Vincenzo Nibali's 2014 Tour de France victory was as near flawless a mastering of the three-week race as you are likely to see. His initiative-seizing victory on Stage 2's hilly climbs into Sheffield was followed three days later by a brave, bold attack over the cobbles—one which saw him retain his yellow jersey while putting big time into rivals for the general classification.
The Astana team rider would temporarily lose the maillot jaune to Tony Gallopin later on but retained it permanently after dominant displays in the mountains, winning three more stages. However, in the minds of some, the absence of key rivals Alberto Contador, Chris Froome (injured earlier in the race) and Nairo Quintana (rested after winning the Giro d'Italia) detracted from the Italian's win.
A year later, it is the Tour's sprinters—among them Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Alexander Kristoff and Peter Sagan—who may find their own successes minimised as the year's second Grand Tour progresses. Team Giant-Alpecin's decision to leave home Marcel Kittel—winner of four stages in each of the last two years—could threaten the placement of an unfair and unjustified asterisk over the forthcoming battles between the race's quick men.
Kittel's battle to recover form and fitness after illness kept him off his bike for much of 2015 forced his team into the tough choice, one he was understandably disappointed by (detailed in the statement linked to above).
Along with the less explosive but more consistent point hound Sagan, the German has been a welcome addition to the battle for wins and the points classification's green jersey in the last few years. Challenging the previous dominance of Cavendish and to a lesser extent Greipel, his stunningly powerful charges across the line are a sight to behold.
It is undeniably a shame he did not start this year's Tour in the Netherlands and therefore will not be challenging as the race heads into France. The charming, well-mannered 27-year-old has been a welcome representative for the peloton as it tries to live in a new-doping free era. The intrigue over how his contests with the aforementioned competitors would have shaped up will be missed, as will the spectacle of his challenges.
Unlike Nibali, who was able to claim greater toughness outlasting Contador and Froome (as intrinsic a part of stage racing as any quality), the sprinters of the 2015 edition will have to accept an essence of what-might-have-been will hang over their efforts of the next three weeks.
Yet, the significance of the Tour de France is such that history will not pay too much attention to anyone not there.
As Cavendish said on the eve of the race, according to Cycling Weekly's Gregor Brown, securing just one victory in the event is monumental. "I've won stages in many Tours, I'd like to keep winning," the 30-year-old said. "One stage makes a rider’s career, let alone multiple stages."
If the weather-induced climax to Sunday's thrilling second stage across coastal areas of the Netherlands is anything to go by, the competition behind these attempts will not be diminished one iota.
Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan were three in a sizable group that used a day plagued/enhanced (delete as applicable if you are a cyclist or a fan) by crosswinds and rain to escape a minute down the road. With a chance for Tony Martin to get in yellow and also aid Rigoberto Uran's little-discussed overall chances, Cavendish's Etixx-QuickStep team joined Sagan's Tinkoff-Saxo (working for Contador) and Sky (pulling for Froome) in leading the efforts that forced and sustained the split.
The GC ramifications were that early yellow jersey wearer Rohan Dennis (BMC) and overall contenders—including Nibali, Thibaut Pinot (FDJ.fr) and Quintana (Movistar)—all lost time ahead of an already daunting first week. In the process, plenty of others who would have aimed to compete in a bunch sprint were left behind, too—Katusha's Kristoff and Cofidis' Nacer Bouhanni included.
Led out by team-mate Mark Renshaw, Cavendish had the initial jump on Greipel and Sagan in the home stretch to the finish line on the reclaimed, water-surrounded land of Neeltje Jans.
Having been well protected by his Lotto-Soudal team, Greipel was in a good position to time his kick and edge ahead of Cavendish, who had gone at least a few metres too soon. The German stormed ahead as his former team-mate's burst receded, sustaining just enough momentum to pip the Slovakian champion Sagan at the line.
"With a headwind finish ideally I’d want to go with less than 200m to go, but I had to wind up off his [Renshaw’s] wheel with more than 300m," Cavendish recounted to Cycling Weekly's Richard Abraham. Fabian Cancellara beating him to third meant Martin also lost out on wearing yellow heading into Monday's Belgian stage.
There were exceptions in 2009 and 2012 (and the 2013 Giro), but the Manx Missile has generally grown into Grand Tours. He will hope that is the case again this year, looking to the flatter, sprinter-friendly stages of five and seven to open his account and add to his 25 Tour stage wins.
The battle for green jersey points will feature beyond those stages in the first week, too. Kristoff and Sagan will hope to be contesting with Cavendish and others but will also hope to maximise their suitability to the Classics-friendly (and yellow jersey contender-worrying) terrain that fills the gaps in the coming days.
It is Greipel, though, who gets to enjoy the first bragging rights and reflect most positively on the job done by his team. "We tried to stay a bit under the radar, but did our bit when the echelons were formed," he said proudly to Lotto-Soudal's official website, also reflecting on the individual achievement:
This was the first stage I could win, it’s magnificent that I did. This is a fantastic reward for the team and me. In the Tour everyone starts from zero, it are the results here that count. This determines if your season is successful or not. A victory at the Tour is at least as double important as anywhere else.
Kittel is missed, and hopefully he will still find reasons and opportunities to make something of 2015. But while the speedsters gracing the Tour de France will not enjoy the kudos of beating arguably their sport's fastest finisher, there is still plenty for them and us to get excited about on the roads winding their way to the glorious final assault down the Champs-Elysees.
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