The World Series is over, and that means baseball fans have to wait five long, cold months before Opening Day 2016. Fortunately, November also signals the beginning of the most entertaining month of action for some statheads — Hot Stove Season.
Free agency is mere hours away, with players free to sign with any MLB team on Nov. 7. The PointAfter staff loves this time of year. Seeing your favorite team ink new players sparks a sense of hope and longing for next season, even if everything you saw on the field this year only brought you down.
So, as I did for the NBA, I’ve created a metric called Free Agent Quotient (FAQ) that sets out to quantify the value all these free agents will bring to their new squads in 2016 and beyond. A player’s WAR this season and cumulative WAR between 2011-15 is included in the formula, as well as their age.
FAQ operates on a rough 0-100 scale, with any players above zero projected to be above-replacement level contributors in the future. The formula is linear by WAR standards, in that a player with an FAQ of 20 should be expected to accumulate roughly twice as much WAR going forward as a player with an FAQ of 10. Anyone with a FAQ above 50 is a surefire All-Star.
Players can land outside of the 0-100 scale, of course. For example, Barry Bonds entered free agency as a 27-year-old in 1992, fresh off a five-year run in which he averaged 8.2 WAR each season, including a 9.0 mark during his last year in Pittsburgh. His FAQ at that time comes out to 113.1, and one could easily argue he lived up to that lofty projection, even before he was aided by PEDs. During his first year with the San Francisco Giants, Bonds led MLB in home runs (46), on-base percentage (.458) and slugging percentage (.677).
On the other end of the scale, Skip Schumaker ranks dead last among the 169 players projected to become free agents on Saturday, with a scorching FAQ of -26.3.
Before we get onto the rankings, let me repeat: FAQ is meant to project how well a player will perform in the future. So don’t get too upset if you see a few aging veterans ranked lower than their previous performance might dictate.
In addition to the ranking the 25 players with the highest FAQs, I’ve predicted where each player will end up when all the ink is dried and Spring Training kicks off. Until then, baseball fans will have to subsist on imagining how the league’s landscape will shape up for the 2016 season.
Honorable Mentions
40. Joaquin Benoit (7.2 FAQ)
39. Tyler Clippard (7.6 FAQ)
38. Chris Young (7.8 FAQ)
37. Alexei Ramirez (8.4 FAQ)
36. Nori Aoki (9.5 FAQ)
35. Juan Uribe (9.5 FAQ)
34. Marlon Byrd (9.7 FAQ)
33. Matt Wieters (10.5 FAQ)
32. Daniel Murphy (10.6 FAQ)
31. Chase Utley (12.2 FAQ)
30. Mike Leake (12.9 FAQ)
29. Gerardo Parra (13.2 FAQ)
28. Shane Victorino (13.3 FAQ)
27. Scott Kazmir (14.8 FAQ)
26. David Freese (15.2 FAQ)
#25. Denard Span
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 0.8 (55th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 13.9 (19th)
Free Agent Quotient: 16.3
2016 Team Prediction: Oakland A’s
Span had an injury-plagued campaign in 2015 that ended prematurely due to hip surgery. He should still be a coveted commodity on the open market due to his speed and ability to capably play either center or left field.
#24. Darren O’Day
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 2.8 (14th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 9.6 (35th)
Free Agent Quotient: 16.7
2016 Team Prediction: Minnesota Twins
O’Day has quietly been one of MLB’s most effective relievers over the past four seasons, logging a robust 1.92 ERA in 263 innings for Baltimore while compiling a 23-8 record out of the bullpen.
The 32-year-old sidearmer deservedly earned his first All-Star nod in 2015, and should easily net a three-year deal on the open market.
#23. Marco Estrada
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 3.6 (11th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 7.9 (46th)
Free Agent Quotient: 17.8
2016 Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Estrada certainly helped himself out with an impressive year in Toronto. He pitched to a career-best 3.13 ERA, flirted with a no-hitter multiple times and won the Blue Jays two playoff games in three starts, giving up five runs in 19.1 innings.
But how much stock will GMs put into a breakout that occurs at 31 years old?
#22. Asdrubal Cabrera
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 1.7 (24th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 12.1 (24th)
Free Agent Quotient: 18.2
2016 Team Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego has a glaring need at shortstop, and Cabrera would fit the bill as a decent defender and table-setter.
