These are the players who in our view are the consensus top talents for the first two rounds of the draft (plus supplemental rounds), ranked by position.
We’ll be ranking the full BA 500 at BaseballAmerica.com as the June 5 draft draws closer, so check online frequently for even more scouting reports. Reports were written by Aaron Fitt, Clint Longenecker and John Manuel, with additional reporting by Jim Shonerd.
1. Tyler Kolek, Shepherd (Texas) HS
Scouts knew about Kolek as one of the top 2014 targets in Texas when he broke his left arm in a collision at first base in March 2013. The injury ended his junior season, but Kolek kept himself in shape. When he went to the tryouts for Texas’ Area Code Games team in late May, his fastball popped 99. A three-sport star who was drawing interest as a defensive end, Kolek decided to focus exclusively on baseball after the ACG tryout. Kolek then spent the summer establishing himself as the hardest thrower in a draft class full of velocity, and has maintained triple-digit radar gun readings all spring, hitting 100-102 mph regularly. Kolek’s fastball sits 96-98 mph thanks to tremendous strength, coordination in his 6-foot-5, 245-pound body and surprising arm speed. Kolek is very athletic in his delivery has a very long stride, even for his size. Scouts consider Kolek’s consistent top-end velocity unprecedented in the draft era for a high school pitcher. His fastball plays up beyond its pure velocity readings because of its heavy plus life, working downhill with sink. His dense fastball will likely be a groundball-inducing offering when hitters make contact. He throws both a curveball and slider, and the slider is a power pitch in the mid-80s that is his best secondary pitch and shows at least plus potential. His curveball has decent shape but he prefers the slider. He repeats his delivery and throws quality strikes. He has shown a changeup in showcases or in the bullpen but hasn’t needed it in games. Kolek can lose his direction to the plate, working from the far first base side of the rubber and occasionally landing closed. But he has cleaned up his delivery this spring, leading to the consistent velocity. He has performed as expected as a potential top-five pick against small school Texas competition, striking out 60 percent of hitters against 6 percent walks. Scouts struggle think think of a physical comparison for Kolek and that lack of analogous players make scouts wonder how his body will progress as he ages. Strike-throwing ability and the development of his offspeed stuff will be the keys to his development, as he has the chance to develop into a power pitcher that fronts a rotation.
2. Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina
Scouts in the Northeast recall Hoffman as an athlete with some projection who was not ready for professional baseball, with a mid- to upper-80s fastball. He made good on his East Carolina commitment, and three years later, he could become the highest-drafted player in program history despite requiring Tommy John surgery in mid-May. Hoffman has a premium pitcher’s body at 6-foot-4, 192 pounds, with twitchy athletic ability, and his stuff has grown with his body. He broke out in the Cape Cod League, where he ranked as the No. 1 prospect last summer, and pitched well in front of a large scouting crowd at Virginia in February 2014 in his second start. He was having an uneven season until mid-April, when he struck out a career-best 16 in eight one-hit innings against Middle Tennessee State. It was his last start prior to surgery, though. At his best, Hoffman’s athletic body, electric fastball and ability to maintain his velocity evoke Justin Verlander. His fastball sits from 92-96 mph, reaching 97-98, and his two-seamer features above-average sink, life and arm-side run. His changeup and curveball both flash plus, with the changeup being more consistent. He also throws a slider, which usually earns average grades. Hoffman appeared poised to be one of the first seven players drafted, but his late arm injury and surgery cloud his immediate draft future. His athleticism and elite velocity still portend a rosy future if he returns to health, and a team with extra picks will likely take a shot at him.
3. Erick Fedde, Nevada-Las Vegas
A Las Vegas High graduate, Fedde remains a tall, projectable righthander as he was in 2011, when the Padres drafted him in the 24th round. He has pitched in the UNLV rotation for three seasons and gained significant confidence pitching last summer in the Cape Cod League and then with Team USA. Fedde ran his fastball up to 92 mph in high school and pushed 94 last summer. He’s still slender at a listed 6-foot-4, 175 pounds but has added strength and touched 97 mph this spring, more often sitting in the 90-93 range. He repeats his delivery, throws quality strikes with the fastball and commands his slider well. The pitch has taken a step forward this spring, flashing plus at 81-84 mph at times, scraping higher. He has shown the ability to bury it or land it for strikes. Fedde’s changeup plays average. UNLV skipped his turn in a non-conference weekend in early May, which together with his slender frame stoked durability concerns. Those fears came to fruition a week later, when it was disclosed Fedde would have Tommy John surgery. Fedde’s polish and upside would have landed him in the first 10-15 picks, and still could keep him in the first round in a volatile class thanks to his track record.
4. Aaron Nola, Louisiana State
The Blue Jays drafted Nola and his older brother Austin in 2011, and they both turned down the Jays to play the 2012 season together at LSU. While Austin is now playing shortstop at Double-A in the Marlins system, Aaron was having one of the best seasons in college baseball in 2014. Athletic and flexible, Nola manages to stay on top of his pitches and command them despite a mid-three-quarters release point that gives his fastball excellent life. His fastball sits 93-94 mph and touches 95 regularly, and he reached back for 96 in a hyped, head-to-head showdown with Vanderbilt and Tyler Beede in March. Nola’s fastball command ranks toward the top of the college class, as he can pitch to both sides of the plate, though his walk rate has increased (1.3 to 2.3 per nine) this season as he has thrown more sliders. His strikeout rate has jumped even more (8.7 to 10.7 per nine). Nola arrived at LSU with a plus changeup with sink that looked like his fastball out of his hand, but he has lost feel for his change while improving his slider, which was once below-average. Scouts give his slider average or better grades as he has added power to the pitch, but they would like to see a return of his plus change. Nola gets swings and misses in the zone with his fastball, the mark of a starting pitcher, and is one of the safest bets in the class. His command should help the 6-foot-1, 196-pounder move quickly.
