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In the middle of the club’s longest run of success since the Big Red Machine of the 1970s, Reds fans are still understandably asking, “Is that all there is?”
Cincinnati has built a consistent winner in a mid-revenue market. Largely thanks to developing talent through their farm system, the Reds have topped 90 wins in three of the past four seasons, after winning 90 or more games just three times in the previous 30 years.
But what they don’t have during this recent run of success is a playoff series victory. Cincinnati was swept by the Phillies in the National League Division Series in 2010, then lost the last three games of the NLDS to the Giants in 2012. The 2013 season ended poorly and abruptly with a five-game losing streak and a decisive loss to the Pirates in the winner-takes-all wild card game. That cost Dusty Baker his job after six years as the team’s skipper, with pitching coach Bryan Price named as his replacement.
The firing of Baker fits into a larger theme for the Reds—the window of success may be closing quicker than they would like. As successful as Cincinnati has been recently, it plays in what suddenly has become baseball’s best division
The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2013 and claimed their fourth pennant in a decade with a younger team (and deeper farm system) than the Reds. Cincinnati also now finds itself chasing the Pirates, who also have a deeper farm system, and at least for now, a younger, less expensive big league club. And while the Cubs have been a disaster at the big league level, they have financial resources and a farm system loaded with impact bats that could mark them as a contender in years to come.
While much of the rest of the division seems to be on the rise, Cincinnati is largely trying to hang on, maintaining success while the big league roster gets significantly more expensive. The Reds spent big to lock up first baseman Joey Votto (signed through 2023 with a team option for 2024), second baseman Brandon Phillips (signed through 2017), outfielder Jay Bruce (signed through 2016) and righthander Johnny Cueto (signed through 2014 with a team option for 2015). Those deals keep the core of the current team together but make it harder to re-sign free agents such as outfielder Shin-Shoo Choo or righthander Bronson Arroyo this offseason. Righthander Homer Bailey is set to hit free agency after the 2014 season.
The farm system has produced players commensurate with upcoming needs. Lefthander Tony Cingrani, a success as a fill-in starter in 2013, looks ready to replace Arroyo in the Reds rotation. If Choo leaves, speedster Billy Hamilton will be ready to replace him in center field as soon as Opening Day. If Phillips is traded as rumored, Hamilton could also step in at second base, a position he has played in the past. And No. 1 prospect Robert Stephenson should follow Bailey as the team’s next homegrown frontline starter.
But beyond that group, the next wave of Reds prospects is significantly thinner than the group that preceded it, which is partly an artifact of picking later in recent drafts. One sign of the organization’s waning farm talent: a .426 winning percentage for its domestic minor league affiliates, worst in baseball. Not one Reds’ domestic minor league team finished the season with a winning record.
When the Reds won 91 games in 2010, their young core made them a team on the rise in a downtrodden NL Central. Now they are fighting to keep the window of opportunity open in a division full of teams built for the long haul.
1. Robert Stephenson, rhp
Born: Feb. 24, 1993.
Robert Stephenson (Photo by Mike Janes)
Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190.
B-T: R-R.
Drafted: HS–Martinez, Calif., 2011 (1st round).
Signed by: Rich Bordi.
Background: Hindsight confirms what scouts thought at the time—the 2011 class of high school righthanders was one of the best in years. Jose Fernandez pitched like an ace for the Marlins in 2013. The Orioles’ Dylan Bundy had Tommy John surgery, but not before reaching the big leagues in 2012, and the Diamondbacks’ Archie Bradley isn’t far away. And then there’s Stephenson, who fell to the 27th pick in part because of the large number of talented high school pitchers in his class. The righthander sometimes gets lost in the shuffle but has some of the best pure stuff in the minors. After a rocky April, Stephenson settled down to allow four earned runs in his next eight starts, including a May 30 gem where he carried a perfect game into the sixth inning with Reds general manager Walt Jocketty in attendance. A hamstring injury kept him out of the Midwest League all-star game and kept him off the mound for most of June, but he quickly recovered to earn a mid-July promotion to high Class A Bakersfield. Just four starts later, he was pitching for Double-A Pensacola.
