by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, July 29, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
Very interesting but also somewhat puzzling trade late on Monday night as Colorado sent franchise icon and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki along with veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins to Toronto for shortstop Jose Reyes and three young pitchers. Now, is Tulowitzki a better player than Reyes? He is, but the Blue Jays already had the best offense in the majors and badly need to add a starting pitcher. Obviously, this doesn’t help there. Plus, Tulowitzki, 30, is still owed $113.7 million through 2020, and his numbers no doubt have been inflated some playing half his games at Coors Field. Still, that Toronto offense is just scary good now. I have no idea why the Rockies would even want the injury-prone 32-year-old Reyes unless they are planning to flip him. He’s still owed another $48 million after this season. Toronto is now +1200 to win the AL pennant. This deal means nothing for Colorado this season. It’s full-on rebuild now.
♦ Rockies at Cubs (-245, TBA)
This will have live betting at sportsbooks as the matinee is televised on the MLB Network. Presumably Reyes debuts here if he doesn’t on Tuesday. The Mets already have said they aren’t interested in a trade to bring him back. By the way, I fully expect the Rockies to trade outfielder Carlos Gonzalez now. He has been raking this month. Colorado starts young right-hander Eddie Butler (3-6, 4.77) here. He returned to the majors and had a quality start last time out, allowing three runs over six innings against the Reds. He has never faced the Cubs. Chicago lefty Jon Lester (5-8, 3.32) pitched well last time out, allowing just two runs over seven innings against the Phillies, but got a no-decision. He has a 1.53 ERA this month. Gonzalez is 1-for-6 off Lester with a strikeout.
Key trends: The Rockies are 0-5 in Butler’s past five vs. teams with a winning record. The Cubs are 0-4 in Lester’s past four at home. The “over/under” has gone under in six of his past seven pitching on four days of rest.
Early lean: Bet against the Rockies for at least the rest of this week. The players on that team aren’t happy Tulo was dealt. Plus, now some other guys are looking over their shoulders.
♦ Phillies at Blue Jays (-226, 9.5)
Tulowitzki is batting .300 with 12 home runs and 53 RBIs over 87 games in 2015. If he doesn’t make it to Toronto to debut on Tuesday, he should here. Over the past nine seasons, Tulowitzki ranks first as a shortstop in OPS (.893), home runs (186), RBIs (650), and wins above replacement (40.0). He’s also a better defender than Reyes is. He would face Phillies starter Jerome Williams (3-7, 6.28), who has been one of the worst in the majors. Williams did have a quality start last time out, but it was his first since May 26. Toronto’s Josh Donaldson is 7-for-23 with three doubles off him. Tulo is 1-for-3 with two RBIs. It’s R.A. Dickey (4-10, 4.53) for Toronto. His numbers don’t look great, but Dickey has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his previous 10 starts. Carlos Ruiz is 6-for-19 with a double off him.
Key trends: The Phillies are 1-7 in Williams’ past eight on the road. The Jays are 1-5 in Dickey’s past six. The over is 5-2 in Dickey’s past seven on Wednesday.
Early lean: Blue Jays and over. I’ll be going over many Blue Jays games going forward.
♦ Nationals at Marlins (-103, 7.5)
Tuesday was set to be a big day for Washington as first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and outfielder Jayson Werth were both set to be activated off the disabled list. The Nats were looking at possibly trading for Tyler Clippard of the A’s to bolster their bullpen — Clippard was with Washington last season — but he was sent to the Mets on Monday. Washington will do something in the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman? Doug Fister (3-6, 4.50) goes here for the Nats. They have lost his past four. Fister hasn’t faced the Marlins in 2015. Dee Gordon is 1-for-3 off him. Miami was set to activate the All-Star second baseman off the DL as well on Tuesday. It’s Tom Koehler (8-6, 3.16) for the Marlins. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his past six starts. Koehler is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts this year vs. Washington. Werth is 4-for-13 with two homers off him. Zimmerman is 5-for-14 with a dinger.