5. Touki Toussaint, Coral Springs Christian HS, Miami
Toussaint might have the least baseball experience of any top draft prospect, yet arguably the highest ceiling of any high school pitcher. He’s of Haitian descent and was a soccer player who began playing baseball as a teenager. He gained note in scouting circles as an underclassman by running his fastball up to 97 mph with a hammer breaking ball. While his control was below-average on the showcase circuit last summer, he showed all the raw material. Then he made significant strides as a pitcher this spring. Although he sat 90-93 mph at the National High School Invitational in frigid weather, Toussaint has had numerous starts where he sat 93-96 mph, touching 97 with plus life. He has elite arm speed and whip-like arm action with long arms. His curveball shows flashes of being a plus-plus offering and potentially the best in the class. His hammer, according to TrackMan, had the highest spin rate of any Perfect Game All-American. Toussaint’s changeup improved dramatically and has at least plus potential. Control will be his biggest question mark, as he has struggled to consistently fill up the strike zone. But his elite, quick-twitch athleticism could go toward allaying those concerns, as he is probably the best athlete in the pitching class. Toussaint also has a great pitcher’s body at 6-foot-2, 198 pounds with a high waist, long extremities and large hands. He is also young for the class and won’t turn 18 until after the draft.
6. Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt
Beede was the fourth high school pitcher drafted in 2011, after Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley and Jose Fernandez. The Blue Jays and Beede didn’t come to terms, though, with the Jays offering $2.4 million and Beede seeking $3 million or more. He headed to Vanderbilt and struggled as a freshman but seemed to put things together while earning Southeastern Conference pitcher of the year honors in 2013. Even in his 14-1, 2.32 season, Beede walked 5.6 per nine innings, and he had a rough summer with Team USA, with his delivery getting out of sync when he couldn’t find the strike zone. He has thrown more strikes this spring (3.3 BB/9) but has been more hittable, and scouts give him average control grades with below-average command. Nevertheless, Beede looks the part of a first-rounder at an athletic, powerful 6-foot-4, 215 pounds with a clean arm, and he flashes plus with three pitches. At times he pitches with a well above-average fastball, reaching 97 mph and sitting 92-94. His changeup has been his best secondary offering this spring, earning plus grades, and he throws one of the hardest curveballs in the draft at 80-81 mph, giving him a third plus pitch. Beede has a big personality and rap alter ego (Young Beedah) and was the life of Team USA’s clubhouse despite his struggles last summer. He’s a wild card in the first round whose last starts, particularly at the SEC tournament, will be watched closely as scouts look for signs of improved strike-throwing.
7. Grant Holmes, Conway (S.C.) HS
For the fourth straight season, South Carolina will produce a prep righthander in the top two rounds of the draft. Before this streak started, just two Palmetto prep pitchers had been drafted in that range since the draft went to a single phase. Holmes could even outdo Taylor Guerrieri (No. 24 overall to the National in 2011) as the highest-drafted South Carolina prep pitcher in modern history. Holmes has some of the best present stuff in the class. He came out sitting 93-96 mph, touching 98 early in the season and then 91-94 in some later starts. His power curveball is one of the top breaking balls in the country, a plus pitch that flashes better. On the showcase circuit, Holmes was primarily a two-pitch pitcher with a seldom-used changeup. But the offering has become a legitimate above-average weapon that could become plus. The biggest knock against Holmes is his powerful, broad-shouldered and barrel-chested 6-foot, 216-pound body that offers limited physical projection. Scouts say his fastball can play true up in the zone when he fails to locate down, and he leaves too many high fastballs most games. His delivery with recoil and a long arm swing is unlikely to produce plus control. But he has present stuff and pitchability. Holmes, a Florida signee, is the younger brother of Colby Holmes, a two-time national champion at South Carolina.
8. Sean Reid-Foley, Sandalwood HS, Jacksonville
In 2013, just three Florida prep pitchers went in the top 10 rounds. This year three could go in the first round, and Reid-Foley could be the first. He showed consistent velocity on the showcase circuit and had one of the top outings at East Coast Pro last summer, and he has built on that this spring, showing the makings of a mid-rotation starter. In a recent outing he sat 92-95 mph, touching 97. He throws his fastball with his fingers held together, giving the offering above-average glove-side run. His mid-80s slider is an above-average offering, though he can get on the side of the pitch. He also has feel for a changeup with at least average potential. His fourth offering was a curveball that he used in the summer, flashing average, though he shelved the pitch as his breaking balls began to run together. Reid-Foley is a natural strike-thrower who pounds the zone and mixes his pitches well, and evaluators lauded his competitiveness. Some scouts don’t like the way his arm works in the back, but he is able to repeat his delivery. At 6-foot-2, 216-pounds, the Florida State signee has a large frame and a strong, durable build made to handle innings.
