by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, August 19, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
Baseball has come up with a type of hat/helmet combination for pitchers to wear on the mound to protect them from comebackers, but almost no one wears it because it looks pretty funky. And barring wearing a full helmet with a facemask like a football player, there’s just no way to totally protect a guy who is only 50 feet or so from home plate by the time he delivers the ball. We saw another example of that on Monday when Yankees pitcher Bryan Mitchell took a line drive off his face. Man, it looked terrible, but apparently Mitchell has only suffered a nasal fracture and is being monitored for concussion symptoms. Mitchell started Monday because the Yankees wanted to give their regular starters an extra day’s rest. Four big-league pitchers have now been hit in the head by line drives this year. All four were struck below the cap line, so that helmet thing wouldn’t have mattered.
♦ Twins at Yankees (-166, 8.5)
Monitor the status of Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira for a few days. He was also forced out of Monday’s game after bruising his right leg with a foul ball during a sixth-inning at-bat. X-rays were negative, so he shouldn’t miss more than a game or two. This is your earliest game of Wednesday with a 1:05 p.m. ET start, so expect a regular or two on each side to take a seat. It’s Nathan Eovaldi (12-2, 4.26) goes for the Bombers. Last time out against the Indians, he won his seventh straight decision and hasn’t lost since June 16, a span of 10 starts. He beat the Twins on July 26, allowing two runs over eight innings. Minnesota’s Ervin Santana (2-3, 5.66) has allowed 22 runs over his past four starts, all losses. He hasn’t faced New York this season. A-Rod is a career .333 hitter off him with four homers and 11 RBIs in 36 at-bats.
Key trends: The Twins are 0-9 in their past nine vs. teams with a winning record (entering Tuesday). The Yanks are 6-0 in Eovaldi’s past six vs. the AL Central. The “over/under” has gone under in four of Santana’s past five on the road. The over is 5-0 in Eovaldi’s past five vs. AL Central teams.
Early lean: Yankees and over.
♦ Mariners at Rangers (-126, 9.5)
Texas is right there in the wild-card mix and will get back lefty pitcher Derek Holland, the team’s projected No. 2 starter, on Wednesday night. Holland threw nine pitches in Texas’ home opener April 10 before being pulled with a torn muscle in his throwing shoulder. He also was limited to only five starts last year due to injury. Robinson Cano is 10-for-28 with a homer and five RBIs against him. Mark Trumbo is 11-for-38 with four homers and nine RBIs. Mariners lefty Mike Montgomery (4-5, 4.14) started his rookie campaign strong but the M’s have dropped his past seven. He was rocked for nine runs in just 2.1 innings last time out vs. Boston. He allowed three runs over four innings on Aug. 8 vs. Texas.
Key trends: The Mariners are 1-4 in Montgomery’s past five vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-2 in Seattle’s past seven vs. lefties.
Early lean: Rangers and over.
♦ Indians at Red Sox (+129, 8.5)
Cleveland will activate All-Star second baseman Jason Kipnis either for Tuesday’s game or this one. He has been out since Aug. 1 with a shoulder injury and might have to only DH for a few games. He’s having an MVP-type season, hitting .326 (first in AL) with a .401 on-base percentage. Kipnis was leading the league in hits but has since been passed. The Tribe face Boston’s Joe Kelly (5-6, 5.69), one of the AL’s worst pitchers. He was solid last time out, however, allowing just a run and four hits over six innings in a win over Seattle. Only a few Indians have ever seen him. Kipnis is 2-for-2 with a double. Michael Brantley is 1-for-3. Corey Kluber (8-12, 3.34) has thrown back-to-back complete games for the Tribe, both against Minnesota. Boston’s David Ortiz is 2-for-8 with a homer off him. Brock Holt is 3-for-7 with two RBIs.
Key trends: The Tribe are 2-6 in Kluber’s past eight vs. teams with a losing record. The Sox are 0-5 in Kelly’s past five on Wednesday. The under is 4-1 in Kluber’s past five vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-2 in Kelly’s past seven at home vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Indians on runline — rare I will say that for a road team — and over.
