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By Adam Spinella
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Have you ever watched a movie and said silently to yourself “hey, I’ve seen this before?” The plot line is the same as another famous story, just a different cast and setting. It happens a lot, especially with Shakespeare and other famous works that get re-imagined in modern day scenarios.
It also takes a while to identify that the plot line is following the same arc. A few similarities can be written off as a coincidence. After a while, it turns into a downright copycat once seen through the same lens.
That is what is currently going on for the Minnesota Timberwolves, where every day brings a tick of the clock closer to the judgment day for Tom Thibodeau and the front office brass in Minnesota. They find themselves, day by day, arc by arc, following in the footsteps of the Oklahoma City Thunder and their blueprint towards taking several high-value draft picks and parlaying them to a run towards the top of the Western Conference.
The situations are not identical, but mirror each other in many ways. Two small-market teams that struggled for years, landed several high-value draft picks in a row. By taking one or two high-level prospects every year for three straight seasons, the front office had the unenviable task of sorting out how to get all players to coexist, continue to develop and figure out who will stay with the team long-term and who they cash in for other assets.
Furthermore, a comparison of these two situations serves a purpose greater than simply informing the masses who choose to be educated about the game of basketball. Hopefully a comparison of the two franchises and their paths can awaken a front office into not making the same mistakes again, or the public from overreacting to what could be a necessary and unpopular decision.
Year One
Original: 2007-2008 Sonics
After back-to-back seasons missing the playoffs, the Seattle SuperSonics scored big in the 2007 draft, landing the second overall pick. That parlayed them the superstar, Kevin Durant. Wanting to rebuild around him, the Sonics and new GM Sam Presti also made a blockbuster deal to bring in the fourth overall pick, Jeff Green, from the Boston Celtics. Seattle sent their biggest star to Boston in exchange, shipping off Ray Allen, who was an All-Star every season in Seattle. Allen averaged over 24 points per game in Seattle, and the trade signaled a bottoming-out of their roster to let Durant and Jeff Green mature. Durant looked great as a rookie, while Green struggled with consistency. Seattle went 20-62 that season, featured the 29th ranked offense that season and once again secured a high-value draft pick.
The Remake: 2014-2015 Timberwolves
It had been years since the Kevin Garnett trade to Boston, and Kevin Love was the featured star for Minnesota during that post-KG era. It never materialized; the three-time All-Star couldn’t lead the Wolves to the playoffs, despite averaging 23.5 points and 13.7 rebounds over the final four seasons in Minnesota. Seeing an opportunity to flip Love to a team looking to win now that had a high-value draft pick, GM Flip Saunders sold Love to get a high-scoring swing man to build around. Saunders had also drafted Zach LaVine with a lottery pick that season, giving the Wolves another exciting young player.
Minnesota went 16-66 during the 2014-2015 campaign, boasting the league’s worst defense. Wiggins looked the part of a superstar, coming on strong during the tail end of his rookie season. LaVine was inconsistent and labeled a “tweener” guard. Playing next to a pass-first point guard in Ricky Rubio was difficult for him, but there was still clear potential. Minnesota saw the lottery balls bounce their way and landed the first overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Year Two
Original: 2008-2009 OKC Thunder
With a move to a new market, the Thunder brought on another top-five pick in Russell Westbrook. With Westbrook, Durant and Jeff Green on the roster, the roots for a successful rebuild were starting to poke through the earth. Chemistry issues and growing pains took root, but the three young studs were the three leading scorers in Oklahoma City (coincidentally, the only three to average double-figures). The team traded for Thabo Sefolosha at the mid-season break, hoping to give the team a solid presence in the locker room and another defender to fill the team’s void on the wing. Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant and Green were the stable 1 thru 4 that the Thunder would build around. Other young players of promise included Shaun Livingston and Robert Swift.
The second season of the KD era saw the Thunder go 23-59, once again finishing last in the league in offensive rating. A coaching change in November changed the franchise trajectory, with Scott Brooks taking over for P.J. Carlesimo after a dreadful start. Durant, only two years into his career, had all the looks of a superstar. Westbrook showed flashes of potential — superstar potential — and was a wonderful long-term compliment to Durant due to his perimeter defense. Jeff Green found a little more offensive consistency, shooting 39 percent from three in his sophomore campaign. It wasn’t a successful season for OKC, but once again they ended up with a high-value draft pick for the 2009 draft.
