
4.22
Greg Jennings
5'11"
197
4.46
36.5"
117"
6.68
4.16
As a rookie, Jennings was able to post 45 receptions, 632 receiving yards and three touchdowns. It's not out of line to project Davis to hit those numbers should he surpass the other three outside receivers on the depth chart by September—a reasonable goal, even for a Day 3 target.
Conclusion
To say that there is a definitive answer, or even a general feel, as to which player will start as an outside receiver in Week 1 for the Green Bay Packers would be a flat-out lie.
Cobb is one of the most efficient slot receivers in NFL history. He's paid as such, and the Packers likely want to play him as such. That means someone else has to start opposite Nelson as the team's outside deep threat.
With that being said, while this might sound negative, assuming a soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver is going to recover perfectly from an ACL injury is a bit out of line. When considering the fact no one within three years of Nelson's age is receiving the type of money he's slated to make in 2017 and 2018, it's within the realm of possibility to claim Green Bay shouldn't just be in search for a starting receiver in 2016 but for two in 2017, when they can save $19.5 million over two years by cutting the aging wideout.
On paper, you can hope Adams, Abbrederis or Janis develop or that Davis is an instant draft steal for the franchise, but at the end of the day, Green Bay's front office has proved players need to earn their keep to stay on the roster. The Packers have four receivers seemingly fighting for three openings and one starting job in 2016.
In 2015, the first season the Packers didn't win the NFC North title since their Super Bowl XLV triumph, Green Bay did as well as their receivers would allow them. Early on in 2016, you'd expect defenses to test them in the exact same ways until they can prove they can win otherwise.
Because of the uncertainty of Nelson's long-term stability with the team, what happens during this preseason and early in the regular season will affect what the Rodgers Packers look like for the next half-decade or so. It's a volatile situation, but all of the characters have been unearthed, and we will just have to see how this story plays out.