***ACC tournament Round 2: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet
ACC tournament action continues from Greensboro, North Carolina Wednesday.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers (-2)
Xavier Rathan-Mayes took on a bigger role in December after Aaron Thomas was ruled ineligible for the rest of the season and has prospered while also leading the team in assists (4.4). If the Seminoles are to make a run in the tournament, Montay Brandon (11.9 points, team-high 5.6 rebounds) and Devon Bookert (10.3 points), must come up big as well. Bookert has made a team-best 52 from 3-point range and 7-3 Boris Bojanovsky leads the Seminoles with 42 blocks.
Clemson sophomore Jaron Blossomgame averages 13.1 points and 8.2 rebounds this season after being a non factor in the conference tournament last March. Second-leading scorer Donte Grantham (8.9) has shot 26.4 percent from the field the last seven games, but the freshman averaged 12 points in two games against Florida State. Rod Hall chips in with 8.6 points and a team-best 3.4 assists while Landry Nnoko matched his career high by scoring 19 on Saturday.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Tigers last four vs. Atlantic Coast.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (-4)
The Panthers limp into the program’s second ACC Tournament appearance, losing their final three games by a total of 16 points. “We’re a better team than what we played this last week,” Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon said after the Panthers lost 61-52 Saturday at Florida State. Wednesday’s winner takes on second-seed Duke in Thursday’s quarterfinals.
The Wolfpack have allowed more than 65 points once in their past six games in going 5-1, and rank second in the ACC and 13th nationally with 5.5 blocked shots per game. Trevor Lacey leads N.C. State in scoring and is sixth in the conference in scoring at 16.1 points, scoring 19 points Saturday after going 10-of-37 from the field in his previous three games.
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 11-5 in Panthers last 16 overall.
* Wolfpack are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games.
***Big East tournament Round 1: NCAAB betting cheat sheet
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Seton Hall Pirates (-1)
Leading scorer Matt Carlino missed time with a concussion late in the season but returned for the last four games and hit 10 3-pointers over his final two regular-season contests. “I don’t think anyone can map out a season before the year and it goes that way,” Carlino said to the media after the win against DePaul. “So no, it’s not what I expected, but it’s been a good season. We have basketball left to play, so it’s not over yet.”
The last six weeks for Seton Hall have featured, among other things, a six-game losing streak, one starter leaving the team and the Pirates’ leading scorer getting suspended. The Pirates have dropped two straight heading into this tournament and likely need to string together some victories to potentially earn a postseason berth of any kind.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Creighton Bluejays vs. DePaul Blue Demons (+3.5)
The last win for the Bluejays came on the Blue Demons’ home court on Feb. 24, when they posted a 75-62 triumph behind James Milliken’s 18 points. That served as a measure of revenge for Creighton, which lost at home to DePaul on Jan. 7. Creighton’s top rebounder is 6-2 G Devin Brooks (4.8) and the Bluejays have been outrebounded by 28 during their current three-game slide.
The Blue Demons ended their regular season with a 58-48 loss to Marquette, shooting 32.8 percent from the floor, 3-of-18 from the arc and a paltry 3-of-6 from the foul line, not to mention a dozen turnovers. “We did miss some easy shots near the basket and in the lane,” DePaul coach Oliver Purnell said to reporters. “In a game like that, you need that. Couple that with a few turnovers that we had versus their 2-2-1 or wide and high zone, that was our undoing.”
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Blue Demons last five overall.
* Bluejays are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Blue Demons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
***Big Ten tournament Round 1: NCAAB betting cheat sheet
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (+2)
A loss to Penn State just over a month ago set off Nebraska’s longest losing streak in recent memory. The 12th-seeded Cornhuskers, who kick off the Big Ten tournament Wednesday in first-round action at Chicago versus the No. 13 seed Nittany Lions, improved to 5-5 in conference play following a 76-60 victory over Northwestern on Feb. 3. Nebraska dropped a 56-43 decision at Penn State four days later, beginning an eight-game skid that is the school’s worst since a nine-game slide in 2002-03.
