Over the coming weeks, the BBALLBREAKDOWN team will be taking looks at five important questions each NBA team will be facing going into the upcoming offseason, continuing here with the Philadelphia 76ers.
1. How Will Nerlens Noel Progress During His Sophomore Year?
As the first major puzzle piece in General Manager Sam Hinkie’s controversial journey towards building the Philadelphia 76ers into a title contender, it would seem that Nerlens Noel would have a large amount of pressure placed on his shoulders. But missing the 2013-14 season and what would have been his rookie campaign due to injury ultimately deflected that pressure elsewhere.
That fate would ultimately be terrific for Noel, as he had the opportunity to use the 2014-15 season to both become accustomed to the pace of the NBA and to progress as a young player. While Noel is seen as one of the biggest faces of Philadelphia’s rebuilding process, he entered the season as an extremely raw talent that only played 23 games above the high-school level.
With Noel beginning his rookie season inside one of the most talent-barren teams in recent memory, it shouldn’t be surprising to think that he would have had his struggles. Inside a 76ers team that placed undrafted forwards Henry Sims and Brandon Davies next to him, Noel started his NBA career as a young rookie without any real front-court help. That lack of assistance put Noel at a significant disadvantage, especially from the offensive end.
During that first half of the season, Noel was given the opportunity to play alongside Michael Carter-Williams. Yet while MCW appeared to be a good distributor based on him averaging 7.4 assists per game, which would have put him in the top-10 in the entire NBA, his chemistry with Noel never really materialized. Despite MCW’s reputation as a solid facilitator, he seemed to be more comfortable with constantly working on the ball, rather than working it around to his teammates. Carter-Williams lead the league in touches while being in the top-20 in USG% during that first half stint with Philly, overly ball-dominant on a team that struggled for offense.
Although Noel seemingly had solid off-court chemistry with Carter-Williams, the rookie center had moments where he was frustrated with the team’s lack of ball movement. For example, Noel stated the following to CSNPhilly after a mid-January loss to Washington:
We have to be able to reward our big guys. We have to move the ball. We were stagnant [offensively] again. Sustaining energy like that isn’t an easy thing especially when the big guys aren’t involved.
That stagnant nature lead to Noel averaging only 8.5 points per game on 44% shooting during MCW’s time at the helm. Things, however, improved after he left.
After Carter-Williams was shipped off to Milwaukee in a trade deadline deal, the 76ers brought in journeyman point guard Ish Smith. While he was initially looked at as a brief stopgap that the team would put behind rookie Isaiah Canaan, Smith was able to quickly overtake the youngster by how quickly he transitioned himself into the role as Philadelphia’s main facilitator. In that role, Smith also developed an instant chemistry with Noel, which has lead to Noel making some drastic offensive improvements.
With Smith, Philadelphia finally has a pass-first guard that can seemingly cut to the paint whenever he desires. The style forces the bigs to focus their attention on Smith, which ultimately sets Noel up with easy looks from around the rim. That fact is evident by Noel shooting 65% from inside the restricted area since Smith’s arrival, an 8% improvement from his run with Carter-Williams.
Other ways that Smith helped improve Noel’s work on offense were through the pick-and-roll and in transition. With Smith’s pass-first mentality combined with the threat of him being able to cut to the rim whenever he wants, a lot of open opportunities opened up for Noel when either running to the court or when slipping to the basket, and those opportunities led to a bevy of alley-oop connections. Of Noel’s 42 alley-oops during his rookie season, 22 of those came from the assistance of Ish Smith. To put that in perspective, Carter-Williams only had six alley-oop connections during his time with the team.
The combination of all of those traits has helped Noel become a more efficient offensive weapon in basically every statistical category.
Nerlens Noel Pre-and-Post All-Star Break | Create infographics
Noel’s development as an offensive player now largely hinges on a single thing: a reliable jump shot. However, while he didn’t make any sort of improvements from a statistical perspective (25% on jumpers in the second half of the season compared to 30% during the first half), Noel nevertheless is still said to have made strides. In an interview with Sixers.com’s Max Rappaport in late February, coach Brett Brown stated the following about Noel’s jump shot and foul stroke:
Even when he misses, you see him, he looks so confident stepping to the line and receiving a ball from a referee. He’s got his routine, he’s got his whole system in place, and he steps up with tremendous confidence… And then to see a little bit of carryover that we thought was going to happen to his 18-foot shot, with his form and his confidence, we’re seeing the early days, the early stages of him growing his game. And it’s going to help him compliment Joel Embiid, and it’s going to help him in general.
