2014-12-08

First of all, congratulations to everyone who reads this column, for I am assuming anyone taking time off their precious lives to peruse fantasy football information is still alive in their respective playoffs.

For the rest of you masochists, I will not be offended if you turn away. Go do whatever you want. Just stop wallowing in all that was lost in 2014. (Unless you're checking these rankings for your one-day fantasy needs. In which case, we cool.)

The lives of those who miss out on the fantasy playoffs are near-torturous. You still hear the smack-talk, claims of what your friends will do with your money and all the normal things that happen during a regular season via group texts and emails. You just don't get to participate without an instant, deserved rebuke of your fantasy football acumen.

For the rest of us? Let's cleanse ourselves of the also-rans and take a look at what's to come in Week 15.



(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 15 or are on the schedule for Monday night.)



Top Dog: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

From a real-life football perspective, Luck was bad for most of Sunday's win over the Browns. He threw two costly interceptions, lost a fumble and completed less than 50 percent of his passes for the first time all season.

From a fantasy perspective, Luck was the seventh-best quarterback in football. His 37 yards and rushing touchdown helped atone for the turnovers, and he added 294 yards and two more scores through the air. Luck has not dropped below 14 fantasy points in a game all season, and the MVP candidate has at least 18 points in 12 of his 13 games.

With the Colts hosting a Houston defense with its fair share of flaws outside J.J. Watt, Luck should bounce back with a good game from a real-life and fantasy perspective.

Sleeper: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks made Mark Sanchez look downright Sanchizeian this week. He was limited to 96 yards through the air, and while he was able to add two touchdowns, it proved little solace to owners who'd come to trust the Eagles quarterback.

If Sanchez's disappointing outing didn't result in your playoff ouster, he'll reward that patience against Dallas on Sunday Nigh Football. The Cowboys have been able to hold tight in NFC East thanks to DeMarco Murray and a quietly stellar season from Tony Romo, but their defensive cracks are starting to show. Chicago came back from a 35-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to shortly get within 10 points, and giving Dallas three straight weeks of allowing 28-plus points.

The Eagles thrashed their division foe when they met on Thanksgiving. Dallas will be motivated to return the favor, but it's far more likely to win a close, high-scoring game than a blowout.

Beware: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

No matter the implosion levels in San Francisco, the 49ers and Seahawks rivalry isn't going anywhere (for now). These teams know each other probably better than any other two rivals in the league, and their games tend to take on a classic, grind-it-out slugfest form.

That's not great news for fantasy owners. Wilson, who was mostly brilliant in Seattle's 19-3 win on Thanksgiving, did next to nothing from a fantasy perspective. His 16 points were his lowest total of the last five weeks and his fourth-worst overall in 2014.

Many will point to Seattle hosting this game and say those stats don't matter, but that's a misnomer. Wilson's two worst fantasy days in 2014 were home games, while his four highest have all come on the road.

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Until Murray stops pulverizing the league and the Cowboys stop pulverizing his body, he's a lock for this top spot. Le'Veon Bell has gone over 200 total yards each of the last three weeks, but Murray's ridiculous consistency level isn't something we're likely to see again for a long time.

The former Oklahoma star has gone over 100 total yards in 12 of 13 games. He's been a between-the-tackles bruiser, with eight of his nine touchdown runs coming inside the tackle box, per ESPN Stats & Info. And if his 24.6 carries per game weren't enough, the Cowboys have been using him more than ever in the passing game of late.

Sleeper: Chris Johnson, New York Jets

Forgive me here, I'm just doing the Former Superstar Plays His Crummy Old Team math here. The same showing of faith led to 139 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season from Steve Smith against the Panthers. Johnson and Smith don't quite share the same temperament—OK, no one shares Steve Smith SENIOR's temperament—but Johnson still has a shot at a breakout.

The artist formerly known as CJ2K has received 33 carries over the last two weeks, one more than starter Chris Ivory. The Jets' late-season game plan appears to read "do anything but allow one of our quarterbacks to pass the ball." The Titans, meanwhile, are a dumpster-fire defense ranked last in rushing yards allowed and are kicking the can to their top-five pick.

That the NFL made this one of four late-afternoon games should be a felony. I won't watch a second of this and neither should you, but Johnson is a sneaky flex play here.

