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GLG European Long-Short strategy Q3 performance update audio webcast, hosted by Richard Philips, Managing Director, UK Sales, with Simon Savage, Co-Manager and Risk Specialist, Philip Pearson, Senior Analyst European Technology, and Stephen Holliday, Senior Co-Fund Manager GLG Financials team.
Bookmarks:
0|
67|Cumulative returns
128|Cumulative returns last 12 months
292|Gross return breakdown
352|Significant strategies
932|Allocation of risk
1071|VAR usage and gross exposure
1243|Fund positioning
1303|Cumulative returns
Duration:
00:32:02
Recorded Date:
8 October 2013
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Transcript:
PRESENTER: Hello. Good morning and welcome to the European long/short and European equity alternative quarterly update. Today I’m joined by Simon Savage, who as ever will do a review of the quarter as well as comment on the fund’s positioning at the present time. We are also joined today by two members of the team. Stephen Holliday will give a briefer view of what he’s doing within the financial strategy and Philip Pearson will do the same for the technology book. As ever if you do wish to submit questions at any time please do so by clicking on the link on the screen and we will address all of the questions at the end. So without any further ado I shall hand straight over to Simon.
SIMON SAVAGE: Thank you very much Richard. So the last quarter covering two of the summer months, I think one of the standout features was how quiet it was from a volume perspective, maybe a surprise given the degree of macro noise surrounding that period. For us focussing on stock picking you can see on the slide on the table on the left our quarterly return for Q3 at 2.5%, taking us year to date to 7.5%. Against this quarter we’ve used the HFRX Index, which is a tradable equity long/short hedge fund index, simply because of the timing of the release of our usual preferred HFRX Index. I can tell you that was released this morning, so year to date that benchmark is up 10.5% and if you strip out a typically 40% beta for our long/short peer group that takes out about 5½%. So our 7½% alpha looking very good compared to the 5% alpha coming from our peer group.
Turning now to where the returns came from. This chart hasn’t come out that well this year in terms of the legend. So the black line is showing a rolling 12 month gross returns for the strategy and in red that is the return coming from stock selection. So the ability of the team in aggregate to buy stocks that outperform the sector and sell stocks that under-perform the sector and as ever that’s a dominant force behind our returns. Just to highlight another two things on the table underneath. Towards the right hand side you’ll see two columns, one marked fund ‘overlay’ and one ‘optionality’. This reflects the cost of the use of options within the fund at two levels.
The fund overlay, clearly as it suggests, the book managed by Darren Hodges and myself to mitigate the fund against big tail shocks, so year to date a cost of just under 70 basis points. Now we’ve been spending on average about 15 basis points per month. So it demonstrates how it is possible to actively manage options to monetise the cost. It’s not just like writing a cheque to your insurance company and never seeing the money again, you can crystallise some profit by actively managing it, which we’ve successfully done at the fund overlay level. And then the column next to it, optionality, this reflects the same measure or the incremental benefit or cost of options down at the book level.
So in a period of quiet markets that you would expect this to be a cost and in a highly volatile period a benefit, but clearly that is dictated by the relative price of the insurance, the implied volatility of the options market compared to the realised volatility. And if you’ve been following our monthly update something we’ve been highlighting often this year is the fact that realised volatility has been very similar to the implied volatility making insurance extremely cheap, and this is borne out in this figure where we’ve on average been spending 40 basis points per month of option premium at the book level, but that’s actually benefitted us by the tune of 20 basis points year to date. Again an example of how you can monetise the asymmetry coming from option products.
Turning to the next page, this gives you the breakdown of the returns by month over the quarter split across the strategies. And a relatively quiet period as you can see for many of the books with two big exceptions, the tech, the TMT team obviously having a fantastic quarter, and opposing that the financials team who had a bit of a headwind, and so this quarter we’ve got Phil Pearson to tell us about tech, but first I’ll just hand over to Stephen Holliday to give a reflection of what’s happened in financials and what his outlook is. Stephen, over to you.