Despite all of those offensive progressions, Noel’s main value still comes from his work on the defensive end. Noel is that rare breed of big men who are almost as good stepping out of the paint and squaring off against ball-handlers as they are working inside the paint. Per Synergy Sports, opponents averaged .792 points per possession against Noel while working in the pick-and-roll, which is impressive since he took on that role more than seven times per night.
That versatility helped Noel average 1.9 blocks and 1.8 steals per game, totals of 142 and 133 respectively, putting him in the 100 block, 100 steal club. Noel joins Andrei Kirilenko, Alvan Adams, Terry Tyler and David Robinson as the only players to have accomplished that goal as a rookie. Noah showed a tremendous amount of instincts on interior defense, especially when considering how young and inexperienced he is. From game one, Noel exhibited himself as a noted inside presence, which is huge for a team that’s looking for some kind of identity. Noel’s role as a defensive force for Philly is evident in two different ways.
1: After the All-Star break, opponents averaged only 99.2 points per 100 possessions when Noel on the court, compared to 104.7 points per 100 when he’s on the sidelines.
2: When they were working inside the paint against Noel, opponents shot a far-below-average 51%, the forth lowest total in the entire NBA.
With Noel seemingly progressing on a monthly basis on both ends of the court, then, both the 76ers organization and their fans have a lot to be excited about. While he’s still a huge ball of clay that needs to be molded, especially on the offensive end, Noel has at least showcased an ability to be one of the best defensive big men in the entire NBA.
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2. How Are Joel Embiid And Dario Saric Doing?
In the 2014 NBA Draft, Hinkie and the 76ers franchise basically threw a middle finger at by selecting Kansas big Joel Embiid and European stud Dario Saric in the first round. Both players excelled in their respective leagues, but there was an issue; neither Saric or Embiid had any hopes of playing in the NBA during the 2014-15.
For Embiid, the 7-foot stud suffered a stress fracture in the navicular bone in his right foot, and although there remained some hope that he could suit up for the team towards the end of the season, he suffered a minor setback in mid-March which pretty much sealed his fate. Still untested at the NBA level, Embiid’s fit alongside Noel remains a concern; despite the positive outlook in Brown’s quote above, Embiid is too important of a player to take it too lightly. As for Saric, the wait to see him suit up for the 76ers might last for another season or two. Saric’s deal with Turkish side Anadolu Efes doesn’t have an NBA out built in during his first two seasons, and thus Philadelphia might have to realistically wait until the 2016-17 season for him to be able to actually suit up for the Sixers.
Nevertheless, Saric has been able to display the skills that helped lead Philadelphia towards using their second lotto pick on him. Playing in the vaunted Euroleague, Saric showed off a bevy of offensive skills. For a 6’10 forward, Saric sits as a pretty solid facilitator, which should work well on a Brett Brown system that relies heavily on crisp passes, and has demonstrated the versatility and ability to play all over the court.
Alongside those crisp passes, Saric has the potential to be an ideal pick-and-roll threat. He displays an incredibly smooth shooting stroke, as shown in the following video from Liberty Ballers’ Shamus Clancy.
While that aspect of the game is still a work in progress (Saric shot only 31% from the perimeter this year), refining that singular skill could eventually lead to Saric creating a potentially dangerous inside-outside presence with either Embiid or Noel.
3: Which Players On The Roster Could Stick Around In 2015-16?
Perhaps the biggest complaint about the Sixers in the Hinkie era has been the team’s utilization of players that otherwise might not be in the NBA. As a point of reference, of the Sixers roster that they trotted out during the final game of the season, six players were undrafted, and this does not include the great many players they have tried out over the last few years who did not stick. But on the plus side, the 76ers were able to find some diamonds in that rough of unwanted talent.
The most pertinent example of this might be former Houston Rockets draftee and D-League superstar Robert Covington. Acquiring Covington in early November, it took him awhile to establish himself into the team’s rotation, but once he did, there really was no looking back.