The remake: 2015-2016 Timberwolves
The second superstar was drafted by Flip Saunders, choosing Karl-Anthony Towns as an obvious selection to flank Andrew Wiggins. Towns won Rookie of the Year and was a dominant big man, redefining the position of center in a positive fashion. Wiggins continued to score at a high level, though questions over his defense remained. Wiggins, Towns and LaVine led the team in scoring throughout the season, while Gorgui Dieng emerged to fill another key spot by flanking Karl-Anthony Towns in the frontcourt. Trading away Kevin Martin at the midseason point brought Kevin Garnett to the franchise to serve as a mentor and defensive anchor to their best players.
The coaching was less than stable throughout the season. Sam Mitchell was tasked with replacing the late Flip Saunders that year, and had to inculcate other youngsters into the lineup: Tyus Jones, Nemanja Bjelicia, Shabazz Muhammad and Adreian Payne. The Wolves suffered again on the defensive end, turning in another defensive rating ranking them in the bottom three in the league. They finished the year 29-53 and once again secured a top-notch draft pick.
Year Three
Original: 2009-2010 Thunder
Two high-value first-rounders came into Oklahoma City, giving them yet another group of young men to flank around their core. James Harden and Serge Ibaka filled the two needs the roster had: outside shooting/ playmaking in the backcourt, and a rim protector. Now, the Thunder appeared to have all the tools necessary to make it in the future. Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green and Ibaka, with the still young Thabo Sefolosha to hold the pieces together and other serviceable veterans flanking them.
Anticipation was high for the Thunder that season, though questions about how close they were to competing for a playoff spot still tempered expectations. The difference for Oklahoma City wasn’t just the veteran presence of their frontcourt pieces (Nick Collison and Nenad Krstic) but the unexpected contributions from other rookies and youngsters, such as Eric Maynor. The core of Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Green stayed healthy for all 82 games that season. Ibaka and Harden looked okay that season, showing why they were lottery picks, but leaving some doubt as to if they were really on the same level as their three young predecessors.
Those Thunder exceeded their preseason hopes, winning 50 games and jumping an incredible 27-game improvement. They lost in the first-round to the Lakers in six games, but there was no mistaking: this core group was the next big threat in the NBA.
The Remake: 2016-2017 Timberwolves
This is where the story starts to veer in separate directions. New coach and GM Tom Thibodeau was brought in to install a defensive culture with the Wolves. Lottery selection Kris Dunn is the long-term backcourt compliment to Zach LaVine, in the same vein Harden and Westbrook were supposed to work together. Wiggins is in his third season and has (so far) taken a big step forward. Towns has emerged as more of the superstar than Wiggins, and might be at or above the level where Durant was after his second season.
However, the Timberwolves are not darting up the standings like the Thunder did all those years ago. Seeing what the Thunder did with their core in the third season, there were hopes that Minnesota would do the same. Where are the holes? LaVine, Ricky Rubio, Wiggins, Dieng and Towns carry the starting unit, while Dunn and Bjelicia are key bench contributors.
To be sure, there are flaws with this roster. First and foremost, Ricky Rubio is not the Thabo Sefolosha-type supporting cast member that can allow this young core to grow together. Rubio demands the ball in his hands to be effective: he’s a woeful shooter. The playmaking he brings them with the ball in his hands makes him an uncomfortable flank to Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins, both of whom thrive in isolation.
Rubio has the reputation of a solid defender, but I firmly believe the Wolves are better off with a three-and-D player taking some of his minutes, allowing LaVine to slide to point guard. Those who boast about Rubio’s on/off defensive metrics throughout his career need to remember who his backups have been: Luke Ridnour, J.J. Barea, Mo Williams and now Zach LaVine. Those on-court metrics are inflated by poor defenders behind him, not an overall positive rating Rubio inflicts. Translation: he may be a good defender, but he’s not as good as the career measurables suggest. LaVine is much more athletic and designed to defend elite point guards, whereas Rubio gets abused by forced switches where he has to battle bigger wings in the post. That’s why he was benched for the fourth quarter three straight games starting Nov. 25.
Rubio is signed until July 2019, which diminishes his trade value a bit. He’s worthy of 28 to 30 minutes a night on a solid team, but likely isn’t a key cog in the wheel of a championship team. The modern NBA, valuing shooting and versatility on defense, leaves Rubio a half-step behind. Rubio’s presence blocks LaVine and Dunn from sharing the court for longer stretches, a natural fit next to the more apparent superstar in LaVine.
Dunn has struggled a bit out of the gates, shooting less than 33 percent from the field early in this rookie campaign. It’s enough of a worry for an old rookie to cause the Wolves to hesitate in giving away Rubio for pennies on the dollar. In other words, there’s no guarantee that the residual effect of simply parting from Rubio is going to be a positive. For that reason, it’s hard to imagine the Wolves getting rid of Rubio this winter and clearing the path for that two-man backcourt to thrive.