STEPHEN HOLLIDAY: Thanks Simon. Good morning to everyone online. If I just cover three things briefly. Firstly what happened to the fund during Q3; secondly what changes we’ve made to the fund; and finally our thoughts and outlook for the book and for the sector.
Q3 was a disappointing period for our book by our standards. The principal reasons for this was that we’d had a very strong first half to the year and coming into July we were conscious that the book was quite stretched and quite consensual going into what typically is a summer lull. Summer over the six years we’ve run the fund has typically been quite a difficult time to make money in financials. Our response to this was to reduce gross into the summer - which was the right thing to do, but that the mistake we made was that we cut gross where we lack conviction as opposed to where the book was most stretched. This left us with a fairly concentrated book around a few key themes which went against us.
So principally we were short eurozone banks, particularly Spanish banks, and we were caught out in a large rally these banks have seen over the last three months. Historically we have traded these rallies in the eurozone pretty well, particularly the ones around the LTRO and the OMT. The catalyst we missed here which was much more subtle was the turn in PMI numbers leading to the perception that GDP had troughed and banks seen as a geared play. The second area of disappointment came from our longs in payment networks, again quite a big concentrated position for us. Visa was hit by some regulatory announcements. These, you know, we’ve gone through it in quite some detail, are very difficult to predict in advance. We think the ultimate outcome will be pretty benign and the stock has recouped a lot of its losses.
In terms of the changes we’ve made to the portfolio well during Q3 we did reduce gross further to preserve capital, and we’re through that period. The fact of sensitivity and the book has come down a lot as we’ve cut some of our Spanish shorts and the book has a lot greater breadth. So the risk within it has come down. So we’ve now expanded gross into what is a very different make-up of the book. So having troughed in around the sort of 40% gross at the time of speaking it’s now around 90%.
In terms of our outlook for Q4 for this sector and for the eurozone we still have quite a few reservations about the rally you’ve seen, but I think time is key here. The typical cyclical way in which you trade banks is that a couple of quarters before a GDP inflection the banks rally and then rally on after GDP inflects. I think that’s the trade the market’s playing in Europe. Our variant perception to that is that when you look at how banks trade in financial crises this relationship only holds for a few quarters, then as the economic data doesn’t come through the banks rollover again. This is what we saw happen in the US and the UK a few years ago, but timing’s going to be key there.
I think the near-term issue which is going to drive the sector will be the ECB becoming the sole regulator of the bank sector. Associated with this it’s going to do a stress test, which I think will be a major both sector and market event. There’s a huge two-way view in the market between whether this will be a simple sort of rubberstamping stress test with no capital raised, but with a more hawkish view being that you’ll see a lot of capital raised and potentially a fix to a long-term problem. I think that should help the deal pipeline which is always a big area of our returns.
In terms of the book, you know, as I mentioned it’s much bigger in both names and size are more diverse. I think the drivers in Q4 will be the Q3 results season where we look for more progress on our restructure in names and also a very active deal pipeline partly prospectively from the asset quarter review in Europe, but even on an ongoing basis we’re currently involved in five IPO situations today and most of these have proven to be very profitable. So the book has changed a lot over the quarter and we look to Q4 with optimism.
SIMON SAVAGE: Great. Thanks for that Stephen. So now hand over to Phil Pearson to do a similar job for the TMT book. Over to you Phil.
PHILIP PEARSON: Thanks Simon and welcome to everyone. I think really in TMT we had one of those quarters which we’ve been waiting for a little while in that essentially we had been operating in a bit of a headwind through the first half of the year, largely as a very simple macro result actually. We don’t take macro bets directly and we attempt to take most of the implied macro comments or exposure out of the book, but what has unquestionably been the case as in the first half of the year are returns were definitely impacted by the flow of money that you were seeing from generalist investors out of what we would term as defensive or reserve assets such as bonds and the like and cash and being put into the equity market.
