Four more teams shifted gears suddenly this weekend from playoff preparation and Super Bowl expectations to offseason planning and uncertainly about the future. It happens this time every year, and it's never fun for the participants. Just ask John Fox.
There are no consolation prizes for the Broncos, Cowboys, Panthers and Ravens, just whatever satisfaction can be gleaned from a hard-fought season (NFL types don't get any real satisfaction from such things) and the knowledge that each team may only be a player or two away from taking that next step.
But those extra players will be hard to find. The teams knocked out of the playoffs on Saturday and Sunday face major free-agent conundrums and delicate salary-cap situations. None can afford a real spending spree, and all are picking late in a draft class which, four months out, appears short on playmakers.
It's a double dose of bad news: You gotta go, fellas, and you might not make it back.
Let's chart a course back to contention for the four runners up from the divisional playoffs. We'll sort out their in-house contract issues, deal with any coaching changes (ahem, Broncos), and perhaps pick out a free agent or draft choice for each of them to consider. It won't be easy, but we can provide four franchises—and their fans—something to look forward to in the long weeks to come.
Cap numbers come from Over the Cap. Draft picks are chosen with the help of Matt Miller's Big Draft Board.
Denver Broncos
We'll assume that Peyton Manning arrives at camp bright eyed, bushy tailed and eager to work with his new head coach next July. That may prove to be a naive assumption. If the Broncos don't execute the kind of carpet-to-ceiling purge the Chicago Bulls chose after Michael Jordan's retirement, here is what we can expect:
Coaching changes: John Fox's sudden departure adds another layer of uncertainty to the Broncos' plans. Needless to say, there will be repercussions that go far beyond what happens to the likes of Orlando Franklin.
At the same time, many of the team's free agent and roster priorities are coach-independent. This is not a 4-12 team that the next coach must overhaul. Fox's successor is going to want to keep Demaryius Thomas and won't likely make any short-term changes to the veteran playoff nucleus. Again, this assumes that the full-scale rebuilding is one more season away.
Offensive coordinator Adam Gase originally appeared poised to become head coach as a Peyton Manning Appeasement Plan, though at press time he is still a candidate for several head coaching jobs. Gase has been given permission to speak to other clubs (he had that anyway, but he got more of persuasion than permission), so his return is now in doubt. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is almost certain to become the Raiders head coach. But even a fundamental shift on defense will not have an extreme roster impact: no matter your system, Von Miller and Chris Harris will fit it.
If Manning returns, it is important to note that the Broncos offense will still look like a Peyton Manning offense: Gase ran the option with Tim Tebow before Manning arrived, after all. If Manning does not return, well, the football world has bigger things to think about than what offense the Broncos will run.
Housecleaning: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker are free agents, not to mention a deep second tier of important players like Orlando Franklin, Brandon Marshall, Pot Roast Knighton and Jacob Tamme. Also, Von Miller is set to make $9.7 million in the option year of his rookie contract, then hit the market in 2016. The Broncos probably have about $25 million in cap space, but that's going to evaporate fast.
Miller is somewhere between the second and sixth best defender in the NFL. Signing him to a whopping contract with a prorated bonus could actually free some cap space, so the Broncos should get busy.
The Broncos should invest a few thousand dollars in a nice retirement party for Welker. Demaryius takes free agent precedent over Julius. Franchise tagging Julius Thomas for one prove-it year after an injury-marred season could make sense; then again, $7 million (or so) guaranteed will cause some cap strain.
Knighton is a ton of fun and can stuff the run, but humans in his weight class don't age well. Safe bet: wherever Del Rio goes, Pot Roast will follow. If they restructure Miller and let Julius Thomas walk, the Broncos can keep the core of their offensive line intact by re-signing Franklin and lock down some other useful young veterans like Marshall and Rahim Moore.
No matter how you slice it, the Broncos have 20 gallons of free agents to fit in a 10-gallon bushel. Their only drastic cap-cutting cures available are worse than the illness: Releasing Ryan Clady to save $9 million, for example, is a great way to guarantee Peyton Manning's retirement, no matter who becomes head coach.
Free-agent shopping: It's irresponsible to commit any Broncos money to outside free agents. If they have two dimes to rub together, they should use them to keep Miller and Demaryius happy, work on Julius, and keep the roster from undergoing too much upheaval.
Draft speculation: Middle linebacker was a quiet weakness for most of the year. There is no Luke Kuechly in the draft class, but Mississippi State's Benardrick McKinney combines the athleticism and instincts a rookie needs to play an immediate role for a veteran contender.