The only single-digit losses over that span came in two games against Maryland, which downed the Cornhuskers 64-61 on Sunday. The Nittany Lions ended their own run of futility at Minnesota over the weekend, snapping a six-game losing streak when Big Ten scoring champion D.J. Newbill scored 12 of his 31 points over the last 5 ½ minutes, including the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer, to give his team its first win since defeating Nebraska. The 79-76 victory also allowed Penn State to win a close game in league action for a change after losing its previous five games decided by four points or fewer.
TRENDS:
* Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
* Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Cornhuskers last six overall.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-10.5)
Outside a 5-2 stretch that started with an 89-80 win over Rutgers on Jan. 17, Minnesota can relate to the struggles of its new Big Ten rival. After losing at the buzzer over the weekend and missing out on a chance to rest in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, the 11th-seeded Golden Gophers hope to create some momentum at the event Wednesday in Chicago against the Scarlet Knights. Minnesota opened league play with five straight losses and closed it by winning once in its final six games.
“(It was) a little bit fitting that we lose our last regular-season game on a 25-foot challenged shot because it just hasn’t quite gone our way this year. I’m not saying we are unlucky, but I don’t know if we’ve been lucky,” Pitino said after the Gophers fell 79-76 at home to Penn State on Sunday, falling to 2-7 in conference games decided by five points or fewer. Rutgers’ inaugural season in the Big Ten has been a forgettable one as the Scarlet Knights followed up their shocking win against Wisconsin on Jan. 11 with 14 straight defeats, resulting in its No. 14 seed. The losing streak is the program’s longest since a 16-game slide during the 1987-88 campaign.
TRENDS:
* Scarlet Knights are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten.
* Golden Gophers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last six overall.
* Golden Gophers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
***SEC tournament Round 1: NCAAB betting cheat sheet
Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1)
Antoine Mason will be back in the fold when Auburn begins play in the first round of the SEC Tournament against Mississippi State on Wednesday in Nashville. Mason, the 13th-seeded Tigers’ second-leading scorer, missed the final three games of the regular season following the death of his father, former NBA forward Anthony Mason. Auburn went 0-3 without its senior guard to extend its losing streak to six games.
The 12th-seeded Bulldogs were on a lengthy slide of their own before snapping a five-game skid with a 52-43 win over Missouri on Saturday. Craig Sword scored 15 points and Mississippi State held an SEC opponent under 50 points for the first time since 2008 and recorded its most lopsided conference win of the season. The nine-point gap eclipsed a 78-71 victory at Auburn on Jan. 21, which also represents the Bulldogs’ best offensive effort in league play.
TRENDS:
* Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
* Underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Tigers are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games.
* Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Southeastern.
Missouri Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-8.5)
The Tigers’ youth is one reason for its first losing season since 2006 but one of its newcomers appears to have figured a few things out, as freshman Namon Wright is stepping up the aggression on the offensive end. Including a career-high 28 points in a win over Florida on Feb. 24, Wright has posted four straight double-digit efforts while making 12-of-24 3-pointers. Wright and fellow first-year guard Montaque Gill-Caesar – who ranks third on the team in scoring behind Johnathan Williams III and Clark – missed the previous meeting with South Carolina due to a suspension.
Only Missouri struggled more from the field than the Gamecocks among SEC teams and only Mississippi State was worse from beyond the arc, but improvement in that area has fueled South Carolina’s slight turnaround. Behind Michael Carrera’s effort, the Gamecocks shot 51.2 percent in the win over Tennessee and have posted a 49.3 percent mark over their last three games, nearly nine percentage points better than their season average. Leading scorer Duane Notice has hit 9-of-19 triples in that span while senior Tyrone Johnson is averaging 18.7 points on 55.6 percent shooting.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Southeastern.
* Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win.
* Gamecocks are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. Southeastern.
* Under is 5-0 in Tigers last five overall.
***Pac-12 tournament Round 1: NCAAB betting cheat sheet
Washington State Cougars vs. Cal Golden Bears (-4)
Washington State center Josh Hawkinson is one of the most improved players in the country and he played well in the two games against the Golden Bears this season, producing 18 points and 12 rebounds in the first meeting and 18 points and 13 rebounds in the second. Hawkinson led the Pac-12 with 19 double-doubles in the regular season, most recently posting 21 and 10 in Saturday’s five-point overtime win against visiting Colorado.