Key trends: The Nats are 1-5 in Fister’s past six on the road. The Marlins are 0-6 in Koehler’s past six on Wednesday. The under is 5-2 in Fister’s past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in Koehler’s past five vs. Washington.
Early lean: Marlins and under.
♦ Padres at Mets (-115, 7)
Quite possibly the final start for Tyson Ross in a Padres uniform as reports are the Cubs are in heavy talks to land Ross — possibly in a package where Chicago would send shortstop Starlin Castro to San Diego. Ross (6-8, 3.45) isn’t an ace but a good No. 3-type starter. Guy hasn’t allowed a homer in his past 16 starts, which is a franchise record. Ross hasn’t faced the Mets this season. Curtis Granderson is 4-for-10 with a homer off him. New York’s Bartolo Colon (9-9, 4.60) hasn’t won since June 12. He deserved a win last time out, however, allowing just a run and five hits over eight innings against the Dodgers. It’s his first start of the year vs. San Diego. Melvin Upton is a career .303 hitter off him with a homer.
Key trends: The Padres are 2-6 in Ross’ past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 6-1 in Colon’s past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in Ross’ past eight on Wednesday. The under is 5-1 in Colon’s past six.
Early lean: Padres and under.
♦ Angels at Astros (-103, 8)
This also will have live betting with it the ESPN Wednesday night game. The Halos made a minor trade for outfield depth on Monday in landing Shane Victorino from Boston. Angels left fielders have been about the worst in the majors offensively this season, so maybe Victorino helps. And he has been good in his postseason career. Garrett Richards (10-7, 3.25) is on the mound for Los Angeles. Richards is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in two starts this year vs. Houston. Jose Altuve is a career .320 hitter off him. It’s rookie right-hander Lance McCullers (4-3, 2.60) for the Astros. He pitched in Anaheim on June 25 and allowed a run and four hits over six innings.
Key trends: The Angels are 9-2 in Richards’ past 11 on five days of rest. Houston is 4-0 in McCullers’ past four at home. The over is 5-1 in Richards’ past six on the road. The under is 5-0 in Richards’ past five vs. Houston.
Early lean: Angels and under.
2015 BASEBALL
National League
Padres @ Mets
Ross is 3-1, 2.79 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Colon is 0-5, 5.55 in his last six starts; five of the six stayed under.
Padres won four of last six games with New York; three of last four series games went over total. San Diego is 7-4 in last 11 games; their last five stayed under the total. Mets won last three games, allowing four runs.
Nationals @ Marlins
Fister is 0-3, 5.73 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Koehler is 4-2, 2.77 in his last six starts (under 5-0-1).
Washington lost five of last seven games with Miami; four of last six in series went over total. Nationals lost seven of last ten games; over is 5-2-1 in the last eight . Marlins won seven of their last eight at home.
Rockies @ Cubs
Butler is 1-1, 4.61 in his last five starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Lester is 1-0, 1.26 in his last two starts; under is 8-0-1 in his last nine.
Cubs are 3-6 in last nine games overall, 6-3 in its last nine games with Colorado (over 6-2 in last eight). Rockies are 4-6 in their last ten games (over 6-2-1 in last nine).
Reds @ Cardinals
DeSclafani is 0-3, 6.11 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Lackey is 3-0, 1.40 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Cincinnati lost five of last seven games with St Louis; last four series games stayed under. Reds lost four of last six games; three of last four stayed under. St Louis won six of last eight games; under is 6-0-1 in last seven.
Brewers @ Giants
Fiers is 1-1, 5.00 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Peavy is 2-4, 5.13 in his six starts (over 4-2).
SF won 12 of its last 14 games overall. Brewers lost five of last seven games; they scored seven runs in last four games- under is 4-0-1 in their last five. Giants won seven of last eight games with Milwaukee; over is 3-2-1 in their last six games overall.
American League
Tigers @ Rays
Verlander is 0-3, 6.08 in his last six starts; seven of his last eight went over. Detroit lost his last eight starts overall.
