For four years, I’ve asked the same question here: Who are the 50 best baseball players not in the Hall of Fame? It’s not 50 players who need to be enshrined tomorrow or ever, necessarily, just the 50 best not enshrined. As founder and editor of this website, it’s my pleasure to present the latest answer to this question.
To anyone who’s new, four things:
1) This project is strictly voter-driven. A record 208 people voted this year, not far off from the first three years combined. As an aside, I do little to no active campaigning and invite people to set their own criteria.
2) Everyone who votes is required to vote for 50 players. Next to each player a person selects, the voter is tasked to put a “Yes” or “No” designating if the player belongs in the Hall of Fame. The latter component has no effect on ranking and is meant, in part, to signify that a player can be among the 50 best not in Cooperstown while having no business holding a plaque there. It’s part of the essence of this project.
3) Any player who hasn’t appeared in the majors in five years is eligible for this project. A player need not have played 10 seasons or even in the majors to be eligible here.
4) Please feel free check out the preceding three years of this project: Version 3.0, Version 2.0 and the debut of this project.
All this being said, here’s how voting came out this year:
1. Tim Raines, 191 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 177 yes, 11 no, 3 N/A), written by Dan McCloskey of Left Field:
Only eight players in history have reached base 4,000 times, scored 1,500 runs, stolen 500 bases and were worth more than 60 Wins Above Replacement lifetime.
Six of them (Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan, Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins and Honus Wagner) are unquestionably among the top five all-time at their respective positions. Of those six, only Bonds (due to PED questions) and Collins (due to the overcrowded ballot during the Hall’s early years) are not first-ballot Hall of Famers.
The seventh is Paul Molitor, who doesn’t quite fit into the top five all-time at his position category (unless you count DH), but is a first ballot inductee nonetheless.
The eighth, of course, is Tim Raines.
You can cherry-pick an argument for virtually any candidate, but there’s no reasonable debate against this straightforward comparison of Raines to seven upper tier Hall of Fame caliber players.
Lest anyone think he was just a compiler, his career WAR/162 of 4.455 ranks ahead of 55 Hall of Fame position players, including Brooks Robinson, Robin Yount, Reggie Jackson, Eddie Murray and Ernie Banks (h/t @BRefPlayIndex).
As the voters of this project have attested by ranking him in the top ten for the fourth year in a row, and No. 1 for the second straight year, Tim Raines is clearly one of the Hall of Fame’s most glaring omissions.
2. (Tie) Craig Biggio, 185 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 170 yes, 11 no, 4 N/A), written by Mark Kreidler, a voting member of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Kreidler explains here why he gave Biggio a vote in the BBWAA’s 2014 Hall of Fame election:
In an era of redrawn valuations, on a Hall of Fame list that grows more vexing each year, Biggio strikes me as one of the easiest Yes votes on the ballot – and he did so in 2013, when I voted for him in his first year of eligibility. A multi-position player whose up-the-middle metrics compare favorably with HOF standards, Biggio ranks 21st in MLB history in hits and 15th in runs scored, and he delivered more doubles than any RH hitter ever. (“Team guy” addendum: He was HBP more times than any player in the modern era.) He wound up with 3,060 hits, likely extending his career a year too long to do it – but even for those who aren’t milestone-fascinated, three thousand hits is something only 27 other players have achieved. It’s not nothing. And Biggio did this while earning four Gold Gloves, playing his entire career for a single organization, making 19 straight Opening Day starts, being honored as a Roberto Clemente Award recipient for community service, and being recognized – by teammate after teammate – as the lock-down, no-questions-asked leader of a Houston franchise that enjoyed its only run of sustained excellence on his watch. He goes in.
2. (Tie) Jeff Bagwell, 185 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 171 yes, 10 no, 4 N/A), written by Daren Willman of Baseball Savant:
Jeff Bagwell was the most dominant first baseman of the mid 90’s and is very worthy of the hall of fame. His numbers speak for themselves. In the 15 year period he played, he was second in RBI (1529), third in runs (1517), hits (2314), and walks (1401), and fifth in HR (449). Bagwell received MVP votes in 10 of his 15 years and won it in 1994. He’s one of only 12 players in MLB history to hit 400 HRs and steal 200 bases. While playing Bagwell was regarded as one of the smartest base runners in the league. His career stats compared to all players are equally as impressive 40th all-time in OBP, 36th in OPS+, and 63rd in career WAR. With all these things considered Jeff Bagwell should be a hall of famer.
4. Greg Maddux *New to ballot*, 183 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 179 yes, 1 no, 3 N/A), written by me:
Greg Maddux is the reason I will be trimming the ballot next year. I included more than 500 players on the ballot this year, making it somewhat unwieldy and indecipherable. On a clear, easy-to-read ballot, a player like Greg Maddux ought to get 100 percent of the vote. If the longtime Atlanta Braves ace, four-time Cy Young Award recipient and 355-game winner wasn’t the best pitcher of his generation or even baseball history, he isn’t far off.
5. Barry Bonds, 181 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 143 yes, 35 no, 3 N/A), written by Dan Szymborski of ESPN.com and Baseball Think Factory:
In a normal world, you would not be reading anything about Barry Bonds in this space. Based purely on the whole “playing baseball” thing, Bonds missing from Cooperstown is the equivalent of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame leaving out the Beatles. They did take creativity-enhancing drugs after all…
But just in case you need to be reminded of the excellence of Barry Bonds, let’s run down the crazier parts of his resumé. 762 homers. a .298/.444/.607 career line for an OPS+ of 182, the latter number behind only Babe Ruth and Ted Williams, two sluggers whose names you should at least vaguely recall. 7 MVP awards, 8 Gold Gloves, 12 Silver Sluggers, and if there existed an award with Platinum or Diamond in the name, Bonds would probably have 10 of those too. Before performance-enhancing drugs became a concern in baseball, a half-century after their introduction into the sport, Bonds was infamous among casual fans for not playing well in the playoffs, which he eventually rectified to finish with a .936 career postseason OPS.