No matter what Manning decides in the weeks to come, Brock Osweiler is still a blank slate, so the Broncos should draft a quarterback.
Dallas Cowboys
Coaching changes: Jason Garrett's contract expired after the Packers game. Many of us, stuck in Garrett's Waylon-Smithers-as-portrayed-by-William H. Macy position, would be speed-dialing new Bears general manager Ryan Pace in search of a head coaching job that includes a little bit more authority and dignity. Garrett appears to be content as a Cowboys company man, though, and there are worse fates than working for a boss who spends gobs of money and absorbs most of the blame when things go wrong. Passing game coordinator Scott Linehan is a candidate elsewhere, but he is not a short-lister.
Housecleaning: Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray probably expect to get paid. The Cowboys, as usual, are already pressed up against the cap, with $130 million committed for next year, $28 million of that in balloon payments for Tony Romo restructurings of the past.
The good news for the Cowboys is that the tier below Bryant and Murray has few high-priority players. The Cowboys must choose between right tackles Doug Free and Jeremy Parnell. Rolando McClain was a great story this year, but Sean Lee will return to replace him at linebacker. George Selvie is a decent role player, but a budget like the Cowboys' is often balanced on the backs of decent role players.
Jerry Jones will find a way to pay Bryant. Murray is more of a dilemma. Franchising him at $9 million or so would make sense for a team with $9 million in cap space, but the Cowboys are not that team. Signing Murray to a long-term deal could be the final step toward Cowboy Capageddon: Murray was ridden so hard this year that he is unlikely to have franchise-back value two or three years from now. The Cowboys should let the Raiders or Jaguars make Murray fabulously wealthy while they trust their offensive line to make a star out of Joseph Randle or a draft pick. But Jerry Jones did not become Jerry Jones by making that kind of move, for better or worse.
Parnell is younger than Free and will probably sign for less. Defensive tackle Henry Melton signed a Jerry-rigged prove-it contract and is set to earn $9 million this season. Melton is excellent when healthy, which is rarely. Releasing or restructuring him may be necessary to sign Dez, make offers to restricted free agents like Cole Beasley and sort through solid-but-replaceable defenders like Selvie and Justin Durant.
Free-agent shopping: It's hard to imagine the Cowboys hitting the market in their current cap situation. But the Cowboys will somehow hit the market despite their current cap situation. Jones likes to bargain shop for old timers and injury cases now and then rummage through Ernie Sims-Keith Brooking types to see who has a year left. Lance Briggs and Dwight Freeney are the kinds of players Jones might pursue as one-year rentals (with three-year contracts). If the goal is to get the Cowboys over the top in the short term, an experienced 4-3 defender or two to bolster the pass rush or provide an extra jolt of experience would not be a terrible investment.
Grabbing Adrian Peterson off the suspension list and using him as a Murray surrogate or insurance policy would be a terrible investment.
Draft speculation: Louisville's Gerod Holliman is a ball-hawking safety who fits the Cowboys' scheme and has the raw talent Jones covets in the first round. This is a deep running back class, so whatever the Cowboys do with Murray, they should insulate themselves in the middle rounds. Let's give them Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon in the second round to take some sting out of playing Moneyball with Murray.
Carolina Panthers
Coaching changes: No one is going anywhere. Sean McDermott is interviewing for the Jets head-coaching job, but he's a long shot. John Fox's sudden availability and Rex Ryan's arrival in Buffalo makes all of the dark horse candidates even darker.
Housecleaning: The Panthers are still in a cap pickle, despite last year's drastic cuts. They have nearly $130 million committed for next season, with leftover Steve Smith and Charles Godfrey dead money eating up some of the cap space. Veterans like Charles Johnson, Ryan Kalil, Thomas Davis and Jonathan Stewart occupy a shocking amount of cap space—those four veterans combine to absorb $50 million in salary and prorated bonuses—and plotting a restructuring plan that keeps everyone happy without resorting to phony-baloney economics (let's pay Greg Olsen $30 million in 2027) is an impossible task. Their best bet may be to take their cap medicine for another year. At least most of the overpaid guys are still productive.
Cam Newton is slated to make $14.7 million in the option year of his rookie contract. If they act quickly, the Panthers can negotiate an Andy Dalton-sized deal (six years, $96 million when you let the most obvious air out) and create some short-term cap relief by converting salary to bonus. If they dilly-dally, Newton will munch on cap space while Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck reset the market for young franchise quarterbacks. The Panthers should not dilly dally.
