Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets have exceeded James Holas’ expectations. (Photo: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports)
By James Holas
Follow @JHolasHoops
This is what we’ve been salivating for. As of Nov. 13, there are five 30+ point scorers in the NBA; there are three players flirting with averaging a triple-double. Two games separate the 1 seed and the 8 seed out West (ok, ok, we’re less than 10 games into the year, that’s actually not that impressive).
With so much incredible basketball, we also have questions. When we have questions, don’t worry, I have answers. It’s time for another thrilling episode of the All-Ball Mailbag. Let’s dive in.
@NAT3004: “Who will be the first team that starts tanking this season?”
Ah, a tradition as rich as barbeque and fireworks on the Fourth of July, or that one uncle or aunt getting drunk and getting into a screaming match with someone at Thanksgiving dinner.
The Annual NBA Tankathon: when a handful of teams realize that they’re screwed so they TRY to start losing. Some are brazen, like the Philadelphia 76ers, who waved the white flag by adamantly refusing to pay actual ball players and using the season as extended training camp for second round picks over the last couple of years. Some keep it hush-hush, like the Los Angeles Lakers, who TRIED (WINK WINK) to win with Coach Byron “Man Up” Scott in Kobe’s last two seasons. For serious, no, SERIOUSLY, they didn’t even WANT those protected lottery picks, bro.
So what team will be the first to realize that they’re up Crap Creek and clear the decks to nab a juicy draft pick? Which front office will take a long look at the mediocrity they’ve wrought and glumly press the plunger on the bundle of roster dynamite?
There are a few candidates. The Washington Wizards just gave Bradley Beal franchise type money, and he’s already missing games. Outside of John Wall, Beal and Marcin Gortat, the roster is intriguing but relatively unremarkable (yeah I know, Otto Porter is awesome). Oh, and there’s reports about the two best players on the team not really liking each other. Washington is 18th in defensive rating, 22nd in offensive rating and gives up tons of threes (seventh most makes against, second highest three-point percentage against). The Wiz currently sit at 2-7, good (bad?) for 14th in the East. If management gets fed up, it’d be a cinch to find a home for Wall on that “old school” max deal of his and have Beal come down with a litany of phantom hammy strains or “soreness”.
Pat “Warhorse™” Riley ain’t about that tank life; he let a franchise legend walk so that he could make it rain on Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson, with the logic being that they’d defend like the Dickens, that youngsters Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow were ready to step up and that Dion Waiters is good.
Welp.
The defense is fine; per Basketball-Reference.com, they sit at seventh in the NBA with a 103.1 defensive rating. The bad news: they have the third crappiest offense in the NBA, junking their way to scoring 100 points per 100 possessions (by contrast, the league-leading Los Angeles Clippers slap up 110 points per 100 possessions; the 16th ranked Indiana Pacers weigh in with an offensive rating of 106).
With this 2017 draft being heralded as, to put it technically, “hella loaded”, and with the Heat not having a first round pick in 2018, it would behoove Riley & Co to just go ahead and burn it all down if things keep going south in South Beach.
But my choice?
The Orlando Magic are in season five ADH (after Dwight Howard). Coming into this year, the Magic have thrilled to 103 victories, and tasted the grossness of 225 losses since Dwight giggled his way to Los Angeles. They traded away talented young guys on rookie deals for a harebrained playoff dream, and this off season have cobbled together a head scratchingly mismatched roster yet again.
And it shows. Record-wise, 3-6 in an 82 game season isn’t that big of a deal. Looking at point differential? Orlando ranks 29th, their -10.3 differential better than only Philly’s.
Orlando’s front office has rotated coaches and churned the rosters constantly, quashing any spark of continuity, cohesion, or chemistry along the way. They’ve shifted directions and goals almost yearly, don’t be surprised if they hit the TNT plunger on the roster yet again.
@Trill__Parcells: “Well after watching tonight’s game. Are the Bulls going to be better than we think they are?”
@BrothersLehman: “thoughts on my Bulls so far? I must admit I’m surprised by how well they’re playing, but chemistry seems to be there. JL”
One of my favorite twitter handles is “Trill Parcells”; up there with Chargers’ “Mike Ya Boy” and or “Knuck If You Buck Pagano” for the Colts (I made those up, y’all can use them….you’re welcome”.