♦ Giants at Cardinals (-154, 7)
St. Louis had to put terrific rookie outfielder Randal Grichuk on the DL on Monday. He injured his right elbow in Sunday’s loss to the Marlins. Grichuk was hitting .284 with a slugging percentage of .561 that was among the NL’s best. He also had 15 homers and 44 RBIs. The Cards moved Jason Heyward from right to center on Monday to cover for Grichuk and then Heyward left after two innings due to hamstring tightness so he might miss a few games. Thus, things might be a bit easier for Giants starter Matt Cain (2-3, 6.05) here. He’s 0-2 with an 8.24 ERA in his last four starts while earning nearly $21 million this season. Matt Carpenter is 7-for-10 off him with five RBIs. Cards lefty Jaime Garcia (5-4, 1.57) would be right there in the NL ERA race if he had enough innings to qualify. He hasn’t allowed a run in his past two starts, spanning 15.1 innings. Hunter Pence is 5-for-20 with a homer off him.
Key trends: The Giants are 1-10 in Cain’s past 11 vs. the NL Central. The Cards are 4-0 in Garcia’s past four on Wednesday. The over is 5-0-1 in Cain’s past six overall. The under is 5-0 in Garcia’s past five at home.
Early lean: Cardinals and under.
♦ Tigers at Cubs (-203, TBA)
This is the Wednesday ESPN game and thus will have live betting at sportsbooks. Detroit loses the designated hitter, meaning Victor Martinez will take a seat. It’s lefty Daniel Norris (2-2, 4.24) for the Tigers. He allowed four runs over 6.1 innings last time out vs. the Royals and has one quality start in three outings since coming over from Toronto in the David Price deal. Lefty Jon Lester goes for Chicago so expect the Tigers to try and run on him since Lester just can’t throw to first base to hold runners. He has some kind of mental block. Lester is 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA in his past five starts, giving up two runs or fewer in each of those games. Lester pitched in Detroit on June 9 and allowed five runs and nine hits over 4.1 innings. Miguel Cabrera owns Lester, going 14-for-25 with five extra base hits and eight walks.
Key trends: The Tigers are 12-3 in their past 15 interleague games vs. a lefty. The Cubs are 1-4 in their past five interleague games vs. a lefty. The under has hit in nine of his past 13 at home.
Early lean: Cubs and under.
2015 BASEBALL
National League
Diamondbacks @ Pirates
Ray is 0-4, 5.67 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.
Happ is 0-2, 8.31 in his last three starts; both his Pirate starts stayed under.
Pittsburgh won nine of last 12 games (over 8-3-1). Pirates won six of last eight games with Arizona; under is 4-1-1 in last six. D’backs lost four of last six games; five of their last eight went over.
Marlins @ Brewers
Koehler is 0-4, 6.56 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Peralta is 1-1, 1.93 in his last two starts; over is 4-3-1 in his last eight.
Marlins won six of last eight games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11- they won four of last six games with Milwaukee (over 3-2-1 in last six). Brewers won three of last five games– under is 4-2-1 in their last seven.
Giants @ Cardinals
Cain is 0-2, 8.24 in his last four starts; over is 5-0-1 in his last six.
Garcia is 2-0, 0.89 in his last three starts; eight of his last nine stayed under.
Giants won five of last seven games with St Louis; five of last eight in series went over total. SF won five of last six games overall; seven of last nine games stayed under. Cardinals won nine of their last 13 games.
Nationals @ Rockies
Strasburg is 3-1, 1.57 in his last five starts; five of his last six went under.
de la Rosa is 0-0, 4.76 in his last three home starts; four of his last five starts overall went over the total.
Washington lost six of last seven games, allowing 42 runs; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games; Nationals lost three of last five with Colorado; over is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Rockies lost seven of last eight games; four of their last five games went over the total.
Braves @ Padres
Teheran is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four starts on foreign soil.
Ross is 2-2, 4.71 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Atlanta lost six of last eight games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13. Braves lost seven of last nine games with San Diego- six of last seven went over total. Padres won six of last eight games overall– ten of their last 13 went over.
American League
Twins @ Bronx
Santana is 0-3, 10.80 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Eovaldi is 3-0, 3.55 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Minnesota lost seven of last nine games with Bronx; nine of last ten in series went over. Twins lost four of last six games overall, over is 6-4 in their last ten overall. Bronx won five of last six games; four of their last seven went under.
