San Francisco 49ers’ general manager Trent Baalke has overseen five NFL drafts. He has added 48 players to the 49ers’ roster in the draft, nearly an entire squad. He’s now in the upper-half of NFL general managers, at least when it comes to experience.
This will be his first draft in many years, however, where he is the unquestioned master of the draft room. While he had control of the 53-man roster during the Jim Harbaugh era, there was always a bit of a power struggle between the coach and general manager. Now that Harbaugh is gone, that element is out of the room—this is Baalke’s team, for better or for worse. Before Harbaugh was hired, Baalke was just the vice president of player personnel, taking over for the departed Scot McCloughan. Now, he’s the undisputed head chef in the kitchen.
We can use Baalke’s draft history to try to predict what the 49ers will do in the 2015 draft. We have enough of his history to know his tendencies, and he has enough power that it’s his tendencies, as opposed to the whims of Jed York or Jim Tomsula, that will be the final deciding factor on draft day.
Let’s look back at Baalke’s draft history and see what it can tell us about his tendencies.
Position Selection
Looking at the last five years, we can see a couple trends in Baalke’s draft strategy by position. Here is the breakdown of all 48 picks he’s made, sorted by position. It lists the number of players selected as well as the value of those selections, based on Jimmy Johnson’s classic draft-value chart. The percentage column indicates what percent of Baalke’s total draft value he’s spent on each position.
Baalke has spent a ton of draft picks anchoring the defensive backfield. His 12 defensive back selections since 2010 are second to only the St. Louis Rams when it comes to restocking the position, and only the New York Jets have used more than Baalke’s two first-round picks there. This is not a huge surprise, considering the 49ers have entirely replaced their starting secondary over the past two seasons, but do the 49ers draft a lot of defensive backs because they let a lot go in free agency, or did they let a lot go in free agency because they were comfortable drafting defensive backs?
Many of the 49ers’ picks at the position have been late-round draft picks. Five of the eight cornerbacks Baalke has taken have come in the fifth round or later, as have two of the four safeties. That’s why the offensive line has seen Baalke spend more value, despite taking three fewer players. Baalke’s first draft, in 2010, saw him use two first-round selections on the line, taking Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. Those remain two of Baalke’s highest three picks, with only the 2011 selection of Aldon Smith with the seventh pick being a more valuable selection.
Overall, then, offensive line has been the position where Baalke has consistently drafted the highest.
More than half of his offensive line picks have come in the first four rounds, including both of his picks last year, Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas. This is consistent with a “build from the inside out” roster philosophy—restocking the offensive line each and every season, so that consistency in the blocking game can spark the offense. This led to a great deal of the 49ers’ success over the last few seasons, with the failure of the offensive line due to injury in 2014 in large part sparking the regression of the team as a whole.
Past the offensive line, Baalke has shown a desire to bolster his linebacking corps, especially in the third round. Baalke has used half of his third-round picks on linebackers, and they’ve all been good ones—Chris Borland, NaVorro Bowman and Corey Lemonier. Baalke likes targeting linebackers who have slipped for one reason another, such as Borland’s size or Bowman’s off-field incidents in college.
Perhaps, then, the 49ers will look at TCU linebacker Paul Dawson, who had a horrible combine, or Miami’s Denzel Perryman, who is dramatically undersized, as value pickups in the third round.
When it comes to defensive backs, they're usually picked in the later rounds. Yes, the 49ers have used their last two first-round picks on defensive backs, but the 49ers have used a sixth- or seventh-round pick on a defensive back in every year under Baalke. Baalke seems to like bringing a bunch of bodies into camp at the position and have them complete for key roles.
Much is made of Baalke’s apparent poor judge of wide receivers, but that’s mostly based on one failed pick—first-rounder A.J. Jenkins from 2012.
Baalke’s other four picks at the position have come in the fourth round or later, so it’s not really appropriate to suggest that Baalke keeps swinging and missing at the position. Rather, he hasn’t attempted to identify a great receiver since that 2012 draft.
