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Projecting top 30 NBA prospects
Marcus Smart headlines WARP projection ranking of the 2014 draft class
Kevin Pelton
When it comes to the 2014 NBA draft, the numbers tell a clear story: Don't believe the hype. For all the excitement this year's crop of freshmen has generated, none of them rate as well in my projections as last year's top prospect, former Kentucky center Nerlens Noel.
To project how college and international players will perform in the NBA, I start by translating their performance in 14 core statistics, such as 2-point percentage and rebound percentage, to their NBA equivalents. Then I factor in past seasons, which, given how success for college prospects has carried over in the past, is now weighted more heavily. Finally, I regress the stats toward the average for rookies at the same position, generating a complete projected stat line for each player's rookie season.
For a long-term outlook, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis.
This year, the top prospect in my rankings isn't any of the guys you've heard about atop Big Boards. Rather, it's a sophomore: Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart.
Let's look at Chad Ford's top 30 prospects, ranked by their WARP projections, followed by a ranking of the top 10 second-round steals and a full list of the top 100 prospects ranked by projected WARP.
For more on WARP projections and how they forecast past drafts, see last year's introduction to the method.
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1. Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Win%: .512 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 3.6
Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He is young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He is also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.
2. Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland
Win%: .497 | Age: 19.9 | WARP projection: 3.4
As I noted in last week's analysis of the top international prospects in the draft, which highlighted the overall strength of the group, Capela performed well both in the French Pro A league and in his team's brief stint in the EuroCup against more challenging competition. He is an excellent shot-blocker for a power forward and is arguably the best finisher in this year's draft, as reflected by his projected 54.4 percent 2-point accuracy.
3. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia
Win%: .490 | Age: 19.7 | WARP projection: 3.3
Nurkic is more of a gamble than Capela because he struggled against tougher EuroCup competition. But he dominated in the Adriatic League, rating as the best player in the league on a per-minute basis (ahead of Adriatic MVP Dario Saric). Nurkic projects as an elite offensive center, and if he can defend at all, he has All-Star potential.
4. Dante Exum, PG, Australia
Win%: .468 | Age: 18.8 | WARP projection: 3.3
Exum is the most difficult elite prospect in this year's draft to evaluate statistically. His profile is based on nine games in the FIBA U19 World Championship last summer, using other competitors who played in the NCAA (including Smart and Tyler Ennis) as the basis for the comparison. As a result, his projection is less reliable than anyone else in the draft. That gives him some bust potential but also suggests there's a chance he might be the best talent available.
5. Jordan Adams, SG, UCLA Bruins
Win%: .480 | Age: 19.8 | WARP projection: 3.0
The clearest example of the disconnect between scouting and performance analysis in this year's draft, Adams is considered a late first-round pick (29th in Ford's top 100) but rates as an elite talent statistically. A high steal rate works in Adams' favor, as does his efficiency as a scorer. He is the only player in the draft who doesn't rank in the bottom 25 percent at his position in any skill statistic in my database.
6. Joel Embiid, C, Kansas Jayhawks
Win%: .480 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 2.9
Embiid drops a bit because his statistics are regressed more than other top NCAA prospects, as he played relatively few minutes due to his back injury and foul trouble. Those factors are concerns, but Embiid's projected true shooting percentage ranks fourth among players in Ford's top 30 and he projects in the top 25 percent of past center prospects in rebound, steal and block rates, highlighting his defensive potential.
7. Jabari Parker, F, Duke Blue Devils
Win%: .444 | Age: 19.1 | WARP projection: 2.5
Among likely NCAA first-round picks, only Doug McDermott has a higher projected usage rate than Parker, who should be able to create his own shot immediately. In time, Parker should also become an efficient scorer, and he's a good enough rebounder to handle either forward spot. The questions about him almost entirely center on his defense.
8. Noah Vonleh, PF, Indiana Hoosiers
Win%: .430 | Age: 18.7 | WARP projection: 2.4
Vonleh's skill set is raw, particularly on offense, where his projected usage rate is the lowest of any likely lottery pick. However, his solid rebounding and smooth shooting stroke project a quality role player.
9. P.J. Hairston, SG, Texas Legends (NBA D-League)
Win%: .469 | Age: 21.3 | WARP projection: 2.0
The season Hairston spent playing in the D-League did little to change his projection, which also includes his final two seasons at North Carolina. He can supply instant offense from the bench with reasonable efficiency.
10. Tyler Ennis, PG, Syracuse Orange
Win%: .432 | Age: 19.7 | WARP projection: 2.0
For a freshman point guard, Ennis was remarkably sure-handed. Outside of Exum, his projected assist rate is the best of any likely first-round pick. But Ennis' elite steal rate, compiled as part of Syracuse's 2-3 zone, should be treated with some skepticism.
11. Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State Spartans
Win%: .428 | Age: 19.6 | WARP projection: 1.9
A well-rounded shooting guard who is young for a sophomore, Harris could develop into a quality starter if he shoots 3-pointers more like he did as a freshman (41.1 percent) than he did as a sophomore (35.2 percent).
12. Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee Volunteers
Win%: .441 | Age: 20.3 | WARP projection: 1.9
Stokes is this year's foremost example of an undersized power forward who the scouts have largely ignored but the numbers really like. He is young for a junior, a terror on the offensive glass and a skilled scorer.
13. Doug McDermott, F, Creighton Bluejays
Win%: .480 | Age: 22.3 | WARP projection: 1.8
McDermott's projected win percentage for next season ranks sixth in the draft, but his age pushes down his WARP projection. Perhaps not far down enough: While McDermott is likely to be a good scorer right away, his defensive statistics are appalling. In four years, he totaled 34 steals and 14 blocks; 152 NCAA players had that many last season alone, per Sports-Reference.com. So he'll surely have to be hidden on defense.
14. Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona Wildcats
Win%: .396 | Age: 18.6 | WARP projection: 1.7
Statistically, Gordon would have been better off sitting out last season. If all we had to go on was his U19 performance, when he was named MVP, he would be near the top of this last. But Gordon's steal rate didn't translate in Arizona's more conservative defensive scheme, and his sub-50 percent free throw shooting tanked his efficiency. If Gordon can lick his shooting wounds, the rest of his game is star-caliber.
15. Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky Wildcats
Win%: .412 | Age: 19.4 | WARP projection: 1.6
Over the course of the season, Randle improved his much-maligned steal rate. But both his steal and block rates remained poor for a power forward. As good as he was on the glass, Randle's 2-point percentage ranks below average, as his shot tends to get blocked frequently by longer defenders.
16. Kyle Anderson, SF, UCLA Bruins
Win%: .442 | Age: 20.6 | WARP projection: 1.5
A unique figure statistically, Anderson rebounds like a power forward and dishes the ball for assists like a point guard. He is not a major threat without the ball in his hands, so whatever team drafts Anderson may need to make him the focal point of its offense, a role justified by his quality decision-making ability.
17. K.J. McDaniels, SF, Clemson Tigers
Win%: .445 | Age: 21.2 | WARP projection: 1.5
Of all the athletic wings in the draft, McDaniels comes out on top largely due to his block rate, which is the best of any noncenter likely to be picked in the first round. However, his poor 3-point shooting (31.3 percent career from the NCAA line) may make it difficult for him to help space the floor.
18. Dario Saric, F, Croatia
Win%: .415 | Age: 20.0 | WARP projection: 1.4
As Adriatic League MVP this year, Saric played more than well enough to merit a spot in the lottery. However, in other scenarios where he hasn't had the ball in his hands so frequently, his numbers have been more pedestrian. That, along with inefficient scoring, drags down his projection.
19. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas Jayhawks
Win%: .392 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 1.3
A possible No. 1 pick, Wiggins didn't perform like one during his lone NCAA season. Wiggins is better than his projection because of his potential as an on-ball defender, but nothing in his stat line suggests likely superstardom. In particular, his projected usage rate (18.8 percent) is unspectacular for an NBA-bound wing, highlighting the improvement Wiggins needs to make handling the basketball.
20. Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan Wolverines
Win%: .419 | Age: 20.5 | WARP projection: 1.2
Among first-round picks, only McDermott projects as a better shooter from 3-point range than Stauskas (38.0 percent), who should be a rotation player from day one. Whether Stauskas can grow into a larger role will depend primarily on his defense. Just two players (McDermott and Rodney Hood) have worse projected steal rates among first-round picks.
21. Shabazz Napier, PG, Connecticut Huskies
Win%: .460 | Age: 22.8 | WARP projection: 1.1
The Final Four Most Outstanding Player rates as a quality reserve right away. At nearly 23, Napier has limited upside, but his ability to score and help teammates should keep him in the league for a decade or more.
22. Zach LaVine, G, UCLA Bruins
Win%: .376 | Age: 19.1 | WARP projection: 0.9
LaVine flashed star potential early in the season, but his numbers dropped severely in conference play. His impressive athleticism didn't translate to a high 2-point percentage, and he will have to improve as a 3-point shooter to score efficiently. LaVine's assist rate was also below average for a combo guard, but he did do a good job of taking care of the ball.
23. James Young, W, Kentucky Wildcats
Win%: .362 | Age: 18.7 | WARP projection: 0.8
Young didn't make much of an impression in the box score defensively, with a poor rebound rate for a wing and a steal rate marginally better than Stauskas'. To provide value, he will have to shoot the 3 well; he finished at just 34.9 percent last season even after an NCAA tournament hot streak.
24. Elfrid Payton, PG, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Win%: .393 | Age: 20.2 | WARP projection: 0.8
Payton filled up the defensive box score, with an excellent rebound rate and above-average steal and block rates. The question is whether he can be efficient on offense. He projects to shoot below-average rates from both inside (43.2 percent) and outside (29.5 percent) the arc, and only Saric has a higher projected turnover percentage.
25. T.J. Warren, SF, NC State Wolfpack
Win%: .395 | Age: 20.6 | WARP projection: 0.6
A 2-point specialist in an era where 2s are out of vogue, Warren is a throwback. To score efficiently while generating so few 3-pointers and trips to the free throw line, Warren will have to prove even more accurate than his projected 50.7 percent 2-point shooting.