Indians @ Red Sox
Kluber is 2-0, 1.00 in his last two starts; three of his last four went over.
Kelly is 3-0, 4.41 in his last three starts (Boston scored 33 runs in the three games); over is 3-0-1 in his last four starts.
Red Sox won six of last nine home games, scoring 85 runs; their last nine games overall went over. Cleveland lost four of last six games; over is 6-4 in their last ten. Tribe won six of last nine vs Boston; five of those nine games stayed under the total.
Mariners @ Rangers
Seattle lost last seven Montgomery starts (0-2, 9.97 in last five, all five stayed over the total).
Holland threw nine pitches in his only ’15 start April 10, before his shoulder gave out; he returns here. He is 2-1, 1.78 in his last six starts overall; five of those six stayed under.
Rangers lost eight of last nine games with Seattle; under is 9-3 in last twelve series games. Texas won five of last six games overall; six of their last seven at home stayed under. Mariners lost three of last five games; four of their last seven games went over the total
Rays @ Astros
Karns is 3-0, 312 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six on road.
Keuchel is 2-1, 2.61 in his last three starts; three of his last four went under.
Tampa Bay lost four of last five games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Astros won four of last six games; seven of their last ten stayed under total. Rays won eight of their last ten games with Houston (under 7-2-1).
White Sox @ Angels
Samardzija is 0-3, 12.91 in his last three starts; his last five went over.
Weaver is 0-5, 6.08 in his last six starts; his last three at home went over.
White Sox won four of last six games with the Angels; home side won ten of last 12 series games. Chicago lost four of last five games; over is 8-5 in its last 13 games. Angels lost six of their last nine games; five of their last eight went under the total.
Interleague
Blue Jays @ Phillies
Buehrle is 4-0, 3.32 in his last six starts; four of his last five went over.
Morgan is 1-2, 4.76 in his last three starts (under 3-0-1 in last four).
Toronto won ten of last 11 games with Philly; five of last six went over the total. Blue Jays won 13 of last 15 games overall; eight of their last ten went under the total. Philly lost six of last seven (under 3-1 in last four).
Mets @ Orioles
Syndergaard is 3-1, 3.33 in his last four starts, last three of which went over.
Jimenez is 1-1, 5.09 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.
Orioles won six of last eight home games, but lost last nine games with the Mets; eight of last ten series games stayed under. New York lost three of last four games, scoring total of 11 runs- four of their last five went over
Royals @ Reds
Guthrie is 1-2, 7.13 in his last four starts; five of his last six went over.
Sampson is 2-1, 3.38 in his three starts (under 2-1).
Royals won eight of last nine games against the Reds; four of last six in series went over total. KC won nine of its last 11 games; four of its last five on road stayed under. Cincinnati lost seven of its last nine games; five of last seven went over the total
Tigers @ Cubs
Norris is 1-1, 5.29 in three starts for Detroit; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Lester is 3-0, 2.57 in his last three starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten.
Cubs won 13 of their last 16 games overall, but lost nine of last 11 with the Tigers; over is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Detroit lost five of its last eight games, with four of last seven staying under
Dodgers @ A’s
Wood is 1-1, 5.09 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1).
Chavez is 1-3, 6.57 in his last five starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten.
