Based on everything we’ve seen, $70 million over four years is a sizable overpay for Enes Kanter. There’s no getting around that.
Nevertheless, the Oklahoma City Thunder front office made the polarizing decision to match Kanter’s hefty offer sheet, and all reports suggest it was a fairly easy choice for general manager Sam Presti. Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman chatted with Presti shortly after news of the Portland Trail Blazers’ offer broke, and Presti confirmed his intention to match any offer:
It has not been a popular move, however. Fans and analysts—like Grantland’s Andrew Sharp and CBS Sports’ Matt Moore, to name a couple—have criticized the max contract, and it’s not hard to see their reasoning. Kanter may be young and skilled, but he was also literally the worst defensive center in the league last year according to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus, rating worse than defensive luminaries like Andrea Bargnani and Matt Bonner.
In a vacuum, shelling out that kind of dough for a one-way player seems foolish, but it makes sense for the Thunder given their current circumstances. The reasoning doesn’t make it less painful to see those contract figures, but OKC was faced with the prospect of retaining Kanter at his lofty cap numbers or losing him for nothing. Between the team’s standing as a legitimate contender, the ballooning salary cap and the impending free agency of Kevin Durant, Presti decided Kanter was a luxury worth keeping.
Kanter’s Unique Skill Set for the Roster
It’s easy to look at OKC’s roster and determine that, with Durant and Russell Westbrook in tow, the team doesn’t need more scoring—especially at Kanter’s price tag. When you have two of the best offensive players on the planet, you don’t really need to spend a chunk of money on another player who also needs shots/touches.
That’s a reasonable conclusion, but we’ve seen the Thunder offense stall out in the playoffs when opposing defenses load up on the superstar duo. That’s partly because of former head coach Scott Brooks’ isolation-heavy offense, but it didn’t help that the team has lacked a reliable shot-creator since the James Harden trade. Almost every other player on the roster depends on Westbrook and Durant to create offense. The exceptions are D.J. Augustin and Dion Waiters, neither of whom are particularly efficient.
On the contrary, Kanter has proven to be a versatile offensive player capable of generating buckets. In his 26 games in Oklahoma, the Turkish center averaged 18.7 points on 57 percent shooting from the floor. As an added benefit, he’s comfortable from the charity stripe, connecting on 75 percent of his free throws over his career.
Yes, that scoring figure is going to decrease when he plays on a healthy Thunder team, but the fact remains that he can produce points when needed. He can be an offensive anchor off the bench, and he can accomplish this feat in a variety of ways.
He’s the only big man on the roster with a semblance of a true low-post game. Steven Adams has flashed a nice touch around the hoop and the ability to finish dump-offs and putbacks, but you can’t throw the ball down to him on the block. While Kanter post-ups are not going to be the focal point of head coach Billy Donovan’s offense, that kind of versatility is an extra weapon to utilize in the postseason.
Even though Kanter can score with his back to the basket, he was actually more effective in the pick-and-roll last season as he showed some strong chemistry with Westbrook. Per NBA.com, plays with Kanter as the roll man resulted in 1.1 points per possession, putting him in the top quarter of the league in that regard (minimum 50 possessions).
Lastly, he’s a tremendous rebounder, particularly on the offensive end. With OKC, he averaged five offensive boards per game and grabbed 17.5 percent of available offensive rebounds—both figures that ranked behind only Andre Drummond last year. We all marveled at the impact of Tristan Thompson’s offensive rebounding in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ playoff run, and Kanter was a better offensive glass cleaner than Thompson last season (plus, Kanter can actually score off those situations).
Not all rebounds are created equally, however. Thanks to the mountain of data generated by SportVU cameras, we now have an idea of how hard players are fighting for rebounds. Kanter was among the league’s best at hauling in contested rebounds, too, according to NBA.com. He ranked third in contested rebounds per game (defined as rebounds where an opponent was within 3.5 feet) and in percentage of total rebounds that were contested.
Did the Thunder NEED to keep Kanter? No. They have plenty of depth in the frontcourt and would have been fine without him. But you cannot deny the unique blend of skills Kanter adds to the OKC depth chart. Predictability and a lack of weapons beyond the dynamic duo have hurt the Thunder in the past. By re-signing Kanter, they added another scoring option and gave Coach Donovan the flexibility to change his style and keep opposing coaches off balance.
Asset Management in the New Financial Landscape
Viewing players and their contracts as assets is usually a smart way to operate if you’re an NBA front office. There are some instances where this calculating perspective doesn’t apply, like the Denver Nuggets’ recent trade of Ty Lawson. They traded him when his value was at its nadir, but they decided getting him out of the locker room and away from their point guard of the future (Emmanuel Mudiay) was worth the minimal return.