There are no high-priority in-house free agents, though defensive tackle Dwan Edwards deserves an offer. Luke Kuechly becomes a free agent next year if the Panthers do not exercise the fifth-year option. They will certainly exercise that option to buy some time, but if the Panthers are serious about trying to win with a Newton-Kuechly core, they must make sure they actually keep their Newton-Kuechly core.
Free-agent shopping: The Panthers are tight against the cap and have not been aggressive shoppers for years. Any loose change available after ensuring a Newton-Kuechly future can be used on helpful role players like second tight end Ed Dickson and exclusive-rights free-agent Fozzy Whittaker. There's a small army of wide receivers hitting the market, and the Panthers should put out some lines to see if someone with real difference-making potential (A Robert Meachem, perhaps) stops for a nibble after getting lost in the crowd.
Draft speculation: Stupid NFC South. If the Panthers were a typical 7-8-1 team, they might be in position to draft a receiver like Louisville's DeVante Parker in the middle of the first round. But the Panthers are a 7-8-1 playoff team, so Parker, West Virginia's Kevin White and one or two others may be gone by the time they pick. Alabama's Amari Cooper will be long gone. Big-and-fast Sammie Coates from Auburn may still be around, though, and the Panthers need a dose of pure athleticism opposite Kelvin Benjamin.
Despite some impressive performances by rookies late in the year, the Panthers still have plenty of needs on the offensive line and in the secondary. The 2014 rookie crop started looking pretty darn good when Trai Turner, Kony Ealy, Bene Benwikere, Tre Boston and free agents Andrew Norwell and Philly Brown started making contributions. The Panthers need another draft class just like it, or better, while they pay some bills.
Baltimore Ravens
Coaching changes: Kubiak's name bubbled up for some head coaching jobs, but he does not plan to leave Baltimore. The opening in Denver is unlikely to change that: Kubiak announced his plan to stay in Baltimore while the John Fox situation was brewing; he knows the Broncos organization well and probably knew something was up. He's a much better lieutenant than a general.
Housecleaning: The Ravens have over $136 million committed for 2015. It does not leave them any breathing room. There are few obvious restructuring or cap-casualty candidates. Cornerback Jimmy Smith is in the option year of his rookie contract and slated to earn roughly $7 million after missing this season with a foot injury. The Ravens need cornerbacks, and extending Smith can create cap flow, but the foot injury makes a lucrative extension a risky proposition.
Torrey Smith is on the record saying that he does not want to hit the free-agent market. You can't blame him; the Ravens are a stable franchise, and that receiver market promises to be crowded. Smith will not earn Bryant/Demaryius money from anyone and probably will not seek it. The Ravens will squeeze him in, and they will find a way to squeeze in Gary Kubiak favorite Owen Daniels as well.
Justin Forsett, another Kubiak favorite and a player who saved the Ravens' season in numerous ways, may be too expensive to keep. A 29-year-old running back coming off a career year is just not a good investment, but some talent-hungry team is going to give Forsett the kind of deal the Jaguars gave Toby Gerhart (three years, $10.5 million) last season. Kubiak was there when the Broncos changed running backs every year with little consequence and the Texans grabbed Arian Foster off the discount rack. Forsett should only stick around at the right price.
The Ravens love Justin Tucker and will franchise him if they cannot afford to make him the NFL's highest-paid kicker this year. There's a long list of second-tier free agents, but the Ravens have proven in the past that they can replace defenders like Pernell McPhee through the draft.
Free-agent shopping: The Ravens are good at looking completely cash-strapped, then somehow winding up with Steve Smith or Elvis Dumervil when some other team has even greater cap problems or the office technology malfunctions. Once they take care of the various Smiths, the Ravens will not have cap space to do anything flashy. If they make some surprise cuts and somehow wind up with Larry Fitzgerald or Rent-a-Revis in two months, well, that's the Ravens for you.
Draft speculation: Let's just keep drafting defensive backs until Ozzie Newsome gets tired of watching them run. LSU's Jalen Collins is a fashionably tall cornerback from Newsome's preferred scouting region. (Because, you know, no one else scouts the SEC). Safety Landon Collins is a great prospect who will be drafted too soon for even Newsome's I'll trade you a kidney for that Alabama prospect sweet talk to work. Really, the cornerback and safety classes are thin, and the Ravens know it. The Ravens do their best drafting for two years down the road, anyway.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.