Oakland lost seven of last eight games overall but won five of last six games with the Dodgers- five of last seven series games stayed under. LA won five of last seven games; four of last five went over the total.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Az-Pitt– Ray 4-10; Happ 8-14/1-1
Mia-Mil– Koehler 10-12 (1-6 last 7); Peralta 5-8
SF-StL– Cain 4-4; Garcia 6-5
Wsh-Col– Strasburg 7-8 (4-1 last 5); de la Rosa 11-9
Atl-SD– Teheran 14-10; Ross 13-12
Min-NY– Santana 3-5 (0-4 last 4); Eovaldi 15-8
Cle-Bos– Kluber 9-16; Kelly 8-11 (3-0 last 3)
Sea-Tex– Montgomery 4-10 (0-7 last 7); Holland 0-1
TB-Hst– Karns 11-12; Keuchel 16-8
Chi-LA– Samardzija 11-13; Weaver 7-10
Tor-Phil– Buehrle 14-9; Morgan 5-4
NY-Balt– Syndergaard 9-8; Jimenez 12-11
KC-Cin– Guthrie 13-9; Sampson 2-1
Det-Chi– Norris 4-4; Lester 13-10
LA-A’s– Wood 9-15/1-2; Chavez 6-15
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Az-Pitt– Ray 2-14; Happ 9-22
Mia-Mil– Koehler 5-22; Peralta 4-13
SF-StL– Cain 4-8; Garcia 2-11
Wsh-Col– Strasburg 4-15; de la Rosa 7-20
Atl-SD– Teheran 8-24; Ross 8-25 (3 of last 3)
Min-NY– Santana 1-8; Eovaldi 8-23
Cle-Bos– Kluber 10-25; Kelly 9-19
Sea-Tex– Montgomery 3-14; Holland 1-1
TB-Hst– Karns 10-23; Keuchel 4-24
Chi-LA– Samardzija 12-24; Weaver 5-17
Tor-Phil– Buehrle 12-23; Morgan 1-9
NY-Balt– Syndergaard 5-17 (3 of last 3); Jimenez 6-23
KC-Cin– Guthrie 4-22; Sampson 1-3
Det-Chi– Norris 4-8; Lester 7-24
LA-A’s– Wood 7-24; Chavez 6-21
Umpires
Az-Pitt– Home side won nine of last 11 Gonzalez games.
Mia-Mil– Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve May games.
SF-StL– Last three Everitt games went over the total.
Wsh-Col– Home side won nine of last 11 Wolf games.
Atl-SD– Six of last eight Blaser games went over total.
Min-NY– Six of last eight TBarrett games stayed under.
Cle-Bos– Favorites won five of last six Wegner games.
Sea-Tex– Three of last four Hirschbeck games went over.
TB-Hst– Last five Drake games stayed under the total.
Chi-LA– Over is 11-4 in last fifteen Demuth games.
LA-A’s– Favorites won last seven Timmons games.
NY-Balt– Five of last six Woodring games went over.
Tor-Phil– Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Hamari games.
KC-Cin– Three of last four Conroy games stayed under.
Det-Chi– Under is 7-4-1 in lst twelve Randazzo games.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | LA DODGERS at OAKLAND
Play Against – Home teams (OAKLAND) poor power team (<=0.9 HR’s/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
133-85 since 1997. ( 61.0% | 52.6 units )
6-7 this year. ( 46.2% | -0.8 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | NY METS at BALTIMORE
NY METS are 15-5 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. excellent fielding teams – averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (5.1) , OPPONENT (2.5)
Eovaldi becoming a clutch pitcher for Yankees backers
Stephen Campbell
The New York Yankees have paid out for moneyline bettors in five out of Nathan Eovaldi’s last six starts.
Eovaldi and Ervin Santanta are slated to get the nod for Wednesday’s contest for the Yanks and Twins, respectively.
Sportbooks are presently dealing the Yankees in the -172 ballpark as of this writing.
A’s haven’t been profitable underdogs behind Chavez
Stephen Campbell
When his team has been given the underdog tag, Oakland A’s righty Jesse Chavez hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations.
The A’s are a paltry 1-11 in Chavez’s last 12 starts as underdogs. Pinnacle Sports has tabbed Chavez and the A’s as +119 moneyline pups for their matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday.
The total for the game is currently at 8.0.
‘Over’ red-hot when Teheran hits the road
Stephen Campbell
In Julio Teheran’s last 11 starts away from home, the Over has gone a sizzling 10-0-1.
Therean is slated as the probable starter for the Braves Wednesday opposite Tyson Ross and the Padres.
The total for this NL title has opened at 6.5 runs.
Hottest MLB betting trends to track down the stretch
By Joe Fortenbaugh
The dog days of summer are done and the postseason push has officially arrived. The next six weeks of MLB action will separate the pretenders from the contenders, as divisional matchups, daunting cross-country road trips and primetime pitching matchups will dominate the headlines from now until October.
Which teams will be left standing when all is said and done and the playoffs finally get underway? Perhaps that answer can be found below within the handful of betting trends we’re putting under the microscope this week.
Divisional showdowns
September, and to a lesser extent the first week of October, are best known around the majors for marquee divisional showdowns that carry a significant impact on the chase for the postseason. Look no further than the Chicago Cubs, who will play 23 of their final 31 contests against National League Central opposition.