The Wolves have yet to solve their defensive issues in the way Scott Brooks and Oklahoma City of 2010 changed the team’s offense to mold around their stars. A lot of the Wolves’ issues revolve around effort consistency from Wiggins and LaVine, who seem much more interested in scoring the ball, and finding a solution to the Rubio problem.
Similarities, Differences and Future Projections
It’s difficult to envision the Wolves not becoming a legitimate playoff staple in the West, even after a slow and disappointing start to this season. There’s simply too much raw talent on this roster with Wiggins, LaVine and Towns. They’ve drafted well everywhere else, surrounding that core with good young players that, if they don’t fit stylistically, can help net the team a better fit. With this group, it’s a matter of when, not a matter of if.
Unless the front office screws the pooch.
There’s a very real chance of that happening, with all the extensions and contract negotiations coming down the pike. This is the main takeaway from any comparison to the Thunder blueprint up to this point: Minnesota cannot keep everybody. Wiggins, Towns, Dunn and LaVine are all players you should anticipate coughing up eight-figures to in future extensions. Gorgui Dieng signed a four-year, $64 million extension this fall, the first domino to fall. Next are Wiggins and LaVine, who both could command a max contract.
The Thunder made a decision regarding their core all those years ago: get rid of Jeff Green (see the 2012 trade deadline) in an effort to help propel the team towards a championship. Extend Durant and Westbrook to the max. Then came the controversial decision: keep Ibaka, value the defense, and avoid giving out a third max contract that would send the team into years of luxury tax payments that cripple small market teams’ bottom-line.
That decision has always been controversial for Sam Presti, for so many reasons. The casual fans see a chance that the Thunder sold out on a truly special three-headed monster core that could have dominated the NBA for a decade. Some NBA executives haven’t viewed it as black-and-white, but believe the rewards outweighed the risks. Others are put off by the cheapened view of a franchise for choosing money over an all-out championship pursuit. Presti also takes heat for the loot of the Harden trade.
That may be where Tom Thibodeau takes his biggest lesson. If you make a decision to trade one of these future pillars, make it before your back is against a wall. Once Thibodeau makes the decision of who is the odd man out of their future plans, he should cash out immediately. Waiting until that player is extension-ready or pushing to walk away causes the return on any trade to drop. Thibodeau still has a year or two to figure out who that player will be.
Another area where Thibodeau can learn from Presti: the Kendrick Perkins saga. Perkins was a limited player with a specific skill set. He defended back-to-basket scorers incredibly well and set some dynamite screens. Asking him to score? Forget about it. Defending on the perimeter? Keep dreaming. Perkins was signed to a long-term deal with the Thunder after they acquired him in 2012. While he served his purpose early, he was exposed in the Finals against the Heat as a hodgepodge of poor defense against stretch bigs and a detriment to their offense.
Ricky Rubio may be the Kendrick Perkins of this Wolves team. Look at his offensive output: he’s got an effective shooting percentage of .386 this season, and is routinely abused on the defensive end of the court due to his size. A player that was fairly effective in his role a few seasons ago is now unlikely to move the needle in the right direction for a team with championship aspirations. Sound familiar?
Thibodeau will need to deal Rubio before it gets to that point, where the loot of pennies-on-the-dollar is acceptable. Unlike Presti, he has a valuable long-term replacement to his stylistic problem. Keeping Rubio is only acceptable if Kris Dunn doesn’t pan out, and even if he isn’t the stud he was believed to be on draft night, there’s still value in his rookie contract being on the books until July 2020.
There’s not much doubt that, if the Wolves can, they will keep LaVine, Wiggins and Towns. Three players that eat up about 70 percent of the cap? It’s a dangerous precedent to set, but one that is ultimately up to Glen Taylor, or whoever owns the Wolves at the point of decision. With Rubio and Dieng also signed, that is likely to push the Wolves at or above any salary cap by the 2018-2019 season. With changes expected in a new CBA, nothing is certain about how the cap will look 24 months from now. This dramatic rise we’ve seen over the past 24 months cannot be sustainable, though.
The reality that NBA fans need to be prepared for right now is this: the Timberwolves very well may not be able to keep all three. Dealing one of those stars then becomes a necessity. LaVine and Wiggins are, as hard as it is to believe, extension eligible in just a few months, as next season will be the last on their rookie deal. The decision-making time for Thibodeau could come as soon February, and could look a lot of different ways.
