Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo have exceeded all expectations. (Photo: Soobum Im – USA TODAY Sports)
Sometimes, things are what they are. Unless they aren’t. Every shot thrown at the rim isn’t the same. A Ray Allen rhythm pull-up in space isn’t equal to Ben Wallace taking a contested fade away from the free-throw line, even if both find the bottom of the net. No matter how deep into the NBA’s atomic structure an analytically adept front office maestro looking for any slight advantage would like to dive, it’s never “all about numbers.” And no matter how hard the crusty, round shouldered legends sneer at the rise of data-driven nature of the modern NBA, the “eye test” no longer is enough.
Funny thing, it was NEVER an either-or kind of thing. The following exchange is not a reenactment. Don’t try this level of nuance at home (just kidding. Please, try to use nuance and context like this daily when you’re talking basketball).
James Holas: Follow @JHolasHoops Stephen Curry may be the reigning MVP. Russell Westbrook is pushing the limits of point guard production. The all-around floor game of seven footers like Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid has everyone swooning over the evolution of NBA bigs.
But looking at this current explosion of MVP caliber players (and looking back through history, from Larry Bird to Jordan and Pippen to Kobe to Andre Iguodala and Kawhi Leonard winning finals MVP for their defensive work), it’s obvious that if you want to win big in the NBA, “the wing is the thing.” With five guys working in unison, packing tons of weapons–size, athleticism, scoring prowess, defense, rebounding, playmaking–into one position unlocks all types of value for a team. Currently, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are a coach’s dream when it comes to versatility.
Leonard has morphed from a raw lump of long-armed, stoic clay to a legitimate MVP candidate, and Giannis Antetokounmpo has risen from an unknown Greek curiosity to one of the most exciting players in the league. For both San Antonio and Milwaukee, as their do-it-all swingmen go, so goeth the franchises. You can’t go wrong with either, but honestly, given age (Giannis is three years younger), size (he’s 6’11’ to Kawhi’s 6’7″), and better rim protection and playmaking, tell me why I shouldn’t want Giannis as my cornerstone over Kawhi.
Jesse Blanchard:Follow @blanchardJRB
First, for the purpose of this exercise, let’s narrow this down to a look at the next three or four seasons. Many of the arguments in Antetokounmpo’s favor are going to get carried away by his youth (three years younger than Kawhi) and the impossibility of projecting something we haven’t seen before. Rightfully so. But when I ran this poll on Twitter, I asked the question framed over the next three or four years because, beyond that, our imaginations are going to run wild.
A working theory I’ve been playing around with is that there are two kinds of franchise building blocks. The type of player capable of carrying a team through sheer individual brilliance, and the type of player who lifts teams by working as a stable foundation that allows others to thrive as a unit. I pondered this extensively while watching a depleted Memphis Grizzlies team survive around Marc Gasol while the New Orleans Pelicans still struggle to connect Anthony Davis’ brilliance to anything sustainable. Only two or three players in all of the NBA are comfortably both.
Right now, let’s say Leonard and Antetokounmpo are on opposite sides of this, but both dabble in the other half.
When we did this over Leonard and Paul George, part of your argument revolved around Leonard being supported by Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Well, Duncan is gone and Parker and Ginobili are shells of their former selves, yet the San Antonio Spurs continue to thrive.
James Holas: Yeah, you’ve got me there. I wasn’t expecting a “fall off” of epic proportions, but they’re still in the rarified air of league elite.
Of course, we can’t ignore that LaMarcus Aldridge is more comfy, and Patty Mills previewed his new hyper-aggression in this summer’s Olympics; couple that with the acquisition of Dwayne Dedmon and more minutes for Jonathan Simmons, and you’ve got more of the legendary Spursian “all-together-now” than a magical Kawhi Leonard.
Because that’s the key here; the Spurs en mass are the magic. San Antonio has prepped themselves for LATD (Life After Tim Duncan) for the last five years. I did some quick mathematics and see that San Antonio is 37-17 when Duncan sat in his last five years, like 25-10 in the last three years…and I’m pretty sure in most of those games, Parker and/or Ginobili got the night off, as well.
There are 29 NBA teams and then there’s the Spurs, the ultimate outlier in almost every way. So while Kawhi is a legitimate MVP candidate, and he’s turned himself into one of the most complete players in the NBA, we can’t act like playing in the Basketball Utopia that Pop has built doesn’t make a difference.