Bonds is one of the greatest players to ever play baseball. Not greatest in the sense that one would say “Wow, that was totally the greatest sandwich I ever ate!” but the kind of greatness that inspires generations. To write the story of 1990s/2000s baseball and not talk about the feats of Bonds is like writing a history of the Civil War and not mentioning Ulysses S. Grant. Come back here in a year’s time and again, Barry Bonds will top this list.
6. Mike Piazza, 178 votes out of 208, (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 165 yes, 10 no, 3 N/A), written by Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus:
Writers often engage in hyperbole when discussing Hall of Fame candidates, but despite Piazza’s amazing offensive numbers as a catcher he hasn’t generated the same excitement that some all-time greats have when they reach the ballot. Some of this is a result of all of the negativity surrounding PEDs (even though Piazza has never been linked to steroids in any way whatsoever), but most of it probably is due to a misunderstanding of his value. His rWAR of 59.2 is low for a Hall of Famer, but when you compare Piazza only to other catchers, he sits right up there with all time greats like Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, and Carlton Fisk, at least with the bat. Piazza’s 427 home runs and .308/.377/.545 slash are amazing numbers for an everyday catcher and even when you adjust for his era his career offensive WAR is on a par with Bench’s. It’s easy to make a Hall case for Piazza even with “simpler” numbers; he hit 30 home runs or more nine years out of 10 and .300 or better for 10 consecutive seasons. Piazza belongs in the Hall, and despite the current ballot logjam should eventually find his way to Cooperstown.
7. Roger Clemens, 178 votes (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 139 yes, 36 no, 3 N/A), written by Michael Clair, who will be doing a charity blogathon for Doctors Without Borders this month. In lieu of donating to this project, please consider donating to Michael’s worthy cause:
There are those that say the horned minotaur is simply a creature of fiction, of myth, that there is no way a creature with the head of a bull and the body of a man could exist. Those people clearly never saw Roger Clemens pitch.
The fact that Clemens, weighing in at 205 lbs of ground chuck, spit, and vinegar, remains on this list, earning only 37.6% of the vote last year, is a shame. He has seven Cy Youngs awards, 354 victories, a 3.12 ERA. Seven times he lead the league in shutouts, another seven in ERA. Five times he lead the league in strikeouts, twice in innings. His 140.3 JAWS is third behind Walter Johnson and Cy Young. He even has his own Nintendo video game.
Clemens also had two separate peaks, his early years from 1986-1992, going 136-63 with a 2.66 ERA and his comeback with the Blue Jays, going 149-61 with a 3.22 ERA between 1997 and 2005. Just one of those is enough for a Hall of Fame career, two is simply overwhelming.
So while his performance can’t be denied, only Clemens’ use of performance enhancing drugs is keeping him out of Cooperstown. Forget that Clemens is arguably the greatest pitcher of all-time despite playing the second half of his career in a heightened offensive environment. Forget that much of his competition was also using drugs. Because Clemens was so successful, arrogant, and bull-headed, the voters have decided to trap Clemens in a labyrinth of fuzzy moral logic and out of Cooperstown.
And that’s more absurd than a creature with a bull’s head and a man’s body.
8. Alan Trammell, 177 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 148 yes, 22 no, 7 N/A), written by Joshua Pease:
Alan Trammell is inexorably linked with Lou Whitaker, who now rather famously failed to reach the 5 percent threshold in his only year on the Hall of Fame ballot. Thankfully, Trammell remains on the ballot, though he is now in his 13th year of eligibility and has yet to hit even 40 percent of the vote. Trammell debuted in 1977 and manned shortstop for the Tigers for the next 20 seasons, retiring in 1996. Over the course of his career, he proved to be an excellent all-around talent. He was an above average hitter (111 wRC+ and 3 Silver Sluggers), had good power for a shortstop (185 HR), was a good baserunner (236 SB), and played excellent defense (22 dWAR on Baseball Reference and 4 Gold Gloves). He was a better hitter than Ozzie Smith, as good a fielder as Cal Ripken, and a similar all-around player to Barry Larkin. The fact the Trammell was very good at everything but otherworldly at nothing may very well be what has kept Hall of Fame voters from enshrining him thus far.
I would vote for Alan Trammell if I had a Hall of Fame ballot.
9. Tom Glavine *New to ballot*, 176 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 170 yes, 3 no, 3 N/A), written by Eno Sarris of Fangraphs:
The word is “frustrating.” Both the numbers and the eyes agree on that one. Tom Glavine spent most years striking out batters at a well-below average rate. His walk rate was only slightly better than average. His ground-ball rate, though only measured in the twilight of his career, was basically average. He gave up a ton of hits — almost 4,300 by the time he hung it up. Somehow, he spent a career doing average things and getting great results. You still can’t ignore the 3.54 career ERA or the 305 wins just because he was on good teams and over-performed his peripherals. At some point, you just have to believe. Remember how frustrating it was to watch him hit that outside corner with fastball and changeup, time and time again. Remember how he stretched that outside corner as far as the umpire would let him. Remember how he just didn’t give up home runs with runners on base. These things all contribute to the confounding gap between his peripherals and results, and they even inspire us to re-examine some of our assumptions about pitching. So really all that frustration is just food for inspiration.
10. Shoeless Joe Jackson, 174 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 143 yes, 36 no, 5 N/A), written by Christopher Kamka of Comcast SportsNet Chicago:
Shoeless Joe Jackson is a player often distorted by myth and legend, but is best appreciated by simply examining the facts.
Joe could never exist today. Perhaps this is why he remains one of the more intriguing figures in baseball history. Can you imagine a guy playing an actual game in his socks? Even in the minors? For that matter, who was the last illiterate superstar to grace the diamond?