And that money was typically being thrown towards very large cap high dividend yield stories, and unfortunately within the tech media and telecoms sector in particular we ended up with a scenario where a large number of companies through a mixture of activist shareholders, public statements from those companies in the first half of the year that we were short companies like Microsoft, like Cisco, Intel, Hewlett Packard. All were able to promise you a nice cash return story whilst they look to fix the business problems that were visible. At the same time on our long book people were not focussing so much because of the macro backdrop on some of the big longer term themes that were present in the market and were very visible to all of us; mobility, social networking and big data in particular.
As we got through to the middle part and really it was the earning season thing at the end of Q2 that really prompted this, life flipped around. We had two things that happened which I thought was extremely helpful. The first was the series of profit warnings from Oracle, from Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Cisco, reminding everybody of the secular long-term drags in some of these business models, irrespective of the cash return story that those guys have espoused. Laid onto that at the very same time we appear to have hit the inflection point on a number of the very big themes in the portfolio in terms of demonstrating the total addressable market. You’ve heard us talk about this before, the total addressable market of some of these smaller companies that we’re very excited by.
Two in particular stand out. The first was Facebook, which was the largest profit contributor for us on the quarter, and Mail.Ru, which is also a social media asset is number three on that list. So Facebook’s results at the end of Q2 were really a demonstration not of the fact that social networking is interesting, but more to the point of what the ROI is to an advertiser of spending money on a social networking platform in mobility. And in the space of four quarters we’ve gone from zero revenues in that industry to in Facebook’s case an annualised $3bn at the end of Q2 as they exited the quarter, in the space of those four quarters. And it’s not happened by accident, it’s happened by design.
They’ve spent a lot of time developing the product, testing what works, seeing how far they can push the envelope and understanding the returns that they will generate. And it looks to our mind at the moment as though spending money on social media mobile advertising is about two times the return of the most profitable form of advertising today known which is search, and as such you’re seeing a very very rapid take up of spending in that business. And the operating leverage obviously in going from zero to $3bn of annualised revenues in that division at nigh on 95% growth margins has a very dramatic impact on the value of that business. We have not sold as much of this as you might have thought, considering the move that we’ve had, and the reason simply is that if you follow through the trends that we’re seeing bottom up in this area the street is still significantly underestimating the size of that market.
A final thing from us in terms of we’ve had a similar inflection in some of the big data names, but we can leave that to another time. I think just looking forward as we get into Q4 I expect to see more of the same that we saw in Q3. We seem to have a scenario where the trends involved in the long book are likely to result in significant upsides to Q3 and Q4 numbers, and the ability to then turn that into looking at the total addressable market three four years out leaves significant asymmetry on the risk return. And with that I’ll pass it back to Simon.
SIMON SAVAGE: Great, thanks for that Phil. So just want to turn to the next slide which gives you two bits of information. One in the grey bars showing you the VAR allocation across the strategies where the new feature over the last quarter there’s been the introduction of three new developed strategies, in other words being promoted out of the incubator strategy, namely the cyclicals, industrials and a long-term alpha strategy. The first two may be self-explanatory, the latter just a couple of words on that. We’re very interested in finding the longer term investment opportunities that are coming out of our sector specialists, for two reasons.
Firstly, they with a different mindset can highlight more or maybe obviously well as it sounds stable and longer term investments, but then from the technical composition of this fund we know that we get diversification benefits from different time horizons of investments, and so this book has proved to be very successful in incubator in generating the absolute returns managed on a market neutral basis as you would expect, but then also in terms of its diversification across what seemingly would be the same alpha coming from the rest of the team running their books individually.
So those three books are the new features that come in this quarter. In the blue you can see the risk usage as at the end of September and as ever what you’ll find is a mixture of high to low levels of risk usage which are driven by the relative convictions of each individual team. So these are the decisions they are making themselves day-by-day to see how their conviction aligns to or what portion of their risk allocation they want to spend.
The overall conviction is rising, if we look at the next slide. This shows you on the left the grey shaded area is the gross exposure at the fund level. And as you can see that’s been rising progressively over the last quarter, and this really reflects the increasing conviction coming from within the team. There’s a sort of mixture of drivers here. There’s a general shift of money into Europe, which is causing in one sense some challenges, and Stephen intimated at those in terms of what’s gone on in the banks sector, but also opportunities, partially in reversion type trades where the market may have got overly euphoric in anticipation and waiting for facts to catch up and in other instances provides a nice tailwind to longer term investment theses, and again Phil highlighted some of those.