And let’s talk about what we’re seeing this year. Once Khris Middleton went down with his injury last summer, only the most optimistic Bucks fan thought that Milwaukee had a prayer of reaching the postseason. Instead on the back of Giannis (and his budding sidekick Jabari Parker), they’re right in the thick of things, even with Matthew “Crikey, They’re Paying Me $9 million a Year” Dellavedova stinking up the joint.
So I’m going to say this the nicest way possible: Kawhi isn’t a “system player,” but benefits greatly from playing in an eco(system) that’s been fine tuned and battle tested over the past two decades. For the Bucks, Giannis IS the system. Antetokounmpo is primed to be Milwaukee’s Tim Duncan. And he’s ONLY 22!
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Jesse Blanchard: Kawhi Leonard plays in a culture that was established before he arrived. As for a system? The schemes are different and redesigned specifically around Leonard’s strengths. Kawhi isn’t primed to be the Spurs’ Tim Duncan. He already is.
Both players have elite physical attributes, with Antetokounmpo holding the edge. But Leonard’s biggest strength is the ability to process seemingly unlimited amounts of information and arriving at the most efficient solution possible. It’s a very Duncan-like quality that frequently put him and the Spurs above more freakish players.
After a rough start to the season for the Spurs defensively, Leonard appears to have figured out how to fill in the defensive gaps for this roster. Some have pointed out the Spurs’ reliance on Parker, Pau Gasol and David Lee as rotational pieces as a hindrance given their defensive, um, limitations. Yet, the Spurs maintain the top Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) in the entire NBA per NBA.com. Again, the start Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and rely on LaMarcus Aldridge to be an elite defense. Antetokounmpo might have nearly limitless defensive potential, but Leonard is the best defensive player in the entire NBA. His current standing would be a success for Antetokounmpo.
The prime Duncan Spurs were described as being machine-like. Mostly because Duncan’s all-around fundamental brilliance provided a framework where players could thrive in very narrow roles. Kawhi Leonard has expanded his entire game to allow for that once more, regardless of the personnel around him. One of his greatest strengths is adaptability–which is a little different than versatility.
James Holas: Not to poop on your “regardless of the personnel around him” hypothesis, but it’s unnerving that the San Antonio defense is almost a full 10 points better when Kawhi is off the floor. I bring this up not to question the man’s bonafides–he’s one of the most impressive defenders I’ve ever seen–but again highlighting just how significant what they’ve constructed in San Antonio is, with or without Kawhi.
And while you say Antetokounmpo would be lucky to be the defender Kawhi is one day, we know Kawhi won’t be growing the four inches taller he’d need to match Giannis’ size, and it’s a safe bet that Leonard will never be the playmaker (Kawhi’s season high is seven assists, and he’s recorded five or more only nine times this year; Giannis has topped five in 24 games and leads his team in dimes) that Giannis is off the dribble, nor the freakish rim protector.
We can talk metrics all day, but Giannis has no Danny Green beside him, no Dewayne Dedmon behind him, no Patty Mills or Manu Ginobili spacing the floor, yet the Bucks are sixth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating since December first. And seeing as Giannis is averaging more points, rebounds, assists, and blocks, while (to use your fancy advanced stats) sporting a higher true shooting percentage, “value over replacement player,” better defensive box score plus/minus, and having more win shares (despite the Bucks having 12 less wins to share than San Antonio), AND is three years younger, it’s more and more obvious which way I’m going, be it the next three years or next decade. Kawhi is an elite player. Giannis is on track to be generational.
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Jesse Blanchard: In December, Kawhi Leonard’s individual Defensive Rating improved to 102.1. As a point of reference, the Atlanta Hawks rate fifth in this metric at 102.1. As the season goes on, the statistical noise that painted Leonard as having a negative defensive impact will quiet and better paint his performance. The improvements already speak to Leonard and the Spurs’ ability to adapt.
You bring up Offensive and Defensive Ratings since December, and they’re impressive as Antetokounmpo finds the full extent of his powers, but the Spurs are currently first in Defensive Rating and fourth in the Offensive Ratings for the season. Since December, they’re the only team allowing under 100 points per 100 possessions in an NBA that is experiencing an offensive explosion.
As for playmaking, it’s a matter of style and the way players are used. Individual assists are something of an overrated measure for evaluating these things. Dirk Nowitzki, for example, never approached point guard like assist-numbers, but was the hub of some brilliant offenses that moved the ball around him, leveraging his threat as a scorer.
