Will new surroundings unlock Victor Oladipo’s potential? (Photo: Anthony Gruppuso – USA TODAY Sports)
Victor Oladipo, Oklahoma City Thunder
By James Holas
Follow @SnottieDrippen
“Year three is a pivotal time in the development of an NBA player. The rookie year is all about adjusting to the speed and physicality of the NBA, and year two is about locking in proper habits and maturing. From year three on, the player’s upward arc should be clear.” ~ Me, August 13, in last year’s Breakout Players post
What happens to potential deferred? Does it wait patiently for its turn to run? Or does it dry up and sit at the end of the bench for the Suns? The words above, I wrote last year about none other than Victor Oladipo. Going into year three, with new coach Scott Skiles, things seemed bright for the Magic and Oladipo.
Welp.
Fast forward 13 months, Skiles is gone, Oladipo is now in Oklahoma, and we’re still not quite sure what to make of the athletic attacking combo guard. His minutes and scoring were down, his production inconsistent, and the Magic in general were a mess. For every 45-point, five-rebound performance (like he posted in a six-point loss to the Cavs) there were a handful (12, to be exact) of single digit, low efficiency, forgettable stinkers. How could the same guy hang 37 on OKC, but toss up a 37 minute, five point clunker against the Grizzlies?
It’s tough to differentiate how much fault goes to his organization (since drafting Oladipo three years ago, the Magic have continuously tried to cut corners and “quick fix” their way back into the playoffs) and how much goes to Oladipo simply not being who many thought he was when he was drafted number 2 overall.
As he enters year four, this season should go a long way in defining the 6-foot-4 swingman. While Oladipo isn’t an ideal fit alongside Russell Westbrook, the duo will have speed, bounce, and versatility unlike any other backcourt in the league. What Westbrook and Oladipo lack in shooting (and they will lack: last year, none of the notable PG-SG combos shot so few threes at such a low percentage as Westbrook and Oladipo’s combined numbers), they project to make up for it by doing everything else at a high level. Dipo isn’t the prolific scorer that the elite shooting guards are, but he’s proven himself a capable playmaker, a solid rebounder, and possesses the physical tools to be a top flight defender.
Last year, almost 1/4th of Oladipo’s shots (23 percent) were from the dreaded “long two” zone, from 16 feet out to the three-point line, while his attempts at the rim tumbled from over 42 percent of his attempts in 2015 to less than 30 percent. To reach his potential in Oklahoma City, it would behoove him to tweak his shot selection, a la DeMar DeRozan.
In the three seasons prior to last year, DeRozan languished in Long Two land, with almost 36 percent of his attempts from the floor coming from 16 feet to the three point line, eve4n though he shot a “not terrible” 39.1 percent. Last year, DDR cut that number to 24.7 percent while raising his attempts at the rim from 18 percent to almost 23 percent. The result? A career-high free throw rate, the second best True Shooting Percentage of his career, and a shiny new $139 million dollar contract.
Oladipo’s shooting profile won’t require such a dramatic shift; even if he just turns down half of those long twos for threes (where he shot 34.8 percent last year, almost league average) and rim attacks, he’ll make himself that much more effective.
At just 24 years old, joining a team that just lsaw 30 points per game hotfoot it out to the Bay area but that still has realistic playoff expectations, Oladipo will have ample minutes and opportunity to finally make his mark. We know Russell Westbrook will put the Thunder on his back; exactly how what heights OKC reach depends largely on everything coming together for Victor Oladipo.
(All stats via BasketballReference.com)
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
By Bryan Toporek
Follow @btoporek
Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis dominated the headlines among rookie big men last year, but don’t sleep on Myles Turner as one of the best big men in the 2015 draft class. With Ian Mahinmi no longer holding down the starting 5 spot in Indiana, Turner is poised to erupt this season and make himself known on a national stage.
A fractured left thumb knocked the Texas product out for six weeks early last season, threatening to undo his rookie campaign before it ever truly lifted off. Instead, Turner forced his way into the Pacers’ starting lineup within a month of his return, averaging 15.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in just 29.6 minutes per night over an 18-game stretch from mid-January through late February. Though he cooled off considerably in the weeks after the All-Star break, a 24-point, 16-rebound, three-block outing against the Anthony Davis-less New Orleans Pelicans in late March provided a glimpse of Indiana’s future.
Pacers team president Larry Bird has spent the past year-and-a-half openly advocating for his team to adopt a small-ball, pace-and-space offensive philosophy, and Turner’s presence on the roster may enable Indiana to do just that. Though the Pacers signed Al Jefferson in free agency, they figure to open the season with the newly acquired Thaddeus Young at the 4 and Turner at the 5. This past year, the rookie big man was far more effective as a center than as a power forward, averaging 17.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes at the 5 versus 14.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks at the 4, per Nylon Calculus.
Turner attempted only 14 three-pointers as a rookie (hitting three), but he knocked down 17 of his 62 attempts from beyond the arc during his lone season at Texas, which suggests perimeter shooting could eventually become an asset for him. He was surprisingly effective on long-range two-pointers in 2015-16, going 93-of-220 (42.5 percent) on shots that were at least 16 feet away from the basket but inside of the three-point arc. More than 36 percent of his field-goal attempts came from that range last season, suggesting the Pacers are already comfortable having him let fly from the mid-range.
