Regular Biznews columnist Cees Bruggemans brings some global political advice to the table in his latest insightful piece. Discussing the leaders of four of the top economies in the world (with a bit of Jacob Zuma being thrown in the mix), Cees contemplates all things geopolitical and what he sees developing over the next few years for the Western and Eastern powerhouses of the world. Well worth a read if global politics capture your attention. – Tracey Ruff
by Cees Bruggemans
The G8 must be an interesting bunch. But you really need global principals only to get to the essence of things. So geopolitically one could do without Cameron, Hollande, Renzi, Abe & the Canadian, while Xi now outranks all of them, yet isn’t a G8 member. Of course, the others wouldn’t dream of getting explicit about this, so one could perhaps lay on a private dinner party, far from the Maddening Crowd?
And so, on time, on the appointed evening (we all know this is going to be night work), we find Obama, Merkel, Putin & Xi already at table. What is unusual about this combination is that two of the four remain European in origin. A fifth guest has let it be known he will be a little late, but please start without him. He will catch up.
Angela Merkel – “the pragmatic Westphalian realist”.
What to talk about? Obama the (increasingly realistic?) Missionary, Merkel the pragmatic Westphalian realist, Putin the activist nationalist, and Xi the quiet Emperor.
Perhaps first a quick sketch, to show how very different their backgrounds. It may help to understand slightly better their personal styles & missions.
Obama, the popular elected President, but hemmed in by a snarling Republican controlled Congress able to hamstring much of his legislative initiatives. Merkel, the popular politician (affectionately known as “Mutti”), still having to live with her largest opposition party in an alliance of convenience with all the democratic horse trading this implies.
Putin, the self-made Tsar of all the Russians in modern garb, popularly elected, but living in an oligarchic system of his own making where democracy is easily manipulated. And Xi, Princeling, fifth-generation (post-Mao, as we stick with imperial dynastic thinking), backed by sufficient party factions to have become Leader, having quickly consolidated his power, and projecting it with all the force of a quiet, dignified personality.
Their origins differ markedly. Obama, the brash young lawyer entering Congress and following a meteoric rising star in a democratic arena where only the most tenacious & focused (and winning popular hearts & minds) reach the top. Merkel & Putin both beneficiaries of incredible historic moments, Merkel having her Kohl, and Putin his Yeltsin, elevating both at crucial moments from nowhere to dizzy heights, and both having the emotional intelligence of shaping these exceptional opportunities and reaching their respective tops. Xi, in contrast, first and foremost Princeling, after a long but not necessarily grueling Cook’s tour of the regions, getting himself noticed & elevated, until coming out on top.
This is not your average bunch, no matter the popular projecting in the daily news media. This is an exceptional crop of talent, weighing and being weighed, probing judiciously, storing away, formulating, shaping.
Barack Obama – “the missionary”.
Kissinger described the onset of WW1 as a tragedy of abdication, as reigning politicians of the day in the preceding decade had lost control of events, giving up their prime responsibility: to stay sane & and in charge, keeping order when all progressively lost their heads.
An interesting litmus test. Will our dinner guests, even allowing for democratic election processes, shortly abdicate their global responsibility to keep ensuring sanity & order even when pursuing their respective national interests?
The interplay might become very tricky, difficult at times to distinguish, but it would be in nobody’s interest to succumb to irrationality and total destruction. Each knows that and is likely to act accordingly. An important assumption, despite all kinds of silly breakdancing and games of chicken daily.
So what would they talk about (they didn’t come for the food or wine, did they?).
I can see four issues: Russia being grinded by both European and Chinese encroachment and resisting this now actively. China projecting itself forcefully in East Asia, from Korea in the north all the way down the China Sea in the south. Iran as a nuclear power and how the Shia/Sunni schism may evolve in the larger Islamic footprint. American meddlesomeness in Russian & Chinese affairs.
