The Orlando Magic currently find themselves immersed in the most precarious portion of any rebuild.
Since moving on from Dwight Howard in August 2012, the Magic have amassed a promising young core through trades (Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier) and the draft (Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja). Though they hit a rough patch in January, going just 2-12 throughout the month, they entered the new year with a promising 19-13 record, suggesting they aren’t all that far away from playoff contention.
The question is, which of those young players will help bring Orlando back to the promised land of the postseason?
In an interview with Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel last month, Orlando general manager Rob Hennigan highlighted his team’s youth as a possible culprit for its collapse following its 19-13 start:
We’re extremely young. We believe in our young players and we’re embracing our youth. If anything, we might be too young at times, which obviously produces inconsistent play. …The six players playing the most minutes for us have an average age of 22.5. So that’s basically a college team, and we’re asking and expecting our guys to learn how to consistently win NBA games collectively while, at the same time, they’re all learning the ropes of the NBA individually. And that’s a lot to ask.
When asked how the team plans on approaching the trade deadline, Hennigan replied, “If something makes sense for us, we’ll be aggressive. But it needs to make sense for both the long and short terms. So we’ll stay equally as disciplined in our decision-making as we are active in our discussions.”
According to ESPN.com’s Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst, Orlando is among the teams that “have been the most aggressive in looking to acquire a veteran difference-maker,” along with the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics. Basketball Insiders’ Steve Kyler reported the Magic are “swinging for the fences,” adding they “have kept no secret that they are looking for a major trade.”
The Magic began that process Tuesday, sending Harris to the Detroit Pistons in exchange for Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings. In a statement posted on the team’s website, Orlando general manager Rob Hennigan said, “Brandon (Jennings) and Ersan (Ilyasova) are two veterans that will help balance our roster and provide valuable experience to our team. Both players bring scoring, competitiveness and added depth to our roster.”
What remains to be seen is whether the Harris deal is the precursor to a larger set of moves between now and the trade deadline or if this was the main attraction.
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The Logic Behind Moving Harris
Seeing as the Magic just re-signed Harris to a four-year, $64 million deal this past summer, their decision to trade him for Ilyasova and Jennings caught many off-guard Tuesday. Those paying close attention to rumblings in recent weeks, however, shouldn’t have been surprised by his availability.
Harris is a perfectly fine player, although he’s perhaps miscast as a primary offensive weapon. His per-game scoring average has regressed significantly, dropping from 17.1 to 13.7 points, and his three-point accuracy has likewise taken a nosedive, going from 36.4 to 31.1 percent. The Tennessee product doesn’t turn 24 until July, so it’s still far too early to rule out him ever evolving into a No. 1 option on offense, but his long-range shooting regression didn’t exactly bode well for a Magic team in desperate need of perimeter snipers.
Here’s the other problem: According to data from Nylon Calculus’ Seth Partnow, Harris averages more points, rebounds and assists per 36 minutes while playing power forward rather than small forward. Gordon, who the Magic selected fourth overall in 2014, also happens to play power forward. Much like Harris, Gordon is a streaky long-range shooter, but he’s a far superior defender.
Ultimately, the Magic were forced to decide which of the two players to build around at the 4, as Hezonja projects as their small forward of the future. They rightly chose Gordon, who’s under team control through 2017-18 on a relatively affordable rookie deal. Though the structure of Harris’ new contract was unique—he’s set to jump from $16 million this season to $17.2 million in 2016-17 (when the salary cap will jump to roughly $90 million) before his salary then decreases by $1.2 million in each of the following two seasons—there’s not much sense in sinking that much money into a sixth man.
That said, the return for a 23-year-old on a reasonable multiyear contract was hardly ideal. The Magic should have pushed to receive at least one young prospect or future first-round pick in the deal, as both Jennings and Ilyasova could come off Orlando’s books in July, leaving them empty-handed in terms of long-term assets. Depending on where the salary cap falls—on Tuesday, ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe reported teams are now using an estimate of $92 million—the Magic could now have upwards of $40 million in cap space after moving Harris, according to Lowe. Until we see how they make use of that space, though, the deal is a head-scratcher.
The Backcourt Glut
With the Harris situation resolved, Orlando must now determine whether Oladipo and Payton can co-exist long term.
Of the Magic’s 40 two-man combos that have played at least 200 minutes together, the Payton-Oladipo duo ranks 39th with a net rating of minus-7.9. Orlando averages just 98.3 points per 100 possessions with that pairing on the court, which would be the league’s third-worst mark. Since neither player is a knockdown shooter from beyond the arc—Payton has hit 36.2 percent of the 58 triples he’s attempted this season, while Oladipo is 65-of-188 from downtown (34.6 percent)—opponents aren’t afraid to clog the paint and dare the Magic’s young backcourt to fire away on treys.
Orlando head coach Scott Skiles temporarily shifted Oladipo to the bench to combat that spacing issue, which Payton supported at the time. In January, the Louisiana-Lafayette product told Lowe that Channing Frye’s insertion in the starting lineup forced opponents to “stay home” because they “respect his three-ball,” which “opens up the paint a lot for someone like me.”