Scouting Report: Stephenson’s fastball seems to gain a tick each year, going from a 92-95 mph pitch fresh out of the draft to the 94-99 fireball he throws now. He’s done it while toning down a delivery that had some effort in high school but is now relatively free and easy. He has a stab in the back of his delivery, but it has not interfered with his ability to throw strikes. Stephenson added a two-seamer back to his repertoire this year, though his season took off when he went back to pitching more off his four-seamer. His four-seam fastball lacks much life, but because he generally locates it well, it’s still a plus-plus pitch. His 76-80 mph curveball gives Stephenson a second potential 70 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale. He can bury it or throw it for strikes, and it is an excellent two-strike weapon with a big 12-to-6 break. Stephenson has improved his 86-88 mph changeup to the point where it’s an average offering and could end up as a third plus pitch. Stephenson threw a split-finger fastball in high school, but the Reds shelved it. With the quality of his three present offerings, there’s no real pressure to bring it back. He has present average control, but needs to improve his command to be ready for Cincinnati.
The Future: Barring a trade, the Reds’ rotation is set for 2014, but Stephenson could be ready to help as a midseason injury replacement. By 2015, the Reds will be making room for him at the front of its rotation if everything progresses as planned.
2013 Club (Class)
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SV
IP
H
HR
BB
SO
AVG
Dayton (Lo A)
5
3
2.57
14
14
0
0
77
56
5
20
96
.200
Bakersfield (Hi A)
2
2
3.05
4
4
0
0
21
19
3
2
22
.235
Pensacola (AA)
0
2
4.86
4
4
0
0
17
17
2
13
18
.274
Robert Stephenson Player Page
2. Billy Hamilton, of
Born: Sept. 9, 1990.
Billy Hamilton (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
B-T: B-R.
Ht.: 6-1.
Wt.: 160.
Drafted: HS—Taylorsville, Miss., 2009 (2nd round).
Signed: by: Tyler Jennings.
Background: A year after he set the pro stolen base record with 155 steals, Hamilton finished second in the minors with 75 (nine behind leader Micah Johnson of the White Sox). Hamilton made his big league debut as a September callup and quickly became the story of baseball with 13 steals in just 13 games.
Scouting Report: Hamilton’s speed is the stuff of legend. Multiple scouts describe him as the fastest player they’ve ever seen, with one noting that he and others have timed Hamilton at just under three seconds from first to second base on steals, faster than Rickey Henderson was in his prime. Hamilton made a quick transition from shortstop to center field. While his jumps and routes can continue to improve, he has the speed to outrun mistakes. He has an average arm. The questions about Hamilton revolve around his hitting. He will never have more than 30-grade power. Hamilton’s game centers on slapping line drives and dropping bunts, though Triple-A pitchers were able to overpower him at times last year, especially when he hit lefthanded.
Future: If Shin-Soo Choo doesn’t re-sign with the Reds, Hamilton is the heir apparent in center field. He’s ready for the job defensively and on the basepaths, but his bat has not convinced scouts he is ready for the leadoff spot.
2013 Club (Class)
AVG
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
Louisville (AAA)
.256
.308
.343
504
75
129
18
4
6
41
38
102
75
Cincinnati
.368
.429
.474
19
9
7
2
0
0
1
2
0
13
Billy Hamilton Player Page
3. Phillip Ervin, of
Born: July 17, 1992.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 5-11. Wt. 190.
Drafted: Samford, 2013 (1st round).
Signed: by: Ben Jones.
Background: Ervin has hit .300 everywhere he’s played. He did it in in college at Samford (.344 career mark) and with wood bats in the summer collegiate Northwoods (2011) and Cape Cod (2012) leagues. And he did it with the Reds, hitting .331 between stops at Rookie-level Billings and low Class A Dayton.
