What follows is a thorough analysis of my consensus top 190 prospects. I have done this in 2011 and 2012 and have always received extremely positive reviews of it, so here were are for a third time!
Lists
2080 (Bradley Ankrom)
Baseball America
Baseball Prospect Nation
Baseball Prospectus
Bullpen Banter
ESPN (Keith Law)
Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)
Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)
Minor League Ball (John Sickels)
Project Prospect
Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)
Scout
Definitions
Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.
Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.
Surprising Inclusion: The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most four lists.
Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least eight other lists. For Project Prospect this includes players only in the top 50 consensus. For Baseball Prospect Nation and John Sickels, this includes only their top 100 ranked players.
Consensus Rank: To determine overall rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 100 points and a 100 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked first.
2080
BA
BB
BP
BPN
ESPN
FG
MiLB
MLB
P361
PP
SC
Likes
1
1
4
2
5
9
4
2
2
6
1
7
Dislikes
3
4
6
5
8
6
1
7
1
1
4
6
Inclusions
2
5
1
2
4
1
1
4
2
3
0
4
Exclusions
3
3
7
4
1
5
3
0
3
7
0
5
All Excursions
9
13
18
13
18
21
9
13
8
17
5
22
2080 (Bradley Ankrom)
Ranking philosophy: "Favor upside over probability, but heavily consider probability when ranking, maybe more than some others."
Likes:
Name
2080
Con. Rank
SD
Jarred Cosart
77
100
5.69
Dislikes:
Name
2080
Con. Rank
SD
Wil Myers
10
4
-4.41
Mason Williams
78
40
-3.31
Miguel Sano
30
15
-2.72
Surprising Inclusions:
Name
2080
Lists
Gary Brown
73
4
Lewis Brinson
80
4
Surprising Exclusions:
Name
Con. Rank
Lists
Luis Heredia
84
8
J.R. Graham
87
8
A.J. Cole
92
8
Baseball America
Ranking philosophy: "Seven people contributed to the voting this year. Each person compiled a personal top 150, and we reviewed the composite numbers and made adjustments before locking down the final list. The consensus shows us who has the broadest base of support, and gives us a great starting point for the final list. The most important part of the Top 100 meeting is an examination of players risk factors. The weaknesses that could undo players, rather than their strengths -- not enough power for a corner spot, for example -- and look at best and worst case players for each factor. We look at those factors when we're making adjustments to the list and deciding which players to put in the final few spots."
Likes:
Name
BA
Con. Rank
SD
Andrew Heaney
43
99
2.62
Dislikes:
Name
BA
Con. Rank
SD
Taijuan Walker
18
7
-2.07
Jameson Taillon
19
10
-2.05
Gary Sanchez
57
35
-2.04
Aaron Sanchez
65
37
-2.03
Surprising Inclusions:
Name
BA
Lists
Hyun-Jin Ryu
42
1
Lance McCullers
50
3
Avisail Garcia
74
2
Marcell Ozuna
75
2
Didi Gregorius
80
3
Surprising Exclusions:
Name
Con. Rank
Lists
Rymer Liriano
70
8
Zach Lee
86
8
A.J. Cole
92
8
Baseball Prospect Nation
Likes:
Name
BPN
Con. Rank
SD
Leonys Martin
61
101
3.07
J.R. Graham
28
87
2.68
Lucas Giolito
14
69
2.45
A.J. Cole
74
92
2.19
Bruce Rondon
85
102
2.10
Dislikes:
Name
BPN
Con. Rank
SD
Brian Goodwin
117
58
-4.29
Kolten Wong
137
65
-4.13
Jake Odorizzi
150
68
-4.05
Matt Davidson
136
81
-3.85
Dylan Bundy
5
2
-2.68
Travis d'Arnaud
31
12
-2.65
Addison Russell
69
33
-2.34
Hak-Ju Lee
133
76
-2.01
Surprising Inclusions:
Name
BPN
Lists
Adalberto Mondesi
53
3
Jorge Alfaro
55
4
Tyler Thornburg
73
4
Michael Choice
79
3
Surprising Exclusions:
Name
Con. Rank
Lists
Tyler Austin
82
8
Baseball Prospectus
Ranking Philosophy: "With countless emails, calls, texts, IMs, letters, and Candygrams exchanged between members of the BP team and members of the baseball industry, we played prospect Nostradamus, spelunking for information like we had never spelunked before. It was a stressful time, but also one of the most rewarding of my career, a daily debate about prospects that consumed all available energy and intellect."
Likes:
Name
BP
Con. Rank
SD
Arodys Vizcaino
54
98
2.99
Luis Heredia
53
84
2.78
Dislikes:
Name
BP
Con. Rank
SD
Christian Yelich
23
11
-2.44
Wil Myers
7
4
-2.20
Jedd Gyorko
84
49
-2.08
Alex Meyer
88
60
-2.00
Robert Stephenson
78
51
-2.00
Surprising Inclusions:
Name
BP
Lists
Adalberto Mondesi
58
3
Jorge Alfaro
76
4
Surprising Exclusions:
Name
Con. Rank
Lists
Courtney Hawkins
71
10
Tyler Austin
82
8
Slade Heathcott
85
8
A.J. Cole
92
8
Bullpen Banter
Ranking Philosophy: "We are attempting to project the top 100 future major league players out of a vast pool of incomplete players whose skill level is always in flux. A player's "stock" can go through wild fluctuations throughout a season, and I would venture to say that it's rare to find a legitimate prospect that doesn't go through such an ebb and flow."
Likes:
Name
BB
Con. Rank
SD
Roberto Osuna
70
95
3.00
Luis Heredia
56
84
2.51
Tyler Austin
60
82
2.21
Leonys Martin
74
101
2.07
Dislikes:
Name
BB
Con. Rank
SD
Oscar Taveras
8
2
-3.15
Billy Hamilton
55
23
-2.46
Miguel Sano
28
15
-2.36
Carlos Martinez
47
32
-2.10
Christian Yelich
21
11
-2.03
Trevor Bauer
38
19
-2.01
Surprising Inclusions:
Name
BB
Lists
Joe Ross
54
3
Surprising Exclusions:
Name
Con. Rank
Lists
Rymer Liriano
70
8
Yasiel Puig
73
9
Hak-Ju Lee
76
8
Jesse Biddle
78
10
Tony Cingrani
80
10
Matt Davidson
81
8
J.R. Graham
87
8
ESPN (Keith Law)
Ranking Philosophy: "When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you."
Likes:
Name
ESPN
Con. Rank
SD
Jarred Cosart
86
100
3.46
Tyler Austin
52
82
3.02
Jonathan Schoop
50
93
2.99
Kyle Gibson
41
77
2.58
Slade Heathcott
57
85
2.53
Corey Seager
46
96
2.33
Arodys Vizcaino
64
98
2.31
Dorssys Paulino
56
90
2.24
Daniel Corcino
72
91
2.02
Dislikes:
Name
ESPN
Con. Rank
SD
Mike Olt
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