Archer is 0-1, 2.08 in his last two starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
Detroit lost 11 of its last 15 games; four of its last six games stayed under total. Tigers lost eight of last 11 games with Tampa Bay- six of last nine series games went over. Rays won three of last five; under is 5-2-3 in their last ten.
White Sox @ Red Sox
Quintana is 2-2, 2.52 in his last five starts; three of his last four went under.
Porcello is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine.
White Sox won their last six games, but they’re 5-7 in last 12 games with Boston, which lost ten of last 12 games overall– over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Four of last five series games went over the total.
Royals @ Indians
Guthrie is 1-1, 4.62 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.
Kluber is 2-2, 3.38 in his last four starts; five of his last seven stayed under.
Royals won eight of last 11 games overall (under 6-1-1 last eight). Indians lost last six games, outscored 37-10; seven of their last ten games went over. Over is 8-3-1 in last 12 series games.
Bronx @ Rangers
Tanaka is 3-0, 3.22 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.
Lewis is 2-0, 2.40 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over.
Bronx won ten of last 12 games (five of last six went over); they lost four of last six games with Texas, allowing 40 runs (under 8-4 in last 12). Rangers lost last three games, outscored 40-14 (over 7-3 in last ten).
Angels @ Astros
Richards is 2-2, 2.40 in his last four starts; five of his last seven went under.
McCullers is 1-1, 2.79 in his last five starts (over 2-0-1 in last three).
Angels won three of last five games with Houston; seven of last ten series games stayed under. Halos lost four of last five games overall; eight of their last ten away games went over total. Astros won six of last eight games; four of their last six stayed under total.
Interleague
Phillies @ Blue Jays
Williams is 0-3, 8.59 in his last five starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.
Dickey is 1-1, 2.11 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Philly lost eight of last nine games with Toronto; three of last four went over total. Phils are 9-1 in their last ten games overall (under 4-1-1 in last six). Blue Jays lost three of last four games- three of the four went over
Braves @ Orioles
Foltynewicz is making first start since June 14; he is 0-0, 9.19 in his last three starts, all of which went over total.
Tillman is 2-0, 1.38 in his last five starts, all of which stayed under.
Atlanta lost five of last six games with Baltimore; four of last five stayed under. Braves lost five of last six games overall- under is 8-2-1 in their last eleven. Orioles won last four games, allowing seven runs; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Pirates @ Twins
Former Twin Liriano is 2-0, 1.95 in his last five starts; three of his last four starts went over the total.
Santana is 2-0, 0.00 (15.2 IP) in his last two starts; three of his last four starts stayed under the total.
Pirates lost seven of last 11 games with Minnesota; seven of last ten in series went over total. Pittsburgh won four of last five games overall (over 4-1). Twins lost seven of last nine games; last four went over total.
A’s @ Dodgers
Chavez is 1-4, 5.19 in his last five starts; seven of his last eight went over.
Kershaw is 3-0, 0.00 (26 IP) in his last three starts; his last six stayed under.
A’s won eight of last ten games against the Dodgers; last five went under the total. Oakland lost four of last five games, scoring 11 runs (under 4-1). LA lost five of last eight games; five of their last six home games stayed under.
Diamondbacks @ Mariners
Corbin is 0-3, 3.71 in his last three starts, which all stayed under.
Hernandez is 2-1, 1.36 in his last five starts; five of his last seven went under.