And the Brothers Lehman are my guys, wonder why they continue to disrespect me and not invite me on their podcast? Ah well, one of life’s great mysteries.
And yes, I predicted gloom and doom when the Chicago Bulls signed Rajon Rondo (coming into this season, he’s shot 29 percent from three and made 190 threes in 645 games) and Dwyane “386 threes made in 855 games at a 28 percent clip” Wade to join Jimmy Butler. I figured the lineup would look like 7’2” Shaq folded into a Buick LaCrosse: awkward and cramped from lack of spacing.
And to be fair, they both asked this in the first week of the season. Early on, the Bulls were 3-0. Wade and Butler were shooting almost 50 percent from three combined, and they had rousing wins over the Boston Celtics and Pacers. There was dancing in the streets of the Windy City, and for more than just the Chicago Cubs.
Pump the brakes. Maybe we underestimated the synergy of Wade and Butler, but since that 3-0 start, Chicago has gone 3-4, Wade’s three-point percentage has plummeted to 28 percent in those seven games, and Rondo, as feared by many, has been a net negative, shooting 33 percent from the floor and (surprise!) not playing defense.
Jimmy Butler (24 points, 5.5 rebounds, four assists, 43 percent from three and two steals per gamegame) has been incredible, at least.
But with the Pacers and Wizards both looking much worse than I thought they would, maybe, just maybe, by season’s end I’ll be eating crow about my Bulls prediction.
@EricLilly7: “Pacers slow start vs weak teams a concern for you?”
At the other end of the spectrum, after watching Paul George get his Pacers this close to upsetting the Raptors in the playoffs, I was brimming with confidence about the Pacers making a leap. Jeff Teague? He’s not a defender like George Hill, but he’s so quick, and hey, he was just an all-star! No Ian Mahimni, but Al Jefferson? Trade some defense for some offense, all good!
Woah boy. The Pacers clunked out to 4-6, with a defense that’s springing more leaks than the DNC’s email server. Indiana has the 24th worst defense, is 23rd in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, and allow the third highest effective field goal percentage in the league.
Teague has struggled to adapt to his new environment. His numbers across the board are the lowest they’ve been in years, and he’s often food defensively (first game of the season, Deron Williams and JJ Barea lit up the Pacers for a combined 47 points, 13 assists, and seven threes).
But the most worrisome thing? These quotes attributed to Paul George from a Nate Taylor Indy Star post game wrap after the Hornets smacked Indy 122-100.
“We’re all out of whack,” George said. “There’s no trust, there’s no chemistry, there’s no belief. We’re kind of just lifeless right now.”
(You can read the rest of the story here)
Hearing your leader so pointedly rip the lack of chemistry and energy so early in the season definitely give me pause, and the thing is, he’s not wrong. The Pacers had a ton of roster change this summer, a new coach, a new starting point guard and a new philosophy. It’s going to take time for everyone to get acclimated to new roles and new teammates. But those aren’t the words of a very happy man.
I say all of that to say, YUP, Eric, I’m getting a little concerned about the Indiana Pacers.
@aheroamongmen: ”Thoughts on Hornets?”
*Sigh* you guys just HAVE to rub it in, don’t you?
Okay, so I spent the summer telling anyone who would listen that the Charlotte Hornets lost too much this offseason. Last year’s team found strength in numbers: Kemba Walker and Nic Batum were the heavy hitters, but the ancillary guys shone as well. Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee and Al Jefferson, in particular, brought a ton to the table for Buzz City. The trio combined for about 33 points, 12 boards, and 6.5 assists last year, providing (in parts) slashing, shooting, defense and interior scoring, helping take some of the scoring load from Kemba’s shoulders.
Well, all three have moved on to other pastures, and the replacements- Marco Belinelli, Ramon Sessions and Roy Hibbert- are okay players, but not quite what they had before in last year’s trio.
What I didn’t account for is:
Kemba going all Wolverine on the league. Walker was phenomenal last year; he averaged nearly 21-4-5 and shot a career best 37 percent from three. This season, Walker kicked it up several notches, exploding for 26 points, four rebounds, 5.6 assists and shooting an incendiary 46.6 percent from downtown. Now, I somehow doubt Walker continues to maintain a three-point percentage 10 percentage points higher than his previous career high, but even with some regression to the mean, Kemba is a bad, bad man.
