With the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs about to start, this seemed like the perfect time to take a look at our official BASG preseason predictions. And by “perfect,” I mean totally self-serving. Besides believing too much in two teams that everyone seemed to like before their seasons went to crap — Houston and Atlanta — I actually didn’t embarrass myself this year.
Predicted records first, actual 2013 records in parentheses.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5 (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6 (13-3)
St. Louis Rams: 9-7 (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9 (9-7)
Probably some local bias going on here. I gave too much credit to the Rams and nowhere near enough to the Seahawks and Carson Palmer’s effect on the Cardinals.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: 10-6 (5-10-1)
Green Bay Packers: 9-7 (8-7-1)
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7-9)
Chicago Bears: 6-10 (8-8)
I blame Christian Ponder.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (4-12)
Carolina Panthers: 10-6 (12-4)
New Orleans Saints: 9-7 (11-5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-11 (4-12)
Take Atlanta and place them at the bottom, and this was almost perfect!
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (8-8)
New York Giants: 8-8 (7-9)
Washington Redskins: 8-8 (3-13)
Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (10-6)
I was sure that I gave the Eagles the nod before I went back and checked these, but instead I pulled a Romo.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 10-6 (13-3)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (11-5)
Oakland Raiders: 4-12 (4-12)
San Diego Chargers: 3-13 (9-7)
CSN should make me their Raiders Insider.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (11-5)
Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (4-12)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-11 (8-8)
The Steelers didn’t quite fail as hard as I thought they would, and the Ravens ended up being worse because Ray Rice suddenly became a 40-year-old.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 11-5 (11-5)
Houston Texans: 10-5-1 (2-14)
Tennessee Titans: 6-9-1 (7-9)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12 (4-12)
Remember when everyone looked at the 49ers 2013 schedule and went, “Oooohhhh, they have to play the Texans and Falcons?” That’s why fans shouldn’t look at the 2014 schedule and get too bent out of shape because they have to play the Broncos, Chiefs, Saints and Eagles. Odds are one or two of those teams misses the playoffs next season.
AFC East
New England Patriots: 9-7 (12-4)
Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills: 5-11 (6-10)
New York Jets: 3-13 (8-8)
I still don’t believe in the Patriots. Nice job from Rex Ryan and Geno Smith to keep the Jets semi-respectable.
Playoff Predictions
NFC
Wildcard: Panthers over Vikings; Seahawks over Cowboys
Divisional: 49ers over Panthers; Seahawks over Falcons
Championship: 49ers over Seahawks
AFC
Wildcard: Ravens over Bengals; Texans over Patriots
Divisional: Colts over Texans; Ravens over Broncos
Championship: Colts over Ravens
Super Bowl: 49ers over Colts
My Super Bowl pick is still alive! However, according to this ridiculous conspiracy floating around the internet, Roger Goodell already planned on having the Chargers upset the Seahawks in February. A New York Super Bowl featuring two West Coast teams. Sounds likely!
***
Alex Smith over/unders
I forgot I even wrote this after the 49ers traded Alex Smith, probably because the post was written in March and I’ve written almost 2,800 posts over the years (excuses, excuses).
1. How many wins for the Chiefs next year?
Prediction: 9 wins (the Chiefs will benefit from a new coach and QB, plus they’re in a pretty lousy division … sorry Raiders and Chargers fans)
Actual: Not sure why I didn’t set up an over/under for wins. I underestimated the Smith/Reid combo by two games.
2. Over/Under in 2013: 65% completion rate
Prediction: Under (too few receivers and Smith’s highest comp% before 2012 was 61.3 in 2011)
Actual: Under (60.6%, but he completed 65.2% of his passes in the playoffs!)
3. Over/Under in 2013 7.0 YPA
Prediction: Over (even though I’m not sure who’ll he’ll throw to, I think Smith is going to let it fly now that he has a fresh start)
Actual: Under (6.52)
4. Over/Under in 2013: 20 TD
Prediction: Under (Smith has never thrown 20 TD passes in a season, a stat you shouldn’t tell Chiefs fans or they’ll start crying BBQ sauce tears)
Actual: Over (23)
5. Over/Under in 2013: 3,000 yards
Prediction: Over (same reasoning as No. 3)
Actual: Over (3,313)
In all, Smith had pretty close to the year I expected. The Chiefs far outpaced most preseason expectations as a team, thanks to one of the league’s better coaches and a defense that took advantage of a pretty easy schedule through the first nine weeks of the season. Still feel bad for him for how that game against the Colts went, though. He was Brett Favre mixed with a little Steve Young in the first half of that game.