Missing on Jenkins—who at the time was considered a legitimate vertical threat with good separation ability—is certainly Baalke’s biggest miss at this point, but hardly indicative of his ability to find a player at the position. This draft will likely see the 49ers address the position before the third round, so the jury’s still out.
The one other position Baalke drafts with regularity is running back. Baalke has taken one—and exactly one—running back in every one of his drafts, regardless of need.
Considering he just used a second-round pick on Carlos Hyde last season, it would seem unlikely that Baalke would use an early pick on a running back, but a repeat of a sixth-rounder like Anthony Dixon would seem in the cards. Baalke likes stocking up on depth, as it allows the team to use a “three-headed approach” at the position—a group of backs who all bring something different to the table. To keep that up, it's necessary to regularly add new talent, and Baalke historically has done that.
Need or Best Player Available?
How much is Baalke’s draft strategy is based on filling needs, and how much is just taking the most talented players left on the board? Without access to the team’s internal draft boards, we will never know for sure, but what we can do is look at what the media reported as the team’s needs leading up to the draft, and how Baalke and company filled them. How does Baalke’s draft strategy match up with public perception of the team’s needs?
By going back through the archives on sites such as ESPN and CBS, I’ve re-constructed what was perceived as the team needs leading up to each of Baalke’s drafts and ranked them in order of frequency. Here’s how Baalke filled them:
2010 saw Baalke skip the quarterback position entirely, deciding to roll the dice and stick with Alex Smith. With that one exception, however, Baalke used his first three picks on the three biggest needs, in order, shoring up the offensive line for the next five years. He then went off the board and grabbed a talented player in Bowman, who had fallen due to character concerns.
The same drill was repeated in 2011. One of the top four needs—defensive end, in this case—was ignored, as he trusted Ray McDonald to take over the starting role in 2011, which worked out quite well until last season.
The remaining top three needs were addressed with the top three picks, though they opted to take Aldon Smith over Blaine Gabbert with the first pick, a decision which is supported quite well in hindsight. It wasn’t until after those first three picks that Baalke went off board, drafting Kendall Hunter—and Hunter, of course, remains on the team to this day.
2012 was Baalke’s biggest failure as a draft, with only Joe Looney remaining on the roster at this point. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was the first draft where Baalke’s strategy diverged from common wisdom. Baalke used his second pick on LaMichael James, despite the 49ers already having Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter in the backfield. James didn’t work out.
In retrospect, the 49ers didn’t have a lot of other options at James’ pick—the best player picked immediately after James was receiver Reuben Randle, which would have been a poor pick considering the 49ers took A.J. Jenkins in round one—but this was the first time Baalke went away from what was considered the team’s needs.
Baalke returned to a more familiar draft strategy in 2013. He mostly eschewed the cornerback position in the draft, trusting Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown to hold down the fort for a season, and not addressing the position until the seventh round.
Baalke also apparently disagreed somewhat with the general population’s draft needs—he addressed safety with the first pick, but then dipped around and filled lesser needs with players who dropped. Like his first drafts, however, Baalke refrained from going away from needs until about halfway through the draft, when he grabbed Quinton Patton.
Thanks to the sheer number of picks the 49ers had in 2014, Baalke filled all the team’s reported needs and went on a spree to fill future needs.
In theory, Carlos Hyde is a replacement for Frank Gore, Chris Borland a replacement for Patrick Willis and Brandon Thomas a replacement for Mike Iupati. Obviously, the Borland-Willis idea didn’t really work out, but when you have more than twice as many picks as you have needs, you can look to the future like that.
This isn't particularly useful information for 2015, as the 49ers have far more needs and far fewer picks, but it does show that Baalke tries to fix problems before they become problems, drafting players before they're needed in the lineup.
So, from all that, what can we see?
First of all, there seems to be high odds that Baalke will look at a position on the roster that the general public feels has a hole, and disagree. Perhaps that’s thinking that Bruce Ellington or Quinton Patton will develop into an adequate third receiver. Perhaps that’s looking at Michael Wilhoite and deciding that that’s really enough depth at inside linebacker. Or maybe the position of general need that he’ll ignore is cornerback.