Dealing Wiggins? Don’t write it off just yet. Thibs is an old-school guy that loves two-way players. The tools are all in place for Wiggins to become an elite defender, but if Thibodeau isn’t on board with his personality and work ethic getting him to that level, it could be bon voyage for the former first overall pick. Wiggins has a lot of upside for teams that need go-to scoring and young talent, and Thibodeau would be able to score quite a loot for a player with the offensive skill set that Wiggins brings.
LaVine, on the other hand, is the name heard more frequently in trade talks among teams searching for a star guard. The Lakers could get in on the bidding, and they certainly have enough talented pieces to appease the Wolves’ appetite in trading LaVine away. Miami and Philadelphia need young backcourt help, although a third party would likely have to be involved in deals with those teams.
It’s easy to look at the Wolves’ start and think that any trade talk revolving around these stars is an overreaction to a poor start for the season. On the contrary, this is a preemptive strike to cash in on their currently-high value before it starts to dip. Wiggins and LaVine currently have that star value as max contract guys. If struggles persist in Minnesota and the team’s defense does not improve after a full year or two under Thibodeau, that value could decrease. The NBA front office is all about assessing value and tracking it over time… any trade involving their mega stars would not be a rash decision at all.
Kevin Durant was in the NBA Finals in his fifth NBA season; Westbrook after his fourth. We’re still a ways away from this Timberwolves core reaching that level of precision. Would it be a shame to see the Wolves split this promising young trio before they have the chance to get there? Certainly. But it could also open the door to a more sustainable future.
You’ll never get me to say that the James Harden trade wasn’t a good idea for the Thunder organization — it was a necessary one, and one that Presti executed at the right time. The Thunder fell victim to their own success, small market demands and above all else, timing. They had to dismantle that nucleus before it fully realized its own strength so that the core could still be strong.
Timberwolves front office folks have the unenviable task of making the next push down this road. Those decisions they must make are mammoth ones, which will shift and alter the direction of the franchise no matter how they proceed. In order to make the best-informed decisions and set up their franchise for future success, they must stare at this complex equation for years, constantly reevaluating it with new data and developments throughout the season. Those reevaluations won’t change the fact that a decision must be done. The blueprint laid out by the Thunder may not be the perfect one, but there are lessons to be learned throughout.
Those who do not learn from the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it.
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From the Coaches Seat
Atlanta, Improving One Weakness Creates Another – The Hawks addressed a need this summer by adding Dwight Howard to anchor their rim defense and increase their rebounding, which was a huge drawback in their postseason series the past two seasons. In adjusting to Howard, the Hawks made the decision to extend Dennis Schroder and make him their starting point guard, moving on from Jeff Teague. The ramifications of increasing their pick-and-roll offense? Turnovers. The Hawks are 29th in the league, averaging over 16 turnovers a game, mainly due to Schroder’s erratic decision-making.
A formerly strong three-point shooting team, the Hawks are now 26th in the league in three-point percentage at 32.5 percent. My theory: their offense featured Al Horford and Paul Millsap stretching defenses to the top of the key. Because opposing big men both had to spend time on the perimeter, the rim was left unguarded more frequently. That allowed Hawks guards and wings to penetrate-and-kick to open shooters in corners, or allow the ball to move to open players, when the help defense would collapse to the rim. Now that Howard lives and breathes on the block, that help defense is standing right near the rim, so the drive-and-kick lanes are not as threatening and guys defending the corners do less to help at the rim.
Too many pieces in Mile High City – The Nuggets are an enigma. Lots of young talent… none appear to be the superstar. Perhaps it is time for GM Tim Connolly to consider stripping away some of those younger pieces for a singular, more reliable piece. The biggest obstacle to the development of guys like Gary Harris and Jamal Murray? Each other. Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic? Tough to always find minutes together. Veterans of worth like Faried, Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Jameer Nelson? Somebody will want them.
Denver is the ripe for the picking for any team (cough, Sacramento, cough) looking to get rid of a star player and start from scratch. They can get rid of a talented young guard or a big, a veteran worthy of starter’s minutes, and have a two first-round draft picks this year to deal out (Memphis’ 2017 pick, which was strengthened by Conley’s injury, is the pick additional to their own). Keep your eye on the Nuggets falling into the conversation for one of the larger names available this deadline.
Vogel’s Rotation Tinkering – Frank Vogel is a really good coach, and it’s a damn shame he’s got such an inept front office that doesn’t understand how to assemble pieces that compliment each other. Sunday’s win over the Pistons proved Vogel’s rotational savvy when he inserted D.J. Augustin into the starting lineup. Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon and two big men cannot all play side-by-side — there’s just too few shooters on the court at one time. By putting Augustin in the starting role ahead of Payton, there’s increased spacing and Payton gets to run the pick-and-roll with Vucevic in the second unit. It’s going to take a while for the Magic to stabilize their rotations, but Vogel may be onto something here bringing Vooch and Elfrid off the bench.