Scouting Report: Ervin may not have a plus-plus tool, but his scouting report has plenty of 60s on the 20-80 scale. He’s an above-average hitter thanks to a simple short stroke that allows him to square up pitches consistently. He has 60 raw power and is translating that into productive power already. He’s a 60 runner when healthy. Ervin has battled minor injuries since high school, starting with a knee injury as a prep senior. He’s had hand and hamstring injuries (summer after freshman year), a sprained ankle (junior year) and a wrist injury that cut his pro debut short. He has enough speed to play center, but his routes aren’t ideal. He has plenty of arm (he was clocked at 92 mph off the mound at Samford) to play right.
The Future: Ervin was one of the safer bats in the 2013 draft. He may lack star potential, but he should advance quickly. High Class A Bakersfield is a likely starting point, but he could reach Double-A Pensacola in 2014.
2013 Club (Class)
AVG
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
Billings (R)
.326
.416
.597
129
27
42
9
1
8
29
17
24
12
Dayton (Lo A)
.349
.451
.465
43
7
15
2
0
1
6
8
10
2
Phillip Ervin Player Page
4. Jesse Winker, of
Jesse Winker (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
Born: Aug. 17, 1993.
B-T: L-L.
Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 195.
Drafted: HS—Orlando, 2012 (1st round supplemental).
Signed: by: Greg Zunino.
Background: Winker joined his older brother Joey, who plays in the Dodgers organization, in the low Class A Midwest League this season. The Winkers helped add to a recent run for the baseball program at Olympia High, the Orlando school that also produced Mariners shortstop Brad Miller, Yankees outfield prospect Mason Williams and Padres righthander Walker Wieckel. Winker pitched and played center field for Olympia as it won 29 straight at in his senior season, then signed for $1 million.
Scouting Report: Winker is a pure hitter with a short, simple stroke. He’s toned down what was once a picturesque, one-handed, high finish to a more conventional two-handed finish. He projects as a potential plus hitter with plus power. Winker works counts into his favor and uses the whole field. He pulled 10 of his 16 home runs, but hit four the other way and two to straight center field. His modest athleticism, below-average speed, range and arm strength limits him to left field defensively and he projects as likely below-average there.
The Future: In a different organization, Winker would potentially end up as a first baseman, but with Joey Votto in Cincinnati, he’ll stay in left. Scouts are sold on Winker’s hitting ability but question about how athletic he’ll be by the time he reaches the big leagues. He’s ready for the offensive environment of high Class A Bakersfield.
2013 Club (Class)
AVG
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
Dayton (Lo A)
.281
.379
.463
417
73
117
18
5
16
76
63
75
6
Jesse Winker Player Page
5. Yorman Rodriguez, of
Born: Aug. 15, 1992.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 197.
Signed: Venezuela, 2008.
Signed by: Tony Arias.
Background: It’s been a wild ride for Rodriguez, who set a then-Venezuelan amateur record with a $2.5 million bonus in 2008. Since then, he’s had to grow up on and off the field. He disappointed scouts with inconsistent effort through the first few years of his career. When the Reds sent him back to low Class A Dayton from high Class A Bakersfield in 2012, it served as a wakeup call. Now married and a father, Rodriguez appears to have turned a corner in his maturity.
Scouting Report: Rodriguez remains still somewhat raw, but he has two present plus tools and three others that project as potentially average. Rodriguez is a 60 runner, has a 60-65 arm that is the system’s best and has improved into an average defender in right field. He’s not as comfortable in center. Rodriguez has above-average raw power, but his difficulties making contact have limited his production. The biggest question facing him is how much contact he will make. Rodriguez uses the whole field well, but he doesn’t barrel the ball consistently, and his pitch recognition needs to improve.
The Future: Rodriguez justified his place on the 40-man roster with his improvement in 2013. Still just 21, he likely will return to Pensacola, but he could be ready for a September callup. He projects as at least a useful fourth outfielder with the potential to be much more.
2013 Club (Class)
AVG
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
Bakersfield (Hi A)
.251
.319
.470
251
41
63
20
4
9
35
22
77
6
Pensacola (AA)
.267
.329
.385
262
30
70
15
2
4
31
25
76
4
Yorman Rodriguez Player Page
6. Michael Lorenzen, rhp
Born: Jan. 4, 1992.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 180.