The Golden Bears were without fourth-leading scorer Jabari Bird in their first clash with the Cougars, as he missed 10 games in December and early January with a broken foot. He had 12 points and eight rebounds against Washington State in late January and is averaging 14.7 points in the last four games to nudge his season average to 10.6.
TRENDS:
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Cougars are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Pacific-12.
* Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
USC Trojans vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-6)
The Trojans have three players ranking in the top 11 among all Pac-12 freshmen in scoring, rebounding and assists, but they’re also the worst shooting team in the league at 41.9 percent. Second-year coach Andy Enfield has a number of players to build around, including sophomore guard Julian Jacobs, who has averaged 11.9 points, seven assists and 6.6 rebounds over the last seven games.
Forward Shaquielle McKissic closed the regular season by claiming Pac-12 player of the week honors after averaging 22 points, seven rebounds and three steals in wins over Stanford and California. Point guard Tra Holder, a Pac-12 All-Freshman team selection, sparked the Sun Devils’ late-season charge by averaging 10.6 points and five assists over his last 12 games.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Trojans are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Sun Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.
* Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pacific-12.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Oregon State Beavers (+2)
Colorado enters this week’s Pac-12 tournament at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas as a 10th seed, but there’s reason to believe in the Buffaloes. Coach Tad Boyle’s squad begins play Wednesday with a first-round matchup against seventh-seeded Oregon State, which is down to seven available scholarship players and lost six of its final seven games. The key for Colorado could be the play of forward Josh Scott, who has averaged 22.3 points and nine rebounds over the past three games.
Scott battled back pain and was held to four points in Colorado’s 72-58 loss at Oregon State on Feb. 21, when the Buffaloes trailed by 22 points in the second half. Beavers guard Gary Payton II, an All-Pac-12 First Team selection who was also named the league’s defensive player of the year, recorded 24 points and seven blocks in the win and leads the team in scoring, rebounding, blocked shots and steals. Payton will need another stellar effort against the Buffaloes, who have advanced past the first round in every Pac-12 tournament since joining the league four years ago.
TRENDS:
* Buffaloes are 0-3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Buffaloes are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
* Beavers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Pacific-12.
* Buffaloes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Washington Huskies vs. Stanford Cardinal (-7)
Stanford comes in riding a season-long three-game losing streak, most recently a 22-point drubbing against regular-season conference champion Arizona. Stanford beat the Huskies by eight points in overtime on Jan. 4 and by 10 in regulation 18 days later. The biggest difference in the two games was the Huskies had 7-foot starting center Robert Upshaw in the first game but he was kicked off the team two days before the second meeting after averaging 10.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.5 blocks.
Nigel Williams-Goss figures to be one of the top scorers in the Pac-12 next season as five of the six players who averaged more points are seniors. Williams-Goss, a 6-3 sophomore point guard, scored 28 points in the regular-season finale against Utah to bump his average to 15.6. His matchup against Randle figures to be one of the key points of the game.
TRENDS:
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
* Cardinal are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Over is 11-4-1 in Huskies last 16 neutral site games.
***Big 12 tournament Round 1: NCAAB betting cheat sheet
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5)
Kansas State has only one way to stretch its streak of NCAA Tournament appearances to six and that is to win the Big 12 tournament title in Kansas City. The eighth-seeded Wildcats open play against ninth-seeded TCU on Wednesday and a dash to the title would require four consecutive victories, including one against top-seeded Kansas on Thursday. The Horned Frogs went 4-14 in conference play but are dangerous enough to knock off the Wildcats.
Kansas State is trying to avoid its first losing season since 2002-03 and the program’s streak of eight straight 20-win seasons is in extreme danger of ending. The Wildcats have issues scoring and the 62.9 average is on pace to be the school’s lowest since a 57.4 mark in the 1982-83 season. TCU has lost three straight games and loaded up on victories during nonconference play before once again struggling to record wins in Big 12 play.
TRENDS:
* Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12.
* Over is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last seven overall.
* Under is 9-3 in Wildcats last 12 overall.