Beware: Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

After tantalizing fantasy owners in his first four starts, Robinson has gone full Jaguar over the past three weeks. He's combined for 99 rushing yards, and Jacksonville's coaching staff has continued its head-scratching flirtation with Toby Gerhart. Gerhart has received 19 total touches over this three-week span, a not-insignificant amount given how often the Jaguars are forced to throw.

A trip to Baltimore is nowhere near as daunting as it used to be, but there's no reason to risk your playoff life on Robinson returning to form. The Ravens are ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed, and opponents have scored only seven rushing touchdowns this season.

Top Dog: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown and Murray remain atop their perches for the same exact reason: They're so consistent it's impossible to take them off. Brown has not had fewer than eight receptions in a game since Oct. 12. He had seven. Not once in 2014 has he been held below five receptions, and his season low in yardage is 74.

There are zero negatives here. Brown is a superstar, perhaps the best all-around receiver in football. He's also making a trip with his teammates to Atlanta on Sunday, which has been a fantasy bonanza for opposing passing games all season.

When 100-plus yards feels like the basement of a player's production, it's safe to say he's worth keeping around.

Sleeper: Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings

Johnson is beginning to look like the deep threat everyone wanted Cordarrelle Patterson to be. He's averaging 70.75 receiving yards over the last four weeks, including a 103-yard performance in Sunday's win over the Jets. Most of that production came on a 56-yard touchdown connection, but Johnson has nonetheless become a favorite of Teddy Bridgewater.

The Vikings head to Detroit this week, so beware of putting too much stock into Johnson. The Lions have one of the NFL's best defenses and are surely champing at the bit to pick apart a rookie quarterback. Johnson is worth a flex flier in deeper leagues and might be worth a high-risk play in some shallower formats as a boom-or-bust option.

Just don't go too crazy.

Beware: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

Luck's ascent has made it hard to bench any Indianapolis pass-catcher this season, but Wayne is nowhere near 100 percent. Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star noted that Wayne is battling through a torn triceps to go along with elbow and knee issues.

As tough as Wayne is for gutting it out, his ailments have shown up on the stat sheet. He has compiled a paltry 46 yards over the last three weeks and made one reception for five yards Sunday despite being targeted eight times. It's fair to wonder whether Wayne should start ceding serious playing time to Donte Moncrief, who has looked like the far more explosive option in recent weeks.

Either way, keep him as far away from fantasy lineups as possible.

Top Dog: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Fun fact: If you hum the old-school Batman theme, the phrase "Gronk Spike" works as a syllabic replacement. I feel like that's information Gronk would enjoy.

Otherwise, I dunno. Start him. He's good.

Sleeper: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders

Rivera isn't exactly a sleeper, but that's because they don't exist at tight end. The position is so shallow that any inkling of production is going to get notice from fantasy owners.

Nonetheless, after a two-week stretch in which he had just 29 yards, Rivera was back as a vital part of the offense in Sunday's win over the 49ers. He made seven receptions for a career-high 109 yards and a touchdown, marking the fifth time he's had at least five grabs in 2014.

The Chiefs have been very good about limiting catches to opposing tight ends but have been burned in the red zone. Rivera is a decent bet to find paydirt, even if he struggles to match his production from a yardage standpoint.

Beware: Jordan Reed, Washington

Have you seen Washington play football lately? That should end any questions.

Even if the nation's capital hadn't become a cesspool of infighting and incompetence, Reed is yet to prove he can stay on the field. The former Florida standout has bounced in and out of the lineup since his breakout last season, missing five contests so far in 2014 and parts of a few others.

Few doubt Reed's talent when he's 100 percent healthy. He's just in such a bad situation that it's impossible to tell what to expect on any given week.

Top Dog: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens' injury-ravaged secondary taking on the Jacksonville passing game is like a fight between the two drunkest guys at a frat bar. At first it'll start out amusingly sloppy before devolving into a combination of tears and self-loathing that mentally scars anyone who watched in person.

It's worth banking on Baltimore's secondary to come out ahead on the sadness scorecard, if only because it looks slightly less like an irreparable mess. We've already highlighted the potential difficulties of Denard Robinson and the ground game, so any hope the Jags have of pulling the upset will come via Blake Bortles' arm.