Drafted: Cal State Fullerton, 2013 (1st round supplemental).
Signed by: Mike Misuraca.
Background: Lorenzen threw just 45 innings in college, mainly because he was also a center fielder. But whenever he did pitch the game was likely on the line. Lorenzen appeared as a pitcher 42 times, recording 35 saves (a school record) while going 5-0. Lorenzen was draftable as a center fielder, but faced concerns about his ability to hit for average.
Scouting Report: Lorenzen is understandably raw on the mound. His 95-99 mph fastball has surprising life considering its velocity. It’s a plus-plus pitch, and his 80-83 mph slurve projects as plus as well. While that repertoire has served him well in a relief role, Lorenzen has athleticism, competitiveness and a fresh arm, so the Reds want to see if he can start. For the switch to take, he must improve his below-average changeup, the consistency of his slurve and his command.
The Future: The Reds sent Lorenzen to the Arizona Fall League to get more innings as a starter. If they stick with the plan to start him, he’ll likely need to drop back down to high Class A. Long-term, his most likely role is late-game reliever, potentially as a closer.
2013 Club (Class)
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SV
IP
H
HR
BB
SO
AVG
AZL Reds (R)
0
0
0.00
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
.200
Dayton (Lo A)
1
0
0.00
9
0
0
2
8
7
0
2
7
.233
Bakersfield (Hi A)
0
1
6.35
5
0
0
2
6
6
1
5
6
.273
Pensacola (AA)
0
0
4.50
7
0
0
0
6
6
1
6
5
.286
Michael Lorenzen Player Page
7. Carlos Contreras, rhp
Born: Jan. 8, 1991.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 205.
Signed: Dominican Republic, 2008.
Signed by: Richard Jimenez.
Background: Another of a growing line of intriguing short Dominican righthanders the Reds have signed in Johnny Cueto’s wake, Contreras’ ERA stood at 5.98 four years into his pro career. He’s a reminder that it pays to be patient with pitchers with good stuff and poor results, as he’s jumped four levels the last two years while posting a 3.36 ERA. He successfully transitioned back to starting this year, allowing two runs or less while working at least five innings in his last seven starts for Double-A Pensacola.
Scouting Report: Contreras has a plus fastball that generally sits at 92-93 mph as a starter. He’s complemented that with a plus changeup for several years, but this year, he also significantly sharpened his breaking ball, which enabled him to finally neutralize righthanded hitters, who had previously had their way with him. Like several other Reds starters, Contreras’ arm travels a long way to get to the release point, which has hindered his control.
The Future: Contreras’ future is perched precariously on the edge between the rotation and the bullpen. His improved breaking ball makes a case for a future as a starter, but his shaky control makes it more likely he ends up as a power reliever, albeit one with a brighter future now that his slider is sharper.
2013 Club (Class)
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SV
IP
H
HR
BB
SO
AVG
Bakersfield (Hi A)
5
7
3.80
18
18
0
0
90
70
9
41
96
.215
Pensacola (AA)
3
2
2.76
8
8
0
0
42
36
2
21
26
.238
Carlos Contreras Player Page
8. Nick Travieso, rhp
Born: Jan. 31, 1994.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 215.
Drafted: HS—Southwest Ranches, Fla., 2012 (1st round).
Signed by: Tony Arias/Miguel Machado.
Background: As a high school junior, Travieso threw 18 innings as a middle reliever as Archbishop McCarthy High finished No. 1 in the nation. He stepped into the rotation as a senior, helping his team to a fifth-place national finish. The Reds signed him for $2 million, which was $375,000 under the recommended slot.