9. Spencer Adams, White County HS, Cleveland, Ga.
Adams is one of the best athletes among the pitchers in this draft, a standout basketball player who has an impressive highlight reel of in-game dunks. The quick-armed Adams has been on an upward trajectory since getting off the hardwood, with his velocity steadily increasing. In a late spring start he sat 93-95 mph, touching 96 with plus fastball life, sink and bat-breaking potential at its best. He has a four-pitch mix, and his mid-80s slider is a true out pitch with at least plus potential. His feel for the changeup has not been there consistently, but it shows at least above-average potential. Although he has some effort in his cross-body delivery and tends to spin off toward first base, Adams is a natural strike-thrower with a chance for above-average control. He can pitch to either part of the plate in the lower half of the zone. At 6-foot-3, 171 pounds, he’s long, loose and lean and offers physical projection, though his frame is somewhat narrow. He is committed to Georgia.
10. Nick Howard, Virginia
Howard had a strenuous sophomore season, getting more than 200 plate appearances as a third baseman and sometime shortstop while logging 61 innings as one of Virginia’s starters. The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder also started in the Cape Cod League last summer, though the quality of his stuff was down. That has not been the case this spring after the Cavaliers have moved him to a relief role, where Howard has developed into an aggressive strike-throwing machine with power stuff and malicious intent. He was averaging 16.6 strikeouts per nine innings and had allowed just 18 baserunners through 23 innings. He pitches aggressively off a fastball that ranges from 93-96 mph and touches higher. Howard’s curveball comes and goes, at times showing power and 12-to-6 shape, but he doesn’t always throw it with conviction. He also throws a slider and changeup at times, all the while employing Virginia’s trademark delivery that starts with bent knees. Howard’s four-pitch mix and athleticism give him a chance to start, but he could zip to the majors as a reliever.
11. Nick Burdi, Louisville
Burdi ranks as the hardest thrower in college baseball, making him a first-round candidate despite being limited to a relief role. Drafted in the 24th round by the Twins out of high school in 2011, Burdi has pitched out of Louisville’s bullpen for three years, becoming the Cardinals’ all-time saves leader. He does it with pure power. He’s athletic with tremendous arm strength and runs his fastball into the 96-100 mph range consistently, maintaining that velocity over two- and three-inning outings. He has reached up to 103, and his fastball earns 80 grades from most scouts on the 20-80 scale. Burdi’s slider gives him a second premium pitch, reaching as high as 92-93 mph and sitting 87-90 with depth. One area scout called it “hard, late and unfair.” Scouts don’t consider his delivery and mentality suited for starting. He has learned to repeat his delivery better and should have enough control to close, and he could reach the major leagues in short order.
12. Jacob Bukauskas, Stone Bridge HS, Ashburn, Va.
Bukauskas headlines a banner crop of high school arms in Virginia after reclassifying as a senior in the fall in an attempt to get to college at North Carolina more quickly. Scouts came in early this spring to do their due diligence on a pitcher they had little history with. After throwing 89-91 mph over the summer, Bukauskas put on 25 pounds of muscle in the last year and brandished premium velocity this spring, sitting 94-97 and touching 98 with the ball jumping out of his hand. His slider is inconsistent but can flash plus. He has not used his changeup in game action frequently, but the pitch shows at least average potential. Bukauskas faces the industry bias against shorter righthanders, as he is 5-foot-11, 200 pounds without much projection. He also shows effort and rigidity in his delivery, which makes some scouts believe his long-term role could be reliever. Opinions of his strike-throwing ability differ significantly, depending on when an evaluator saw Bukauskas, and some scouts believe he will have at least average control. He’s something of a wild card given his limited track record and apparent desire to get to campus. He sent a letter to scouts one month before the draft asking not to be selected because he plans to attend North Carolina.
13. Luke Weaver, Florida State
Florida State produced back-to-back first-round righthanders in 1994-95 with Paul Wilson and Jonathan Johnson, but they haven’t had a righty go in the first round since then, with Nick Stocks being a supplemental first-rounder in 1999. Weaver entered the year as the best bet to end that streak but has seen his velocity back up this spring from its 96 mph peak last season. Slight and athletic at 6-foot-2, 170 pounds, Weaver pitches off an 88-92 mph fastball that peaks higher on occasion but less frequently this year than last year, as scouts report he has lost some of his previous looseness. His fastball has some sink from a three-quarters slot, and his changeup has good deception and sinking action. Weaver’s slider remains a fringy pitch, as it was when scouts saw him last summer with USA Baseball, and his strikeout rate has plummeted from 10.89 per nine (11th in the country last year) to 7.2 this season. However, he has mound presence, above-average control and the competitiveness demanded of a Friday starter for a top program. Weaver has second- or third-round tools with first-round pedigree.
14. Luis Ortiz, Sanger (Calif.) HS
Ortiz was a hard-throwing, soft-bodied hurler entering his junior year. Then he lost 30 pounds over the course of the next year and was one of the most consistent pitchers on the showcase circuit last summer. He worked exclusively out of the stretch, sitting 92-94 mph, touching 95 with regularity and late riding life through the zone. Ortiz was named the World Cup MVP for his role as the closer on the gold medal-winning 18-and-under USA Baseball national team. But he has had an uneven spring, running his fastball up to 96 mph early only to miss time with arm tightness. He has been used irregularly, pitching three times in a five-day stretch in early April. His velocity had bounced back, however, sitting 91-94 in a late April start. Ortiz has an out pitch in his slider, a changeup with average potential and a curveball he is working into game action. The Fresno State commit has an easy delivery and the ball jumps out of his hand from a high three-quarters arm slot. Ortiz has demonstrated advanced strike-throwing ability with the ability to locate well on either side of the plate. The 6-foot, 223-pound Ortiz has a strong, durable build that lacks projection and needs to be monitored over the long run.
