DOUBLE GOLD BID BY TIPPING DON: Daqman is going for a weekend big-race double today after his ABC selection, Ballyandy (WON 3-1), in the Newbury Hurdle yesterday. He had Don Poli top of the list in a similar ABC analysis of the Irish Gold Cup, run at Leopardstown this afternoon.
TODAY the value challenge moves to Leopardstown (2.30, 3.30 and 4.0) with the score Daqman 14, Pricewise 5 (Daqman +34 points, Pricewise -23). TOMORROW AND TUESDAY: Fortune Cookies for Cheltenham. WEDNESDAY: The Grand National weights.
84.0 SUPREME TON-UP OFFERS
2.30 Leopardstown (Spring Juvenile Hurdle) Earlier in the week, I pointed up the massive offers in the BETDAQ ante-post orange for the Supreme Novice Hurdle about probables in the two novice-hurdle trials at Leopardstown today.
For instance, you could have had 168.0 Meri Devie, now 84.0, who runs in this Spring Juvenile Hurdle. You can also get 84.0 Dinaria des Obeaux for Cheltenham from today’s race.
Four Supreme hurdle winners and three others placed since 2010 have come from the two novice hurdles, this one, and the Deloitte half an hour later this afternoon.
I shall take 84.0 the two mares, Dinaria Des Obeaux and Meri Devie, for ton-up bets at Cheltenham and 4.2 and 4.7 respectively for today, both getting 7lb from the favourite this afternoon, Bapaume.
Dinaria des Obeaux made a ‘massive impression’ (say Racing Post racereaders), 29 lengths clear of 21 others in her Cork maiden in December and has that ‘could be anything’ look for Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott.
Meri Devie jumped well and found plenty in her CD win over Christmas for the Wylies and Willie Mullins, who also trains Bapaume.
The mares could just leap forward here and go for either the Supreme or the Triumph. There’s certainly no harm in a punt to pennies at 84.0!
Read across current BETDAQ Supreme offers, the offers in my preview and the orange prices for today in BETDAQ this morning.
56.0 Houses Of Parliament (9.8 for today’s race)
84.0 Dinaria des Obeaux (4.2 for today’s race)
84.0 Meri Devie (from 168.0 for Cheltenham in my preview, 4.7 for today)
215.0 Bhutan (from 335.0 in my preview, 22.0 for today)
335.0 Sword Fighter (54.0 for today)
MULLINS’ SIX HIT IN THE DELOITTE
3.00 Leopardstown (Deloitte Novice Hurdle) Usually the better of the two trials, all 10 runners today were quoted for the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the BETDAQ ante-post this morning.
Willie Mullins has six runners (marked with an *asterisk), which makes betting today impossible, and I’ll stick to my huge offers in the Spring Hurdle and hope I’ve found a star there.
But you can take your pick for the Supreme and have a saver the same horse in today’s race. If you get it right, you’ve got a free bet and potentially massive overs for Cheltenham.
16.5 *Bunk Off Early (from 18.0 in Thursday‘s preview, 5.0 for today)
19.0 *Saturnas (from 22.0 in the preview, 3.3 today)
20.0 *Chateau Conti (12.0 for today)
60.0 Brelade (78.0 in the preview; 6.4 today)
70.0 *Riven Light (19.5 for today)
84.0 *Bacardys (13.0 for today)
250.0 *Bravissimo (27.0 for today)
335.0 Barra (9.8 for today)
335.0 Blood Crazed Tiger (20.0 for today)
335.0 Gunnery Sergeant (33.0 for today)
A TOI PHIL A PHENOMENAL 14.0
3.30 Leopardstown (Grade-1 novice chase) This race has recently thrown up RSA winners, Cooldine and Bostons Angel, and last year’s winner, Outlander, took the Lexus at Christmas.
So again we can expect at least one of these to make an impact on the Cheltenham markets.
Bellshill is already RSA favourite, and little betetr than even money to score again today. He’s shown that he stays further than this and has that essential turn of foot.
A Toi Phil is being derided as ‘only a handicap winner’, but it was a top handicap, the Leopardstown Chase, and he beat Disko in November by 12 lengths, compared with Our Duke’s finishing a length up on that one over Christmas.
Yet Our Duke is 4.2 for today’s race this morning, and A Toi Phil a phenomenal 14.0. Bellshill is the main chance but I’m looking for a tickle on the Ladbrokes forecast.
The official handicapper rates them: 153 Our Duke, 151 Disko, 150 Bellshill and Bleu Et Rouge, 149 A Toi Phil. So it’s all to play for.
4.00 Leopardstown (Irish Gold Cup) I previewed this race on Friday (see Archive), with Don Poli (4.6 this morning) coming out on top of my ABC guide and More Of That (20.0 on BETDAQ now) ticking all the boxes as the best outsider.
A 15.0 TIZZARD MASTERS CLASS?
Oscar for a walk-on part! At Exeter, Neptune favourite Finian’s Oscar (2.20) has just to turn up in the manner of a walk-over on all known form for the novices hurdle (2.20).
His yard, which came back to form yesterday with a Gold Cup performance from Native River, also saddles Masters Hill and Theatrical Star (3.20) in the veterans’ handicap.
This is another £20,000 chase for the old-timers, and I’m ticking off the winners as they clock up their ages, I think because there are so many ‘hopefuls’ looking for a miracle.
Harry Topper (form figures PP0P), Katenko (PP0FP), Katkeau (PFP) and Wychwoods Brook (P0PP) have all been collecting parking tickets.
And Id prefer a 10-year-old with only 25 or so races on the CV like Perfect Candidate or What’s Happening). In fact, these two once met at
Cheltenham when What’s Happening beat Perfect Candidate two lengths, giving him 5lb.
What’s Happening, a 10.0 BETDAQ offer, is a glass horse who hasn’t been seen since that day but the Cheltenham success came after a long absence and he will have been got up for this, now 18lb better off with Perfect Candidate.
Masters Hill (offered at 15.0) won the Graduation Chase (3.50) on this card two yesrs back and was trained for the Scottish National (eighth). Could get back on the rails now after a series of hurdles races, dropped 7lb over fences in the last year
His stablemate, Theatrical Star, is the better fancied but has been very expensive to follow in 15 starts (hood tried, then blinkers) since having to be driven out to beat four others at Fontwell in 2014.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated)
BACK 6pts win on each DINARIA DES OBEAUX and MERI DEVIE (2.30 Leopardstown)
BACK 2pts win and place WHAT’S HAPPENING, and 1.5pts win and place MASTERS HILL (3.20 Exeter)
BACK (to win 10) 7.5pts win BELLSHILL, plus 1.5pts win and place (to win 20) A TOI PHIL (3.30 Leopardstown)
BACK 5.5pts win (nap) DON POLI, and 1pt win and place MORE OF THAT (4.00 Leopardstown)
ANTE-POST TON-UP BETS (to win 100): 1.2pts win on each DINARIA DES OBEAUX and MERI DEVIE (Supreme Novice Hurdle, Cheltenham)
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