Since taking the reigns as the team’s starting combo forward in mid December, he quickly established himself as one of the team’s main perimeter threats. Shooting more than six three-point shots per game, Covington maintained a respectable 38% from beyond the arc, an that perimeter ability had a positive influence on the Sixers’ offense. Per 100 possessions, Philly put up 96.2 points when Covington was on the court, compared to only 90 points when he was on the sidelines. While that improvement wouldn’t take away from the 76ers still being the worst offense (per-100 possession wise) in the NBA, it still marks the kind of impact that his perimeter prowess and floor spacing has had.
Another perimeter shooter that has made a positive factor on the 76ers has been Hollis Thompson. Like Covington, the 76ers picked Thompson up from the NBA bargain bin after he spent a single season in the D-League with the Tulsa 66ers (D-League affiliate of the Oklahoma City Thunder). From day one, Thompson seemed to latch onto a role as the team’s main 3-and-D forward, as he shot 40% from beyond the arc during his rookie season.
Thompson was able to maintain that level of consistency into the 2014-15 season as he, yet again, shot 40% from beyond the arc. However, a lot of Thompson’s value also comes from his versatility as a defender. Sitting at 6’9, Thompson has the ability to guard multiple positions, as he can go to the perimeter and defend guards, while occasionally being able to work inside the paint against front-court players. As per Synergy, opponents averaged only .70 PPP while working in the pick-and-roll against Thompson, a below-average number.
Aside from Thompson and Covington, unheralded players like Smith and Canaan have been able to make some sort of impact. In the section on Noel, we looked thoroughly on how Ish’s skills as a facilitator has been a tremendous help for the young center. However, the journeyman guard has been able to share the wealth with other teammates, as evidenced by the picture below:
Philly’s other mid-season acquisition, Canaan, is basically a 180 degree shift away Smith, despite playing at the same position. Since his time at Murray State where he became known to routinely be absolutely on fire from the perimeter (shooting 42% from three during his four-year college career), Canaan has been the definition of a score-first guard in the body of a 6’1 point guard. After spending his first year-and-a-half hiding in the depths of Houston’s guard filled roster, Canaan moved over to the 76ers where he was given an immediate opportunity to showcase his skills.
Canaan’s score-first mentality didn’t quite fit into the way that Brett Brown wanted his starting rotation to look. Luckily for Canaan, though, his scoring knack unsurprisingly fit in very well into the sixth man role. In the same mold as a lot of score-first guards, Canaan’s main goal when he’s on the court is to shoot perimeter jumpers when he touches the ball. Actually, since making his way to the Sixers roster after the trade deadline, Canaan has shot the second-most three-pointers per game (7.4) in the entire NBA, behind only Golden State Warriors great and league MVP Stephen Curry (8.4 3-point attempts). That fact becomes more unbelievable when you look at how Canaan (26 MPG) averaged six less minutes than Curry (32 MPG).
With the exception of possibly Covington, neither of these players would ideally be a part of the 76ers’ future starting lineup. But with that in mind, Thompson, Canaan and Smith could definitely remain fixtures of the team’s rotation as their rebuilding process continues to progress. While that may not sound like much, it’s a pretty solid deal when considering that, among the quartet, Covington is the most costly player at just over a million per season.
4: Where Will They Go During the Draft?
As seen above, the Sixers have been able to shrewdly round out their rotation with a handful of solid, cost-efficient options. However, as has been the case since George Mikan and Bob Petit, an NBA team needs a superstar or at least a handful of solid building blocks to go from a cellar dweller to a playoff hopeful. Although the path Philly has taken towards acquiring those building blocks has been a bit controversial, they’ve done a good job of acquiring the best high-upside talent in Embiid and Noel.
With the future of the front-court seemingly etched in stone with those two, and perhaps with Saric, the team will surely use their upcoming top five draft pick to address their glaring hole in the back court. (With all due respect to Smith, there is one.) Among the lottery-bound prospects, point guards D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay are the most likely candidates that can help fill in that huge hole.
In the same draft class that consists of Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, it might seem weird to say that Russell would be the most eye-catching prospect in this year’s draft. However, when further examining his game, it can be seen how the 19-year-old prospect has a better knack for the game than some NBA vets.
Standing at 6’5, Russell is able to use his advantage as both a scorer and facilitator. As a facilitator, Russell is able to see over the defense and find potential scorers in a way that other guards aren’t able to do. Russell does a great job of using that trait to his advantage as he always seems to be one step ahead in terms of being able to find cutters or open perimeter teammates. That skill makes him into an absolutely deadly pick-and-roll weapon, especially when he’s working alongside mobile bigs.