15. Jack Flaherty, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.
Last summer, scouts regarded Flaherty as a better prospect at third base thanks to his gap-to-gap stroke and quality infield actions. But he struck out 12 in his 2014 season debut on the mound and quickly convinced scouts that he is a potential late first-round talent as a pitcher. Flaherty’s 6-foot-3, 217-pound frame offers current strength as well as projection, and his arm action is clean and fast, so he figures to add velocity as he matures. He already sits at 88-92 mph and touches 93, and his command and control are advanced for his age. Flaherty has good feel for four pitches, led by a changeup that projects as plus to plus-plus. His 77-80 mph slider can be a swing-and-miss pitch, and he can use his curveball as a get-me-over pitch or occasionally as a chase pitch, because it does have some tightness. Scouts believe the slider has plus potential, giving him a chance for three above-average or better offerings.
16. Michael Kopech, Mount Pleasant (Texas) HS
In one of the most talent-barren years in Texas in recent memory, Kopech has shown arm strength that would stand out against any crop. He had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit that ended on a high note with one of the top showings at the Under Armour All-American Game, when he struck out out Monte Harrison, Michael Gettys and Alex Jackson in succession. A loose, flexible athlete with a quick arm, Kopech showed better velocity entering the spring, going from 89-92 mph at multiple events last summer to 92-96, touching 98 this spring. The ball jumps out of his hand and gets on hitters quickly. The Arizona commit’s fastball also has plus life with cutting action and sink that will produce ground balls. Kopech has multiple breaking balls and his slider shows above-average potential. He has feel for a changeup with average potential. Kopech has a high-maintenance, rotation-heavy delivery that can be tough to repeat. He also has rigidity to the front side of his delivery. These factors cause some scouts to wonder if the delivery and strike-throwing ability will play in the rotation, though he has the stuff to do so, is an impressive athlete and has thrown strikes this spring. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound Kopech has one of the best pitching bodies in the draft with wiry strength.
17. Joe Gatto, St. Augustine Prep, Hammonton, N.J.
Gatto is arguably the most talented New Jersey prep righthander since Rick Porcello (first round) in 2007 and Jason Knapp (second round) in 2008 and possesses all the requisite physical traits to become a successful starter. The 6-foot-3, 204-pound Gatto has an ideal pitcher’s body with present strength (especially in his lower half), athleticism and long extremities. Gatto’s fastball has sat 89-93 mph this spring, touching 95 with the ball jumping out of his hand from good extension out front. He pitches off his fastball with plus life, getting downhill plane, arm-side run and sink on his groundball-inducing, bat-breaking heater. He shows enough feel for spin and shape to project a slightly above-average curveball. Scouts would like to see him command his curveball better and land it in the zone more frequently. His changeup showed flashes of being an above-average pitch on the showcase circuit and continues to show potential, although it has played below that this spring. Gatto as an easy, deliberate delivery with the raw materials necessary to throw strikes, but his control has not been consistent this spring. Gatto is old for the class and will be 19 a week after the draft, which would make him a draft-eligible sophomore in two years if he ends up at North Carolina.
18. Michael Cederoth, San Diego State
Cederoth showed 94-96 mph heat at his best coming out of a San Diego area high school in 2011, but his delivery, command and maturity all needed work, so scouts were content to let him develop at San Diego State. He flashed great promise in his first two seasons at SDSU, but lapses of control kept him from achieving greatness as a starter, and the Aztecs moved him to the bullpen after one poor start this spring. He has flourished in a relief role, attacking hitters with an explosive fastball that sits easily at 94-97 mph and touches 98-100. Sometimes the heater is straight, but other times it cuts, whether by design or not. Cederoth tried to throw four pitches as a starter, but streamlining his repertoire has also helped his slider improve out of the bullpen, where it has shown later, harder break at 83-85 mph. His delivery still isn’t pretty, and his walk rate (5.5 per nine innings this spring) remains a red flag, so he’ll likely remain a reliever in pro ball. But he has big league closer upside, and he was generating late first-round buzz down the stretch this spring.
19. Scott Blewett, Baker HS, Baldwinsville, N.Y.
Blewett is one of the top arms in a strong year for Northeast prep pitching. New York has not had a prep righthander go in the top two rounds of the draft since Steve Karsay (first round) in 1990, but Blewett could break that streak. He was one of the fastest-rising prep players to end the fall last year after a strong showing in Jupiter. The 6-foot-6, 213-pound Blewett looks the part in a uniform and has a major league body with strength throughout his extra-large frame. He is a former hockey player and offers surprising coordination, polish and athleticism for an arm of that stature from the Northeast who is also young for the class, recently turning 18. His fastball has sat 89-92 mph, touching 94 in the first few innings of some starts before slipping into the high 80s. Blewett leverages his fastball downhill with good extension out front and gets riding life through the zone. His curveball is a potential plus offering, which he pairs with a changeup that has average potential. The St. John’s commit has average control, though he can occasionally be a short-armer.
20. Garret Fulencheck, Howe (Texas) HS
A former basketball player from a small town of less than 5,000 people, Fulencheck was not a mainstay on the showcase circuit last summer and made his first significant national appearance in the fall at the Perfect Game World Wood Bat Championship. The athletic Fulencheck has improved since then and has had a strong spring, standing out in what is possibly the worst draft class for the Lone Star State in the last decade. He has a quick arm and is a power pitcher with a heavy 89-93 mph fastball that has touched 95. His groundball-producing fastball plays up beyond its pure velocity because of its life, arm-side run and sink from a high three-quarters arm slot. While his delivery features some effort, he shows the makings of strike-throwing ability. Scouts like that when Fulencheck misses his spot he often misses down in the zone. His top secondary pitch is a mid-80s slider that shows at least average potential. The progress of his changeup will be a key part of his development. The 6-foot-4, 185-pounder has a good pitcher’s build with long extremities, room to get stronger in his upper body and a strong lower half. He has committed to Dallas Baptist.
