The rise in UFC is rarely a vertical climb. It is usually filled with stops and starts, setbacks and recoveries. Like climbing Mount Everest, it often requires acclimation to the highest levels, forcing you to back down and regroup before retracing steps and ascending further. Throughout the modern history of mixed martial arts, this is how it's been—with few exceptions.
Count among those deviations the career of Conor McGregor, the Irishman who went from phenom to champion in record time and who, by the end of the year, may well complete a climb so dizzying it almost defies belief.
Less than three years ago, as reported by MMAjunkie, McGregor was broke and collecting social welfare in the Republic of Ireland; these days, he is undisputedly the biggest male star in MMA, having headlined two events over the last year that have drawn a combined 2 million buys, generating revenue of over $100 million in the process.
These types of rapid ascensions tend to produce conservatism, as risk gives way to protecting the newly found and hard-won status quo with the intent of ensuring every ounce of money and marketability is squeezed out of a fleeting prime.
It is an understandable approach, but it is not one for McGregor. Always the outlier, the 27-year-old UFC featherweight champion will attempt to write the next chapter of his saga on Saturday night with an unprecedented move, becoming the first reigning UFC titleholder to go up two weight classes as he takes on Nate Diaz in the main event of UFC 196.
The move is a risk almost entirely without reward; McGregor had planned to shift up one division to fight lightweight kingpin Rafael Dos Anjos in a champion vs. champion fight, which in itself is fairly rare. Instead, he had those plans scuttled when Dos Anjos broke his foot in training. So what does he do? Forget one division—make it two.
A fight with Diaz offers an immediate payday but also endangers his long-term earnings potential, which could be negatively impacted by a loss. A defeat might also slow down or even put an end to his plan of chasing multiple world titles.
Still, he moves forward. It is the kind of audacity that has made him a lightning rod for attention, while simultaneously forcing even his detractors to offer begrudging respect.
It is, in a strange way, madness.
"You play it safe, you don't take risks, you won't go all the way," he told the media following Wednesday's open workouts in Las Vegas. "I take risks, and that's why I go all the way."
This was it in a nutshell, McGregor's words escaping with that unmistakable Irish brogue, this time tinted with a hint of surprise in his voice as though it was so obvious to him he couldn't understand why it wasn't clear to the rest of us.
This is a man fueled by ambition, operating on multiple levels.
So how did he get here? McGregor intuitively understands the game far better than most fighters. For the most part, the current crop of athletes believe their work is done in the gym and during fight week. McGregor never stops. He is either training or promoting a fight or setting up rainy-day feuds. Sure, he is blessed with the gift of gab, but he wields it like a surgical scalpel, cutting his opponents, leaving wounds that force attention.
Consider all of the realistic, open rivalries he has ongoing that could produce him another monster payday: Dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone, Nick Diaz, Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar and Robbie Lawler. He's even called out heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. You'd be hard-pressed to find another fighter with as many as two natural rivals.
All of that ensures he stays in the headlines, leading to more attention, more bullseyes on his back and more eyeballs on his fights. In time, it becomes a self-feeding machine with all roads coming back to him.
Amazingly, it has been this way almost since the beginning.
The McGregor phenomenon was born in just 67 seconds. It took him that long to knock out Marcus Brimage on his UFC debut back in 2013. Immediately after, he was the talk of the fighting world. UFC president Dana White declared himself "blown away," and the Irish Independent announced McGregor had transformed into a "global superstar."
By the time of his second fight in August 2013, the UFC was including him in open workouts, a spot usually reserved for main eventers and former champs. McGregor fit right in.
It's been straight upward ever since, capping an undefeated featherweight run with a stunning 13-second knockout of longtime champion Jose Aldo in December.
Amazingly, even given this two-division jump, the fight with Diaz is being viewed by many as nothing more than a fun diversion before McGregor gets back to the challenge of chasing multiple belts. According to Odds Shark, he is a 1-5 favorite to win, leaving many to wonder what might be next.
While the Diaz fight is no gimme, a McGregor win would open up the world to him. Instead of going through Dos Anjos, as he originally planned, he could jump directly to Lawler, the UFC's welterweight champ, possibly at this summer's expected blockbuster show, UFC 200. In the build to the Diaz bout, McGregor called the idea of fighting Lawler "appealing."
If that 25-pound jump between title matches seems absurd, well, that's just the landscape McGregor has built for himself, one where the impossible is just a speed bump.
“I’m open to whatever he’s considering doing," UFC president Dana White said at the UFC 196 press conference on Thursday. He continued:
If he wants to fight at 170 and he wants to fight Robbie Lawler, Conor is tough to deny these days. Nobody’s ever done this—145 pounds going to 170—and it’s one of those things when you talk about these guys, the money’s in the bank and all the things are going on, they have all this opportunity. Conor really does step up and fight anybody, anywhere, anytime. It’s impressive, it’s fun and this is what makes you love the fight business.
Amazingly, there are knowledgeable people in the game who believe McGregor is capable of beating Lawler. Former UFC heavyweight Brendan Schaub is one. So is professional MMA gambler Luca Fury.
If they are right, and McGregor does it, he would stake a claim no one who has walked through the Octagon doors has ever made before him. And once he does that, where does it end? Three world titles? Four? Objectively, it all seems irrational, but when McGregor talks, he has a way of convincing you of the impossible.
After all, here we are. A few short years ago, he was collecting welfare. In the near future, legendary status awaits.