#21. Dexter Fowler
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 2.2 (19th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 10.9 (27th)
Free Agent Quotient: 18.3
2016 Team Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The player with the highest similarity score (a metric created by Baseball Reference) to Fowler is Austin Jackson, who’ll appear later in these rankings. Plenty of teams could use the speed and limited power possessed by those guys. Expect Fowler, who’s a year older than Jackson, to get a four-year deal in the $45-55 million range.
Cleveland already expressed their interest in an older player in the mold of Fowler by signing Michael Bourn a few years ago. But Fowler, 29, is younger than Bourn was back then. They shouldn’t be scared off from Fowler, especially since the incumbent is career fourth outfielder Abraham Almonte.
#20. Colby Rasmus
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 2.6 (15th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 10.3 (34th)
Free Agent Quotient: 19.1
2016 Team Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Rasmus had a heck of a postseason with the Astros, launching three home runs in six games before Houston bowed out in the ALDS.
It’d make a lot of since for the Twins to make a run at signing him after they narrowly missed out on leap-frogging Houston for the second wild-card spot. Minnesota’s current projected starting outfielders are Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario and hyped prospect Byron Buxton. It’s unclear if any of those guys will be worthy of starting jobs on contending teams in 2016.
#19. Mike Napoli
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 1.0 (44th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 15.6 (13th)
Free Agent Quotient: 19.2
2016 Team Prediction: Texas Rangers
After a miserable start to the season, Napoli absolutely raked down the stretch after being traded to the Rangers. He had a slash line of .295/.396/.513 for Texas, so it’s not surprising that both sides have interest in re-upping for 2016.
#18. Doug Fister
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 0.2 (85th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 17.7 (9th)
Free Agent Quotient: 20.9
2016 Team Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Fister told the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes that, above all else, he wants to play for a team that’ll give him a shot to start in 2016.
The Rockies certainly fit that description, given the dire situation of their rotation. Fister would also be a nice fit in Coors Field as one of the game’s most extreme ground-ball pitchers.
#17. Ian Desmond
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 2.0 (21st)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 14.1 (17th)
Free Agent Quotient: 23.2
2016 Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Now that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has traded Brad Miller to the Rays in a six-player deal, Seattle’s starting shortstop job is up for grabs. One would think that Seattle wants to make one more run for the playoffs with its current core, so adding a bounce-back candidate with high potential like Desmond makes a lot of sense.
#16. Howie Kendrick
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 1.1 (43rd)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 17.5 (10th)
Free Agent Quotient: 24.5
2016 Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jon Heyman reported that the Dodgers will offer Kendrick a qualifying offer. Kendrick has said he wants to return to Chavez Ravine, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. There’s no reason why this reunion won’t come to fruition.
#15. John Lackey
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 5.7 (5th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 7.8 (47th)
Free Agent Quotient: 25.6
2016 Team Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Lackey had his best season in years with the Cardinals in 2015, but he doesn’t seem to be in the team’s long-term plans given the impending return of Adam Wainwright.
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently posited that Lackey would be a “perfect fit” for the Diamondbacks, and it’s not as crazy as it sounds. The Snakes overachieved this year, and could be looking to make a modest push for the playoffs. In that case, they’d need a veteran starter like Lackey to headline their pitching staff and teach the youngsters currently filling out the rotation a few tricks.
#14. Wei-Yin Chen
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 3.8 (10th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 9.2 (40th)
Free Agent Quotient: 27.0
2016 Team Prediction: New York Yankees
Chen has only been in the Majors since 2012 after coming over from Japan. To put him on a level playing field with the other free agents, we extrapolated his four-year WAR total to five years in the FAQ formula. That more accurately depicts the value the Taiwanese southpaw could bring to any rotation after recording a career-best 3.34 ERA over 191.1 innings in 2015.
The Yankees need a lefty starter given the uncertain status of C.C. Sabathia. Chen made his first postseason start against New York back in 2012, holding the Yanks to one run over 6.1 innings in a Baltimore win. Still just 30 years old, Chen could slot in the middle of New York’s rotation and provide the Yanks with valuable playoff experience — something no current Yankees starter besides Sabathia has under his belt.
#13. Austin Jackson
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 1.6 (28th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 17.0 (11th)
Free Agent Quotient: 28.0
2016 Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Jackson was acquired by Chicago this season as an insurance policy for Dexter Fowler, who is perceived as a more valuable commodity around the league despite being ranked lower than Jackson on this list. But FAQ indicates that Jackson might be the better bargain after all.