Consider the circumstances under which his career ended. A group of players throwing a World Series because they’re underpaid? Jackson’s 1919 salary was $6,000. Calculating for inflation, that translates to roughly $80,000, while today’s league minimum is more than six times that. Forget about it.
Jackson’s last season was 1920; his age 32 season. Plenty of good baseball left. His first sniff of the live ball era. What would he have done with league production trending like this:
American League average BA/SLG for the last five seasons of Jackson’s career
1916 .248/.324
1917 .248/.320
1918 .254/.322
1919 .268/.359
1920 .283/.387
AL average BA/SLG for the first five seasons after Jackson
1921 .292/.408
1922 .285/.398
1923 .283/.388
1924 .290/.397
1925 .292/.408
How many more .400 seasons? In the inflated offensive era of the 1920′s, many doubles & triples would turn into homers. Would White Sox fans not have had to wait until Bill Melton in 1971 for the first 30-HR season in franchise history? It’s a compelling thought because of his limited but incredible body of work.
Jackson hit .408, .395 & .378 in his first three full seasons – but thanks to Ty Cobb, he finished second in the American League each time.
Amazingly, he put up a .356 lifetime average (3rd all-time) without a single batting title. He had a .423 OBP, good for 16th all-time. Struck out only 234 times against 519 walks.
Jackson’s career OPS+ of 170 is tied with Dan Brouthers for 7th all-time. Only Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, & Mickey Mantle are better.
He compiled 2,800 plate appearances for two original American League franchises (Indians & White Sox) and still owns the highest lifetime average for each (.375 for Cleveland, .340 for Chicago).
His game was not just limited to hitting. He could also run (202 SB), and throw (183 outfield assists).
This is a player who could conceivably make a list of the top 50 players period; not just limited to those not enshrined in Cooperstown.
Shoeless Joe Jackson (along with the other seven Black Sox) and John D. Rockefeller (a stunning $29 million fine imposed in 1907 on his Standard Oil in antitrust case) were the two most notable opponents taken down by Kenesaw Mountain Landis. The Standard Oil fine was overturned long ago. Isn’t it about time to give Joe his due?
11. Edgar Martinez, 170 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 134 yes, 31 no, 5 N/A), written by Bryan O’Connor of Replacement Level Blog:
We tend to talk about baseball players’ Hall of Fame candidacies in terms of greatness. The greatest players are cast in bronze, while the less great need a ticket to get into the museum. Greatness seems more closely tied to talent than it is to value, which reflects both talent and opportunity.
Taken on value, Edgar Martinez is a worthy Hall of Famer. His 68.3 WAR (per baseball-reference) rank 64th among eligible position players, well above the established standard and ahead of no-doubt Hall of Famers like Ernie Banks, Willie McCovey, and Dave Winfield.
Edgar’s case, though, is far stronger when measured by talent, irrespective of opportunity. Blocked by such legends as Jim Presley and Alvin Davis, Martinez didn’t crack the Mariners’ starting lineup until age 27 despite batting above .340 over his last three years in the minors. Defensively, he was an adequate third baseman, putting up positive Total Zone rankings more often than not until being banished to designated hitter duties in 1995, when Mike Blowers was ready to start butchering the position.
The original Papi’s 147 career OPS+ ranks 37th among Hall eligibles- 29th if we consider only players whose careers began after 1900. By this measure, he was a better hitter than Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, or Alex Rodriguez. He accumulated more adjusted batting runs than Carl Yastrzemski in more than 5,000 fewer plate appearances, and more than Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Johnny Bench combined.
Martinez, it seems, is outside the Hall of Fame now because he did not play in the field for three quarters of his career. McCovey and Killebrew were hitters of similar talent who cost their teams scores of runs by playing the field, only because the rules said they had to. His employers’ decisions should not cost Edgar Martinez the bronze bust he deserves.
12. Frank Thomas *New to ballot*, 168 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 158 yes, 7 no, 3 N/A), written by Dan Evans, currently a scout for the Toronto Blue Jays; former general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and assistant GM for the Chicago White Sox:
I was part of the White Sox staff involved in drafting Frank Thomas with the 7th selection overall in the 1989 draft. We thought his unique combination of zone awareness and power would develop into an impact bat. It turned out to be consistent excellence. I worked for the White Sox through Thomas’s first 11 seasons and made sure I saw nearly every one of his plate appearances in that span.
One of the best right-handed hitters in MLB history, Thomas was a rare combination of high batting average, elite all-fields power, remarkable consistency, and an outstanding strike zone feel. His .301/.419/.555 career triple slash is matched or bettered in all three categories by only five players in history and his career .419 OBP is the best for a right-handed hitter since World War II.
Thomas is the only player ever with seven consecutive seasons of at least a .300 batting average, 100 walks, 100 runs, 100 RBI, and at least 20 homers, and it occurred in his initial seven full years (1991-1997). He won consecutive American League MVP Awards in 1993-94, placed in the top 10 in MVP balloting seven other times, and won the 1997 AL batting title. His .729 SLG and .487 OBP marks in 1994 were levels that had not been attained by an AL hitter since Ted Williams in 1957.
Nicknamed “The Big Hurt,” Thomas played the bulk of his career with the White Sox, and also played for Oakland and Toronto over his 19-year career. His 521 career homers rank 18th all-time, and more than one-half were hit to centerfield or right-center field. His #35 was retired by the White Sox in 2010.
Throughout Thomas’ career, he was outspoken about PED use among some of his peers. After hitting his 500th career homer, he said “This means a lot to me, because I did it the right way.” He was the only active player to voluntarily interview for the 2007 Mitchell Report.
I look forward to being in Cooperstown this summer when he is inducted into the Hall of Fame.