For interest sake, perhaps an appeal for Merkel feedback on how Europe’s existential crisis is evolving, and whether the region will ever again amount to anything in its own right, or whether it will simply continue as an extension of the American Western projection?
Separately, affecting all, perhaps a quick review of the world economy, how its recuperation from Western banking and sovereign crises is evolving, how China’s recasting is proceeding, and what prospects all this offers going forward.
Putin – “the activist nationalist”. Photo credit: theglobalpanorama / Foter / CC BY-SA
Starting off, the American view on the Russian issue is perhaps low on nuance, and high on American realism. Look, let’s face it. Long ago, you backed the wrong ideological horse, it undermined your ability to compete, you lost the Cold War, large amounts of territory historically accumulated by you feel no affiliation for you, not least because they could do a whole lot better by sticking with those with superior systems. As a consequence they walked away from you when laid low by your internal troubles as you housecleaned. Now, you are back, and you want back what wasn’t yours to begin with. Doesn’t work that way, pal. Be happy with what you got. By the way, you realise the biggest land claim in history concerns Siberia, with China the aggrieved party. Perhaps they are leaving this for another century, when they will be a lot stronger, and you a lot weaker, than even now.
Meanwhile, back off, will you, be happy with what you got. Perhaps pay more attention to improving your systems some more. Why have you given up so easily on being better mates inside Europe? That association would do you a world of good, strengthen you all, indeed giving you more internal strength for the long struggle you face in the East. I would worry more about those incursions into your sphere than on your Western flank. We are your potential friends. The East will never be that as the ideological fires keep dying off.
Predictably, this opening salvo got Putin’s back up. For the Russian has a deep sense of history. For a 1000 years the “West” has been pressuring Russia. That is where traditionally her biggest confrontation risk resided. And nothing has changed, the way Europe with American encouragement in recent years enticed away one East European peripheral after another.
And so Mother Russia has felt naked in her western borderlands for some time now, and started the process of reversing these historic losses, one territorial bite at the time, either by making things ungovernable in the borderlands or making an outright grab (Crimea).
This has already progressed into a hot war, even if ill-defined, like a festering wound refusing to heal but not live-threatening. This despite loose talk about local nuclear options if need be, but we all know rational minds will prevail.
Still, it makes Merkel nervous, all this saber rattling. Unintended consequences could easily arise. And the only German buffer is Poland. Not nothing, but also not much in a game of chicken at this level. Better to have all cool down. For which reason the backing of American sanctions of Russia as it engages Ukraine, but short of being totally crippling.
It has yet to be shown to be enough. Putin is taking a long view, the Baltics and Belarus are nervous, even as the Greeks see an opportunity here, with Putin responding warmly, both trying to find succour from European pressure.
Opponents of the G7 foreign ministers meeting protest in the centre of the northern German city of Luebeck, April 14, 2015. G7 foreign ministers will hold a two-day meeting in Luebeck to discuss issues such as Ukraine, the Middle East and Ebola. The text reads: ‘Let’s start the avalanche.’ REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer
Will it quickly get out of hand? Probably not, but leaving it festering plays into Russian hands longer term as the West European intrusion into the East slowly falters on Russian resistance. Bogging down, though not like in trenches as in WW1? Greater Europe now effectively has two centres, Germany & Russia, but this is acknowledged by few (and unwanted by Russian nationalists like Putin).
China has also offered a friendly backdoor to Russian energy overtures. Except that the Russian energy-rich Eastern borderlands are also restless and not inclined to do Moscow’s bidding, while China is quietly weighing its very long term options.
The Chinese East Asia push of 2014 has quite suddenly gone very quiet, perhaps because it had rattled its Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese, Philippine & Malay neighbours enough to make its main point. China is Overlord. At the same time, commodity necessity has overnight become less pressing, as China’s own gear change and the changing global energy balance has made alternative oil & gas supply access less pressing? Not on a 50 year view, but certainly on a 10 year view?