Scouting Report: When high school or college pitchers transition to the five-man rotation, the quality of their stuff can suffer under the increased workload, and that has happened to Travieso. He generally has shown solid but unspectacular stuff as a pro. After touching 98 mph and sitting 92-95 in high school, he sat at 92 in 2013, pitching anywhere from 89-95 depending on the day. His slider, which pushed the mid-80s in high school, has suffered a little as well. It’s a potentially average pitch, but it sometimes flattens out and lacks the depth it needs. His changeup has improved but still is below-average. His command is advanced for his age, and he does a good job of pitching up and down in the zone to change hitters’ eye levels. Though he won’t get to make use of his bat for a few years, Travieso is an excellent hitter for a pitcher with surprising power.
The Future: Unless his stuff picks back up, Travieso is on a trajectory to be a back-end starter or a reliever. He should be ready for high Class A Bakersfield in 2014.
2013 Club (Class)
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SV
IP
H
HR
BB
SO
AVG
Dayton (Lo A)
7
4
4.63
17
17
0
0
82
83
7
27
61
.263
Nick Travieso Player Page
9. Ben Lively, rhp
Born: March 5, 1992.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 190.
Drafted: Central Florida, 2013 (4th round).
Signed by: Greg Zunino.
Background: Lively turned down a six-figure bonus as an Indians 26th-round pick in 2010. That was Central Florida’s gain, for Lively was a key member of the Knights’ rotation all three years. It worked out for Lively as well, when he signed in 2013 for $350,000 as a fourth-round pick.
Scouting Report: Lively’s ability to mix and locate four average or better pitches simply overmatched hitters in the short stints he threw in his first pro season at Rookie-level Billings. The Reds generally limited him to three innings, allowing Lively’s 90-95 mph fastball to sit 92-93 with good movement. He keeps the ball down in the zone and keeps hitters off-balance, using an average changeup and curveball and a potentially above-average slider. Part of Lively’s success comes from his delivery, which also concerns some scouts. He hides the ball until late in his delivery, but he does so with a long arm stroke and some effort. While Lively had control issues early in his college career, he’s thrown strikes consistently as a pro.
The Future: The Reds found a steal in Tony Cingrani, a lefthander whose delivery caused him to fall in the 2011 draft but hasn’t affected him as a pro. If Lively charts a similar path, the Reds will be thrilled. He’s advanced enough to potentially jump to high Class A Bakersfield.
2013 Club (Class)
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SV
IP
H
HR
BB
SO
AVG
Billings (R)
0
3
0.73
12
12
0
0
37
21
0
12
49
.163
Ben Lively Player Page
10. Tucker Barnhart, c
Born: Jan. 7, 1991.
B-T: B-R.
Ht.: 5-10. Wt.: 185.
Drafted: HS—Brownsburg, Ind., 2009 (10th round).
Signed by: Rick Sellers.
Background: Barnhart’s defensive prowess has been noted for years. Scouts first noticed him when he caught Nationals righthander Drew Storen during Barnhart’s sophomore year. He developed into one of the nation’s best prep defensive catchers thanks in part to his high school coach Patrick O’Neil, a former Rays scout.
Scouting Report: Barnhart’s defense is big league caliber right now. He blocks pitches well, calls a good game and has excellent agility. Thanks to a quick release and a strong arm, he turns in sub-1.9-seconds pop times regularly. He threw out 37 percent of basestealers this year at Double-A Pensacola, which actually is a dip from the 41 percent he has thrown out in his career. At the plate, Barnhart showed better bat control after switching to a shorter, lighter bat, but he’s a bottom-of-the-order spray hitter with well-below-average power. Unlike many switch-hitters, Barnhart is a natural lefthanded hitter, and it shows. He’s never hit well from the right side, and his career average as a lefthanded hitter is more than 100 points higher. He has yet to hit a hit a home run batting righty.
The Future: Barnhart is ready for Triple-A Louisville and is a likely candidate to be added to the 40-man roster this winter. His catch-and-throw skills and contact bat profile him as a second-division regular who could have a long career at a valuable defensive spot.
2013 Club (Class)
AVG
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
Pensacola (AA)
.260
.348
.348
339
31
88
19
1
3
44
45
57
1
Tucker Barnhart Player Page
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