13. Pete Rose, 166 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 122 yes, 41 no, 3 N/A), written by Alex Putterman, assistant sports editor for the Daily Northwestern (Northwestern University):
Maybe Pete Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame — he’s the all-time hit king, of course, and achieved that distinction through an impressive peak and famous longevity. He is arguably the iconic player of his era, and Cooperstown is about nothing if not iconic players.
Or maybe he doesn’t belong in the Hall — he committed baseball’s cardinal sin, guilty of the most explicitly inexcusable offense of the time. He deserved punishment, and there’s no reason to commute his permanent sentence.
But the semantics of this project render that debate irrelevant. We’re looking for the best players not in the Hall, and all else aside, Rose is one of them. JAWs lists him as the fifth most Hall-worthy left-fielder ever (well ahead of Tim Raines, for example). He’s eighth among eligible non-Hall of Famers in WAR on Baseball-Reference and seventh in WAR on FanGraphs and in Hall Rating on HallofStats.com. Had Roseretired before a series of sub-replacement seasons he could rank even higher. It’s not unreasonable to argue using career value stats that he’s the fourth or fifth best player outside of the Hall.
Thus Rose, like a host of others here, is likely held down in voting for this project by non-baseball factors. Unlike those drug-accused others, his transgressions did not affect how good a baseball player he was.
This doesn’t necessarily mean Pete should have a place in the Hall of Fame. It does mean he should have a place very high up on this list.
14. Larry Walker, 161 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 119 yes, 37 no, 5 N/A), written by Brendan Bingham:
Most players perform better at home than on the road, but Larry Walker is an unusual case. His career numbers are dominated by the extreme park effects of pre-humidor Coors Field, making it difficult to compare him to other players of his day.
Limiting the analysis to road splits and choosing career slash line as the metric, let’s get a glimpse of the Larry Walker who would have existed had he never played for the Colorado Rockies. Slash line is a vast oversimplification, but it provides a quick and easy handle on hitting performance, especially when era and career length are controlled for. Like Walker, all of the players mentioned below played from the late 80s or early 90s through at least 2005, and all had at least 4000 plate appearances on the road.
As a hitter, Walker (.278/.370/.495) was a step ahead of Steve Finley (.273/.332/.447) and Ivan Rodriquez (.285/.322/.447), but no match for Manny Ramirez (.314/.409/.580), Frank Thomas (.297/.414/.511) or Jeff Bagwell (.291/.398/.521). Walker was somewhere in between, part of a cluster that includes Bernie Williams (.299/.378/.479), Luis Gonzalez (.283/.367/.489), Rafael Palmeiro (.291/.366/.502) and Ken Griffey, Jr. (.272/.355/.505).
Thanks to Coors Field, Walker was Superman at home and Jeff Kent (.290/.353/.504) on the road.
15. Mark McGwire, 158 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 99 yes, 56 no, 3 N/A), written by Susan Fornoff. Fornoff was instrumental in getting female reporters access to locker rooms and wrote a book about it. She covered McGwire and the Oakland Athletics’ beat for the Sacramento Bee in the 1980s and ’90s:
In the final round of a home-run derby pool in the spring of 1987, because no other name came to mind, I chose Mark McGwire. He wasn’t supposed to be a starter for the Oakland A’s that year, but, geez, he looked powerful and had hit three homers in an 18-game major-league cameo a year earlier. It was the last round, what the heck.
Needless to say, I cleaned up in that home-run pool when McGwire hit 49 homers, drove in 118 runs and hit .289 to coast to the Rookie of the Year award. All of us who watched him marveled at his seemingly limited potential.
We also marveled at his huge arms and neck the next spring. How on earth did he grow so much in just a few months?
McGwire excelled in the steroid era. If I represented him during so many years he stayed quiet thereafter, I probably would’ve advise him to just come out and say so. Say, “I’m sorry I used steroids. But I played in the era of the steroid. I did the best I could in the conditions of the game at the time.” Three years ago, he finally came clean.
With 15 seasons of 20 homers or more — and 12 of those over 30 — plus seven seasons of 100 RBIs or more, a respectable career batting average of .263 and a pretty nifty glove at first when he was healthy and at his best, McGwire deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Apply a steroid tariff — 20 percent, even — and he’d make it in any other baseball era.
16. Curt Schilling, 157 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 127 yes, 27 no, 3 N/A), written by Amanda Gill:
Curt Schilling is most well known as a member of the Boston Red Sox for the infamous “Bloody Sock.” However, there was more to Schilling’s playing career than one postseason legend. Schilling spent time with five teams during his MLB career: the Orioles, Astros, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox and he went to the World Series with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox, winning World Series Championships with Arizona (2001) and Boston (2004, 2007). Across his 20 years in the big leagues, Schilling amassed numerous impressive statistics including a career record of 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA, 3116 strikeouts to 711 walks, and an 11-2 record with a 2.23 ERA in postseason play. Schilling’s true lore lies in the postseason where he accumulated accolades including a NLCS MVP award with the Phillies in 1993, and a share of a World Series MVP with Randy Johnson when the Arizona Diamondbacks won in 2001. Curt Schilling deserves to be added into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. As a six-time All-Star and a three-time World Series champion, Schilling boasts a phenomenal combination of regular season and postseason success that he deserves to be enshrined for.
17. Dwight Evans, 155 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 98 yes, 51 no, 6 N/A), written by Dalton Mack of High Heat Stats:
Dewey never had the MVPs nor the widespread praise that outfield mates Fred Lynn or Jim Rice could lay claim to, was never the talk of Major League Baseball in his rookie season nor considered the “most feared hitter in baseball.” What Dwight Evans was however, was the 4th greatest position player in Red Sox history by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), behind only men named Williams, Yastrzemski and Boggs.