And so all smiles and bottoms up as we accept less restlessness in the China Sea.
A true bone of contention is Iran, and by extension all of the Middle East, with the geostrategists extending this to Pakistan & India in the East, and through the Sahara into the deep African West.
Obama is following a balance of power approach, negotiating with Shia Iran, supporting Sunni efforts to end civil wars in the region. It remains to be seen whether this can lower the intensity of conflict.
China needs the oil from the region more than ever, though new fracking technology at home and more territorial China Sea push may reduce this. Time will tell.
Meanwhile, nobody is served by irrational behaviour, reminding of pre-WW1 abdication of the senses. And the Mid-East region is highly flammable, with multiple hotheads potentially in attendance, and this extending through Pakistan and beyond. Too close for Chinese comfort?
Russia sees opportunity here for leverage to be used in its borderland skirmishes with the West, but presumably even Putin realizes (remembering his own Chechens) that irrationality in the region should not be encouraged too far.
For Putin, a medium-intensity Mid-Eastern Troubles festering indefinitely may well be useful, in preventing too much of an energy price fall, and keeping all geopolitical friends on their toes.
For the West, it is not only a tragedy, but a source of wider future conflict if an ascending Iran and others in the region would keep exporting their militancy, with Europe in the immediate firing line, but America not immune.
Indeed, an immediate European problem is the humanitarian one threatening to overwhelm it. Millions of Middle Eastern and North African displaced peoples are on the move. Their natural destination is to try to get into Europe, which doesn’t have effective border controls, least of all in the large Mediterranean.
Opponents of the G7 foreign ministers meeting protest in the centre of the northern German city of Luebeck, April 14, 2015. The text reads: ‘You are seven. We are seven billion.’ REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer
The human wave entering Europe is currently of the order of half a million annually (and rising exponentially?), with essentially NOBODY wanting them, and indeed giving rise to explosive political resistance from within Europe. It could change the European balance in a social sense even if a Grexit would fail to do so in an economic one (even if a 11th hour deal remains possible). Enough said?
So get the Islamic world to calm down, deny any irrational parties in the region the nuclear option, and try to end the many civil wars now ransacking the region, stabilizing its demographics.
Easier wished than done. Better prepare for yet bigger conflict in the region, despite the Iranian nuclear deal now playfully on the table. The human wave wanting to exit is likely to grow substantially, inviting Europe either to accept it or become more draconian in response. Typically, both will probably occur. It is for Europe to resist and keep the incoming numbers down. It will, humanely, reminding of both America (and its Mexican border policy) and Aussie (and its offshore island policy of dumping refugee boat people).
That gives Europe the biggest problems of all: unrest in the Eastern borderlands with a saber rattling Putin, growing conflict in the world of Islam sending greater streams of refugees to be resisted, and growing internal resistance to all these and other policies, steadily radicalising the own political landscape (though least in Germany?).
In all this, the American presence everywhere is noted, welcomed by Europe, but not equally so by Russia or China. There is resistance here, voluble by Putin, far more enigmatic by Xi. Putin can be depended upon to keep his large borderlands bubbling, the Americans won’t single-handedly contain the Islamic schism, and Europe faces external & internal pressures on all these fronts, making it more amenable elsewhere, especially economically. That suits the Chinese?
World economy? Remarkable how slow & long the recuperation. America is most advanced in getting back on its feet, and yet even there it is slow-going. Europe has become more activist via the ECB, and through peripheral reforms, but there too it is slow going. Russia is in recession through energy price collapse and the Western sanctions biting viciously.
And China is preoccupied with escaping its Middle Income Trap, reducing dependence on exports, infrastructure expansion & property speculation, favouring a greater role for household consumption. In the process, its growth has slowed (to 6%-7%?), and its commodity appetite has greatly eased, in turn weakening other EM & commodity exporter prospects. Such adjustments cannot be helped, as the various regions adept to changing global & internal circumstances.