For bottom dwellers, like the Milwaukee Brewers (25 games back), this stretch represents nothing more than an opportunity to call up some young, talented minor league prospects. But for those in the grueling hunt for postseason stardom, this is the most mentally-trying span of the entire 162-game season. As of Monday afternoon, here are baseball’s best and worst teams in terms of divisional play:
Best
St. Louis Cardinals: 32-18 (.640)
New York Mets: 30-17 (.638)
Kansas City Royals: 32-19 (.627)
Detroit Tigers: 30-20 (.600)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 29-20 (.592)
The NL West-leading Dodgers may be nine games over .500 within their division, but be advised that this team has a serious issue when it comes to beating the San Francisco Giants, who are 9-3 with a plus-8 run differential against the Dodgers this season.
Worst
Miami Marlins: 16-28 (.364)
Cleveland Indians: 18-31 (.367)
Colorado Rockies: 18-31 (.367)
Texas Rangers: 18-28 (.391)
Chicago White Sox: 20-31 (.392)
The Marlins, Indians, Rockies and White Sox all own losing records and were a combined 56 games under .500 as of Monday afternoon, so it’s no surprise to see those teams on this list. What is surprising is to see the Texas Rangers (59-57), who are just 1.5 games out of a wild card berth, sharing the same space. But that’s what happens when you somehow find a way to post a 4-9 record against the lowly Oakland Athletics.
How rest impacts totals
Major League Baseball has been kicking around the idea of reducing the current 162-game regular season format to 154 games in an effort to avoid situations like the one the Oakland A’s will face on Tuesday, which will see the club play a 7:05 p.m. ET start in Baltimore Monday evening before traveling across the country to host the Dodgers Tuesday.
A’s manager Bob Melvin told me Monday, during my radio show on 95.7 The Game in the Bay Area, that he’s in favor of the idea, as the Oakland skipper doesn’t understand why MLB didn’t schedule Monday’s showdown with the Orioles during the afternoon so that his team would have adequate time to rest for Tuesday’s matchup with Clayton Kershaw and the NL West-leading Dodgers.
But before baseball can make any such changes official, it’s important that we analyze how its clubs perform given the current scheduling landscape. Here’s a look at the most profitable clubs in baseball in terms of Overs and Unders when given one day of rest in 2015:
Top ‘OVER’ records following one day of rest
Houston Astros: 7-3-1 (.700)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 9-4-1 (.692)
New York Yankees: 9-4 (.692)
Atlanta Braves: 8-4 (.667)
Los Angeles Angels: 8-4-1 (.667)
Top ‘UNDER’ records following one day of rest
Washington Nationals: 9-3 (.750)
New York Mets: 8-3 (.727)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 8-3-1 (.727)
Philadelphia Phillies: 8-3-1 (.727)
St. Louis Cardinals: 7-3-2 (.700)
Road warriors
Winning on the road is one thing, but winning on the road while covering the number as a favorite is another feat entirely. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks as an example, who have been listed as road favorites 10 times this season, only to win in just one of those instances.
Hotel rooms, foreign time zones, unfamiliar surroundings. These are just a handful of reasons as to why a team expected to win a specific contest away from home fails to do so.
Heading into the home stretch, here are the best and worst at winning games while assuming the role of road favorite:
Best road faves
Detroit Tigers: 10-3 (.769)
Chicago Cubs: 21-8 (.724)
St. Louis Cardinals: 20-11 (.645)
Oakland A’s: 13-8 (.619)
New York Mets: 11-7 (.611)
Worst road faves
Arizona Diamondbacks: 1-9 (.100)
Houston Astros: 7-14 (.333)
Miami Marlins: 4-8 (.333)
Boston Red Sox: 6-11 (.353)
Baltimore Orioles: 7-9 (.438)
Keep an eye on…
Finally, I’ll leave you with a trend that is 100 percent worth monitoring for the rest of the 2015 MLB season:
MLB teams in the role of home underdog
San Francisco Giants: 11-3 (.786)
Stay patient, pick your spots and best of luck this week!