Arizona won five of last six games overall– under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. Seattle lost three of last four games; six of its last eight went over the total. D’backs won fourof last five games with Seattle; over is 3-0-1 in last four.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Colo-Chi– Butler 6-6; Lester 10-10
Mil-SF– Fiers 11-9; Peavy 2-4
Wsh-Mia– Fister 4-9; Koehler 10-8
Cin-StL– DeSclafani 9-10; Lackey 12-8
SD-NY— Ross 10-11; Colon 9-10
Det-TB– Verlander 0-7; Archer 12-9
CWS-Bos– Quintana 8-10; Porcello 9-10
KC-Clev– Guthrie 12-7; Kluber 6-15
NY-Tex– Tanaka 10-3; Lewis 10-10
LA-Hst– Richards 11-7; McCullers 6-6
Phil-Tor– Williams 5-10; Dickey 8-12
Atl-Balt– Foltynewicz 4-5; Tilllman 10-9
Pitt-Min– Liriano 9-10; Santana 3-1
A’s-LA– Chavez 5-12; Kershaw 11-9
Ariz-Sea– Corbin 1-3; Hernandez 13-7
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Colo-Chi– Butler 6-13; Lester 8-20
Mil-SF– Fiers 1-20; Peavy 2-6
Wsh-Mia– Fister 4-13; Koehler 4-18
Cin-StL– DeSclafani 4-19; Lackey 4-20
SD-NY— Ross 5-21; Colon 5-19
Det-TB– Verlander 3-7; Archer 5-21
CWS-Bos– Quintana 11-18 (6 of last 7); Porcello 4-19
KC-Clev– Guthrie 3-19; Kluber 10-21
NY-Tex– Tanaka 3-13; Lewis 4-20
LA-Hst– Richards 2-18; McCullers 2-12
Phil-Tor– Williams 6-15; Dickey 4-20
Atl-Balt– Foltynewicz 5-9; Tilllman 3-19
Pitt-Min– Liriano 2-19; Santana 0-4
A’s-LA– Chavez 4-17; Kershaw 4-20
Ariz-Sea– Corbin 0-4; Hernandez 5-20
Umpires
Col-Chi– Six of last eight HGibson games went over.
Wsh-Mia– Five of last six May games stayed under.
SD-NY– 11 of 16 Scott games went over the total.
Cin-StL– Six of last nine Muchlinski games stayed under.
Mil-SF– Seven of last nine Cuzzi games stayed under.
KC-Clev– Favorites won three of four Woodring games.
Det-TB– Underdogs won three of last five Blakney games.
Chi-Bos– Last three Johnson games stayed under total.
NY-Tex– Favorites won six of last seven Baker games.
LA-Hst– Eight of last ten GGibson games stayed under.
Pitt-Minn— Underdogs won six of last eight Hoberg games; over is 3-0-1 in his last four games.
Atl-Balt– Over is 4-1-1 in last six Wolf games.
Phil-Tor– Home side won last four Reyburn games.
Az-Sea–Last three Hallion games stayed under the total.
A’s-LA– Five of last seven Knight games stayed under.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | CHI WHITE SOX at BOSTON
Play Against – Home teams (BOSTON) poor power team (<=0.9 HR’s/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
133-85 since 1997. ( 61.0% | 52.6 units )
6-7 this year. ( 46.2% | -0.8 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | CINCINNATI at ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS is 36-11 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in Home games as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.
The average score was: ST LOUIS (3.9) , OPPONENT (2.6)
Coach Fletcher’s
MLB Wednesday Scouting Edge
9:10 am Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Rejuvenated Royals Take on Cy Young Winner Kluber
Last year’s Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, is not having a Cy Young type 2015. Kluber is 5-11, that’s his record not his height. He has an era of 3.59. In his last start, Kluber gave up 6 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings against the Chicago White Sox. In his previous start versus Cincinnati, Kluber went 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs on 7 hits. Kluber has faced the Royals 3 times this year and the results have not been good. On May 7 Kluber lasted 5 3/3 innings giving up 5 runs and 7 hits. Coming back to face the Royals again on June 3, Kluber went 8 innings and gave up 4 runs on 9 hits. In his 1st start against the Royals this season Kluber tossed 6 1/3 innings giving up 6 runs, 4 of them earned, and allowed 10 hits. Kluber did manage to fan 21 Royals in the three losses. Despite his inability to beat the Royals, Kluber opened as a -160 favorite.