21. Cam Varga, Cincinnati Hills Academy, Loveland, Ohio
Varga was one of the top underclass shortstops in the country while attending a Florida high school, but he was more interested in pitching and ran his fastball up to 94 mph at the Tournament of Stars as a rising junior. His only showcase outing last year impressed, when he showed a 92-95 mph fastball and hammer curveball at Perfect Game National. But biceps tendinitis kept him out most of the summer and fall, including the Perfect Game and Under Armour All-American games. His velocity has not been as consistent this spring. Varga often touches 93-94 mph before settling in at 89-91 in the middle innings of games. In his most recent start of the season, Varga held his velocity better, sitting 90-94. His curveball is one of the better breaking balls in the amateur ranks, with at least plus potential. Not only is it an out pitch, but he also commands it well. Varga has not used a changeup often this spring but his athleticism will likely make it at least a serviceable offering. He has an athletic delivery and throws strikes. The North Carolina commit is the son of a professional basketball player who played in Europe. Varga is one of the older prospects in the class and will be 20 by the end of the 2014 minor league season because of transferring schools across countries when he was younger.
22. Brett Graves, Missouri
The 6-foot-1, 173-pound Graves appeared to be losing steam as the college season wound down, and with Missouri in last place in the Southeastern Conference, he’ll have no postseason to make up ground. He was a 26th-round pick of the hometown Cardinals in 2011 but struggled his freshman season with command, walking more than he struck out. He’s come on the last two seasons and has shown excellent command of a plus fastball this spring for the Tigers. Graves pitches at 94-96 mph at times but usually cruises along at 92-93 with late life at the plate, especially when he keeps the pitch down. A fan of former Missouri pitcher Max Scherzer, he tries to emulate Scherzer’s delivery, which has helped him incorporate his lower half more. Graves throws both a slider and curveball, and scouts prefer the curve, which has above-average potential if not better. Graves’ changeup is fringy but he’s athletic and repeats his delivery as well as fielding his position very well. He lacks a knockout punch among his secondary pitches, which limits his ceiling to that of a No. 4 starter, unless his curve takes off.
23. Chris Oliver, Arkansas
With a glut of Friday night arms to see in a pitcher-heavy draft, scouts have often flocked to see Oliver pitch on Sundays for Arkansas. He was a 27th-round pick out of high school in 2011 by the Orioles and legendary late scout Larry Chase, then pitched sparingly his first two seasons for Arkansas, logging just 36 innings. He earned a weekend rotation spot this year with flashes of brilliance, such as eight shutout innings and 10 strikeouts against South Carolina, around stretches of inconsistency. Oliver has an electric arm, having sat in the 94-97 mph range with his fastball in relief outings in the past. His lanky 6-foot-4, 180-pound frame could stand to add strength, as he often sits 92-94 mph as a starter before losing velocity and falling into the upper 80s. Oliver’s slider flashes plus as well, and he’s learned to incorporate an improved changeup that flashes average. His lack of mound time shows when he gets out of whack mechanically, as he’s not experienced enough to make adjustments himself. Oliver is a low-mileage SEC arm with upside, though some evaluators go in and just see a future reliever. A team could take him and try to start him as early as the second round.
24. Jake Stinnett, Maryland
Stinnett came to Maryland from California as a position player, starting 40 games at third base in 2011. He hit just .174 (though he did hit five home runs) and also pitched five times, earning two saves, but he made just eight appearances in 2012. Stinnett has a pin in his elbow stemming from an injury at a younger age, but he has pitched with it for years. He pitched well in a relief role in 2012 in the New England Collegiate League and was MVP of the team’s fall World Series. He started 2013 as the closer but moved into the rotation eventually, going 6-5, 2.83 and reaching 93 mph. Stinnett’s stuff has continued to trend upward this spring, as he threw a no-hitter in February, dominated a head-to-head matchup in March with Carlos Rodon and North Carolina State, and has reached 97 mph with his fastball, which usually sits 92-95 with above-average life. He gets extension in his delivery and has a pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. His hard 78-83 mph slider is his preferred second pitch, with a too-firm, little-used changeup also in his repertoire. Stinnett is a senior but also a legitimate top-three rounds talent with something left in the tank due to his relative inexperience as a pitcher.
25. Austin DeCarr, Salisbury (Conn.) School
A year after being bypassed as a Massachusetts high school senior, DeCarr is likely to go in the top three rounds after a year at prep school. DeCarr, who is also one of the top high school quarterbacks in the Northeast, had a bone spur removed from his throwing elbow in the fall of his junior year and his fastball velocity diminished for his senior year, when he was throwing mostly 85-88 mph. His velocity increased shortly after the draft as a mainstay on the showcase circuit who was set to attend Salisbury Prep as a postgraduate student. He had a strong outing at East Coast Pro, touching 94 mph, and many teams with extra draft bonus pool money made attempts to sign DeCarr. He continued to improve over the winter working with renowned trainer Eric Cressy and came out this spring touching 96 mph and sitting 90-93 regularly. At his best, DeCarr can sit 92-94 mph with downhill plane from a high-energy delivery and high three-quarters arm slot. The Clemson commit has maintained his velocity better this spring, especially from the stretch, which was a problem in the summer. He has an out pitch hammer curveball with 11-to-5 tilt that has plus potential. His third offering is a seldom-used (or needed) mid-80s changeup that is a below-average offering. In the elite class of Northeast pitchers who have large, projectable physiques, DeCarr is more of a finished product with impressive physical strength at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds. He will be 19 on draft day because of his postgraduate year. He has pitchability and control of his fastball, allowing scouts to project average control. His fastball/curveball combination gives him the floor of a power bullpen arm, so the development of his changeup and command will likely determine whether he can end up in a rotation.