Jackson, who once signed a letter of intent to play point guard for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, can play all three outfield spots in a pinch. And with the Cubs essentially forced to spend big on either their rotation or outfield this offseason, Jackson could be a solid addition that satisfies a need while simultaneously allowing the Cubbies to offer a hefty contract to a front-line starter.
#12. Hisashi Iwakuma
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 2.4 (16th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 13.8 (20th)
Free Agent Quotient: 29.5
2016 Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Like Wei-Yin Chen, Iwakuma is another guy who came over for across the pond and has just five years of big-league experience under his belt despite being 34 years old. We adjusted his 2011-15 WAR accordingly, taking the average of his four-year WAR total and tacking that onto that variable of the FAQ formula.
All that scarcely matters though. It’d be a major shock if Iwakuma didn’t return to the M’s, who refused to get rid of him at the trade deadline because they were so confident he’d return this winter.
#11. Yovani Gallardo
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 4.1 (8th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 13.3 (21st)
Free Agent Quotient: 32.6
2016 Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Gallardo was quietly excellent for the Rangers this year, but the Fort Worth native might have priced himself out of the range of his hometown team. The Tigers are known to be targeting second-tier starters, and Gallardo would make for a worthy No. 2 behind Justin Verlander.
#10. Chris Davis
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 5.2 (6th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 14.9 (15th)
Free Agent Quotient: 41.3
2016 Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Along with Adam Jones, Davis and Nelson Cruz formed the sturdy backbone of a lineup that carried the Orioles to the ALCS in 2014. As a reminder, this was an Orioles squad that had to rely on Bud Norris, Jeremy Guthrie and Miguel Gonzalez for most of their postseason starts. When you have two of the league’s premier power hitters in your lineup, it scarcely matters who’s throwing.
The Mariners have Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano and a couple promising young arms in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton who could push Seattle over the top in the AL West next year. They also have a gaping hole at first base. If GM Jerry Dipoto wants to make a big splash in his first year at the helm, Davis makes a lot of sense.
#9. Jordan Zimmermann
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 3.5 (12th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 20.5 (7th)
Free Agent Quotient: 44.0
2016 Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Zimmermann, who could pass as Macklemore’s younger brother, has been one of the most durable arms in the NL since undergoing Tommy John surgery half a decade ago. He ranks fifth in the Majors in total starts since the beginning of 2012. He’s also a master of control, ranking seventh in walk rate between 2011-15 among pitchers with at least 500 innings.
Some team will pay him like a No. 2 starter this offseason, even if his strikeout rate indicates he’d be closer to a No. 3 option on a strong playoff contender.
#8. Ben Zobrist
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 1.9 (22nd)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 26.1 (2nd)
Free Agent Quotient: 44.7
2016 Team Prediction: New York Yankees
Zobrist is one of the game’s most versatile players in the field, a guy who’s manned every position save for pitcher during his time in the Majors. That skill would be very important to the Yankees, whose biggest hole happens to be second base, Zobrist’s main position. And if Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez or any of the other team’s injury-prone veterans go down with an injury, Zobrist could fill the void.
Zobrist’s age (34) could prevent some suitors from offering him a four-year deal, but that’s never stopped the deep-pocketed Yankees before.
#7. Justin Upton
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 4.4 (7th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 18.6 (8th)
Free Agent Quotient: 45.2
2016 Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
Upton hasn’t quite fulfilled the potential he exhibited while rising through the minor-league ranks in Arizona’s system as a No. 1 overall draft pick. He only has one 30-homer season to his name, and is mediocre with the glove in left field. So, he’s slightly below Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes and former Braves teammate Jason Heyward in the free agent outfielder pecking order.
The Orioles were down one big bat in their order following the departure of Nelson Cruz to Seattle, and could be down another heading into 2016 if Chris Davis elects to sign elsewhere. Signing Upton would allow Baltimore to move him back to his more natural position of right field, which was a black hole for the O’s in 2015 after long-time incumbent Nick Markakis signed with the Braves last year.
#6. Johnny Cueto
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 3.9 (9th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 20.5 (6th)
Free Agent Quotient: 46.0
2016 Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Cueto struggled mightily for most of the second half after he was traded to the Royals, but got some measure of redemption by dominating both the Astros and Mets in Kansas City’s run to the World Series. Of course, those two masterpieces were sandwiched around a two-inning, 8 ER horror show against the Blue Jays.