10:10 am Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins
Pitcher’s Duel Deluxe When Pirates Face Twins
Francisco Liriano versus Ervin Santana may seem like an obvious under. After all, Santana has decimated opposing batters in the second half of the season. Sitting at 2-0 with a 2.60 era, Santana has tossed 15 2/3 innings without allowing a run in the second half. In his last start he went 8 innings against his former team, the Angels, and shut them out. Francisco Liriano isn’t doing real bad, either. He’s 6-6 on the year with a 2.91 era. But before you run to the windows with fistfuls of cash, note this. In Liriano’s last start against the Twins, he only made it through 2 innings and gave up 7 runs on 5 hits, including 2 bombs. Of course that was in May. And you should also realize that Ervin Santa’s era at home this year is 13.50!
11:20 am Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
Cubs Finally Scored Some Runs!
After being humiliated in a 3 game series at home by the pitiful Phillies, the Cubs came to Coors Field and scored 9 runs in Monday’s game versus the Rockies. Tuesday the Cubs tried to keep their feeble hopes for a playoff alive by starting Dallas Beeler against the Rockies. That didn’t work out too well for them as the Rockies pounded out a 7-2 win in Chicago. On Wednesday, the Cubs will send out Jon Lester against Eddie Butler. The opening line of Cubs -260 would make you think that this game was all but over. That might be so. Butler is 3-6 with a 4.77 era. Lester is 5-8 with a 3.32 era. When was the last time you saw a 5-8 pitcher as a -260 favorite? Lester has a 3,38 era at home and is 2.53 in his last 3. But don’t get fooled by this one. Lester has an 0.77 era versus the Cubs. But those starts came in 2007 and 2010.
5:05 pm New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Tanaka Tries to Go On 4 Days Rest Against Rangers
Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t pitched on 4 days rest since he strained his right forearm on April 23. He’ll give it a go today against the Rangers and Colby Lewis. Tanaka is 7-3 with a 3.64 era. Tanaka has won his last 3 starts against Oakland, Seattle and Baltimore. He went 22 1/3 innings and allowed just 7 earned runs on 12 hits. More disturbing is the fact that Tanaka gave up 5 round trippers in his last 3 starts. Lewis may be called Lucky Lewis for now as he is 10-4 despite a 4.49 era. He’s 6-1 with a 4.30 era in his last 10 starts. Lewis is 3-1 with a 4.95 era at home and is 2-1 with a 4.50 era against the NYY in 3 starts.
7:10 pm Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw Takes 29 Inning Scoreless Streak to the Mound
If you’re looking for a heavy favorite, I may have found one for you. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw will be laying an opening line of -300 into tonite’s game. It’s true that Kershaw started off in a very ‘un-Kershaw like ‘ fashion. After all he is 8-6 and sports an era of 2.51. Lately though, he’s been back to the normal Kershaw. He’s dusted off the Phils, Nationals and Mets in that order without allowing an earned run. In those 26 innings he has given up 14 hits and fanned 38. He is 0-0 lifetime versus the A’s with a 0.66 era, But those starts came in 2009 and 2012. If you’re looking for a reason to bet against him, Sam Fuld is hitting 1.000 against Kershaw (1-1).
Free play – San Francisco Giants -125
Pitchers wind at Wrigley Field Wednesday
Andrew Caley
Pitchers could be given a hand by the wind when the Colorado Rockies visit the Chicago Cubs Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.
There will be a strong 13 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field during the game.
The pitchers who could benefit are Rockies right-hander Eddie Butler (4.77 ERA, 4-6 O/U) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester (3.32 ERA, 5-13 O/U). The Cubs are currently big -265 favorites with and the total is currently off the board.
Strong hitters wind at Target Field
Andrew Caley
Left-handed hitters will like the way the wind is blowing at Target Field Wednesday afternoon when the Minnesota Twins host the Pittsburgh Pirates.
There will be a very strong 20 mile per hour wind gusting out to right field during today’s game.
The Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano (2.91 ERA, 9-7 O/U)and the Twins right-hander Ervin Santana (2.60 ERA, 1-3 O/U) are the pitchers who will have to contend with the wind. The Twins are currently +118 home dogs, with a total of 7.5.