Frank Kaminsky being worth a damn. I wasn’t a fan of his coming out of college, and even though several Charlotte writers I follow were adamant that he was pretty good last year, all I saw when I watched him play was a juxtaposition of Cam from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and Keanu Reeves doing a Lonely Island skit about a basketball player. I didn’t take him seriously. So far this year, the duo of Kaminsky and Zeller are combining for 22.3 points and 8.3 rebounds a night. Toss in Hibbert’s eight and four a game, and the center position is looking good in North Carolina.
The “MKG Effect”. Sure, I understand how important defense is, and I recognize how uniquely versatile Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is defensively. I underrated how infectious his energy is, and how his constant kinetics seems to galvanize his team. His numbers on the year (8.6 points, eight rebounds and 1.6 steals per game) are fine, but they don’t accurately portray how vital his role as a rebounder, slasher, cutter and defender is.
Steve Clifford can coach his ass off.
So, yeah. I figured the Hornets would scuffle a bit this year with three guys who all played pretty significant roles in the success of last year gone. Instead, the Hornets are sitting pretty with the third best defense and the 12th ranked offense, which is the healthy profile of a very, very good team.
My bad.
@WEKetchum: “Have an early pick for Most Improved Player?”
This is usually an award I don’t really pay attention to. It seems to usually go to a young guy whose natural progression + more minutes = MIP. And I know this is silly, everyone wants to recognized for hard work…but it’s like, these guys get paid big moolah to play basketball, isn’t getting better what they’re SUPPOSED to do? Like the Chris Rock bit, “how you getting praise for what you SUPPOSED ta do?!”
But to answer your question, there’s quite a few worthy candidates. The Wizards’ Otto Porter is taking full advantage of a slight uptick in minutes and providing big impact. His scoring, rebounding, true shooting percentage and usage are all up, while his turnover percentage is down. He’s playing decisively and with confidence, showing a lot of growth to his game.
Hell, right now, you may have to put DeMar DeRozan’s name among the most improved. DeRozan is playing like a scorer possessed. Zone or man, who the defender is, early or deep shot clock situation, none of matters: opponents are at his mercy.
I’m pretty sure there’s no way that DeRozan maintains his insanely hot shooting. He’s only playing a single minute more than last year (35.9 minutes per game last year, 37.1 this year), but he’s getting up seven more (and making five more) shots a game. He made about 37 percent of his long twos over the previous three seasons; this year, he’s draining freaking 50 percent of those shots. I saw someone call this phenomenon the “DeRozan F**K U INTERNET tour. He’s been raked over the coals for years for his affection for the most inefficient shot in basketball, but now, he’s making them at a brain-melting rate.
Harrison Barnes is off to a blazing start for Dallas. So far, he’s gotten all of the pundits (me included) eating their words. He’s still kind of inconsistent (two games of 14 or less points, three games of 31 or more), he still won’t pass the damn ball, but hey, 22 points and six rebounds per game is nothing to sneeze at.
My pick? TJ Warren. The third-year swingman is getting BUCKETS for the Phoenix Suns. He’s the type of kid that can fall out of bed and score 13 while he’s dusting himself off. Much like DeRozan, the three-point game is nil, but he’s a master of using change of speeds and athleticism to finish over, around and sometimes through defenders. This is probably the most blatant case of “more minutes/natural progression” out of all of these candidates, but screw it. It’s MY list.
Now, onward to the lightning round!
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA’s 15 best players. (Photo: Benny Sieu – USA TODAY Sports)
@ShafftyBro: “Is Giannis a top 15 player?”
Giannis Alphabet is playing like a man possessed. He’s averaging 21.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, two steals and two blocks a night; no one else can say that, this year, or ever. Let’s take the steals and blocks out of it; the only player to ever put up at least 21-8-5 a night and shoot at least 52 percent from the floor? LeBron James in his dominant 2012-2013 Heat season.
So, yeah, I’d say at this moment he’s playing like a top 15 player. It’s a long season though and we’ve all seen MVP Paul George for 20 games, then succumb to wear and tear.
