The 2013 World Series should serve as a final reminder that being a closer is less about magical makeup than having a great arm and being in the right place at the right time.
For most of the season, Cardinals righthander Trevor Rosenthal worked the eighth inning. The hard-throwing rookie knew his role: keep the Cardinals close or ahead, then hand the game over to closer Edward Mujica.
Trevor Rosenthal was an inexpensive option for the Cardinals out of the bullpen in 2013. (Photo by Ken Babbitt)
But when a groin injury slowed Mujica in the final week of the regular season, Rosenthal stopped pitching the eighth and started pitching the ninth. He picked up three saves in the final week of the season, then kept the job throughout the playoffs, picking up four saves while throwing 11⅔ scoreless innings.
Rosenthal’s Cardinals made the World Series, but once there, they fell to the Red Sox in six games. Boston’s closer? Koji Uehara, a longtime set-up man who became the club’s closer when Joel Hanrahan blew out his elbow in April. It was the first time Uehara, 38, had ever led a team in saves.
In 2012, Giants righthander Sergio Romo went from valuable set-up man to fill-in closer in August when he took the job from Santiago Casilla, who was closing because Brian Wilson was injured. No problem. Romo allowed one run in 10 postseason appearances while picking up four saves.
In 2011, Jason Motte graduated from two and a half years as a set-up man to become the Cardinals’ closer in September, when he wrested the job from Fernando Salas. A month later, he was under the dogpile of a World Series champion.
You have to go back to Brian Wilson and the San Francisco Giants in 2010 to find a World Series champion that was using the same closer in October that it had planned on using when the season began.
Is it any wonder that the market for paying big money on a free agent closer has largely dried up?
A Changed Game
All around the field, baseball is in a constant state of evolution.
We’ve seen eras when speed and defense are emphasized and others when teams stock their lineups with plodding home run hitters. But no spot has gone through as significant a transformation in the past decade as the bullpen.
Teams are always looking to acquire and retain talent more efficiently. Nowhere is that more true than in the bullpen. Over the past decade, clubs have managed to find more velocity, more strikeouts and fewer walks while also reducing the amount of money and length of contracts in assembling their pens.
Spend less, get more.
Heat Bringers
It’s not surprising to see that five closers reside among the 10 hardest-throwing relievers of 2013. Here are the top 10 ranked by average fastball velocity:
1. Aroldis Chapman Reds 98.3
2. Kelvin Herrera Royals 98.2
3. Nate Jones White Sox 97.7
4. Trevor Rosenthal Cardinals 97.3
5. Craig Kimbrel Braves 96.9
6. Fernando Rodney Rays 96.5
7. Tanner Scheppers Rangers 96.3
8. Jake McGee Rays 96.3
9. Tommy Hunter Orioles 96.2
10. Tom Wilhelmsen Mariners 96.2
Source: Fangraphs.com
HEAT MISERS
Among the softest-tossing relievers in the majors last year you find a number of lefty specialists and sidearmers, but also Giants closer Sergio Romo.
1. Darren O’Day Orioles 85.9
2. Brad Ziegler Diamondbacks 86.1
3. J.P. Howell Dodgers 87.4
4. Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks 87.5
5. Sergio Romo Giants 87.7
6. Darren Oliver Blue Jays 87.7
7. Luke Gregerson Padres 88.2
8. T.J. McFarland Orioles 88.4
9. Troy Patton Orioles 88.9
10. Burke Badenhop Brewers 89.1
Source: Fangraphs.com
If you’re looking for a prototype reliever of 2014, he’s sure to throw hard. The game has seen increased velocity across the board, but nowhere is that more apparent than in the bullpen. In the past 11 years, relievers have seen a 2 mph jump in average fastball velocity. Back in 2002 (the first year that Baseball Info Solutions has data), eight clubs’ average fastball velocity for relievers was less than 90 mph. That year, the Cubs led the majors with a bullpen that averaged 92.5 mph.
Last year, 18 clubs’ bullpens averaged 92.5 mph or better. Relievers for every club in baseball averaged better than 90 mph, and two clubs, the Royals and Reds, topped 94 mph.