26. Keith Weisenberg, Osceola (Fla.) HS
A loose, projectable and high upside arm with athleticism, Weisenberg has had an uneven spring but has shown well recently and could make a strong final push at Florida’s high school all-star game in Sebring. The 6-foot-5, 195-pound Weisenberg exemplifies the term “projectable pitcher” with an extra-large frame, lanky build and sloped shoulders atop a high, trim waist. His velocity was down early in the season but returned to form in recent weeks, sitting 90-92 mph, touching 94 after bumping 95 in the fall. The ball jumps from Weisenberg’s hand and he pitches off a fastball with plus life. It plays up beyond its pure velocity readings with downhill plane, arm-side run and sink. Weisenberg, who spots up effectively to both sides of the plate, has a minimal-effort delivery with a loose arm that looks like he is playing catch and will likely allow him to have above-average control. His slider has been inconsistent this spring, flashing plus potential but often playing below that level. Weisenberg’s third offering, a changeup, shows average potential. Although his talent could put him in play in the top two rounds, his commitment to Stanford is a complicating factor.
27. Chris Ellis, Mississippi
The Dodgers drafted Ellis in the 50th round in 2011 out of Birmingham’s Spain Park High, and Ellis had a strong freshman season for Ole Miss after not signing. He struggled as a sophomore (5.57 ERA, 21 IP) as the Rebels’ season spun out of control, but he made up for lost time with 38 innings for Cotuit in the Cape Cod League. Ellis seized the Friday starter role for Ole Miss in the fall and has gone to the post every week, winning all five of his decisions in Southeastern Conference play through eight league starts. At his best, Ellis pitches with a 90-93 mph fastball that reaches 95, and he uses a high arm slot to deliver a hard curveball at 81-82 mph that earns some raves, though most scouts consider both pitches above-average rather than true plus. At 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, Ellis has a good pitcher’s body, but his high slot tends to limit the life on his fastball and average changeup. He has solid control but lacks precise command and hasn’t learned to finish hitters yet, leading to a pedestrian 5.7 K/9 ratio. He profiles as a No. 4 starter.
28. Cobi Johnson, Mitchell HS, Trinity, Fla
The son of the longtime Blue Jays minor league pitching coordinator Dane Johnson, Cobi is an advanced, polished arm with a high baseball IQ. Johnson had a strong summer on the showcase circuit but he has missed time this spring due to elbow inflammation. But he has looked healthy in two starts since his return. His fastball has been 87-90, touching 92 this spring, a tick lower than expected. Johnson creates tough angles and deception for hitters, hiding the ball well from a cross-body delivery that starts on the far third base side of the rubber. He gets downhill plane from a high three-quarters arm slot and pitches in the lower half of the strike zone. His plane and fastball life produced groundballs in drove on the showcase circuit. Johnson throws with ease and projects to have plus control, capable of locating well to both sides of the plate. The Florida State commit projects to have a plus curveball and at least an average changeup. The 6-foot-4, 188-pound Johnson has a lean, trim build that offers projection. He could make a strong move back up draft boards with a strong showing at the Florida high school all-star game in Sebring at the end of May. Evaluators have said that Johnson’s signability has been tough to gauge.
29. James Norwood, Saint Louis
Norwood has followed an atypical road to the draft, hailing from New York City’s All Hallows High in the Bronx and then attending Saint Louis, which never has produced a first-round pick. Last year was the first time since 1982 that a Billikens player went in the first 10 rounds, and Norwood has a chance to be the school’s first second-rounder since 1976. He also could be its first big league alum in the draft era thanks to a strong body at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, and a plus fastball. A reliever as a freshman, Norwood saw an elbow strain end his sophomore year in March and he didn’t pitch in summer ball. However, he touched 97 last fall and has continued to do so this spring, usually sitting 93-95 mph with his fastball when he’s at his best. He sinks the pitch and gets some arm-side run as well. Previously considered an arm-strength future reliever, Norwood has shown better pitchability this season, throwing solid fastball strikes and mixing in a curveball, cutter-type slider and changeup. Some scouts like his changeup while others prefer his curveball as his better secondary pitch. Norwood needs innings and experience most to help determine if he can be a future No. 3 or No. 4 starter or if he has to move to a bullpen.
30. Bryce Montes De Oca, rhp, Lawrence (Kansas) HS
Kansas has produced only three top-three round prep pitchers in the last three decades, but Montes De Oca’s power stuff puts him in contention to be the fourth. Montes De Oca burst onto the national scene in October 2012 when the 6-foot-8 rising junior ran his fastball up to 95 mph at the World Wood Bat Championships in Jupiter, Fla. He underwent Tommy John surgery early in the spring of his junior season, missing the entire showcase circuit. Montes De Oca returned to game action this spring on the one-year anniversary of his surgery, brandishing a 94-97 fastball that touched 98 on a 35-pitch limit. He has not maintained this premium velocity throughout the spring, sitting 90-93 in one start. Montes De Oca has a heavy fastball with sink and arm-side run when down in the zone. His curveball shows the makings of an average offering and will need to be tightened for evaluators to project more. While he has shown feel for a changeup, the offering is seldom used in game action. The 6-foot-8, 265-pounder is an imposing physical presence with strength throughout his extra-large frame and long extremities. Scouts say that although he has looked strong and durable this spring, he will have to watch his weight going forward. His body type is one with very little historical antecedence at the top of the draft or from the high school ranks. The last three high school pitchers who were taller than 6-foot-7 to go in the top two rounds of the draft (Sean West, Chris Volstad, Matt Smoral) averaged 203 pounds with a high-water mark of 220. The majority (82 percent) of tall pitchers (6-foot-8 or taller) to reach the majors have come from the college ranks. Big pitchers often face questions about their strike-throwing ability, and the Missouri commit will be no different, especially with a stab in his arm action, tilt in his delivery and a head snap. But his raw power stuff is among the best in the 2014 class.