@stepfdelaghetto: “Is it me, or are the Detroit Pistons playing better without Reggie Jackson?”
Let’s take a gander.
Last season, the Piston offense generated a 108.9 offensive rating with Jackson on the floor, about the same as the sixth ranked offense of last year’s Portland Trail Blazers.
This year, he hasn’t played a minute, and the offensive rating is 103, placing them 21st in the league. Now, the defense IS markedly better than it was with him in the games last year, BUT, it’s also much better this year (102.3 defensive rating, good for sixth in the NBA) than it was with him on the bench last year (105.1 defensive rating).
So to sum up, the defense last year was slightly better when he was on the bench, but the offense was WAY worse. He’s a big, strong, quick point guard who makes himself a threat to score as the pick and roll ball handler, something they don’t really have now in Ish Smith.
@bmortensen13579: “is Harrison Barnes’ hot start a mirage or can he be a legit go-to scorer for Dallas?”
I think he’ll continue to be inconsistent, and he’s still taking and making a ton of “bad” shots (a whopping 30 percent of his shots are long twos, up from 18 percent last year, but he’s making them at an insane clip (60.5 percent).
Maybe he just needed the minutes and touches to unlock The Black Falcon on the league. Maybe pigs will fly out of my-
I think he’ll stabilize out at around 16 to 18 points per game.
@CacaoBuddha: “Can Devin Booker truly take the next step and become elite?”
For sure. His ceiling is sky high, and in the years to come, the better his teammates get, the easier it’ll be for him, the better he’ll look. He has one of the prettiest jumpers in the game and the results are slowly catching up to the process. He’s hitting a mind blowing 52 percent on long twos, but only hitting 31 percent of his threes this year. No matter; it’s easy to forget he’s only 20, there’s plenty of room for growth. He’s already cutting his turnovers down this year (Bledsoe being back probably helps that). He has a long way to go defensively, but if/when that shooting translates to threes, and he finds consistency, he can be a monster.
Now, question: what do you mean by elite? An elite shooter, a la Korver? Elite shooter + scorer, like Dame? Elite all-around player? Each successive one is more and more unlikely, but he DOES have all the tools.
@33Trigger: “Can Avery Bradley make his first AS team this year? Is this sustainable, in other words?”
It’d be cool but I don’t think so. He came out of the gates smokin’; 20.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and four assists per game through the first five games, while hitting 48 percent of his six three ball attempts a night. That’s awesome. And probably unsustainable.
Maybe things will pick up for him when AL Horford and Crowder are back; they’d help prevent defenses from cheating his way and get him cleaner looks, but he’s been shooting 30 percent from downtown since the Cavs game.
Russell Westbrook is a one-man army, but is it enough? (Photo: Bill Streicher – USA TODAY Sports)
@SenorPrepotente: “could Russ end up being “the guy no one wants to play with”?”
Russell Westbrook plays with the fury of 1,000 suns whose mothers have all been disrespected. He’s like a basketball Bo Jackson: fast as a bullet, and we’ll regale future generations on what it was like when Russ sucked the air out of buildings with both the rim atomizing dunks and the ill-fated threes.
But…from his time triple-doubling while Kevin Durant was out, to today’s Durant-less squad, it’s becoming clearer by the day, that Russell Westbrook has HIS way of doing things, and if they don’t jibe with YOUR way, you might could go to hell.
This has got me a little worried about what’s going on in Oklahoma City.
Nah seriously, I’m going to write about this.
@thad039: “Can I get your rank on the top five sitcoms of all time?”
Ooooh.
Man, you’re gonna get me killed. Okay, here we go.
Presented without commentary, no particular order:
Fresh Prince of Bel-Air
Golden Girls
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Office
Married With Children
Honorable Mentions: Martin, Night Court, Futurama, It’s Always Sunny.
I’d put Atlanta up there in my top five, but it’s too dope to be “just” a sitcom.
@megalutou: “what seed will the Kings make the playoffs at?”
Have a seat. I have some bad news for you….
Thanks to everyone who sent questions, we’ll do it again soon, for realsies this time. What did I get wrong? Want to yell at me? Leave a comment below, or find me on
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