As a general rule, however, it makes sense to avoid losing assets if possible. It’s what prompted the trade for Kanter in the first place. It was clear Reggie Jackson wanted to leave and that he’d probably command a salary OKC didn’t want to match. So Presti flipped him for a trade package with Kanter as the centerpiece. When faced with the prospect of losing Kanter for nothing, Presti chose to retain the talented young center.
The salary is unsightly for this season, as Kanter has the sixth-highest cap hit among centers—higher than guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Joakim Noah, Tyson Chandler and Al Horford. But have you heard the salary cap is about to skyrocket over the next few seasons? The contract won’t look like such a massive overpay when that happens.
With the cap jumping so significantly, Kanter’s deal takes up a smaller percentage of total payroll in the last three years. Over that time frame, Kanter’s cap hit is approximately 18 percent of the cap—the equivalent of around $12 million for the 2015-16 season. That’s much easier to digest and, more importantly, won’t be too difficult to trade if it comes to that.
If Kanter improves on the defensive end, the deal will look good. Even if he doesn’t, it will be a mild overpay by 2017—not a terrible one. The sticker shock is understandable, but the cap hits aren’t that bad once you move past this season.
For a capped out, small-market team with no history of luring major free agents, it makes sense to hold on to young talent—even if you have to overpay (significantly) for one season. That is even truer for the Thunder as they chase a championship, especially given the upgrades made by fellow Western Conference contenders this summer.
Room for Improvement
Kanter is not merely a bad defender. He’s an atrocious one who can’t play major minutes in a playoff series without getting exploited as a defensive liability. Nobody doubts Kanter’s offensive game, but all the criticisms of the max contract stem from his abysmal defense.
But let’s not forget that Kanter is still only 23 years old. Defense is where most young big men struggle to adjust to life in the NBA, and OKC’s decision to keep Kanter is made in the hopes that he can get his act together on that end of the court.
That optimism is not totally ridiculous. Expecting Kanter to become an All-Defensive center is unrealistic, but Kanter has the foot speed and size to become an adequate defender. That improvement is obviously not a given, but the Thunder have a history of strong player development, and Presti is most likely banking on that to spark Kanter’s defensive development.
Furthermore, Kanter has a perfect mentor to help in that regard. Nick Collison—like Kanter—is not particularly athletic, but he’s still a plus defender because of his intelligence and effort. Collison talked to Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman about how Kanter needs to improve on defense:
[Kanter]’s a young guy who still doesn’t have a ton of experience. A big part of defending, especially as a big, is recognition of different things that happen on the court and being able to communicate what’s going on to the other player to get into your coverage.
I think a training camp with us and doing the kind of things we’re trying to do will help. And just making it a priority. He’ll have to make it a priority. Then the teaching and the training camp and just the repetition over and over, it can make a big difference for a young player.
Kanter seems to be taking that advice to heart, as he told Slater of his plan to spend to his summer working with a point guard on pick-and-roll coverages. We’ll have to see whether or not Kanter actually has the focus to get better, but any improvement makes the contract look better.
The Looming Shadow of Kevin Durant’s Free Agency
As with every other decision made by OKC over the last few years, it has to be examined through the lens of Durant’s free agency. Two aspects of that media circus apply to the Kanter decision. First is the perception of OKC if it let Kanter walk. Maybe Durant would recognize that the contract was inflated, and maybe he wouldn’t hold a grudge against the OKC front office for not matching.
But he must have watched as the owners of the Golden State Warriors didn’t flinch when it came to re-signing Draymond Green. Sure, they traded David Lee to ease the luxury tax payments, but the Warriors will still pay a hefty tax bill to keep their championship core together. Durant must also be watching as Dan Gilbert continues to rack up gigantic payrolls to maximize the title window of Cleveland’s own star, LeBron James.
Even though Kanter’s contract is more than he’s worth, at least OKC avoids looking cheap in the summer before Durant becomes an unrestricted free agent with plenty of suitors.
The other Durant-related issue is that the Thunder’s title window is now. Periods of championship contention can evaporate instantaneously in the NBA (just ask the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers). OKC’s may end after this year if Durant leaves. Even if he doesn’t leave, who knows what will happen when Westbrook and Serge Ibaka hit free agency the following year?
You have to capitalize on any opportunity to win a championship, and re-signing Kanter shows the Thunder are serious about making the most of the upcoming season. They could have survived without Kanter, but he could also play an important role in a title run.
Note: All statistics are from Basketball Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise noted. All contract information is from Spotrac.