Yes, the 49ers lost Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox this offseason, but they added four cornerbacks in the draft just last year. Picks like Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker weren’t for last season; they were intended to shore up the 49ers’ depth for this season.
That, and the fact that the 49ers used their last two first-round pick in the secondary, suggests the 49ers draft a cornerback in the first three rounds. They’ll probably add depth on Day 3, because Baalke always drafts a cornerback, but he probably feels comfortable with the players they already have in place.
Other than that one position, expect the 49ers to use their first few picks on positions of need for 2014. Don’t expect them to go wildly off board and grab, say, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon or Miami’s Ereck Flowers. The first few picks will likely address the holes that are present on the roster now, whatever Baalke view them as being. Only then will we see the 49ers adopt a more best-player-available style, looking for players who have fallen, be it due to injury or character concerns.
Potential needs for 2016 may be addressed in later rounds, too. Players like Vernon Davis and Alex Boone are penciled in as starters in 2015 but will hit the free agent market next offseason. Don’t be at all surprised to see those positions addressed this year, before they become crucial.
Trades
All of that is conjecture and guesswork, however. If there’s one thing that is as close to a lock as you can get, it’s that Baalke will not stay put on the draft board. He’ll be working the phones, moving up and down.
In 2010, the 49ers executed two draft-day trades, most notably giving their first-round and fourth-round picks to Denver to move up two slots to grab Anthony Davis.
In 2011, the 49ers again executed two draft-day trades, most notably trading their second-, fourth- and fifth-round picks to Denver to move up to number 36 and draft Colin Kaepernick.
In 2012, the 49ers executed four draft-day trades, trading down again and again, eventually turning their third-round pick into Quinton Dial, Nick Moody, Trent Robinson, Joe Looney and eventually Eric Reid—not a bad haul at all.
In 2013, the 49ers again executed four draft-day trades, most notably jumping from 31st overall to 18th to take Reid, using an extra pick they had grabbed from the trade-down series in 2012.
In 2014, the 49ers once again executed four draft-day trades, bouncing around their second-round selections to grab Carlos Hyde, Marcus Martin and Aaron Lynch.
It’s clear that, if the 49ers have a first-round talent they are eyeing, they will have no hesitation in making a move up the draft board to grab them. If, on the other hand, they’re not satisfied, they will move back and back and back to stock up on extra picks.
They don’t have quite as much draft capital this year as they did in 2013 and 2014, so we might not see the same shear number of moves they’ve made in recent seasons. I would be stunned, however, if the 49ers made all of their picks at the spots they are currently scheduled to do so. This feels like a year in which they’ll trade down to replenish the draft cabinet.
Conclusions
Based on the 49ers’ history, how will this year’s draft unfolded?
The 49ers will trade down with their first overall pick to the back-half of the first round, in exchange for an extra third-round pick. With their first pick at the back of the first round, they will either take a wide receiver or an inside linebacker, depending on the available players.
If they pass on receiver with the first pick, Baalke will fill that need in the second round, thanks to the deep receiving class. Otherwise, Baalke will stock up on defense, either taking an inside linebacker or grabbing a defensive end, preparing for Justin Smith’s eventual retirement.
Now with two third-round picks, Baalke would have more options. By the end of Day 2, he will have drafted at least one, and possibly two, inside linebackers—he does like using those third-round picks on linebacking talent. This is also where we could see picks to replace Vernon Davis and Alex Boone come into play, though a defensive end is still more likely. These aren’t needs in 2014, but this is the point where Baalke starts going away from that sort of thinking. On the latter of the two picks, the 49ers could start addressing outside linebacker or cornerback, though again, that will likely wait until the last day.
On the last day of the draft, Baalke will work to fill any remaining holes and patch up future needs. This includes a developmental quarterback in preparation for a potential Colin Kaepernick departure and an outside linebacker as insurance against Aldon Smith. Baalke will also grab a cornerback on Day 3, because Baalke always grabs a cornerback on Day 3.
These are all just educated guesses and predictions. There’s only one thing certain when Trent Baalke is drafting, and that is that there’s nothing certain when Trent Baalke is drafting. We’ll see what deals he can make as draft day approaches.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.