* Under is 14-6-1 in Wildcats last 21 neutral site games.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns (-10)
There is little margin for error for Texas when it comes to the NCAA Tournament as the seventh-seeded Longhorns open play against 10th-seeded Texas Tech on Wednesday in the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. Texas is considered a bubble team and a one-and-done in the conference tournament against the last-place team will surely be a death knell. On the other hand, a deep run to the tournament championship game should limit the amount of sweating the Longhorns do on Selection Sunday.
Texas swept Texas Tech in regular season and the Red Raiders lost seven of their last eight games but coach Tubby Smith insists his club is playing better. “Over the last five games, we have made strides,” Smith told reporters. “We are shooting better, we have defended better and we have grown up a lot.” A victory over the Red Raiders would give Longhorns coach Rick Barnes his 15th 20-win campaigns in 17 seasons and would send Texas on to play second-seeded Iowa State.
TRENDS:
* Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last four vs. Big 12.
* Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
Championship Week – not the NCAA tournament – is the real March Madness
By Jason Logan
The NCAA tournament is for tourists.
You want the real March Madness? Try cramming every major-conference program as well as a truck full of mid-major teams into a week of basketball, with most of that condensed in a Thursday-to-Sunday window.
Then, try setting odds for every single one of those games, with a wave of new matchups the second those contests are through. And if that’s not enough, sick the sharpest sports bettors in the world on those odds and try to keep the book balanced.
“It’s like a duck on a pond,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “On top everything is peaceful and serene. But underneath, the duck is pedaling like crazy.”
Conference championship week doesn’t carry the pageantry of the NCAA tournament, but for those in the industry there is no busier time. It also doesn’t draw the massive crowds of public bettors, but caters more to the hardcore college hoops fans and professional handicappers.
“The handle for the NCAA tournament is probably a pretty close 50/50 split between sharp and public action. Conference tournament week,” says Rood, “is closer to a 60/40 or 70/30 split in favor of action from the wiseguys.”
Oddsmakers admit that setting odds for the first two big days of the NCAA tournament – Thursday and Friday – is much easier than trying to keep pace with the conference tournaments. And throughout the tournament, books have at least a full day between each teams’ next game.
Championship week not only challenges the oddsmakers to come up with lines for the next day on short notice but doesn’t allow them to come up for air until the whole thing is done Sunday evening – just before the Selection Committee picks its field of 68 and they have to handicap the opening matchups for the national tournament.
“We’re talking about five straight days of non-stop basketball,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook. “It’s exhausting but it’s also super exciting, with wall-to-wall games going. Personally, other than college bowl week from Christmas to January 1, this is my favorite week of the year.”
Despite the fatigue and short turnaround, books can’t afford to make any mistakes during championship week. Unlike the NCAA tournament, which is huge with the casual basketball bettors, the conference tournaments are shark infested waters with wiseguys just waiting for the books to slip and dunk their toe in.
“Our lines will be geared more towards what we think the sharps will do as opposed to what the public will do this week,” says Childs. “Next week (during the NCAA tournament), it’s the complete opposite.”
What is it about the conference tournaments – more than the national tournament – that draws the wiseguys? The overall consensus among sharps is the sheer abundance of games available. The more games, the more opportunities bettors have to find the matchup they want and cash in. It’s also a game of cat and mouse when the odds are released, chasing the added line value before books adjust their numbers.
Another reason championship week is more popular with sharps than the NCAA tournament is the familiarity between the programs. This not only works for situational bettors, looking to cash in on sweeps and revenge spots, but also when crunching the numbers for those conference tournaments.
“Using conference-only stats gives a great read on the teams as they all play common opponents within the same conference,” says Steve Merril. “In the NCAA tournament, you normally have teams that played zero common opponents and completely different schedule strengths, so it’s harder to set an accurate power rating.”
Mid-major conference tournaments have been rolling since last week but March Madness – the real March Madness – kicks into high gear Tuesday and Wednesday when the big boys get underway. ACC tournament opens Tuesday, with the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12 starting Wednesday. The AAC tournament tips off Thursday.