But this structural adjustment remains a slow one, not an abrupt one, so far not creating untoward new financial global shocks making the adjustment burden for some much worse. Instead, benign market conditions persist, as Japanese & European proactivity provide global support, the American Fed treads warily among the many minefields at home & abroad, and even China hints of policy support where needed to prevent too much of an abrupt adjustment taking hold serving nobody.
So far, so good.
At which point, five hours late, the fifth dinner guest makes his appearance. Zuma, President of South Africa, an insignificant country in its own right, but tonight representing some 1 billion continental Africans (India’s Modi couldn’t come, something about a hectic reform schedule).
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, meets with South African President Jacob Zuma in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia. (AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Alexei Druzhinin, Presidential Press Service)
As all fussed about the late arrival (apparently plane trouble of some kind), Zuma had a moment to take his measure of old friends only recently seen. Clearly, big issues had already been discussed, and nobody felt obliged to give a quick synopsis. How do you reflect the many nuances with all players present?
Anyway, a fine excuse to focus on Zuma. Been having some trouble lately?
Yes, true, although not as bad as Rousseff in Brazil. But then we have a better organised private sector keeping the lights burning, so to speak.
You may already have covered this, but we Africans are terribly concerned about what’s playing in the Sahara. This militant Islamic thing is getting out of hand. We now have an old general back in charge in Nigeria, with Goodluck really having been no good on this score, as you know. But the “problem” stretches over thousands of kilometers, involves numerous countries East to West, increasingly stretches down the eastern African coast, and in South Africa this is about the last thing we need, even though the writing is on the wall?
Xenophobia? We hate nobody, although we are vigorously transforming our society. We have called for calm, always a good thing. Might it get worse? Possibly, the Western Cape hasn’t been engulfed yet and Gauteng is a hotspot for foreigners. But then we have so many Chinese nowadays we often have difficulty in recognising the country, just like Aussie & Canada, just somewhat differently. Hey, Xi?
How’s the world economy going? Any good? We could do with some trade support and less financial pressure, people are really getting demanding of late.
Whether we are reforming? Oh yes, I am trying to build a fully fledged developmental state, a small China Town if you wish. But the locals aren’t really biting. And the economy keeps stand-offish. My valued advisors keep on advising to pile on the pressure, try harder, but I sometimes get the impression it only serves to drive us deeper into the ground.
Very frustrating.
I mean, I have Ministers who now in public are willing to say they don’t have a continental clue about things. Of course, in some instances I intended that, one has to be clever about some things, hey Vladimir, but one specifically (Brown) is laying down the law. She actually wants to understand at Eskom what’s going on, why they are no longer supplying electricity. Personally, I experience none of this, please understand, and I also don’t quite follow what all these people thought they were doing, as I said publicly in January. Anyway, we got new teams looking at things. “Alles sal reg kom” (everything will turn out right), a useful old Afrikaner saying we haven’t scrapped yet.
Which reminds me.
Otherwise, things go swimmingly my side. You too, Xi, I see less active of late at sea? But then there is enough going on in the Middle East. Can’t somebody stop it? Anyone…
And so, no doubt, they would keep exploring deep into the night, without necessarily reaching any immediate agreements, but getting a better sense of each other’s preoccupations and inclinations.
Well, of some, with Vladimir very voluble, Angela very economical, Obama quietly watching with a wagging finger now and then, and Xi mostly quietly smiling (reminding of the Cheshire Cat).
And Jacob? Thinking of home? Burning. Time to start over is getting awfully short. Better hope they can sort this. One wouldn’t want to go out in a blaze of glory. Who needs that?
Inspiration
Hendrik Willem van Loon “Van Loon’s Lives” George G Harrap & Co, 1943
Henry Kissinger “World Order” Allen Lane 2014
John Darwin “After Tamerlane – The rise & fall of global empires 1400-2000” Bloomsbury Press 2008
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