Why baseball bettors should pay attention to heat and humidity
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Pitching matchups, home field advantage, current form. These are the types of angles that even the most novice of baseball bettors consider before walking to the window to plunk down a chunk of cash with the hopes of a profitable return.
However, as the gambler’s level of sophistication increases, so too does his or her attention to detail when it comes to handicapping the matchup in question. Ballpark factors are integral in evaluating totals, while lefty/righty splits, line movements and situational analysis serve as important tools in gaining an edge when working to identify a potential winning wager.
You’ll sometimes encounter the phrase, “Paralysis by over analysis,” which simply implies that one can suffer adverse consequences from too much research. But one important key for all bettors, no matter the sport, should be to invest as much time in studying the game as much as possible, as long as that time is dedicated to sifting through the information that truly matters. The color of the road team’s jerseys means nothing.
Additionally, a piece of information such as, “The Chicago Bears are 0-7 ATS on Monday night football over the last 20 years,” could, on its face, appear to serve as a valuable slice of intel…right up until you realize that the Bears haven’t played on Monday night in 15 years. What does Chicago’s roster from 2002 have to do with Chicago’s roster in 2015?
That’s preciously where we come into play.
Today’s lesson/science experiment (gasp!) focuses on the influence weather, specifically heat and humidity, has on a baseball. We all know that centerfield gusts at Wrigley Field will lead to a longer ball flight, just as the higher elevation in Denver will also aid in carrying a baseball further through the air.
But what about heat and humidity and how these two weather factors affect a ball’s flight and trajectory?
The answer is relatively simple to regurgitate from any seventh grade science book: As air warms, it expands, which in turn lowers the air’s density while paving the way for a baseball to travel longer distances. The same can be said as it relates to humidity, as air with a higher dew point is less dense, meaning baseballs will travel further in higher humidity if all other factors are considered equal.
Simply put, the higher the temperature and/or humidity, the farther a baseball will travel. The good news here is that you don’t need to invest in meteorology lessons in order to improve your skills as a baseball bettor, as websites like Weather.com, AccuWeather.com and Baseball-Weather.com, among others, have all the information you need at just the few clicks of a mouse.
As we transition from rudimentary science back to gambling (hoorah!), the first element to consider is the fact that of the 30 ballparks that comprise Major League Baseball locales, one (Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida) is a fixed roof dome stadium while six others (Chase Field in Phoenix, Marlins Park in Miami, Miller Park in Milwaukee, Minute Maid Park in Houston, Rogers Centre in Toronto and Safeco Field in Seattle) feature retractable roofs. That means when the temperatures and humidity get too high in any of these seven cities, the likelihood is great that the game will be played indoors and away from the elements, which leaves us with 23 stadiums left to evaluate.
The next item on our checklist is to create an adequate sample size, but one that attempts to eliminate the “Steroid era” in Major League Baseball, as run production was at an all-time high during this period of time, which was vastly different than what we watch on television today. So with that in mind, we’ll use 2010 through the end of last week as our sample size.
Using the above parameters, here’s what we discovered:
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 95-99 DEGREES
Home teams: 86-63 (.577)
Total runs scored per game: 9.9
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 100-104 DEGREES
Home teams: 36-23 (.610)
Total runs scored per game: 10.2
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 105 DEGREES AND UP
Home teams: 5-3 (.625)
Total runs scored per game: 11.5
A cursory first glance at this data would likely indicate that home teams tend to fair better and produce more profitable results when playing in hotter weather. However, when you factor in the juice that is associated with most of these home favorites, the profit margins quickly decrease. So employing the simple strategy of backing home teams in hot weather is not something that we would advise.
However, it is absolutely worth noting the total number of runs produced in games with hotter temperatures. Compare what you see above to the average number of runs scored per game during this time frame:
2010: 8.76 runs/game
2011: 8.56 runs/game
2012: 8.65 runs/game
2013: 8.33 runs/game
2014: 8.13 runs/game
Combine those five years and you get an average of just 8.48 runs per game, which is a full three runs shy of the average runs scored in games with temperatures of 105 degrees or higher during the same time span. Additionally, you’ll note that games in the range of 95-99 degrees produce an average of 1.5 more runs per game while matchups in the range of 100-104 degrees produce an average of 1.74 more runs per outing.