He only led the American League once in a traditional slash category (22 HRs in strike-shortened 1981), but where Evans excelled was in decidedly unsexy areas, like drawing walks and playing great defense. In fact, his 103 Fielding Runs from 1974-81 was, among outfielders, second only to Garry Maddox.
So why the lack of BBWAA support for Evans, who peaked at a tad over ten percent his second year on the ballot and fell off the following cycle? Likely for the same reason that keeps Alan Trammell from making Hall of Fame progress year after year—Evans did a host of things very well, without being truly outstanding at any particular one.
18. Dick Allen, 154 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 101 yes, 47 no, 6 N/A), written by Neal Kendrick of High Heat Stats:
The 1960′s and 70′s had some amazing players, all time greats like Mays, Aaron, & Frank Robinson. However there was one other great basher in that period that has largely been forgotten. Perhaps it’s because he was never a graceful fielder making dazzling plays, or maybe simply because he was traveling from city to city, but with the batDick Allen was right up there with anybody. Probably the best way to evaluate a player’s hitting ability is wRC+. It factors era, league, and home ballpark to give a true measure of a hitter’s performance, with 100 being average. Dick Allen had a 155 career wRC+. From 1963-1977, the length of Dick Allen’s career, that was tied with Frank Robinson for the best mark in baseball, ahead of pantheon guys like Mays, Aaron, Clemente, and Reggie Jackson. Allen was a dynamic all around hitter, who 3 times lead the league in Slugging Percentage, and twice in On-Base Percentage. He won an MVP award in 1972, receiving 21 of a possible 24 first place votes, in what arguably wasn’t even his best season. He had a slightly higher WAR in 1964 as a rookie. Dick Allen may not have been one of the most complete players of all-time, but he was certainly one of the best hitters of all-time. Across virtually the same timeframe Willie McCovey had .374 OBP and .515 SLG% with poor defense at first, while Dick Allen had a .378 OBP and .534 SLG% with poor defense at first and third. If McCovey can make it on the first ballot then Dick Allen should make it too.
19. Mike Mussina *New to ballot*, 150 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 125 yes, 22 no, 3 N/A), written by Jen Mac Ramos of Beyond the Box Score:
1999 was a good year for pitching. For one, Pedro Martinez was having a career year — one that lead to winning the AL Cy Young award. Everyone remembers Pedro. There’s Mariano Rivera, Bartolo Colon, David Cone, Jamie Moyer. They’re all easy to name. I know those were some of the first players I was aware of when I started following the game in 2007.
But then, there’s Mike Mussina. He kinda flew under the radar — pitching for the Orioles for more than half his career, and mostly on Orioles teams that were middlingin the AL East. That didn’t stop Mussina from throwing numbers worthy of the Hall of Fame: 3.68 ERA, 23 CGSHO, 3.58 K/BB, 0.95 HR/9, 82.8 RA9-WAR, 82.7 rWAR. He also averaged 34 games started for every 162 games his team played. Mike Mussina was a consistent pitcher, with some of the best numbers a career could have.
20. Lou Whitaker, 148 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 123 yes, 23 no, 2 N/A), written by Paul McCord of Braves Paul:
When “Sweet Lou” retired, he was one of only five second baseman ever with 200 homers, 1000 runs scored, and 1000 RBI (Alomar, Biggio, and Kent have since made Whitaker one of eight). His 74.8 career bWAR was highest among position players on the 2001 Hall of Fame ballot, including inductees Dave Winfield (64.0) and Kirby Puckett (50.8). He was clearly one of the best offensive second baseman in baseball history, and he was part of the most prolific double-play duo the game has ever seen. So why was Whitaker dismissed from Hall of Fame consideration so unceremoniously in his only year on the ballot?
Whitaker’s career numbers are remarkably similar to Ryne Sandberg’s (each is the other’s most similar batter in MLB history), which works well for this discussion since “Ryno” also played second base and wound up in the Hall of Fame. A comparison reveals that Whitaker’s consistency may actually have been his Hall of Fame weakness. He didn’t shine as brightly on consistently good Tigers teams as Sandberg did on consistently bad Cubs teams, and Whitaker’s lengthy peak that lasted late until his retirement simply lacked flair compared to Sandberg’s eye-popping numbers (and eventual flame-out).
21. Rafael Palmeiro, 146 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 80 yes, 57 no, 9 N/A), written by Mike Hllywa:
Let’s say you’re a General Manager, and you have the chance to add a player to your roster who averages a slash line of .288/.371/.515 for every 162 games played. That’s good for an OPS+ of 132. Would you do it? Of course you would. Who wouldn’t want an above average hitter with an above average walk-rate and above average power? And that is the type of hitter than Rafael Palmeiro was for the balance of his career.
But none of that is ever going to matter to the BBWAA because Palmeiro got busted when a urinalysis came back positive for steroids.
Was it the Ballpark in Arlington or the short walls at Camden Yards that played perfectly to the kind of swing that Palmeiro had? Or was it the anabolic cocktails that he was taking? We will never know. But we will always know this: From Palmeiro’s rookie season on, he never posted an OPS+ below 108, and that came in the final two seasons of his career. He wasn’t the best defender despite his fabled Gold Glove season in 1999. But with a bat in his hand, Rafael Palmeiro had few equals during his 20-year baseball career. Very few equals.
22. Sammy Sosa, 134 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 68 yes, 64 no, 2 N/A), written by Mauricio Rubio of Cubs Den and Baseball Prospectus:
When baseball was taken from me in my youth by a confusing labor dispute my passion for the game waned and I experimented with other sports. I wandered in the football and soccer territories but was called home by Sammy Sosa and 1998. We’ve learned a lot about what was behind those home run chases. The luster is gone but I do remember Sosa in a warmer light than most. His 609 HR total and career slash line of .273/.344/.534 isn’t as impressive as it seemed 20 years ago but those numbers still speak to a player who was great at his peak, even if the numbers were augmented by playing conditions (probable) and chemicals (likely).