“It used to be if you went to the Midwest League game and a reliever threw 93-94 mph, you’d sit up. Now it’s a yawner,” an American League pro scouting director said.
According to data at Fangraphs.com, of the 160 relievers who threw 40 or more innings last year, 47 (29 percent) averaged 94 mph or better with their fastballs. Just 23 (14 percent) averaged less than 90 mph. It was once thought that an 89-91 mph fastball was average velocity. In the bullpen last year, you needed to throw nearly 93 mph to be average.
“If you’re not 95-plus, you’d better have plus-plus command or a trick pitch,” a National League farm director said. “You need to have something to measure up. More and more, these guys are bringing velocity. Now the sixth-inning guys are bringing velocity.”
“You definitely see more velocity,” another AL pro scouting director said. “Even the weaker teams with the worst bullpens are developing and finding relievers.”
The result, as one would expect, is more strikeouts. Last year, relievers struck out 8.29 batters per nine innings, the second-best rate of all time, behind only the 8.37 SO/9 from 2012. That’s an increase of one strikeout per nine innings over just the past decade.
Where teams used to have a closer who could shut down bats during the ninth inning, teams now have turned the seventh through ninth into a hitters’ wasteland. While relievers are generating more strikeouts, they are also walking fewer batters.
Last year’s 3.37 walks per nine innings by relievers was the sixth-best rate since 1900, and the lowest rate of the past 40 years. As a league, relievers’ 3.59 ERA last year was the best mark since 1992. When normalized for the league’s run environment, last year was the seventh-best mark of the past 50 years, while 2012 was the second-best of the past 50 years.
Getting Cheaper
Teams are getting more strikeouts and fewer walks while allowing fewer runs by their bullpens than ever before. At the same time, bullpens are getting less expensive. It’s bad news for relievers that teams have realized that locking them up long term usually is a poor risk. The rise of analytics has also done much to reduce the aura that surrounded closers. Now many teams are much more willing to find a new one every few years.
“There is now so much money in the game that there isn’t any reason to sign relievers to long-term deals,” an NL assistant general manager said, “because the savings you get from signing longer deals just aren’t significant enough for the risk. The reward does not justify the risk, and the availability of proven closers makes short-term deals more sensible and stylish.”
Yes, Mariano Rivera gave the Yankees a shutdown closer for 16 of the past 17 seasons. But as he adjusts to retirement, that era could be leaving with him. Where Rivera was the Yankees closer for more than a decade and Trevor Hoffman handled the Padres’ closer job for 14 of 15 years, few closers now are in position to set down roots.
Mariano Rivera retired after the 2013 season, taking his bullpen longevity with him. (Photo by Tomasso DeRosa)
Craig Kimbrel will enter the 2014 season as the longest-tenured closer in baseball. He’s held the job for three seasons. No other current closer has been his team’s primary ninth-inning man for longer than two years.
With closing roles changing hands so regularly, teams have realized that it’s foolish to lock up relievers to long-term deals. In reality, closers get paid more than set-up men, so you don’t want to end up spending closer money on someone who may end up pitching the seventh or eighth innings.
“I think there might be a paradigm shift as it pertains to relievers, but that can be short-lived,” said David Meter, the agent for Kimbrel. “As creative and innovate as the league can be, it can also be imitative in some respects. Certain teams see other teams have success without that special closer, and there aren’t that many of those guys out there.”
Salary inflation continues to be steady because of the ever-increasing amount of revenue in the game, but closers are now being left out in the cold.
With a major league minimum salary of $500,000, it’s not like any closer is going to have to choose between their second beach home and putting dinner on the table, but the position has seen a significant devaluation in recent years.
Just five years ago, six teams had closers who were making $9 million or more (average annual value) on a deal of three years or more. Rivera, one of the game’s all-time greats, was working under that kind of deal, but so were Francisco Cordero, B.J. Ryan and Francisco Rodriguez.
