Until quite recently, it seemed that Ilkay Gundogan would join Bayern Munich this summer. However, a Tuesday report in Bild (in German) claimed that despite advanced talks between player and club, the move had reached a standstill.
The reasons given for the move's failure were that the Borussia Dortmund midfielder had demanded more money than Bayern were willing to pay him as salary, and that the club's bosses were divided over whether he'd bring enough quality to truly improve the German record champions.
According to the report, Matthias Sammer and Michael Reschke remain convinced in Gundogan's quality, but Pep Guardiola and (predictably) Karl-Heinz Rummenigge concluded after the player's poor performance in Saturday's DFB-Pokal final that he was not the right man.
Gundogan indeed was quite disappointing in a big game against Wolfsburg, and despite playing consistently throughout the second round of the 2014-15 season, he hasn't reached his best since returning from a back injury that kept him sidelined for well over a year. The concerns over what he can bring to the table are legitimate. Yet Bayern may later regret passing on their opportunity to sign him.
Critical to the Gundogan discussion is how needed he is: Are Bayern lacking the qualities he can bring to the table, and is there another player they can target who could offer the same?
For the last two seasons, Bayern have seen an aging central midfield grow older and slower. Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Xabi Alonso now are well past their best years; the former two are injury-prone and the latter will turn 34 years of age this fall. They all offer rather similar characteristics on the ball and have their limits in possession, able to distribute the ball in deep areas but lacking the power to bring the ball into the final third and the quickness of mind and quality of touch to reliably create scoring chances in and around the penalty area. And in defense, they all lack pace.
Sebastian Rode has the physical qualities to play in the Bayern midfield, but is not the kind of player whose touch can be relied upon against elite opposition. David Alaba has physicality and skill, but his one-footedness can be a problem and he is much better suited to a defensive game. In Guardiola's team he's developed into a defensive all-rounder, serving as auxiliary right-back, center-back and defensive midfielder more or less simultaneously. It's a hugely challenging role that he somehow manages to fulfill, but one that makes it impossible for him to be the key man building up play from deep areas.
Thiago Alcantara is the most dynamic midfielder Bayern have right now, and indeed, the German champions have a gem in the Spain international. He may not be the most physically imposing midfielder, but Thiago is no shrinking violet and has plenty of ball-winners around him. Xavi was able to become perhaps the best midfielder in history without offering much in terms of defensive ability, and Thiago could yet become a legend for his quality on the ball. He can dribble and distribute the ball at any depth of the pitch. He's creative enough to play as a No. 10 and can even finish himself. Quite simply, Thiago is a total footballer at least in possession, and at 24 years of age, he's the type of player Bayern can plan to work with for years to come.
The problem with Thiago is that he's extremely injury-prone, having played in just 38 games (per Transfermarkt) in two seasons at Bayern. Even when fit, quality opposition can focus on cutting off his supply of the ball or at least stopping him from bringing the play forward. Barcelona did this brilliantly in the Champions League semifinals, which exposed Bayern's lack of another skilled option to bring the ball forward. The presence of a Gundogan-type player would have been extremely useful in those games.
Looking around Europe, there aren't many options that Bayern can reasonably pursue. Marco Verratti or Paul Pogba would cost a fortune, while Arturo Vidal would be very hard to pry away from Juventus, especially if the Champions League finalists sell his French international teammate. All are attainable for a price, but if Bayern are to sign Angel Di Maria or Antoine Griezmann, they certainly won't pay another record transfer fee in the same summer. And an attacker has to be a higher priority.
There's no question that Gundogan is nowhere near the level he was at in 2012-13, and that any team that would sign him would accept considerable risk. He could well flop. On the other hand, to write him off for his Pokal performance would be a mistake, just as it would be a mistake to write off Thiago for disappointing against Barca. Gundogan has a record as a big-game performer: He was the best central midfielder in the 2012-13 Champions League, having outplayed Yaya Toure and Xabi Alonso in their primes. Even in a losing effort in the final he was immense, and showed his leadership and calm nerve as he (and not Robert Lewandowski, Marco Reus or Mario Gotze) dispatched the penalty that leveled the score at 1-1.
What Gundogan needs more than anything right now is a strong and stabile club that can support his resurgence, and a full preseason to integrate. He hasn't lost his touch and skill; these are natural factors. And still 24 years of age, he is approaching his physical prime. It's not as though he's a broken man in the twilight of his career. Odds are that sooner or later, Gundogan will come good.
Bayern may indeed find the Germany international too expensive to invest in and may well not secure his signature, but their other options are hardly attractive. They have an aging midfield and youngsters like Pierre Hojbjerg and Joshua Kimmich are still at least a few steps from the top level. And any truly qualified alternative in the transfer market would be exorbitantly expensive. Gundogan may be a risk, but the greater risk may be in passing on the opportunity to sign him.
@Mr_Bundesliga