As Stephen Hawking once famously said, “Science is not only a disciple of reason, but also one of romance and passion.”
In this instance it appears as if we are able to take our romance and passion surrounding baseball wagering and, combined with a science lesson in weather, determine yet another significant angle to consider when attempting to defeat the sports books.
See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bets
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
Lookahead spot
The Toronto Argonauts have been wandering the CFL landscape for six weeks now, including this Monday’s road trip to Hamilton to play the rival Ti-Cats.
Thanks to the Pan Am Games taking over the Rogers Centre for the past month, the Argos play their first five games away from home, starting with a “home” game in Fort McMurray, Alberta against the Eskimos in Week 1 then trips to Saskatchewan, Calgary, and British Columbia.
Road-weary Toronto wraps this grueling stretch of sked in Hamilton, with the welcoming domed confines of the “Sky Dome” just one week away. The Argonauts have been a solid wager, covering in each of those first four games, but could get caught looking ahead to a long-awaited home opener versus the Rough Riders the following Saturday. Books have Toronto set as a 4-point pup in Hamilton this Monday.
Letdown spot
The Alabama Crimson Tide aren’t wasting any time getting into the college football playoff mix, facing Wisconsin inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in Week 1 of the season. Books have the Tide set as 10.5-point favorites for that opener and also have Alabama listed as early 9.5-point chalk hosting Ole Miss in Week 3. Sandwiched between these monster matchups is a “cake walk” versus Middle Tennessee in Week 2.
The Blue Raiders are nothing more than guinea pigs for Nick Saban’s squad – an opportunity to fine tune what didn’t work in Week 1 and try some new things out before Week 2. Middle Tennessee is one of the better C-USA programs but will be getting a boatload of points against the SEC super power.
With the Tide in letdown mode after Wisconsin (and in a lookahead to a revenge spot against Mississippi) – and not wanting to reveal too much of the playbook before facing the Rebels – Alabama could fall short of this lofty number. The Tide are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
Schedule spot
The Cleveland Indians are looking to get away from home – and not for the usual reasons people want to leave Cleveland. The Tribe are mired in a nasty losing skid, dropping five in a row inside Progressive Field as of Tuesday. The Indians are currently hosting the Royals but must have their bags packed for a West Coast run starting Thursday.
Following a series finale with Kansas City Wednesday, Cleveland flies overnight to Oakland for four games with the Athletics then a three-game set with the Angels to round out the trip.
The Indians have actually been a solid wager away from Cleveland this season, with a 26-22 record as visitors – earning +3.52 units while burning up -23.14 units at home. The Tribe have a collective 3.46 ERA on the road – fourth lowest in the bigs. That pitching performance puffs up to 4.46 at home.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | ATLANTA at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under – Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after allowing 70 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
62-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.9% | 31.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
WNBA | SEATTLE at WASHINGTON
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (SEATTLE) average shooting team (40.5-43.5%) against an good defensive team (38-40.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better
93-46 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play Under – Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after playing a home game
445-288 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 128.2 units )
9-9 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.9 units )
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
Milwaukee Brewers + San Francisco Giants – OVER 7
(System Record: 52-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 52-52-1
Basketball Crusher
New York Liberty +1 over Indiana Fever
(System Record: 14-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 14-10-4
Soccer Crusher
Boca Juniors + Banfield – UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 791-25, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 791-645-14
Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today…
Baseball
New York Yankees + Texas Rangers – UNDER 8.5
Oakland Athletics + Los Angeles Dodgers – OVER 6
Minnesota Twins +115 over Pittsburgh Pirates
Basketball
Atlanta Dream +1.5 over San Antonio Silver Stars
EZWINNERS
MLB – (ACTION)
1* (913) Royals +$150
1* (918) Rangers +$136
1* (925) Phillies +$225
(Line from Americasbookie.com)