Another way that Russell is a huge threat in the pick-and-roll is in his ability to seemingly cut to the rim whenever he desires. Although he isn’t the most explosive player, Russell possibly has the best handle in the draft, as he seemingly work magic whenever he has the ball. That ability is most apparent through pick-and-rolls, as Russell can change speeds with ease and has a crop of hesitation moves which can shake his opponent out of his shoes. Once he gets to the paint, he’s extremely effective, shooting 62% at the rim according to hoop-math.com.
An aspect of Russell’s game that has continued to improve as been his ability to shoot the perimeter jumper. After struggling from beyond the arc through much of his high school career, Russell made some drastic improvements once he landed in Ohio State. On 6.6 three point attempts per game, Russell shot 41% from beyond the arc, which exceeds notable perimeter threats like UNLV’s Rashad Vaughn, Murray State’s Cameron Payne and Oregon’s Joseph Young.
Transitioning over to Mudiay, the young 6’6 guard has been able to stay in the NBA Draft spotlight despite spending the season over in China. Mudiay was able to accomplish that task by being one of the better players in the Chinese Basketball Association, a league that features a slew of former NBA players. With the Guangdong Southern Tigers, Mudiay averaged 18 points, 6 assists and 6 rebounds per game in 12 games.
In a similar way to Russell and former Sixers point guard Carter-Williams, a lot of Mudiay’s appeal would be his work as a long, lanky point guard. Like that duo, Mudiay is able to see over the defense, which allows him to make some key reads as a facilitator. For a 19-year-old talent playing against a crop of former NBA players that are in their late-20’s or early-30’s, Mudiay has an impressive feel for the game, especially when he’s working in the pick-and-roll. In that system, Mudiay basically works as the screener’s best friend, as he does a nice job of hitting his teammates with pocket passes, lobs or working it back to perimeter-positioned teammates.
While still working in the pick-and-roll, Mudiay displays his elite explosiveness, as he can seemingly work past any opponent in a blink of an eye. Once he works past the initial opponent, he can use his passing instincts to work it to a teammate stationed out on the perimeter or take it to the rim, where he’s a huge threat because of his long frame. While he’s not the best shooter, he can still keep the defender honest as he can hit the occasional mid-range pull up jumper. However, the one huge area of weakness for Mudiay would be his inconsistent perimeter jumper. He seems to be really uncomfortable with taking a jumper, whether it would be catch-and-shoot or off the dribble, which ultimately leads to his inconsistency. That inconsistency is backed up by Mudiay shooting a lackluster 31% from beyond the arc.
In the case of the 76ers, both Mudiay and Russell would make for solid pick-ups for a handful of different reasons. Perhaps the biggest reason is how both players seemingly have an amazing feel on how to run an offense. Both Mudiay and Russell are excellent when it comes to facilitating through the pick-and-roll, especially when it comes to working off of the screener. With Embiid and Noel being such a vital part of the team’s future, the pairing of them with Russell or Mudiay could therefore create some super exciting moments for years to come.
The Sixers might give the edge to Russell for one reason: his perimeter jumper. As has been a theme throughout this piece, Philly really lacks much in the way of perimeter weapons, shooting 32% as a team from three point range. While he’ll probably work primarily as the team’s main point guard and facilitator, Russell’s size and perimeter acumen could allow him as an off-ball guard with a player like Ish Smith working at the point.
Besides that top five pick, Philadelphia has a small chance to grab other high first-round picks from the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat. In the three-way mid-season deal that shipped Carter-Williams off to Milwaukee, the team acquired the Lakers pick that is top-5 protected for this year’s draft, but because of the Lakers’ continued misfortunes, they finished as the fourth worst team in the NBA. As 76ers writer and draft guru Derek Bodner explains here, the Sixers have a 17% chance of getting the Lakers pick.
Also, the team acquired a top-10 protected Heat pick in the Thaddeus Young deal from the 2014 off-season. But while it looked like that pick was definitely going to Philly for the majority of the season, Miami’s sudden losing streak down the stretch of the regular season combined with the climbs of the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets lead to them landing in the middle of the lottery. Per Bodner’s calculations, Philly only has a 9% chance of acquiring that pick in 2015.