31. Dylan Cease, rhp, Milton (Ga.) HS
A preseason first team All-American, Cease has been sidelined since early March with an elbow injury. He has been throwing since his velocity dipped into the mid-80s during a chilly, early season game, and he hopes to throw a few bullpens before the draft. Cease gained national recognition as a junior at the National High School Invitational in 2013, when he ran his fastball up to 96 mph. Cease and his twin brother, Alec, led Milton to a state title as juniors. Cease had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit, touching 97 mph but struggling to consistently throw strikes or show a plus breaking ball. Cease came out strong this spring, sitting 92-95 mph and touching 98 with the ball jumping out of his hand from a very quick arm. His curveball showed better in the spring than it had on the showcase circuit. The pitch flashes above-average, but he needs to become more consistent at repeating his best breaking balls. His third offering is a changeup that shows average potential. Cease has some effort to his delivery and he tends to rush, leaving his arm dragging. A Vanderbilt signee, Cease’s injury makes him something of a wild card on draft day.
32. Keaton McKinney, rhp, Ankeny (Iowa) HS
McKinney, a two-way player as a first baseman and righthander for Team USA, drove in the game-winning run in the 18U World Cup title game against Japan. Despite his aptitude with the bat, his pro future lies on the mound as a big, physical righthander with strike-throwing ability and an out-pitch changeup. McKinney has an extra-large frame and strong, physical build at 6-foot-4, 223 pounds. He has a whip-like arm action and the ball jumps out of his hand with some deception. McKinney, pitching in the Iowa Perfect Game League this spring, has touched 94 mph with his velocity ranging from 87-93, sitting around 89-92. His fastball plays up with downhill plane and plus life, and heavy arm-side run. McKinney was taught his changeup by fellow Iowan Jeremy Hellickson and the pitch is one of the best in the high school ranks. He has tremendous feel for the changeup, which grades at least plus, and he gets heavy usage out of it. His curveball has flashed average but consistently plays below that. The pitch can morph into a slider at the higher end of its velocity range. The Arkansas commit is a strike-thrower who has the potential for at least average control. He does have an elbow lift in the back that scouts are not fond of. The whole package adds up to a starter skill set and he has a chance to go in the top three to four rounds.
33. Spencer Turnbull, rhp, Alabama
A Mississippi prep product, Turnbull has been a key piece of Alabama’s turnaround as a program since his freshman season, when the Crimson Tide won just 21 games and finished in last place in the Southeastern Conference. He’s grown from a part-time starter that season into the staff workhorse and ace the last two seasons, with a power repertoire and improved delivery. Turnbull has a physical frame that suggests a mid-rotation starter at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, though his arm action and somewhat violent delivery are more reminiscent of a reliever. Turnbull has below-average command but throws quality stuff that’s hard to square up, with a four-seam fastball that reaches 97 mph and sits 90-95. He also throws a hard, heavy two-seamer, and the Tide coaching staff compares him favorably to current Brewers farmhand Jimmy Nelson. Turnbull has improved the spin on his breaking ball, honing it into more of a power slider than the hybrid it used to be. He also throws a cutter and changeup, though neither is consistent. While his delivery is a bit smoother than it used to be, Turnbull projects as a reliever for most scouts, which likely pushes him into the third round of the draft.
34. Zech Lemond, rhp, Rice
A Houston product, Lemond was an unsigned 50th-round pick of the Pirates in 2011 before staying in town to attend Rice. He struggled with command in a limited role as a freshman but burst into prominence as a sophomore, helping the Owls reach the super-regional round while breaking the school saves record set by David Aardsma and Tony Cingrani. Rice extended Lemond late last season, allowing him to toss 6 2/3 innings during the Conference USA tournament and in a start on three-days’ rest against Oregon in the regional final. Lemond opened this year as a reliever and impressed scouts at the Astros College Classic in March, sitting 94-96 mph with a plus curveball in a three-inning stint against Texas Christian. He moved into the rotation the next week to start conference play after staff ace Jordan Stephens had Tommy John surgery, but he left a start April 4 with a sore arm. Lemond pitched in the low-to-mid 90s even as a starter, holding his velocity for five-to-six innings. Lemond’s arm action is long, but the 6-foot-4, 200-pounder previously showed the athleticism to repeat his delivery. His injury and arm action likely profiles him as a reliever, and he has the two plus pitches to make an impact out of the bullpen.