Given Cueto’s strong track record, he still ranks comfortably above Jordan Zimmermann in FAQ. There’s no question he’s also a notch below David Price and Zack Greinke, though.
Rumors swirled earlier this year about Cueto saying he would “wait for Boston” when he hits free agency. The Red Sox have reportedly mulled making a run at Cueto, which isn’t shocking — Boston needs a top-of-the-line starter in the worst way.
#5. Alex Gordon
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 2.8 (13th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 26.7 (1st)
Free Agent Quotient: 51.9
2016 Team Prediction: Kansas City Royals
One weakness of FAQ is that it doesn’t adjust for fluky injuries that occur in a player’s walk year. For example, Gordon’s FAQ was affected by a strained groin that sidelined him for two months this season. If he had managed to stay healthy, Gordon would almost certainly rank a couple spots higher on this list.
I fully expect the Royals to re-sign the face of their franchise, who was the first of Kansas City’s famed crew of promising young prospects to make the big leagues in 2007. With all the good vibes surrounding the team after its World Series victory, it’d probably be hard for Gordon to leave. And it’d be even more difficult for the Royals to stay out of the bidding war for the guy who saved Kansas City in Game 1, setting the tone for a series of late-game comebacks that netted the Royals their first championship in 30 years.
#4. Yoenis Cespedes
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 6.3 (3rd)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 14.9 (14th)
Free Agent Quotient: 53.8
2016 Team Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Going out on a limb here by predicting Cespedes to the Brewers. He doesn’t have any obvious suitors, and Milwaukee is just one year removed from competing for the NL Central title into the final month of the season. The Crew have a huge need for a competent center fielder, so even though Cespedes has defensive limitations there, his power in offense-friendly Miller Park would likely offset those concerns in the mind of Brewers GM David Stearns.
Note: Cespedes has only been in the Majors since 2012, so we multiplied his 2012-15 WAR of 14.9 by 1.25 to calculate the five-year figure we used for his FAQ.
#3. David Price
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 5.9 (4th)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 22.7 (5th)
Free Agent Quotient: 59.9
2016 Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Price was an invaluable piece for Toronto during the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 1993, notching an AL-best 2.45 ERA over the season, including a 2.30 mark for the Blue Jays. He’s the premier lefty available this winter, bar none.
A move to Chicago seems like the most logical move for Price, who would get to reunite with former manager Joe Maddon and give the Cubs a gnarly 1-2-3 punch with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Going forward, the Cubbies won’t want to be relying on Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel to help break the team’s World Series curse, as they were during this year’s playoffs.
#2. Jason Heyward
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 6.5 (2nd)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 24.5 (3rd)
Free Agent Quotient: 68.5
2016 Team Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals
Thanks to his stellar defense and a career-best .293 batting average, Heyward led the Cardinals to a 100-win campaign in 2015 that saw him finish fifth in WAR among NL position players. He also shed the label of being a poor playoff performer, going 5-for-13 (.385) with a double and home run in St. Louis’ five-game NLDS loss to Chicago.
The last time the Cardinals acquired a big-bopping outfielder with one year or less left on his deal, they elected to sign Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million contract after a successful audition of sorts with the team in 2009. I expect St. Louis to show the same courtesy to Heyward, who will draw an even bigger pay day given his youth (26 years old) and defensive prowess.
#1. Zack Greinke
2015 WAR (rank among FAs): 9.3 (1st)
2011-15 WAR (rank among FAs): 24.2 (4th)
Free Agent Quotient: 78.9
2016 Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
If I had to place a bet on the NL Cy Young winner, I’d put my money on Greinke. His 1.66 ERA this year was the lowest mark by any pitcher since Greg Maddux (1.63) in 1995. He also led the league in WHIP (0.84), and previously captured the AL Cy Young in 2009
Accordingly, he’s slightly above David Price in the hierarchy of pitchers on the market this winter. He’s also one of the most interesting characters in baseball, a former first-round pick who suffers from social anxiety disorder yet still manages to give incredibly thoughtful interviews that give us a peek into his deeply analytical mind.
In the end, the Dodgers have too much to lose by letting go of Greinke, who has already expressed his desire to stay in L.A.. The two-headed monster of Greinke and Clayton Kershaw makes Los Angeles a World Series contender every year, and Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman knows it. They franchise with the sport’s largest payroll already has one of the league’s top pitchers on its roster — why would they let him go, especially if the most likely alternative is letting him sign with their most hated rivals?