26. Cleanthony Early, SF, Wichita State Shockers
Win%: .419 | Age: 23.0 | WARP projection: 0.0
Early is considered the top 3-and-D role player in this year's draft. That's contingent on him shooting more like last season (37.5 percent) than his first year at Wichita State (31.8 percent). At 23, Early is a relatively finished product, so he will need to contribute immediately to justify a first-round pick.
27. Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State Spartans
Win%: .418 | Age: 23.2 | WARP projection: -0.1
As with Early, Payne's age pushes down his WARP projection -- all the way into the negatives. That may be too pessimistic, though, as Payne could develop into the rare stretch 4 who is an asset, and not a liability, on the defensive end.
28. Rodney Hood, SF, Duke Blue Devils
Win%: .379 | Age: 21.5 | WARP projection: -0.2
Hood isn't much of a presence on the glass for a wing and has a poor steal rate. His scoring efficiency during his season at Duke was predicated on 42.0 percent 3-point shooting. If Hood can't keep that up in the NBA, he won't have much value.
29. Jerami Grant, SF, Syracuse Orange
Win%: .340 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: -0.4
Grant's middling rebound, steal and block rates in Jim Boeheim's zone may sell his athleticism short. But Grant will have to be excellent defensively to get run in the NBA, since his lack of shooting ability (six 3-pointers in two college seasons) will make him a liability on the perimeter.
30. Jordan Clarkson, PG, Missouri Tigers
Win%: .374 | Age: 21.9 | WARP projection: -0.5
A big point guard, Clarkson played his way into the first round during workouts, a valuation his numbers don't support. Clarkson's assist rate was poor for a point guard, and he is a below-average finisher. Because of a transfer year, Clarkson is already 22, limiting his upside.
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Second-round steals
1. Nikola Jokic, C, Serbia
Win%: .468 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 3.1
Reports originally indicated Jokic would pull his name out of the draft before Monday's deadline. But he stayed in, ostensibly after getting a draft promise. Whoever takes Jokic in the second round will be getting a top-five value, statistically.
2. Javon McCrea, PF, Buffalo Bulls
Win%: .482 | Age: 21.5 | WARP projection: 2.2
Along with Stokes, McCrea is carrying the torch for undersized power forwards. He actually isn't much of a rebounder, but he used his athleticism to post impressive steal and block rates while playing a key role in the Bulls' offense.
3. Khem Birch, PF/C, UNLV Rebels
Win%: .451 | Age: 21.6 | WARP projection: 1.5
The Pittsburgh transfer quietly had a nice junior season at UNLV, averaging 13.0 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per 40 minutes. A quality finisher, Birch should be able to carve out a career as a backup center.
4. Damien Inglis, SF, France
Win%: .381 | Age: 18.9 | WARP projection: 1.2
With the international pool depleted by withdrawals, the athletic Inglis has emerged as one of the top draft-and-stash prospects available.
5. Spencer Dinwiddie, PG, Colorado Buffaloes
Win%: .423 | Age: 21.0 | WARP projection: 1.1
A torn ACL ended Dinwiddie's junior season, but he entered the draft anyway. Any team willing to endure a couple of months of rust as Dinwiddie works his way back will be rewarded with a combo guard big enough to defend both guard spots and a solid outside shooter.
6. Walter Tavares, C, Spain
Win%: .443 | Age: 22.1 | WARP projection: 1.0
Though 22, the 7-foot-3 center from the island nation of Cape Verde is a project because of his limited high-level experience. In his first full ACB season, Tavares excelled on the defensive glass, though his height hasn't yet translated into elite shot-blocking.
7. Scottie Wilbekin, PG, Florida Gators
Win%: .419 | Age: 21.0 | WARP projection: 1.0
Though he played four years, the point guard from the nation's No. 1 team entering last year's NCAA tournament is just barely 21, suggesting some untapped potential if he can avoid the disciplinary issues that plagued him in college.
8. Langston Galloway, G, Saint Joseph's Hawks
Win%: .444 | Age: 22.4 | WARP projection: 0.9
A 6-2 off-guard, Galloway rates as a quality second-round pick entirely on the strength of his shooting. He shot 42.6 percent from 3 in his college career, including 44.3 percent as a senior. Consider him the most likely equivalent to Troy Daniels in this year's draft.
9. Lamar Patterson, W, Pittsburgh Panthers
Win%: .449 | Age: 22.7 | WARP projection: 0.9
A well-rounded wing, Patterson ranked second in the ACC in assist rate, per Sports-Reference.com. He can score too and developed into a 38.8 percent shooter from 3-point range last season. Patterson's versatile skill set could make him an immediate contributor off the bench.
10. Bryce Cotton, PG, Providence Friars
Win%: .428 | Age: 21.7 | WARP projection: 0.9
The NCAA's iron man, Cotton played 1,398 of a possible 1,450 minutes for the Friars last season while nearly doubling his assist rate. That was an important development because at 6-1, the high-scoring Cotton will have to play the point in the NBA.
I highlighted a few international players with biggest difference between projected draft positions(ford and draftexpress) and Kevin Pelton's ranking here. Great value for stashing overseas.