This same set up while being positive increasing the conviction of the team generally also makes Darren and I feel extremely nervous. Not just because we are pessimists at heart, maybe that is the case, but in this instance we know from our data that our peer group’s doing well, we saw that on the first slide, but also from our prime brokers we get an average level of gross exposure and net exposure of our peer group, and we know that’s at five year highs. And the third point we know there’s a fee crystallisation date coming in three months’ time. Now those three factors make for in our experience quite an unstable setup.
So there is a risk of a fast deleverage event. These are things that Darren and I always care about as you can see from this market slide stress test chart. So in this chart we are simulating what might happen to the funds returns as we stress the market return from an overnight fall of 10% to an overnight rally of 10% using six different models to try and anticipate how the fund may behave. And you can see at the moment we’ve got a lot of convexity in the portfolio reflecting firstly our fear of this destabilising, deleverage type event, but also the fact that the cost of insurance is still extremely cheap.
In terms of a quick look at the breakdown underlying the fund, on the left hand side in the first column the net exposure to any sectors, so while a long tech, short telco position remains quite dominant, it’s relatively small in an absolute sense, and then when you look at the corresponding longs and shorts of other sectors there’s a real mixture of where cyclicals and defensives feature. And as a result we see very little macro sensitivity at the fund at the moment. We look at all of our macro dashboards and again it’s not by accident, this is typically the way this fund is set up. And I think that’s probably enough of the information we wanted to convey.
So just maybe one final point 7½% for the year put us on track for 10% annualised, but I really feel that with good dispersion opportunities coming up to the final quarter and a good level of conviction across the whole team we’re really looking to get deeper into that 10 to 12% target range of returns we expect from this fund on a yearly basis. So Richard I think that’s probably the time to hand over to any questions.
PRESENTER: Lovely, thanks Simon. If you do wish to submit a question, please click on the tab, we’ve got a couple to fire away with already. First one is to Stephen, financials, for the top five detractors you had in a quarter of Spanish banks, what were you doing with those positions and what are you doing now?
STEPHEN HOLLIDAY: Well I guess historically what we do in positions these are positions which we have really run for around for four years on and off and have been very profitable during that period and were profitable in the first half. I think as I mentioned what we missed during the summer rally was our focus is very bottom up and fundamental, and we couldn’t see any scope for the numbers to come up, and indeed the news flow throughout the first half and arguably that some remain negative on further downgrades from restructured loans and concerns over how they would come out of the ECB stress test review.
So the bottom-up work led us to be bearish. From a trading perspective we had a fairly high tolerance of losses on these stocks having ridden out large short squeezes in the past in a long term down move in these names, and what we missed as I mentioned was just the magnitude of what a eurozone PMI print would do in terms of the top-down view on these stocks, which led to a large rerating. I mean there’s been very little in the way of upgrades during that period.
In terms of what we’re doing now, the size of those positions have broadly been halved during the summer; one of them into a capital raise, which we foresaw, but the capital raise actually after the initial move down the stock rallied after that which did change our view somewhat around the European stress test given the market’s very conducive to capital raises at the moment. So yes, the positions are half the size and we still maintained some short exposure today.
PRESENTER: Lovely, thank you Stephen. Simon, this is one for you, I know you’ve already commented on some of the strategies that came out of incubator status, any others that investors could see in the forthcoming quarter?
SIMON SAVAGE: Yes, absolutely. I think the two most likely to come out of incubator in the next two months are firstly the UK team of stock pickers, namely Charlie Long and Nick Judge. They’ve been with the firm for a very long time within our alpha select UK products and in this sense they’re running a book which is purely focussing at the stock picking side of the way that fund is managed. And the second strategy is an oil exploration strategy run by Nick Copeman. He joined the firm last summer within the energy team as an exploration specialist and has been maybe one of the strongest managers at implementing a very rigorous investment process around conviction checklists and the whole behavioural analysis programme that we run as a decision support tool for our PMs. So those are the two to look out for, watch this space.