NCAAB major conference tournament betting breakdown
By Jason Logan
College basketball bettors were teased with a slate of mid-major conference tournaments last week, but now we get down to the nitty gritty. The seven major conferences headline the remaining tournaments this week, in what is truly one of the toughest tests for both sportsbooks and bettors.
With so many games on the go – and quick turnarounds – it’s nearly impossible to keep track of every team in every conference. In order to give you a head start on your handicapping, we highlight the seven major conference tournaments, breaking down the favorites to win, underdog contenders, and live long shots to look out for this coming week.
American Athletic Conference (March 12-15)
Favorite: SMU Mustangs +140 (24-6, 15-3 conference) – Someone has to win this conference and the Mustangs managed to lose just three games in AAC play. SMU plays great defense – 59.8 points allowed per game – and has great coaching with Larry Brown on the sidelines.
Underdog: Cincinnati Bearcats + 350 (22-9, 13-5) – The Bearcats have momentum on their side, winning five in row heading into the postseason. No. 3 Cincinnati won both meetings with SMU but drew a tough tournament opener, likely playing UConn in Hartford – pretty much the Huskies’ home court.
Long shot: Temple Owls +700 (22-9, 13-5) – The Owls have just two losses in their last 12 games, including a three-game winning run heading into the tournament. However, that pair of defeats came to SMU and Tulsa, the top two teams in the conference. The Owls have struggled to get over the hump in AAC.
Atlantic Coast Conference (March 10-14)
Favorite: Duke Blue Devils +125 (28-3, 15-3) – The Blue Devils are favorites despite finishing behind Virginia (+180) in the ACC standings. Duke is coming off a statement win in UNC (11th in a row) but hasn’t had much luck in the conference dance, failing to win the tournament crown the past three seasons.
Underdog: Louisville Cardinals +650 (24-7, 12-6) – Rick Pitino is a master at planning his players’ peaks at just the right time. Louisville enters its first ACC tournament off a win against No. 1 Virginia and riding a 4-1 run in its last five games. The Cardinals’ pressure defense – 14.5 forced turnovers/8.3 steals – makes them a threat in every game.
Long shot: North Carolina State Wolfpack +2,500 (19-12, 10-8) – The Wolfpack may have played their way into an NCAA at-large bid with their strong finish to the season, winning five of their last six games. NC State has some big names on its hit list, beating UNC, Duke, Louisville, so it won’t back down from a challenge. The Wolfpack crash the boards for 10.5 offensive rebounds a game.
Big 12 (March 11-14)
Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks +250 (24-7, 13-5) – The Jayhawks won the Big 12 title but are anything but invincible, losing their final game of the year to Oklahoma and losing to lower-tier teams KSU, WVU, and Oklahoma State in the past month. Leading scorer Perry Ellis is nursing a knee injury and forward Cliff Alexander is benched while under NCAA investigation.
Underdog: Iowa State Cyclones +400 (22-8, 12-6) – The Cyclones are a good price as the defending tournament champs and No. 2 seed. Iowa State has a deep scoring attack, ranked ninth nationally, that makes it very tough to clamp down on just one player. They’ve also showed toughness on the road at the perfect time.
Long shot: Texas Longhorns +800 (19-12, 8-10) – The fact a No. 7 seed is priced this low says oddsmakers fear the Longhorns. Texas is still trying to impress the selection committee and, in the process, save coach Rick Barnes from the firing squad. The Horns are long and athletic, leading the country in blocks (7.9 per game) and sitting fourth in total rebounds (39.8 per game).
Big East (March 11-14)
Favorite: Villanova Wildcats -150 (29-2, 16-2) – The Wildcats could be the most well-rounded team in college basketball. They went 22-8 ATS during the regular season and boast an average scoring margin of +15.1 points. Villanova could, however, draw Seton Hall in the opener. The Pirates were one of just two Big East teams to beat the Cats.
Underdog: Butler Bulldogs +550 (22-9, 12-6) – The Bulldogs are no strangers to postseason shockers. Butler is playing great basketball heading into the tournament, with wins in seven of its last 10. The Bulldogs rebound well, defending against the 3-pointer and have a deep offense, with six players scoring at least 7.5 points per game.