The Spurs and Bucks are actually pretty even as a team in terms of assists, with the Bucks owning a slight edge per game (24.6 to 24.2) and the Spurs in assists per 100 possessions (25.3 to 25.1). Kawhi Leonard has a slightly higher usage than Giannis Antetokounmpo according to basketball-reference, and the Spurs, by virtue of their superior offensive rating, are getting more out of those possessions.
Leonard’s statistics will always be somewhat muted because of his utility. But here’s the thing: he’s an elite shooter from every single spot on the court, and the Spurs leverage that gravity to create driving and passing lanes for limited players who couldn’t otherwise create them on their own. Antetokounmpo has to directly impact the play more often because his shooting limitations make him a minus away from the ball. Which is going to put a little more rigidity in the types of players you can put around him than you can Leonard.
That foundational consistency that lifts teammates and makes them better? This, specifically, is what I’m alluding to. As offensive pieces, think Dirk Nowitzki versus, say, Russell Westbrook in terms of form and function. This gets you, stylistically, Kawhi vs. Giannis.
James Holas: I like this Dirk-Russ comparison, and I get it; but if Westbrook was seven inches taller and Dirk was five inches shorter, then Dirk is Mike Dunleavy Jr., and Westbrook is a Bizarro, furious Lebron, you’re making my point for me!
And sure, every assist ain’t the same, dimes CAN be overrated…but every team isn’t the Spurs, and having a guy suck up attention and find guys in prime scoring position matters (of course, if my superstar wasn’t that that good at it, maybe I’d call playmaking overrated too…ha!)
We could go back and forth all day, but bottom line, it’s not a leap to say the husk of Tony Parker and and Patty “Green Light” Mills under the guidance of Popovich are leaps and bounds better than Matthew “Crikey, I can’t believe They’re Paying Me $9 Mil a Year” Dellavedova and the (surprisingly good) rookie Malcolm Brogdon. Zombie Pau Gasol Aldridge have mastered the “Be Really Tall And Get in The Way” scheme in San Antonio, while Miles Plumlee and John Henson kind of amble about aimlessly.
Last thing: we may never see Kawhi drop 24-9-6 with 2 blocks and 2 steals a night because of where he plays, OR…we may never see it because not only he doesn’t have to, but because he can’t. That’s no knock on Kawhi not being a super-skilled 7 footer, but let’s not discount the super-skilled 7-footer for not being Kawhi. Maybe actually SEEING Giannis shouldering such a broad, heavy load makes a difference. I completely understand how much Kawhi’s defense and efficient scoring from everywhere means to what the Spurs do. I also see Giannis slapping up 35-9-7 with SEVEN FREAKING BLOCKS as he smashes Jimmy Butler and the Bulls, and I’m seeing him physically bully LeBron James to the tune of 34-12-5 with FIVE FREAKIN’ STEALS as Milwaukee wipes the floor with the full strength Cavs. This is glimpses of what he’ll become shortly. I’m rolling the dice with that.
Jesse Blanchard: They both have wingspans of 7-feet-3-inches. Leonard isn’t hurting or at a significant deficit in the physical dimensions portion. And we’re talking about Antetokounmpo’s seemingly limitless potential while neglecting we’re not sure what the ceiling of Leonard’s game is. He makes significant strides each year, adding new things to his repertoire in ways we didn’t see the year before.
This season, he’s able to expertly work the pick and roll as the ball handler in greater volume. He’s also getting to the free-throw line more frequently against tougher defenses. And to your point of drawing attention to give others easy looks, that’s precisely what Leonard does. He’s just not always directly involved in the assist. You wouldn’t call him a poor passer.
Anyhow, I prefer this debate to our previous Leonard vs. Paul George throw in from last season. You really can’t go wrong either way. At the very least, by the end of this, hopefully our readers have an appreciation for the type of star Leonard is, and a different way of looking at some franchise players.
James Holas: Whoops. Kawhi making “The Leap” this year, along with Paul George not giving a crap for most of this season, makes the “Kawhi – PG” one look more lopsided every day. I think you used summed up exactly why I view Kawhi so differently from Giannis: “muted”. Kawhi’s game is understated and economical, while Giannis is all looping Euro-steps and crowd stoking displays of athleticism.
Lebron James’ prodigious skill-set fills in any cracks in the Cavaliers mosaic, allowing his specialists to focus on the tasks at hand. Seeing how there’s only one King, the silent assassin in San Antonio and the multitalented Milwaukee Buck are both young lords poised to rule to the league for years to come.
(I’m still taking credit for a “win” here, though. Victory is mine!)
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