PRESENTER: Lovely, and one for Phil now for technology. We’re just coming into the third quarter earnings season, is there any in particular that you’re looking to?
PHILIP PEARSON: I actually think the third quarter is going to be a real mixture of two groups. Group number one is going to be the secularly challenged and as we get into, well the thing that we always forget in tech time and time again is really the last four months of the year make up about 65% of the revenue of the industry, and so fundamentals tend to be more visible in Q3 and Q4 earnings, and so I would expect that the companies, and we’d highlight Hewlett, Oracle, SAP, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, companies that have promised an awful lot to investors in terms of what they can do to fix their problems, I think Q3 will be the time where people begin to see that some of those problems are not as easily fixable as they think. And more to the point one of the solutions to fix them will almost certainly be to invest more money particularly in M&A.
Flip it round to the other side I think it is unquestionably the case that bottom up the environment is slightly more favourable than it has been through most of this year in terms of getting business done. If you have good product you can sell it in an environment where the world doesn’t look like it’s ending. Now that’s providing the tea party doesn’t create some interesting fun and games next week, but I think that’s basically the model that we’re expecting to see. And in particular I mentioned earlier when I was talking we’re in very early stages of some of these inflection points, particularly in the case of mobile data, big data and social media advertising, and I think you should expect to see some acceleration in the trends that we saw in the second quarter, and a continuation therefore of the focus on how big is this market looking in three years’ time? And I think when people come and do their maths on that they’ll realise that much of the near-term multiples on some of these stocks can look a little scary, when you look out two or three years you understand that the market they’re addressing is so much bigger than you would have otherwise modelled that you begin to understand that the valuations don’t look nearly as scary as you thought they were, and I think Q3 numbers will be a continuation of that trend.
PRESENTER: Okay, Simon, got a couple for you here, after adding new strategies out of the incubator, I think it’s particularly for the UCITS fund, are there any plans to reopen that?
SIMON SAVAGE: Yes, just to clarify that it’s only the UCITS vehicle for the strategy that is closed, and that is for a specific UCITS rationale, which is defending UCITS shareholders from the tail risks of their fellow shareholders and secondly defending the monthly liquidity vehicle shareholders from any potential permanent impact of the actions of the daily liquidity UCITS vehicle. So for both those rationales the UCITS version of the strategy was closed to new investors at $1bn. Overall strategy capacity we view with the current team to be $5-5½bn and growing as the team does indeed diversify. So the overall answer to the question is yes strategy capacity increases as we bring in these proven managers and they come out of incubator, but the rationale for closing the UCITS strategy does not change.
PRESENTER: Okay, one other for you, are there any enhancements you’re making to your behavioural analysis at the moment?
SIMON SAVAGE: I think most of the people listening will be aware a continuing journey we’re going down in terms of putting a decision support structure in place to help get the best out of our managers and make sure that they can deliver their skills consistently. The introduction of a coach last year has proved very successful in making their skills more consistent as you might expect with the coaching service, the next phase is looking a bit deeper into what drives decision making, actually looking into the neurology - which is quite scary, because now you’re actually trying to figure out how your brain actually works and all the chemicals that fly around it.
So the next phase is bringing that level of attention into it, it highlights areas such as making use of the gym here, which apparently reduces stress levels. There’s a focus on the humorous artwork apparently as well, that’s a very good sign according to our neurologist coach, light-heartedness again reduces stress levels, which in turn drive more consistent process, although when she was and she did tell me off for having a cup of coffee after two o’clock in the afternoon, because that does apparently affect your sleep which will affect decision-making the next day. So we’re learning a lot about how our brains actually work. So again watch this space for the next phase of that development.
PRESENTER: Oh well thanks for that Simon, thank you everybody for your questions, that concludes the call for today. There will be a replay of this call available, which we will send to you and it’ll also be available on the website as usual. Thank you very much for your time today. Goodbye.
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