The dust of the offseason signings has settled, and for the most part, teams know who they’re going to be during the 2015-16 season. Now, the questions for Chicago Bulls fans are: How will things shake out in the Eastern Conference, and do the Bulls have a chance at coming out of it?
Looking at the Bulls compared to each of their conference opponents suggests they have a good chance of getting to the conference finals, but further than that is unlikely. Here is how Chicago compares to its chief rivals for the throne.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is the heavy favorite to come out of the East and justifiably. The Cavs are the defending conference champs, and they got there not being at full strength.
How good is Cleveland? Last season, after making trades to acquire Timofey Mozgov and J.R. Smith, its starting five was virtually unbeatable. When those two teamed up with Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and Kevin Love, the Cavs were a ridiculous 29-4. That translates to 72 wins over a full season.
They are already returning four of the starting five, and the fifth, J.R. Smith, has a deal coming, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.com.
And the scariest part is they could be even better. The Cavs' success came in spite of playing slow. The chart below shows the relationship between pace and offensive rating. Overall, running faster tends to improve offensive performance. This is what how Cleveland ranked against the league starting from Jan. 15, according to NBA.com.
Its offense is so efficient because its true shooting percentage is so high (the number listed below the team icons).
In their second season together, the Cavs should be more accustomed to one another, and that familiarity should help them push the pace more. For example, the Cavs were only 20th in fast-break points, and they have one of the best outlet passers in the business in Love along with two fantastic finishers in James and Irving.
Perhaps, if the Monstars come and kidnap James in a super-insane crossover remake of Space Jam and Celtic Pride, the Cavs are going to be beatable. But it’s tough to see another team beating them if everyone's there and healthy.
If anyone in the East can, though, it’s the Bulls.
All that depends on head coach Fred Hoiberg’s new offense, which emphasizes both pace and space. And typically when we discuss “space” in the analytics world, there’s a tendency to focus just on shooting three-point shots. But threes are the way to create space, not the goal itself.
The end objective is to create space in the paint because that opens up avenues to the rim. And, even in the analytics age, a shot inside the little arc is more valuable on average than one outside the bigger one. Based on numbers at Basketball-Reference.com, an attempt at the rim is worth 1.26 points while a three-point toss results in an average of 1.05.
As indicated by the graph on the left, there is a correlation between points scored from three and inside the restricted area. The one on the right shows that, in turn, there’s also a relationship between points scored in those two optimal zones and offensive rating.
Click on the team in either chart or the legend to highlight it and reveal more information.
So how does this apply to the Bulls? During Las Vegas Summer League, we got a view of what the offense will look like under new coach Fred Hoiberg, and Chicago was running a lot of high pick-and-roll action that resulted in enormous space.
For example, look at this play where Vander Blue gets room to operate:
Notice how not a single player on either team has a foot in the paint:
Having that kind of space to operate can allow Derrick Rose to return to All-Star form, if not his original MVP form, as I argued for Today’s Fastbreak. That in turn can start opening up all kinds of opportunities for the rest of the offense, including more threes from Mike Dunleavy, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Doug McDermott.
If Hoiball can shape the Bulls into an elite offense; if Mirotic can play major minutes at the 4, where he was far more successful; if Taj Gibson can be back to his 2013-14 form after his ankle surgery; if Joakim Noah can get his springiness back; if Jimmy Butler can continue to improve on his breakout year; if Tony Snell and Doug McDermott can break out; and, most importantly, if Rose can return close to his MVP form, the Bulls have shot at beating the Cavs.
But that's only if all those ifs come true. If they don’t, the Bulls simply won’t have the offense to run with the Cavaliers. It’s taken superteams, such as last year’s Golden State Warriors and the 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs, to beat James. In an optimal world, the Bulls can be that, but they need every piece to fall right.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are the upstart team and apart from the Cavaliers pose the biggest threat to the Bulls.
ESPN.com’s Bradford Doolittle ranked them the best young core in the NBA, arguing:
The Bucks cemented this spot when they signed free-agent Monroe this summer. Monroe doesn't turn 26 until June of next season, yet he likely will be the oldest member of a Milwaukee starting lineup that will grow together over the next few years. Middleton has already established himself as one of the top 10 shooting guards in the league, and if we were re-selecting the 2013 draft, Antetokounmpo might be the first player taken (though it would probably be Utah's Rudy Gobert). And these numbers are almost certainly underselling Parker, whose rookie numbers don't give him a great baseline from which to project.
The Bucks are loooooooooong. In fact, adding up the wingspans listed by DraftExpress, if they stood fingertip to fingertip, they could reach up to 35’1”.
To put another way, if they spread evenly across the court, both hands outstretched, there wouldn’t be more than a two-foot separation between any two players or player and sideline.
That has a lot to do their tenacious defense last year. They led the league forced turnovers with 17.4, and their 99.3 defensive rating was second-best. Now with Greg Monroe added via free agency and Jabari Parker returning from a torn ACL, the Bucks are going to have more offense.
Great defense can make any team a tough out in a seven-game series, and the Bucks could have the best in the league next year. Chicago should be hoping that the Cavaliers draw Milwaukee in the playoffs. It’s not that the Bucks would oust the Cavaliers, but they would make them work harder than any other second-round team would.