Now most teams see signing any reliever to a three-year deal or longer as a frighteningly risky decision. Last year, Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell were the only two closers working on contracts that had been three years or longer and paid $9 million or more a year.
Not coincidentally, Papelbon is considered nearly untradeable because of his contract with the Phillies, and Bell has been traded twice in the first two years of his three-year deal, originally signed with the Marlins. (He’s now with the Rays, though the Marlins had to pay $4 million of his salary last year and this year in order to get rid of him.)
Kimbrel, the best closer in the game over the past two seasons, signed a four-year, $42 million extension with the Braves this offseason that contains an option for a fifth year. But his deal is likely to be the exception. Around the game, teams have learned to treat relievers as transient members of the roster.
Of the 32 free agent relievers who have signed big league deals this offseason, 29 have signed for one or two years. More than 50 other relievers with big league experience have had to sign minor league deals.
From 2007-10, five free agent relievers signed new deals that guaranteed them $30 million or more. Since 2010, Papelbon is the only free agent reliever to sign a deal of $30 million or more.
“I think Papelbon was probably the last (of those deals),” said an AL pro scouting director. “People see that and say, ‘Why are we doing this?’ ”
Pack Your Bags
If closers are having to get by on shorter and less lucrative deals, the rank and file of the bullpen have become even more itinerant. Even in a game where every team has large scouting staffs and analytics departments, predicting which pitcher can handle the sixth inning on a regular basis still seems to be a combination of analysis, intuition, observation and luck.
“It’s really hard. It’s hard to separate candidates who look like the same thing,” an AL pro scouting director said. “What gives one guy a leg up on someone else? They are unpredictable . . .
“You bring in a lot of guys. You have inventory and backup plans and as many people as you can. You’re buying more lottery tickets, helping your odds.”
More lottery tickets also prepares teams for the inevitable injuries. Many relievers are in the bullpen because they throw hard with max-effort deliveries. They may dominate for a while, but they aren’t built for durability. A 21-year-old Joel Zumaya frequently touched triple-digits while throwing 83 outstanding relief innings for the 2006 Tigers. He never stayed healthy long enough to top 40 innings again, and by age 25, he’d thrown his last big league pitch.
Brandon Workman (Photo by Mike Janes)
“How many guys stick in a bullpen because of bad arm actions where they will blow out?” an NL pro scouting director said. “There a lot more of those guys in the pen than the starting rotation. (Because of that) you have to get a guy here and there, you have to have arms stashed away.”
Between injuries, ineffectiveness and the general turnover that happens for any team during a season, clubs say they want to have 12-15 reliever candidates on hand when the season begins, including seven relievers on the big league roster with several more options on minor league clubs.
Not all of those backup plans need to be sitting in the Triple-A bullpen. Starting pitching prospects in Double-A and Triple-A can be even more valuable in a pinch. See the work Brandon Workman and Carlos Martinez did in the playoffs last year for the Red Sox and Cardinals.
When it comes to starting pitchers, teams know they are unlikely to find significant help in the minor league free agent and retread market. But for the bullpen, good help is often available. Last year, Kevin Gregg signed a minor league deal with the Cubs after being released by the Dodgers in April. He was serving as Chicago’s closer two weeks later.
“If you look at the last three spots in the bullpen for all 30 teams, that’s 90 jobs. For those 90 jobs, there are 300 decent candidates,” said the AL pro scouting director.
Teams spend more time constructing the bullpen than any other aspect of the big league roster, and that’s logical. With seven players in a typical pen, it’s the largest unit on a 25-man roster. But the ever-shifting roster, thanks to injuries, extra-inning games and general wear and tear, makes it a year-round effort to keep the bullpen stocked.
“There is so much turnover because of injuries and inconsistency,” an assistant general manager said. “It’s a puzzle you are constantly trying to put together . . . Even if it’s not effectiveness, then it’s weather, it’s extra innings. It leaves you shorthanded. You need to be way deeper than your initial wave.”
While teams hope they’ll never have to call on a backup first baseman to become a regular, or find out if their fill-in center fielder can handle the position full-time, they know they will be using significantly more than just the seven relievers who make the club out of spring training.