Yikes.

Sleeper: New York Jets

Rex Ryan's secondary, consigned to incompetence thanks to its low-end talent and nonexistent depth, has had its low points in 2014. The Jets have allowed an AFC-high 29 touchdown passes and have made only five interceptions, making them good for the second-quarter quarterback rating against in football.

Opposing quarterbacks have essentially averaged a Tony Romo-esque stat line this season against New York, which is just flabbergasting given the miracles Ryan has worked in past years.

Likely on his way out the door, Ryan has a chance to provide a reminder of the good times this weekend. The Titans are headed back to the Jake Locker well after another shoulder injury to Zach Mettenberger, per NFL.com's Chris Wesseling, and have struggled all season to build a competent passing game. Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 41 times and thrown 18 interceptions, both fourth worst in the NFL.

Beware: New York Jets

The Jets' starting cornerbacks have been drafted a combined zero times by NFL teams. You all go forward at your own risk.

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

Parkey not attempting a field goal Sunday is an outlier in an otherwise excellent rookie campaign. He hit nine over his previous two games, and Week 14 was only the second time all season he's been held under seven points scored. Expect a bounce back.

Sleeper: Connor Barth, Denver Broncos

Barth has kicked six field goals in two weeks since joining the Broncos. Adding kickers on high-profile offenses is never a bad idea, given that at the very least you'll accrue a whole bunch of extra points.

Beware: Any and All Kickers

Speaking as someone who lost in his semifinals last season because Dan Bailey kicked five field goals and Mason Crosby had only one, the pain is real, my friends. Prepare yourselves accordingly.

Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or less of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Playoff Advice: Be Wary of the RB Gauntlet

On the surface, the running back position looks loaded with potential studs ready to carry championship teams. I honestly did not know Kerwynn Williams was a human being until Sunday, and he rushed for 100 yards against a stellar Chiefs defense. Latavius Murray looked just fine rushing for 76 yards on the 49ers' front seven.

Jonathan Stewart was a beast, Matt Asiata is a person who starts at running back in the NFL and we already covered Chris Johnson at length. Each of these guys are available in more than half of ESPN.com leagues and are potential top-20 players.

They also have the potential to single-handedly end your playoff run.

Williams hadn't received an NFL carry before Week 14. Murray plays for a Raiders team that travels to Arrowhead. We've been here once or 20 times with Stewart. Same with Johnson. Asiata is a person who starts at running back in the NFL but is not very good at that job.

These are risk factors to take into account when making lineup decisions. Don't be a prisoner of the moment and abandon regular contributors who are struggling (e.g. Mark Ingram) over potential one-hit wonders.

Keeper Advice: Pick Up Johnny Manziel While You Still Can

In most long-term keeper leagues, Manziel has been drafted and stashed since August. His high-profile status likely made him so overdrafted that owners felt compelled to keep him around despite Brian Hoyer keeping the starting job.

That said, Manziel is still out there in some keeper and dynasty formats—especially ones with positional limits. My long-term franchise league forces owners to have only two quarterbacks on their roster at all times, which has kept Manziel unowned since the bye-week season started. With byes over and my backup Colin Kaepernick struggling, Manziel is already entered as my top waiver claim of the week.

Not only does he have a decent chance of getting the nod for Cleveland's final three games, but he also has value even if he sits. Odds are, someone in your league has an affinity for Mr. Football—enough to offer a usable running back or a priority pick in next year's draft.

Top Drop of the Week: Shane Vereen (RB, New England Patriots)

With LeGarrette Blount back in the fold, Jonas Gray hanging out and Brandon Bolden getting occasional work, there aren't enough touches for Vereen to have value. The Patriots almost exclusively use Vereen as a pass-catching option at this point, offering him only 13 carries over the past four weeks. He's made 16 receptions in that timeframe but has been held out of the end zone and hasn't topped six fantasy points.

Barring an injury, it's hard to see Vereen's role changing down the stretch. New England appears to have three running backs it's more comfortable handing the ball to, and Vereen is entirely touchdown-dependent outside of PPR leagues.

With a bevy of boom-or-busts available, it's better to roll the dice than hold faith Vereen's role will suddenly expand.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All percentages via ESPN

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