Plus, Milwaukee would have a realistic shot at upsetting the Bulls, although it would be an upset.
Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks are an enigma. Were they for real last year, or did they overachieve? They had that unbelievable perfect run in January, and at that time they were looking like a legitimate threat to win it all.
However, once they lost, they weren’t nearly as successful for the remainder of the season. In fact, how they fared before and after the streak compared to the rest of the league is telling:
Only the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns dropped off more over the second half of the season. And, while the Hawks were still winning, they were far from an extraordinary team. Some of that is due to a smattering of injuries scattered throughout. They were 7-6 in games where one of their starters missed.
But that indicates that the Hawks are a well-oiled machine that does not sit well with wrenches being tossed into it. This offseason, they lost DeMarre Carroll, who was their glue guy.
They also got Tiago Splitter, a legitimate center who already knows the offense because of coach Mike Budenholzer’s San Antonio roots, but he doesn’t fill that wing void Carroll’s departure created.
They probably weren't as good as their record last year. Their expected record at Basketball-Reference.com was 56-26, four games fewer than what they won. Add in the roster fluctuation, and it’s unlikely they match last season’s performance.
A win total in the low 50s and a second-round exit are reasonable predictions. I don’t see them getting past Cleveland or Chicago in a seven-game series. There’s too much room for dings and dents to manifest in the postseason, and the Hawks are susceptible to them.
Miami Heat
Stephen A. Smith from ESPN.com thinks the Miami Heat will be in the Eastern Conference Finals. He told the Freeman and Fox Show of 560 WQAM in Miami (h/t CBS Miami):
I personally believe that the Miami Heat can easily be in the Eastern Conference Finals going up against the Cleveland Cavaliers next year. I don’t think they would win that matchup. I would give Cleveland the edge if Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving and LeBron James — all three of them — are healthy but it’s a match I would crave to see.
Smith couldn’t be more wrong.
The Heat cannot “easily” be in the Eastern Conference Finals. In fact, it’s highly improbable that they make it there at all.
Let’s step back from the offseason hype and consider this objectively for a moment, shall we?
First, the Heat are supposed to be so much better because they have Chris Bosh back, and he’ll complement a starting five with Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside.
And to be fair, the Heat were thrashed by injuries last year, putting 31 different starting lineups on the court.
The logic is, now that they’re all back and healthy, the Heat will finally have all five playing together, and the world is their oyster.
However, that narrative doesn’t stack up with what happened when they had the majority of their starting five together:
Will having all five together help? Sure, but how much? They were 9-10 with everyone but Bosh in their starting five. Is Bosh with worth 20 wins? Not when you consider that with various trios he played with, the Heat were a combined 15-18.
We’re expected to believe that if everyone is together, the Heat are suddenly going to be contenders? And while Bosh’s health problems are thankfully resolved, he’s still going to have some rust at the start of the season.
Wade’s knees are still going to be an issue. He’s shown flashes (pun intended) of his former self, but he’s not able to consistently maintain that level of play. He’s going to be 34, and his player efficiency rating has fallen four consecutive seasons. Last year, at 21.4, it was at its lowest since he was a rookie.
And Deng’s career still got the ca-ca Thibodeaued out of it in Chicago. His 15.5 PER was far from overwhelming.
Dragic’s 16.6 points and 5.3 assists per game playing in Miami were solid but short of spectacular.
Whiteside was highly effective once he cracked the rotation, averaging 13.4 points on 63 percent shooting, 11.2 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. He’s the DeAndre Jordan of the East but more effective away from the rim.
However, he’s not someone to build a team around. A defense, maybe, but not a team.
Josh McRoberts has value. So does first-round pick Justise Winslow. And Amar’e Stoudemire was much more productive in reduced minutes last year, posting a 22.3 PER with the Dallas Mavericks.
You can lay out the same kind “if” list for the Heat that I did with the Bulls, but last year the Bulls’ floor was 50 wins. And they came a play away from going up 3-1 against the Cavaliers in the second round. The Heat’s was 37 wins while missing the postseason entirely.
There’s a chance everything goes right for Miami and that nothing does for the Bulls. And it doesn’t have to be quite that extreme for the Heat to beat Chicago in a series but close to it. The Bulls just have more talent at this point and weirdly fewer health concerns.
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Then there’s the rest of the East. The Toronto Raptors stole Carroll from Atlanta and Cory Joseph from the Spurs, but they lost incumbent Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams to the Los Angeles Lakers. The current rendition of the team hasn’t won a playoff series yet, and it probably won’t this year.
The promising backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal leads the Washington Wizards. But the frontcourt with Nene and Marcin Gortat (32 and 31, respectively) continues to age, and the Wizards haven’t done much to address that. The loss of Paul Pierce to the Los Angeles Clippers is going to hurt.
And then you have a small bevy of improved teams that are still short of being a threat to make the second round. The Indiana Pacers have Paul George back, but without David West and Roy Hibbert, they’re going to be finding a new identity for the first part of the season.
The Detroit Pistons are being shaped into the Stan Van Gundy image. And they could push for around 45 wins. But they need a year of seasoning before they step into contender status. The Boston Celtics won’t be awful.
But there are no more real contenders in the East. The odds are the Bulls and Cavaliers will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals and that the Bulls will once again fall to LeBron James.
Stats for this article were obtained from Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.