Long shot: St. John’s Red Storm +800 (21-10, 10-8) – The Johnnies took a four-game winning streak into this past weekend’s one-sided loss to Villanova, and have won seven of their last nine games heading into the Big East tournament. St. John’s is right at home in Madison Square Garden and have an experienced crew with five seniors and three juniors.
Big Ten (March 11-15)
Favorite: Wisconsin Badgers -110 (28-3, 16-2) – The Badgers showed just how good they truly are by slapping Ohio State across the face with a 24-point win in Columbus Sunday. Wisconsin can grind it out or fill it up on offense, with a deep attack anchored by unguardable 7-footer Frank Kaminsky. Traevon Jackson (ankle) is still a question mark for the postseason.
Underdog: Michigan State Spartans +700 (21-10, 12-6) – This is all on Tom Izzo. The Spartans should probably be bigger underdogs at than 7/1, but Branden Dawson is expected to play after a concussion scare and MSU did close out with two straight wins. Izzo will need to coach up the Green and White, who come in as the No. 3 seed but facing plenty of motivated teams on the NCAA bubble.
Long shot: Maryland Terrapins +900 (26-5, 14-4) – This could be the best deal of championship week. The Terps are the No. 2 seed, ride a seven-game win streak (including win over Wisconsin), and have the easiest path to the final. Maryland is loaded with experience and held opponents to just 60 points over that seven-game span.
Pac-12 (March 11-14)
Favorites: Arizona Wildcats -200 (28-3, 16-2) – The Wildcats are the cream of the crop in a top-heavy Pac-12, with really just two teams in the mix for the conference crown (along with Utah). Arizona has the second-highest scoring margin in the country at +17.7 points per win and went 20-11 ATS in the regular season.
Underdog: Oregon Ducks +1,200 (23-8, 13-5) – Oregon has quietly become one of the hottest teams in college hoops, with 5-0 SU and ATS run to end the season, including a notable win over Utah. The Ducks actually finished as the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12 (you’d never know by this futures price) and can either outgun their opponents – scoring 76 points per game – or get it done with defense, limiting foes to just 63.8 points during those final five games.
Long shot: UCLA Bruins +1,000 (19-12, 11-7) – UCLA has the talent on paper to contend for the Pac-12 title but can the Bruins beat anyone outside of Pauley Pavilion? UCLA went 2-7 SU on the road during conference play and watches its offense drop from 80.7 points per game to 60.3 away from home. The Bruins won three in a row to finish the season, has wins over Utah and Oregon, and played Arizona tough.
SEC (March 11-15)
Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats -400 (31-0, 18-0) – Finding a weakness in UK’s armor is tough. If anything, boredom is the Wildcats’ toughest opponent. Kentucky posted an average margin of victory of +21.2 points per game – the highest since Duke +24.7 in 1998-99 – but still only went 16-14-1 ATS. Fun fact: Kentucky hasn’t won an SEC tournament title since 2011 and have just two league crowns in the last 10 years.
Underdog: Arkansas Razorbacks +1,000 (24-7, 13-5) – The Razorbacks are the No. 2 team in the conference but pretty much any team could be in these last two spots. Arkansas, which scores 79 points a night (11th), gets the winner of the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game. It lost to the Vols already and Vandy is on a five-game tear, so it’s no clear road to the final.
Long shot: LSU Tigers +1,800 (22-9, 11-7) – The Tigers closed the regular season with a bang, taking down Arkansas in the schedule finale, and won four of their last five games. Louisiana State stood toe-to-toe with Kentucky in a 71-69 home loss and has some long and athletic size up front, blocking 6.1 shots per game dominating the glass with 39 total rebounds a game.
NBA Odds and Predictions: Wednesday, March 11 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
At this point, I don’t care which other games are on League Pass opposite Oklahoma City, even if it’s my favorite team: I’m tuning in to watch Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook. His triple-double assault continues in what could be a nice matchup against the Clippers’ Chris Paul — if Paul, who is beaten up, even plays. Westbrook is averaging 34.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 11.4 assists since the All-Star break. Here’s a look at that game and the rest of Wednesday’s slate.