Sosa is a polarizing figure whose greatness is overshadowed by what went on during his career, but I feel that history will be kinder to him in the long run. It’s irresponsible to pretend that he didn’t happen and we should make peace with his place in baseball history.
23. Luis Tiant, 133 votes out of 208, (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 85 yes, 42 no, 6 N/A), written by Andrew Martin of Baseball Historian:
Tiant is an interesting case. Although he had 229 wins, a 3.30 ERA and 2,416 strikeouts, he comes across as more of an accumulator because of his 19-year career. Make no mistake about it though, because he was a dominant pitcher.
A severe shoulder injury abbreviated his 1970 and 1971 seasons and caused him to reinvent himself in his prime, which prevented him from padding his already impressive resume.
The right hander’s record is one of contradictions. He won 20 or more games four times, led the league in ERA twice, and totaled an impressive 187 complete games and 49 shutouts. His career WAR of 66.1 is 40th all-time among pitchers according to BaseballReference.com. On the other hand, he made just three All-Star teams and never finished higher than fourth in Cy Young voting—both things Hall of Fame pundits typically hold in high regard.
Bert Blyleven (career ERA+ of 118), who was a similar accumulator and took 14 years of steadily increasing vote totals to finally get inducted, is a reason for Tiant (career ERA+ of 114) to have hope. However, since Tiant fell off the ballot in 2002, his fate rests in the hands of the Veterans Committee.
24. (Tie) Bobby Grich, 126 votes out of 208, (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 97 yes, 28 no, 1 N/A), written by Diane Firstman of Value Over Replacement Grit:
Robert Anthony Grich was a first-round draft pick of the Orioles in 1967 and played shortstop during his time in the minors before settling in at second in Baltimore in 1973 after the O’s traded away Davey Johnson.
Grich was a confident soul. Writer Phil Jackman recounted one day in 1970, Frank Robinson came by when Grich was talking about hitting and remarked: “What does a rookie like you know about hitting?” Grich replied to Robinson: “Tell you something, pal. I’ll be hitting for 10 years around here after you’re gone.”
1972 was the Grich’s first full season in the big leagues, and he compiled a 127 OPS+ (.278/.358/.415) while being named an All-Star and receiving a few down-ballot MVP votes. He quickly established himself as an excellent fielder, with good range, soft hands, a good arm, and skill turning the double play. He won four consecutive Gold Gloves from 1973-1976 and in 1973 he set an all-time major league fielding record with a .995 fielding percentage (he broke that record in 1985, with a .997). For his career he out-performed his peers in Range Factor (5.70 to 5.40 per 9 innings) and fielding percentage (.984 to .979).
He left the Orioles via free agency after 1976 and spent the next ten years with the Angels, logging a 124 OPS+, three All-Star appearances, two years with MVP votes, and a Silver Slugger award in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Despite all of his regular season success, he never played in a World Series. He himself batted a mere .182/.247/.318 in 24 post-season games.
How should we think of Bobby Grich now? Well of the top 10 second baseman in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS Hall of Fame metric, only Grich is missing from Cooperstown. His WAR, WAR7 (7 best seasons) and JAWS scores are all above the average of the enshrinees, and the WAR7 and JAWS scores are better than current “missing from the Hall” darling Lou Whitaker.
24. (Tie) Kenny Lofton, 126 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 75 yes, 45 no, 6 N/A), written by Lewie Pollis, freelance writer for ESPN.com:
You don’t need me to tell you that Kenny Lofton was a six-time All-Star who won four Gold Gloves. It doesn’t take a third party to point out that the Hall of Stats has Lofton as the sixth-best center fielder in MLB history. And I hope it is obvious that Lofton’s falling off the Hall of Fame ballot in his first year of eligibility is one of the biggest mistakes the BBWAA has ever made.
But the stats don’t tell you that, for a baseball fan growing up in Cleveland, Lofton’s infectious energy came to define the great Indians teams of the 1990’s. With all due respect to fans of the many other teams he played for later in his career, those outside Northeast Ohio might not know what a joy it was to watch him flying across the dirt to steal a base or leaping into — or over — the wall to make a jaw-dropping catch.
I still look at Lofton with the same sense of childlike wonder that I did when my dad would take me to Jacobs Field as a kid. And I know I’m not alone.
26. Ted Simmons, 123 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 97 yes, 22 no, 4 N/A):
Former Hall of Fame senior research associate Bill Deane wrote for this project last year:
As a teenager in the mid-1970s, I’d hear people debating about who was the best catcher in baseball: Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, or Thurman Munson? I’d say, “What about Ted Simmons? The guy hit .332 with 100 RBI!” I’d get only puzzled looks from people who were barely aware that St. Louis had a team.
That exemplified Simmons’s problems in getting attention throughout his career: He played in media-Siberias and was overshadowed by two contemporary HOF catchers. But consider their average HR-RBI-AVG stats from 1971-80: Bench (27-93-.263), Fisk (16-57-.285), Simmons (17-90-.301). Simba was also unjustly regarded as a poor defensive catcher; I tackle this legend at length in my book, Baseball Myths. (Editor’s note: Page 375 of The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract notes: ‘Bill Deane has studied the records at great length, and demonstrated that Simmons threw out an above-average percentage of opposing base stealers in his prime seasons.’)
Ted Simmons retired as the all-time leader in hits and doubles among catchers, and ranked second in RBI behind only Yogi Berra. Only Ivan Rodriguez has surpassed him in those categories since. Yet, Simmons was dropped from the BBWAA HOF ballot after one try, then waited 16 years to be snubbed by the Veterans’ Committee. His next try is this December.
Simmons was one of the ten best all-around catchers in baseball history. He deserves serious consideration for Cooperstown.