WNBA Betting Recap
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes (from Monday, Aug. 10 through Sunday, Aug. 16)
— Favorites went 10-5 straight up
— Favorites went 8-7 against the spread (ATS)
— Home teams posted a 8-7 SU record
— Home teams posted a 8-7 ATS record
— The ‘over’ went 8-7
Team Betting Notes
— San Antonio (7-18) lost for the second straight game, and sixth time in seven outings. However, they are still a very respectable 8-3 ATS over their past 11 outings.
— Seattle (7-19) picked up a victory and cover against San Antonio. It is their first win in three tries against the Stars, and they covered for the second time in three outings.
— Washington (14-9) picked up a straight-up win (ML +155) despite being short dogs at home. The Mystics are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS when they’re an underdog.
— Atlanta (9-15) took care of business at home as a favorite, topping Connecticut (12-12). The Dream have now covered three in a row, tying a season high. They have yet to cover four straight, and look to change that in a trip to New York (16-7) Friday in Manhattan.
— Phoenix (15-9) was surprised at home Sunday by Indiana (14-9), who finished the week unbeaten at 2-0 SU/ATS. The Mercury have dropped two of their past three games, and are just 3-9 ATS over their past 12 games.
— The Fever continue to turn up the intensity, covering for the sixth time in the past seven games after starting the season 5-10-1 ATS in their past 16 games. After a four-game ‘over’ streak, the ‘under’ has hit in the past two for Indiana.
— Los Angeles (8-16) put the brakes on a two-game losing streak and non-cover streak with a win over Chicago (15-11). The Sparks have had the ‘under’ connect in four of the past five outings.
— Tulsa (11-14) picked up a surprise win in New York to snap a 10-game losing streak. The Shock is also just 2-8-1 ATS over the past 11 contests. One thing you can count on from the Shock is the ‘over’, which has hit in five of the past six games.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA
Play Under – Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points in a game involving two average defensive teams (65-72 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more
48-20 since 1997. ( 70.6% | 26.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
WNBA | WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA
Play On – Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) excellent free throw shooting team (>=80%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-80%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games
59-32 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 0.0 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA
Play Under – Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
Coach Fletcher
MLB Wednesday Scouting Edge
10:05 am Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Eovaldi Run Support Has Helped Him Go 12-2
It’s not every day that you see a pitcher go 12-2 with a 4.26 era. But that’s what has happened for the NYY Nathan Eovaldi this season. Eovaldi has been good at home. He’s gone 4-0 at Yankee Stadium with a 3.41 era. In his last 3 starts, one at home, Eovaldi is 2-0 with a 4.15 era. Nathan is 1-0 versus the Twins. On July 26 in Minnesota, Eovaldi went 8 innings and allowed 2 runs on 8 hits. The Yanks opened at -160.
11:05 am Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Holland Back for First Start Since April 10
The Rangers are in the thick of it for an AL Wild Card spot and can’t even be counted out for the AL West pennant. But they need some pitching help and they are hoping to get it from Derek Holland. The Rangers placed Holland on the DL with a shoulder injury after 1 unsuccessful start on April 10. Holland’s rehab numbers are not good. He went 12 innings and had a 6.00 era at Double-A and Triple-A affiliates of the Rangers. Holland says he feels ready and his velocity is good. On August 5 he threw 55 pitches and allowed 3 hits and walked 3 in just over 2 innings of work. On August 9 pitching for Double-A Frisco, Holland allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk in 3 1/3 innings throwing 63 pitches. Last Friday for Triple-A Round Rock, Holland threw 89 pitches and another 10 in the bullpen. He worked 5 innings and allowed two runs while fanning 8 and only walking 1. 60 of his 89 pitches were strikes. Texas opened at -126.
12:35 pm L.A. Dodgers at Oakland Athletics
Latos Will Turn to His Fastball to Regain Form
Mat Latos said he is going to use his breaking ball less and focus on his fast ball in an effort to regain his form. Latos is 4-9 this year with a 4.81 era. In his last start against the familiar Cincinnati Reds, Latos was pounded for 5 runs, 4 earned, and 7 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. He did fan 7. In his previous start against the Pirates he was tagged for 6 runs and 7 hits in 4 innings and failed to strikeout a batter. That puts him at a 6.75 era for his last 3 starts. He has been far better on the road this year with a 3.29 era in 9 starts as the visitor. Latos and the LAD opened at -128.