The Clippers Are Being Weird Again – A few weeks after writing that the Clippers are the best team in the West, those words are starting to be tough to swallow. They dropped three in a row over a week ago — to the Pistons, Pacers and Nets — then throttled the Cavs by 20, only to lose to the Pacers at home just a few days later. It’s still unclear what’s fading for the Clippers, but if Blake Griffin can stay or get healthy, the Clips should rebound nicely.
Toronto’s Top-Flight Offense – It’s time to start taking the Raptors seriously as a threat to Cleveland in the East. Their offense is incredibly efficient, trailing only the Warriors in offensive efficiency metrics, and that comes even with DeMar DeRozan starting to cool off and come down to earth. There’s balance of scorers, lots of misdirection pick-and-roll action, and players that can all finish in transition. Go big? The Raptors can play that way. Go small? Their lineup is built for that as well. More to come soon if the Raps keep winning…
Portland’s Bottom-Flight Defense – On the other end of the spectrum are the Blazers, struggling on defense in a way they haven’t in many years. Frankly, we should have seen this coming. Lillard and McCollum are small guards at their positions, while Evan Turner is fairly putrid on that end of the court. Right now zero Blazers exhibit All-Pro effort on the defensive end, to put it generously. But there’s no rim protector behind them, as the Blazers have favored skilled and stretch big men instead of gritty rim protectors. A return to the court for Festus Ezeli would help Portland on that end, but it may be a trade for a veteran center that ends up saving their postseason hopes.
2017 NBA Draft – Those of you readers who aren’t college fans or barely pay attention to the draft reports until April, listen up: this year’s class is stuffed with elite talent. There are probably more superstars in the mold here than the last three drafts combined. Yup, it’s that good. Need a star big man? You can get one this June. How about a point guard? Yep, we’ve got those too. You need to be paying attention to those players.
So if you’re a fan of a struggling team, say, the Magic, Heat, Pelicans or Mavericks, you should be pulling for your team to secure a top draft pick this June. Sorry, Brooklyn fans… nothing I can say will bring back your first-rounder.
Sets of the Week
Hornets Horns Circle DHO
More Horns, more guys starting in unconventional spots. Here’s a Steve Clifford set with the Hornets placing Frank Kaminsky in the corner as a shooter and Nic Batum at the elbow. Walker hits Spencer Hawes at one elbow, then goes to set a pin-down for Batum. Batum comes off, gets a handoff from Hawes and attacks the rim. It’s a difficult set to defend, and the Hornets’ versatility is huge. Hawes does a great job reading Gasol’s help, and LaMarcus Aldridge just isn’t quick enough to get from in guarding position against a shooter in the corner to the rim to help tag the roller. Nice action.
Spurs Philly Rip
Popovich ATO alert! The guy knows how to get the ball in the hands of his best players when they need it. In a close fourth quarter contest, he gets LaMarcus Aldridge the ball where he loves it in the mid-post with a screen-the-screener action to drop him down. Aldridge sets the philly screen for Leonard at the elbows, then comes off a rip screen to drop himself into the post. What I love most about this set? The movement after the post entry. The Spurs absolutely cut hard away from Aldridge so that he has space, time and the ability to read the defense and see a double clearly. Pau Gasol does his job engaging the baseline helper with physicality, the second step that every big should take after they dive to the opposite block.
Warriors Flex 45 Snug
Kevin Durant and Draymond Green both come off a lot of flex screens in the Warriors’ early offense sets, allowing them to isolate in a scoring area while having three shooters run the perimeter around them to space the floor. Stephen Curry almost always ends up in the corner opposite the isolation: he can be the cross screener, or drift down to the corner (as he does here) because his man offers no help at the rim, and most times help defense will come from the lowest opposite defender.
The role of the fifth man, Zaza Pachulia, is most important for Kerr. Frequently, Pachulia stands at the opposite elbow or the top of the circle and sets flare screens, constantly looking for some body to hit to open more of a lane for shooters on kickouts. His defender must stay attached to prevent a curl, which is an easy pass out of the post.
Kerr adds a counter here, with Durant in the post. He sends Pachulia to set a ball screen, with Durant’s back to the basket, which is referred to as a snug screen. Durant comes off, and as Pachulia rolls there’s virtually no help on the roll man — the Curry effect in the opposite corner. Dwight Howard does the right thing here and drops off to protect the rim and force Durant into the mid-range pull-up, but this is going to be a lethal action and counter for the Warriors.
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