27. (Tie) Keith Hernandez, 122 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 58 yes, 56 no, 8 N/A), written by Howard Megdal of Capital New York:
Usually, the list of players who aren’t in the Hall of Fame is filled with those who excelled, but cannot be called the best at anything. (Leaving the tiresome steroids arguments aside, that is.) Or if they managed to reach the absolute peak at some part of baseball, it’s a remarkably narrow one, and mitigated by other failings in their game. Lenny Harris and pinch-hitting, or Pat Tabler and bases-loaded situations come to mind.
But Keith Hernandez is the finest defensive first baseman I’ve ever seen, and I suspect will ever see. He came along just before defensive metrics allowed the baseball world to more completely factor this incredibly aspect of his game into total value, so it became almost a trivialized fact you’d find about him on the back of a Topps card: “Keith enjoys fishing, hunting, and playing first base as well as anyone, ever.”
Those lucky enough to have seen baseball when Vic Power or Gil Hodges or, when he was on the level, Hal Chase played it might disagree. But I’ve seen many first basemen since Hernandez-no one comes close.
We have no advanced defensive metrics from Hernandez’s time, though. So we are left with this fact, along with an offensive game that isn’t a blight upon his overall record, like Power’s or a man on the other side of the high brick wall to entry, Bill Mazeroski.
He was an astonishingly graceful hitter, with an offensive game notable for its breadth. Hernandez won an MVP in 1979, a year he hit .344 with 48 doubles, both league-leading marks. A year later, his .408 on-base percentage led the league as well. He recorded nine double-digit home run seasons, hitting 15 at age 23, 18 at age 33. He had a pair of top-ten NL finishes in triples. He walked 100 times one season, led the league in walks another season, and his team won the World Series both times.
I find OPS+ a terrific catch-all offensive stat. Hernandez, for his career, is at 128, a bit below Orlando Cepeda’s 133, a bit ahead of Tony Perez’s 122.
Both Perez and Cepeda, of course, are Hall of Famers. And nobody ever mistook them for Keith Hernandez in the field. There is that, the profound way Hernandez’s fielding could alter a game. It’s the kind of thing that should get a guy enshrined in Cooperstown.
27. (Tie) Tommy John, 122 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 74 yes, 42 no, 7 N/A), written by Shawn Anderson, who honored John at The Hall of Very Good:
“You look at two aspects of my career,” Tommy John said after being named the inaugural member of The Hall of Very Good™ two years ago. “You look at 26 years and you figure you’ve got to be doing something to be around for 26 years. You look at the wins, the complete games, innings pitched…and you couple that with coming back from Tommy John surgery, I think that my name should be up there with anybody.”
Pretty much sums it up, right?
The pride of Terre Haute, Indiana is probably known for two things…longevity and that surgery. Truth is, you don’t have one without the other.
We can sit here and talk about John’s 288 wins and how, when he retired in May 1989, they placed him 21st all-time and how Bobby Mathews was, at the time, only one Hall-eligible not in the Hall of Fame.
But it always comes back to that surgery, doesn’t it?
You know the story. It’s July 1974 and the 31-year-old was shelved with a pretty impressive career ERA of 2.97 and after putting up back-to-back seasons where he led the National League in winning percentage. 639 days later, the lefty would re-emerge on the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers with a new arm. He’d go on and throw 2544 innings post-surgery and collect 164 wins along the way. Sure, the ERA was a little higher than before…but John’s overall control was better.
It sounds cliché, but John had two careers that a number of pitchers would be envious of and when you add them up, you find that he belongs among those enshrined in Cooperstown.
29. Dale Murphy, 114 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 46 yes, 65 no, 3 N/A):
Murphy’s son Chadwick wrote for this project last year:
Of course I’m a little biased, but I think there’s no doubt that my dad was one of the top 5 or so players of the 1980s (eerily similar to Gil Hodges in the 50s, in fact.) No matter which side of the peak vs. longevity debate you come down on, you can always find exceptions who are already in the Hall of Fame. Even with his late-career decline, my dad was 19th on the all-time home run list (just behind Duke Snider, I believe) when he retired.
The other important consideration (which I discuss at some length here) is all the intangibles he brought to the game: the way he inspired a generation of baseball fans, especially in the South; his long streak of consecutive games for a set of Braves teams that were, for the most part, truly awful; and, most importantly (in my opinion), the integrity he brought to the way he played the game. He’s a walking advertisement, in fact, for the very cliche but undoubtedly true notion that it’s not what you achieve that matters most but how you achieve it. So it’s not just that my dad was “a nice guy.”
True, being a model citizen off-the-field shouldn’t be totally relevant to HOF decisions, but these days the more pertinent character issue, I believe, is whether or not you cut corners for personal gain and by doing so compromised the integrity of the game. Not only did my dad make the correct decisions– for himself and for the game– but he also managed to put up impressive numbers in the process. If such a well-rounded career is not worthy of the top 50, not to mention the HOF, then we might do well to re-evaluate a few things.
30. Fred McGriff, 113 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 56 yes, 55 no, 2 N/A), written by Neil Paine of fivethirtyeight.com:
McGriff’s acquisition by the Braves in the summer of 1993 has always stood out as one of my favorite “you-can’t-make-this-stuff-up” stories from baseball history. On the evening of McGriff’s Atlanta debut, a freak press-box fire delayed Atlanta’s game by 2 hours; he went on to homer in the Braves’ win later that night, touching off a stretch run in which the Crime Dog hit .310/.392/.612 and Atlanta won 51 of the 68 games he played, overcoming a 10-game deficit in July to pass the Giants for the NL West crown on the last day of the regular season.
At the time, McGriff seemed to have a good chance at the Hall of Fame, with 262 career HR and a 153 OPS+ through age 30. But from 1995 onward, McGriff — while still good — was not the hitter he once was (with the exception of vintage late-career seasons in 1999 & 2001), even as contemporaries like Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire continued to hit like superstars.