“Really I’d like to have four or five guys in reserve,” said the assistant GM.
Last year the Red Sox used 22 different relievers at some point in the season to win the World Series. Fifteen threw 10 or more innings. Of the six relievers who pitched in the World Series, just two (Junichi Tazawa and Uehara) were in the club’s bullpen on Opening Day. The story was the same for St. Louis, which used 20 relievers and had 15 who threw 10 or more innings. The Cardinals used seven different relievers in the World Series, but just two (Randy Choate and Rosenthal) were in their pen on Opening Day.
Nowadays, bullpens can be thought of as a relay race. You need guys to step up in April and May to get the season started. Others are going to be needed in June and July. And come September, you may have someone new pitching the ninth.
It’s not the way teams would have designed a bullpen in the 1990s or before, but it’s hard to argue with the results.
Shuffling Closers: Yankees fans used to know that Mariano Rivera was going to be the club’s closer year after year, but most closers today should rent rather than buy. Heading into 2014, Craig Kimbrel is the only projected closer who has held that job for his current club in each of the past three years. No other closer around baseball has held the job with his current club for more than two years. Here are the projected closers for 2014 heading into spring training (with some certain to change) and each team’s saves leaders for the past three years:
Team
Projected 2014
2013
2012
2011
Athletics
Jim Johnson
Grant Balfour
Grant Balfour
Andrew Bailey
Angels
Ernesto Frieri
Ernesto Frieri
Ernesto Frieri
Jordan Walden
Astros
Jesse Crain
Jose Veras
Brett Myers
Mark Melancon
Blue Jays
Casey Janssen
Casey Janssen
Casey Janssen
Frank Francisco
Braves
Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel
Brewers
Jim Henderson
Jim Henderson
John Axford
John Axford
Cardinals
Trevor Rosenthal
Edward Mujica
Jason Motte
Fernando Salas
Cubs
Jose Veras
Kevin Gregg
Carlos Marmol
Carlos Marmol
Diamondbacks
Addison Reed
Heath Bell
J.J. Putz
J.J. Putz
Dodgers
Kenley Jansen
Kenley Jansen
Kenley Jansen
Javy Guerra
Giants
Sergio Romo
Sergio Romo
Santiago Casilla
Brian Wilson
Indians
John Axford
Chris Perez
Chris Perez
Chris Perez
Mariners
Fernando Rodney
Tom Wilhelmsen
Tom Wilhelmsen
Brandon League
Marlins
Steve Cishek
Steve Cishek
Heath Bell
Juan Oviedo
Mets
Bobby Parnell
Bobby Parnell
Frank Francisco
Francisco Rodriguez
Nationals
Rafael Soriano
Rafael Soriano
Tyler Clippard
Drew Storen
Orioles
Tommy Hunter
Jim Johnson
Jim Johnson
Kevin Gregg
Padres
Huston Street
Huston Street
Huston Street
Heath Bell
Phillies
Jonathan Papelbon
Jonathan Papelbon
Jonathan Papelbon
Ryan Madson
Pirates
Jason Grilli
Jason Grilli
Joel Hanrahan
Joel Hanrahan
Rangers
Neftali Feliz
Joe Nathan
Joe Nathan
Neftali Feliz
Rays
Grant Balfour
Fernando Rodney
Fernando Rodney
Kyle Farnsworth
Red Sox
Koji Uehara
Koji Uehara
Alfredo Aceves
Jonathan Papelbon
Reds
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman
Francisco Cordero
Rockies
LaTroy Hawkins
Rex Brothers
Rafael Betancourt
Huston Street
Royals
Greg Holland
Greg Holland
Jonathan Broxton
Joakim Soria
Tigers
Joe Nathan
Joaquin Benoit
Jose Valverde
Jose Valverde
Twins
Glen Perkins
Glen Perkins
Glen Perkins
Matt Capps
White Sox
Nate Jones
Addison Reed
Addison Reed
Sergios Santos
Yankees
David Robertson
Mariano Rivera
Rafael Soriano
Mariano Rivera
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