Kings at Hornets (TBA)
Charlotte enters Tuesday holding down the final playoff spot in the East, and I believe that the Hornets get it over the likes of Miami, Boston or Brooklyn. The Hornets had a five-game winning streak end Monday, 95-69 at home to Washington. Charlotte shot 32.5 percent in tying its lowest-scoring game of the season. Sacramento is clearly dragging on an eight-game road trip as it has lost the past four, allowing at least 112 points in each game. The Kings were blasted 130-105 in Atlanta on Monday. DeMarcus Cousins was held to 12 points on 3-for-9 shooting. This is the first meeting of the season between the Kings and Hornets.
Key trends: The Kings have covered only four of their past 19 against teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 5-1 against the spread in their past six games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. The “over/under” has gone over in the Kings’ past six vs. the East.
Early lean: I’m not really sure why a TBA here. It could be due to the off chance Kemba Walker returns from his injury for Charlotte. I think the Hornets roll regardless.
Bulls at 76ers (+6.5, 188.5)
Down three of their best players, the Bulls are starting to feel it as they have dropped three straight games by at least 10 points each. They were beaten 101-91 at home by Memphis on Sunday. The only bright spot was the 43rd double-double of the season for Pau Gasol, tying his career high. Chicago hasn’t dropped four in a row yet this year. There’s a slight chance Taj Gibson returns here. Philly ended a four-game slid with a pretty stunning 92-84 home win over Atlanta on Saturday — well, not stunning if you read these stories. That was a huge letdown game for the Hawks. The 76ers rallied from a 16-point hole to win for just the second time in 11 games. It helped that Atlanta rested three starters. The Bulls lead the season series with the Sixers 1-0.
Key trends: The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 4-0 in the past four in Philly.
Early lean: Sixers and under.
Grizzlies at Celtics (+5, 194.5)
Memphis won by 10 in Chicago on Monday in Game No. 2 of a four-game road trip. Marc Gasol had 23 points on 10-for-16 shooting. The Grizzlies improved to 16-6 with Jeff Green in the starting lineup. Boston has won three of four and took a 100-90 decision in Miami on Monday as Isaiah Thomas had 25 points off the bench. He took a nasty fall in the final minutes but should play. Avery Bradley has missed three straight games and is targeting this game to return.
Key trends: Memphis has failed to cover seven straight vs. teams with a losing record. Boston is 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven at home. The Grizzlies are a crazy 13-1 ATS in their past 14 in Boston.
Early lean: Grizzlies and under.
Nets at Heat (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for Brooklyn, which hosted New Orleans on Tuesday. I fully expect Miami to be short-handed here because center Hassan Whiteside surely will be suspended at least one game for a cheap flagrant foul on Boston’s Kelly Olynyk in Monday’s 100-90 Heat home loss. Whiteside was ejected for the second time in the past four games. Miami played that game without Udonis Haslem and big addition Goran Dragic. Both are called day-to-day. Miami is 3-0 vs. Brooklyn this season.
Key trends: The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road. The under is 7-1 in their past eight in the second of a back-to-back. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.
Early lean: Wait on Whiteside and Dragic.
Magic at Bucks (TBA)
Orlando played in Indiana on Tuesday. Center Nik Vucevic was expected to play after missing the previous two games with an ankle injury. Milwaukee lost for the fifth time in six games Monday, 114-103 at home against the Pelicans. There were two bright spots for Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo had a career-high 29 points and Michael Carter-Williams 25, his most since joining the Bucks in a trade. O.J. Mayo sat out for the sixth time in seven games with right hamstring soreness.
Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-3 in the past 10.
Early lean: Bucks will win this one.
Clippers at Thunder (-5, 213.5)
Los Angeles ended a two-game slide with an 89-76 home win over Minnesota on Monday. DeAndre Jordan had 20 points and 17 rebounds. The Clips were without an injured Jamal Crawford (and Blake Griffin again), and Paul was very clearly nowhere near 100 percent with a bruised knee (don’t be shocked if he sits this out). The Thunder beat Toronto 108-104 behind another absurd game from Westbrook: 30 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds. OKC also got back center Steven Adams from an eight-game injury absence. The Clips and Thunder have split two meetings.
Key trends: The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.
Early lean: Thunder and under.