Then again, this has come to be a point in McGriff’s favor in recent years, as McGriff’s name has remained clean while many of peers who outpaced him in their 30s were implicated in doping scandals. In the end, McGriff’s legacy will be as a key cog on the dynasty Braves of the 90s and one of the best clean power hitters of his era… There are worse marks to leave on the game.
31. (Tie) Jack Morris, 109 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 51 yes, 54 no, 4 N/A), written by Alex Putterman, assistant sports editor for the Daily Northwestern (Northwestern University):
Much (much, much) has been written about Jack Morris’s statistical inadequacy as compared to Hall of Fame precedents. The debate about the former Tigers ace’s Hall qualifications has essentially overwhelmed all other conversation about his career.
Truth is, Morris compares unfavorably to most pitching inductees of the last 40 years and to numerous non-Hall of Fame pitchers as well — using both stats conceived a century ago and formulas created yesterday. By the numbers, Morris’s lack of worthiness should be near-unanimous.
And yet…
Last year more than two thirds of BBWAA voters granted the righthander a Hall vote.
Morris has finished in the top 40 of this project three of its four years.
Knowledgeable and reasonable baseball people insist he belongs in Cooperstown.
I’m too young to have experienced Morris’s career in real time. All I have to evaluate him are those underwhelming statistics. That and the opinions of my elders.
So, as I figure, the best argument for Morris’s inclusion on this list and in the Hall is that a lot of people think he should be on this list and in the Hall.
31. (Tie) Jeff Kent *New to ballot*, 109 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 74 yes, 31 no, 4 N/A), written by Kyla Wall-Polin:
Jeff Kent might be the textbook borderline Hall of Fame candidate. 60 WAR is a number that’s often thrown around as the dividing line between the great and the really really good, and no matter how you calculate it, Kent falls just a little short, with roughly 56 WAR. Kent was an adequate defensive second baseman at best, and he is – apparently this matters to the voters – kind of a jerk, as well as the world’s worst truck detailer.
Great, got that out of the way. Kent is also one of the best hitting second basemen in the history of the game. That slightly less than 60 WAR? Good for the 17th best among all 2Bs. His 351 career home runs stands as the record at his position, and with a career slash line of .290/.356/.500, a wOBA of .367 and a wRC+ of 123, he was no three true outcomes slugger. Kent received MVP votes in seven seasons, winning in 2000. Hitting cleanup after Barry Bonds during his peak years, Kent was half of one of the nastiest one-two punches in baseball’s recent history, and like his teammate, he deserves to be honored in the Hall of Fame.
33. Graig Nettles, 106 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 64 yes, 40 no, 2 N/A), written by Jason Lukehart of Let’s Go Tribe and Ground Ball With Eyes:
Graig Nettles was one of the greatest power-hitting third basemen in history (his 390 home runs rank 5th among players who spent most of their career at the position), but was overshadowed because he played in the same era as Mike Schmidt, the greatest power-hitting third baseman ever.
Nettles was also one of the greatest defensive third basemen in history (he’s among the top ten in fielding runs for third basemen at Baseball Reference and FanGraphs), but was overshadowed because he played in the same era as Brooks Robinson, the greatest defensive third baseman ever.
The hot corner is the most underrepresented position in Cooperstown, there are only 13 third basemen enshrined. Nettles’ 68 WAR beat the average of those 13 players’ totals, and are the most by any eligible third baseman not already inducted. Nettlesnever received more than 8.3% of the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote, and fell off the ballot after just four years. That’s a shame, because he’s now largely overlooked or unknown to modern fans, and he deserves much better.
34. Joe Torre, 104 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 79 yes, 20 no, 5 N/A), written by Stacey Gotsulias of It’s About The Money:
Joe Torre was elected into the Hall Of Fame last month for his managerial accomplishments (2,236 wins and four World Series titles being among them) but some baseball pundits would argue that Torre has a pretty strong case for going into the Hall of Fame as a player as well.
In 18 years of playing time in a strong pitcher’s era (1960-1977), Torre batted .297/.365/.452/.817, with a .364 wOBA, 129 wRC+ and he amassed a 57.4 WAR. Torre was also a nine-time All-Star and won the NL MVP award in 1971. That year, Torre led the National League with a .363 batting average, and he clubbed 230 hits while driving in 137 runs.
Torre’s WAR total places him 7th all-time for catchers on Baseball Reference’s list which puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Bill Dickey and Mickey Cochrane but the problem with Joe Torre according to the Hall of Stats is that even though he played the most behind the dish, that position only accounts for 41% of his playing time – he also played 36% of the time at first base and 26% of the time third base. And while it could be argued that Torre did a nice job at all three positions, players like that seem to be viewed differently than players who are known for one position for most of their career and it could be why Torre has been overlooked as a player.
35. Minnie Minoso, 100 votes out of 208 (Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? 76 yes, 20 no, 4 N/A):
Former Hall of Fame research librarian Gabriel Schechter wrote for this project last year:
A dynamic player who combined power and speed at a time when it was rare, Saturnino “Minnie” Minoso starred for the Chicago White Sox for the bulk of his lengthy career. The Cuban-born left fielder was the AL Rookie of the Year in 1951, batted .300 in eight All-Star Games, and won three Gold Glove awards. Consistent production was his hallmark. In the 11-year period from 1951-1961, he hit over .300 eight times, scored 90+ runs nine times, topped 100 RBI four times, and was always in double figures in home runs and stolen bases. He also led the AL in getting hit by pitches ten times and in stolen bases and triples three times each, a testament to the speed that electrified the league. The “Go! Go!” chant of White Sox fans early in his career became the mantra of the 1959 AL champs, and even though he had been traded to