35. Daniel Gossett, rhp, Clemson
A 16th-round pick out of high school by the Red Sox, Gossett didn’t sign and has shouldered a heavy burden in three seasons at Clemson. He finished his freshman season as the team’s ace, then won 10 games as a sophomore. He’s been even better as a junior, particularly down the stretch, when he tossed at least seven innings in seven consecutive starts. Durability is a concern with Gossett, who is smaller than his listed 6-foot-1, 185 pounds. He has taken the summer off each of the last two years and has yet to log more than 100 innings in a season. Gossett lacks physicality but has a quick arm that produces intriguing stuff. He’s thrown both a slider and curveball during his college career, and scouts greatly prefer the curveball, with some giving it plus grades. His fastball touches 95 mph but usually sits more in the 88-93 mph range, and he struggles to consistently hold his velocity. His delivery gives him some deception, though scouts wonder if he’ll be able to repeat that funky motion. While Gossett has a fringy, fairly effective changeup, most scouts consider him a future reliever due to his size.
36. Wyatt Strahan, rhp, Southern California
Strahan has intrigued scouts with his arm strength and physicality since his high school days, but his control held him back in his first two collegiate seasons, during which he posted a combined 63-59 strikeout-to-walk mark. His feel for pitching took a step forward in the fall, when he generated some buzz among scouts for touching 97 mph and flashing a good breaking ball. He has held down a job in USC’s weekend rotation all spring, going 4-4, 3.59 with 69 strikeouts and 34 walks in 83 innings. His fastball sits comfortably at 92-93 mph and regularly touches 95-96. He has a physical build at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, with broad shoulders and a strong lower half, but he has a short stride and an upright delivery, which hinders his command and leads to some long-term durability concerns. He flashes a plus curveball with 11-to-5 break that has more depth when he throws it in the high 70s, but can reach 82-83 mph. Some scouts also say his changeup flashes average, but he uses it sparingly. His delivery and lack of fine command likely make him a better fit in a relief role at the next level.
37. Jordan Brink, rhp, Fresno State
Brink has an infielder’s body at a listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds. He began his Fresno State career as a lefthanded hitter, playing outfield and the corner infield spots. He primarily played third base in the Alaska League in 2012 and was seen as a decent hitting prospect, but his arm earned him time on the mound as a sophomore. Though he gave up a walk-off home run to Stanford in his first college appearance, he progressed as a sophomore into a starting role, and the athletic, quick-armed righty has continued progressing as a junior. He threw from a low three-quarters arm slot in 2013 and reached 96 mph in the fall, but he’s thrown more from an over-the-top slot this spring. His fastball has backed up velocity-wise, sitting 91-93 mph early this year and dropping into the average range as he’s reached 76 innings, by far the most of his career. The higher slot also has aided Brink in throwing his power spike curveball, which at its best reaches the mid-80s. Brink remains raw thanks to his relative inexperience as a pitcher, but he’s athletic and has flashed two plus pitches. Some scouts dream on the combination and see him as a starter waiting to be molded in pro ball. Others would like to see him return to his lower slot, hoping for a return of the 96s and his previous breaking ball, a slider. His late velocity drop could hurt his draft position a bit, but he showed second-round talent at his best.
38. Jake Cosart, rhp, Seminole State (Fla.) JC
After going undrafted as a 6-foot-1, 145-pound outfielder out of Texas, Cosart attended Duke, where he redshirted and then did not throw a pitch in game action before transferring to Seminole State. Jake’s older brother Jarred was a teammate of Astros lefthander Brett Oberholtzer, who attended Seminole and helped the younger Cosart reach campus. Cosart, a plus athlete who has gained strength to be 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, has elite arm speed and touched 98 mph in the fall, though his fastball has played at 92-95 with life this spring. His curveball shows above-average potential at its best, but has not been consistent and offers a large velocity separation. Given Cosart’s hand speed, some evaluators believe his newly added slider could become his best breaking ball. Both pitches have a ways to come. He offers a changeup that gives him enough of a secondary mix to be sent out in the minors as a starter, though some believe his best long-term role will be in the bullpen. Improved strike-throwing ability will also be a key for the 20-year-old, but he is an athlete with bloodlines and has some of the best arm strength in the class.
39. Ryan Castellani, rhp, Brophy Prep (Phoenix)
Castellani has been a known entity in scouting circles for some time, showcasing draftable stuff for the last three years and showing well at the Tournament of Stars as an underclassman. While his stuff has not progressed quite as much as scouts who saw him two years ago had hoped, he has present stuff, pitchability and an ideal pitcher’s body. After touching the mid-90s early in the spring, Castellani has settled in at 88-92 mph, similar velocity to what he showed as an underclassman. His fastball plays up with downhill plane, heavy sink and arm-side run at its best. He is a strike-thrower who can locate to both sides of the plate with the potential for at least average control. He has a four-pitch mix, with both his slider and changeup flashing above-average at their best, while his curveball shows average potential. His secondary stuff has some inconsistencies and will need to be sharpened. At 6-foot-3, 198 pounds with broad shoulders and long extremities, the Arizona State commit offers a projectable physique with some present strength.
40. Trey Supak, rhp, La Grange (Texas) HS
The state known for producing hard-throwing righthanders is fallow compared to its historical standards, but Supak is one of the few in Texas who has taken a step forward this spring. The 6-foot-4, 209-pounder has a projectable, athletic frame with long levers. After working in the high-80s at the Area Code Games, Supak has mostly been 89-92 mph this spring, touching 94, although his velocity fell to the late-80s toward the end of some outings. Supak, who has a loose, easy arm and threw from nearly an overhand slot over the summer, gets downhill plane from a high three-quarters slot and long stride, though his straight fastball has below-average life. He has shown feel for spinning a curveball that has least average potential, flashing better. His changeup is his third offering but also offers average potential, as does his control. Supak, who attends the same school that produced Homer Bailey, is committed to Houston, where his uncle was an All-American.
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