The scary thing is, Turner is just now realizing how imposing of a presence he could eventually become.
“I can see myself being a very dominant player in this league one day – and one day soon,” Turner told Basketball Insiders’ Alex Kennedy in August. “I mean, I don’t know what my ceiling is. With my work ethic and my drive, I feel like there is no ceiling.”
When setting goals for this season, he told Kennedy he’d like to “put up 15 to 20 points per game,” adding, “That may seem like a long shot, but I feel like I’m very capable.” He’ll be competing with Young, Paul George, Jeff Teague and Monta Ellis for a majority of his offensive touches, but seeing as he averaged 10.3 points a night as a rookie, a jump to the 15-points-per-game range isn’t entirely unfathomable. In the meantime, the Pacers will rely on him as an imposing defensive presence around the rim, particularly after he blocked 3.3 shots per game in their first-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks this past spring.
Turner turned heads this summer at Team USA camp during his time with the Select Team, as George told Nate Taylor of the Indianapolis Star: “He’s got the respect. He’s earned it from the veterans and he’s going to be good. He loves to work, and, to be honest, I was happy to be there with him.” George added that Turner is “one of the best up-and-coming talents in the league.” Though those outside of Indianapolis might not yet realize it, Towns and Porzingis aren’t the only two big men from the 2015 draft class with All-Star upside. Turner will make that readily apparent in 2016-17.
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
By Adam Joseph
Follow @AdamJosephSport
An NBA Player’s trajectory is never the same from one to another, depending on how a rookie adjusts physically, to how they adapt to and endure all the different challenges the league throws at them. Once that is achieved, focus turns to making their own mark on the NBA.
Rodney Hood has certainly enjoyed a relatively smooth transition to the league, despite speed bumps which saw him miss 32 games in his rookie campaign. He took his next step forward in his second season, and the sophomore slump was not an issue for the former Duke guard.
His 14.5 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game were steady increases across the board, and despite increases in volume his efficiency did not suffer. The Utah Jazz were crippled by injuries, and Hood’s increase in responsibility saw him respond well to their adversity, particularly with Alec Burks sidelined the majority of the season.
The Jazz were then aggressive in the market this offseason, adding Point Guard George Hill as the bridge to Dante Exum’s future, veteran swingman Joe Johnson and uniquely talented big Boris Diaw.
Salt Lake City’s franchise is ready to take the next leap into the upper echelon of the Western Conference, with Hood as a focal point of the team. Last season only Rudy Gobert had a better on/off court rating than Hood’s.
How much of his trajectory continues to rise will be a crucial factor to their success. The Jazz are already an incredible defensive squad, and will be even better if Gobert stays fully healthy. Their seventh placed defensive efficiency is all the more impressive considering their French stifle tower and key to their system missed 21 games.
It’s that offensive improvement that is pivotal to the Jazz’s overall improvement. Their middle of the range offense needs to take a leap for them to compete with the likes of the Warriors and Clippers in the West. Combined with the team’s ability to control tempo, their offensive ceiling is the key.
Through the second half of the season, Hood posted 16 points per game, hitting 39 percent of his threes. If he can continue to build on this improvement, he can move towards season numbers mirroring the 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists he averaged in January.
The Jazz will have a deeper rotation and Hood’s minutes should stay around the 32.2 mark of last season, but if his efficiency and development make marked improvements he will be more than just a complimentary piece to the very nice roster that is being put together around him.
His development on the defensive end should also continue under Head Coach Quin Snyder, who is the man responsible for the Jazz’s mean team defense. Gordon Hayward might be the next expected All Star to come from Salt Lake City, but Hood has the ability to rival him for that title with a few key pieces of growth.
Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
By Vivek Jacob
Follow @vivekmjacob
The Oklahoma City Thunder season will hinge on two players, Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams. While Oladipo is still a bit of a question mark in unfamiliar surroundings, Adams is firmly poised to break out.
Affectionately known to his teammates as a “Big Kiwi,” he gave us a peek into his full capabilities through the course of the 2016 postseason, averaging 10.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game on 61 percent shooting from the field. Throw in that dunk in Draymond Green’s grill after getting kicked in the nether regions and it’s hard not to buy into the hype.
The most impressive part of his 10.5-point scoring average in the playoffs was that he did it with just over six field goal attempts per game. There’s no doubt that total will rise this season with around 28 shots a night for the taking after the departures of Kevin Durant and Dion Waiters.
The Westbrook-Adams pick-and-roll was a thing of beauty last season with Westbrook’s improved decision-making making good use of Adams’ underrated athleticism. I expect much more of not only that next season, but a higher usage ofAdams in the post as well. He’s a deft finisher around the rim with a consistent jump hook and a sneaky drop step move if the defender gets a little too close.
As a resident of Toronto enamored by the way Bismack Biyombo stayed in front of both guards and the likes of Paul George and LeBron James, I was intrigued watching Adams hold his own when left on an island against the Splash Brothers after pushing Tim Duncan into retirement was just as impressive. I think a lot of it starts with his high self-confidence and sense of self that leaves him unabashed by any level of embarrassment.
He should be good for a double-double average this season, and the closer he gets to that 15 points per game threshold, the better the Thunder’s chances are of finishing higher than many expect. Off the court, he should combine with Westbrook for the most entertaining interviews as well.
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