Hawks at Nuggets (+6, 210)
Atlanta crushed visiting Sacramento 130-105 on Monday to become the first team in the league to 50 wins. The 130 points were a season high and the 20 made 3-pointers were a franchise record. Atlanta shot 60.2 percent overall and 55.6 percent from long range. Denver has been much more competitive under interim coach Melvin Hunt, improving to 3-2 with Monday’s home blowout of the Knicks. Under Hunt, the Nuggets have scored 100 or more points in all five games. Center Jusuf Nurkic took part in the morning shootaround but is still out because of a sprained right ankle.
Key trends: Atlanta has covered two of its past nine vs. teams with a losing record. The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their past nine at home. The under is 6-1 in Denver’s past seven at home.
Early lean: Atlanta and over.
Timberwolves at Suns (-4, 209.5)
Minnesota lost by 13 at the Clippers on Monday, the Wolves’ 12th straight defeat in that series. Adreian Payne got the start in place of Kevin Garnett (rest) and had 16 points and 15 rebounds. Andrew Wiggins had 11 points on 5-for-16 shooting. Phoenix has lost two straight by double-digits, albeit to NBA title favorites Cleveland and Golden State. Brandon Knight left Monday’s loss to the Warriors with an ankle injury, so he’s questionable. After seeing it, I don’t think he plays. The Suns are 2-1 vs. the Wolves, all three games high-scoring.
Key trends: The Wolves are 5-0 ATS in the past five in Phoenix. The over is 4-1 in Phoenix’s past five following a double-digit home loss.
Early lean: I think Knight sits so I’ll take the points. Go over regardless.
Pistons at Warriors (-14.5, 207.5)
Detroit was at the L.A. Lakers on Tuesday. Golden State has won four straight games, each by at least eight points. The Warriors blasted the Suns in Phoenix on Monday behind 36 points from Steph Curry — 25 in the second half. It was Curry’s 13th 30-point game of the year. Golden State scored 33 points off 18 Phoenix turnovers. It’s the first time in franchise history that the Warriors have reached 50 wins in 62 games. The Warriors won by 11 in Detroit on Nov. 30.
Key trends: The Warriors have covered only two of their past 13 vs. the East. The under is 4-0 in Golden State’s past four at home. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings.
Early lean: Hate giving that many points, but with Detroit playing Tuesday I will. Go over.
Rockets at Trail Blazers (-3, 207.5)
Portland’s first game since losing heart-and-soul Wesley Matthews for the season went about as expected: a flat 121-113 defeat at Minnesota on Saturday. Damian Lillard had 32 points, eight assists and seven rebounds for Portland, which had won five straight. As expected, Arron Afflalo got the start for Matthews and had 14 points. Houston won a second straight Saturday, 114-100 in Denver. James Harden had 28 points as the Rockets ended a three-game road skid. Houston and Portland have split two meetings.
Key trends: Houston is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 6-1 in the past seven in Portland.
Early lean: Blazers and over.
POINTWISE
NBA BASKETBALL
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11 SCORE
(7:05) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 100 – Chicago Bulls 99 _____ _____
(7:05) Sacramento Kings 99 – CHARLOTTE 98 _____ _____
(7:35) Memphis Grizzlies 112 – BOSTON CELTICS 101 _____ _____
(7:35) MIAMI HEAT 106 – Brooklyn Nets 99 _____ _____
(8:05) MILWAUKEE BUCKS 115 – Orlando Magic 98 _____ _____
(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 111 – LA Clippers 105 (ESPN) _____ _____
(9:05) Atlanta Hawks 114 – DENVER NUGGETS 102 _____ _____
(10:05) PHOENIX SUNS 112 – Minnesota Timberwolves 90 _____ _____
(10:35) PORTLAND 105 – Houston Rockets 98 (ESPN) _____ _____
(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 117 – Detroit Pistons 101 _____ _____
BEST BETS: MILWAUKEE (1), ATLANTA, PHOENIX (2), GOLDEN ST.
SOCCER BETTING MASTERS
Scotland » Championship » Hibernian – Livingston
Opinion: Hibernian -1 (Asian handicap)
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER (Soccer UEFA CL)
4* Chelsea ML-110