4:05 pm Arizona D-Backs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates Give Happ Another Start
Perhaps J.A. Happ earned another start last week when he held the Mets to just 1 run while striking out 7 in 5 1/3 innings. But 1 thing remained the same. Happ has only recorded 1 win in 17 starts since May. Happ is 4-7 with a 4.64 era and was acquired from Seattle by the Bucs. In starts at home, Happ has been better going 2-3 with a 3.54 era. Most of those starts, in fact 9 of his 10, came at Seattle. In 1 home start for Pittsburgh, Happ gave up 8 hits and 4 runs to the Cubs in 4 1/3 innings. In his last 3 starts, 1 for Seattle and 2 for the Bucs, Happ has gone just 13 innings and allowed 11 earned runs on 24 hits, including 4 that left the park. He has good numbers vs Arizona, but keep in mind those are from 2009-2011. The Pirates opened at -145.
4:05 pm Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
Old versus Young in Philadelphia Wednesday
Mark Buehrle, 36 years old, threw his first pitch in the major leagues at 21 years of age in 2000. Buehrle will start for the Jays against Adam Morgan of the Phils. Morgan is 25 and threw his first big league pitch June 21 of this year. Buehrle is having an excellent year going 13-5 for the contending Jays with a 3.31 era. Since June 1, Buehrle has an era of 2.17 over 13 starts. He’s gone at least 7 innings in 10 of his last 11 starts. Morgan is 3-4 for the Phillies, not bad considering that they are 46-72 on the year. He’s 1-1 with a 4.22 era at home, 4.24 in his last 3. 3 of his last 4 starts were deemed quality starts. Buehrle and the Jays opened at -200.
4:10 pm Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Kluber Getting Hot for Indians
Corey Kluber won the Cy Young award last year but hasn’t looked like it too often this year. However, if his last 2 starts are any indication, the former Cy Young winner may have regained his form. Kluber has suffered through an up and down year where he is 8-12 with a 3.34 era and a 1.04 whip. This will be his 21st start of the year and he hopes his recent form continues. Kluber just finished raking the Twins over the coals in two straight appearances. He went the full 9 in each of his starts, one at home and one away. For both games, Coery allowed the Twins just 4 hits and 2 runs while striking out 17 batters. The Indians have won 6 of his last 9 starts. Actually Kluber has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of his 20 starts. His era for the last 3 is 2.66. The Tribe opened as -135 favorites.
FREE PLAY – Los Angeles Angels -140
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners +111 over Texas Rangers
(System Record: 65-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 65-59-2
Basketball Crusher
Washington Mystics +9.5 over Minnesota Lynx
(System Record: 21-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 21-20-4
Soccer Crusher
Independiente + Lanus – UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 802-26, won last game)
Overall Record: 802-653-124
Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today…
Baseball
Arizona Dbacks +133 over Pittsburgh Pirates
Tampa Bay Rays + Houston Atros – UNDER 7.5
Colorado Rockies + Washington Nats – OVER 10
Basketball
none
NO LIMIT SPORTS PICKS
Blank Check Game of the Year #2 – Toronto Blue Jays -2.00
JO JO – TENNIS (-8.67)
ATP – WESTERN & SOUTHERN OPEN @ CINCINNATI, OH
D GOFFIN -170 F VERDASCO (1230PM)
F LOPEZ -110 A SEPPI (4PM)
WTA – WESTERN & SOUTHERN OPEN @ CINCINNATI, OH
P KVITOVA -200 C GARCIA (3PM)
SIMON – SOCCER (-.75)
UEFA – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UNDER 2.5 +100) SHAKHTAR DONETSK @ SK RAPID WIEN (245PM)
UEFA – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ( CELTIC GLASGOW -157) MALMOE FF @ CELTIC GLASGOW (245PM)
UEFA – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (OVER 2 -140) AS MONACO @ CF VALENCIA (245PM)
ENGLAND – CHAMPIONSHIP (UNDER 2.5 -148) READING FC @ SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY (245PM)
PAUL LEINER
100* MLB – Brewers -140
100* MLB – Indians / Red Sox – Over 8.5
MARC LAWRENCE
4* Cleveland Indians ML