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5: What’s Sam Hinkie’s Plan?
In respect to the Embiids, Noels and future lottery picks of the world, the work of Hinkie is probably the most discussed topic when it comes to the 76ers. From his introductory press conference until now, his approach of basically tearing a franchise down and slowly acquiring both low-risk assets (draft picks and D-League players) and top-notch prospects has been done in the hopes that the prospects can potentially turn into studs, or that the assets could lead to a superstar player. While the second part of that has seemingly been forgotten, Hinkie brought up his aspirations of acquiring a superstar talent to Pablo Torre in an ESPN piece from February:
And Hinkie, as if to underscore that divergence, walked into dinner carrying a laptop, complete with a massively detailed PowerPoint presentation that Sixers executives now recall as an “investment thesis.” Its centerpiece was a diagram that illustrated, arrow by arrow, transaction by transaction, how Houston had amassed the assets — two first-rounders and a second-rounder, along with guards Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb — to acquire superstar guard James Harden from the Thunder in October … a month after the Sixers had hired DiLeo. Hinkie’s abstract vision for artfully delayed NBA production suddenly felt concrete.
Although Hinkie wasn’t directing the shots in the moves that ultimately lead to Houston acquiring James Harden, he presumably sat besides Daryl Morey as the process occurred.
Since making his way to Philadelphia during the 2013 off-season, Hinkie has acquired a massive load of both first and second round draft picks. From now until 2020, Philadelphia is in possession of eight firsts and twelve seconds. While it’s to be expected that some of those picks could turn into solid players, it’s probably not to be expected that he’s going to use all 20 draft picks during the next five years.
So what path will Hinkie and the Sixers ultimately go if they don’t want to use every one of those twenty draft picks? Well, they could eventually use any potent combination of those assets to trade for a superstar talent. While that might not occur during the upcoming off-season, or even in 2016, Hinkie might eventually have to take that risk if he wants to turn that five-year plan from a dream into a reality. Although a lot of Hinkie’s strategy is based upon acquiring a slew of draft picks, even he says that the NBA Draft is essentially a crap shoot, as he mentions in a February interview with Business Insider.
We will not bat a thousand on every single draft pick. We also have them by the bushelful, in part, because of that. We don’t have any hubris that we will get them all right. We’re not certain that we have an enormous edge over anybody else. In some cases, we might not have an edge at all.
In Hinkie’s first two years as the GM of the Philadelphia 76ers, it appears that he’s seemingly crafted an extremely exciting base with Noel, Embiid and whomever the team goes after in this year’s draft. While the team could continue to build around that cure and make gradual improvements, Hinkie and company can’t and won’t just be about making small improvements year-after-year. So to make that transition into becoming a high 50-team, either of these two things would have to occur:
a. Embiid, Noel and the lottery pick will have make an immediate transformation into becoming All-Star caliber players, or;
b. They use the assets to actually acquire a game-changing player through a trade.
While both options appear to be a bit far-fetched, especially going into the 2015-16 season, it actually wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see the team eventually trade for an All-Star talent. Alongside that slew of future picks, the Sixers have an insane amount of cap room that would allow them to take a chance on a highly-paid player without nearing the salary cap threshold. Even with the guaranteed $12 million owed to the waived JaVale McGee, and between $3 million (for the fifth pick) to $4.5 million (for the first) cap hold for their highest pick, the team salary for next year will only be at $34 million, $33 million under the league’s projected salary cap for the 2015-16 season. To put that in perspective, the highest-paid player in the NBA in 2015-16, Kobe Bryant, will rope in $25 million.
Even though Hinkie and the Sixers will have an opportunity to utilize that huge amount of cap space to get an All-Star caliber player or two, this off-season might not be the best opportunity for them to do so. While using all of those assets and just going all-in sounds like a fun idea, it might be best for them to keep on waiting, even if it means another season in the cellar. Using the 2015-16 season to wait and see that core continue to mesh and grow, to truly see what they have and what additions they’ll have to make to help complement the young core, might be the correct if unappealing play.
Although those are some ideas about what Sam Hinkie and the Sixers could possibly do during the 2015 off-season and beyond, I think it’s best to never really expect anything predictable from this Sixers organization. So to answer that above question, I don’t quite know what Hinkie’s plan is. But I, like every basketball fan, will love to find out.
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