Despite the spacing issues, Orlando appeared unwilling to move on from the Oladipo-Payton pairing earlier this season. In January, Kyler reported Oladipo was “really is not” obtainable in a trade, adding, “It would take a monster of a transaction to get Orlando to even seriously talk about it.”
After their dismal January, it appears as though the Magic have changed their tone. On Feb. 4, Kyler wrote, “The Magic, for most of December, were turning away offers on their roster. But over the last three weeks sources close to the situation say that trade conversations have taken a turn and there is an increasing sense that this roster as constructed may require significant change.”
Citing a league source, Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reported on Feb. 9 that the Magic had discussed a deal with the Atlanta Hawks involving Oladipo and point guard Jeff Teague. Kyler corroborated that report the following day, sharing additional details about the team’s approach leading up to the deadline:
Magic sources were pretty adamant yesterday that all the team is doing at this point is weighing their options and being aggressive in seeing what they could make happen, trying to defuse the notion the team was trying to sell off the roster. It was made very clear that the only way Orlando deals players it feels are core guys is if they get a proven All-Star type player in return, which is what it seems the Magic are looking for at the deadline.
As for Fournier, who is set to become a restricted free agent this summer, Kyler wrote in January the Magic were “not sold that keeping Fournier at an inflated price tag is the best use” of their cap space. They could wait for him to sign an offer sheet with another team, effectively letting the market establish his price tag, but doing so runs the risk of losing him for nothing.
SB Nation’s Tom Ziller suggested Fournier “would seem to be the odd man out” in Orlando’s backcourt, “perhaps because everyone else has a higher ceiling.” He is by far the team’s leading three-point shooter, having knocked down 101 triples through the All-Star break, but if the Magic have no intention of re-signing him this summer, they’d be wise to shop him before Thursday’s deadline.
The Rest
Since Oladipo, Payton, Fournier, Gordon and Hezonja remain on their rookie contracts, the Magic will have a difficult time extracting equal value in return for any of them. The same is true for Andrew Nicholson, who is set to become a restricted free agent this summer, and Shabazz Napier, who is locked up under team control through 2016-17.
The few veterans on Orlando’s roster, meanwhile, could be more easily moved.
The Magic have already received “multiple inquires on Frye, per Sean Deveney of Sporting News, “who despite being 32 years old and having two years and $15.2 million left on his contract, still is considered a commodity around the league because of his combination of size, defense and perimeter shooting.”
Frye started every game for Orlando from Nov. 25 through Jan. 20, but he averaged just 5.2 points on 42.6 percent shooting, 3.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.1 triples in 19.6 minutes a night over that stretch. He did knock down 40.0 percent of his three-point looks while in the starting lineup, providing the much-needed floor spacing Payton alluded to when speaking with Lowe, but his otherwise paltry contributions couldn’t justify his place in the starting lineup any longer. Since moving to the bench, his per-game averages and playing time have plummeted, as Skiles moves more toward a youth-centric rotation with the hopes of a playoff spot rapidly fading.
According to The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Los Angeles Clippers neared an agreement with Orlando on Tuesday for Frye, although they are “holding back” on finalizing the deal until Wednesday. If it does go through, Orlando would receive C.J. Wilcox, Lance Stephenson and perhaps a future second-round pick, he reported. Meanwhile, if the Clippers deal falls apart, “Frye remains a significant target for several teams, including the Cleveland Cavaliers,” Woj added.
Frye’s contract is structured similarly to Harris’, in that it dips slightly over each of the next two seasons. While most teams won’t be in a significant crunch given the impending cap jumps, every little bit of financial flexibility helps when negotiating extensions for incumbent players or new contracts with free agents. Ilyasova also effectively replicates Frye’s skill set, particularly on offense, making him even more expendable for Orlando.
Jason Smith, who earned a nod on this year’s edition of Lowe’s “Luke Walton All-Stars” squad, could also draw some interest from teams in need of a reserve big man. The 29-year-old would likely be a half-season rental, as his $4.3 million contract expires at the end of the year, but he’s a competent rim defender and is knocking down a preposterous number of his mid-range looks. Then again, the Magic may prefer to keep Smith around for that very reason.
“We need those shots that he can make and his shot-making is very important to us,” Skiles told John Denton of the Magic’s team website in reference to Smith. “Most of the time this year he’s coming into the game for [Vucevic] and that [shooting] is something that he does as well, so we don’t lose a lot with Jason in the game.”
Orlando may struggle finding a taker for point guard C.J. Watson, who has appeared in just eight games this year due to calf and knee injuries. His $5 million salary is guaranteed in 2016-17, which isn’t likely to entice many suitors. The Magic may be better off trading away one of their younger guards in a major shakeup and plugging Watson back in as a reserve once he’s healthy enough to return.
If the Magic aren’t yet done maneuvering after dealing Harris, Frye is a virtual lock to be moved, while Oladipo could also find himself in the trade crosshairs. At this point, Gordon and Hezonja should be the only two Orlando players considered all but untouchable.
All statistics via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com/stats and are current through the All-Star break. All salary info via Spotrac.com.
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