by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, August 27, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
I think it’s fair to say that Boston’s big free-agent signing of former Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez this past offseason has been one of the worst moves this decade. The Sox gave him a four-year, $88 million deal with an addition vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. They did this despite the fact Ramirez really could only play shortstop and third base. He had never played in the outfield. But Boston stuck him in left, and Ramirez has been one of the worst defensive players in the majors. In fact, by Fangraphs overall WAR, Ramirez is the worst player overall because he’s also hitting only .252 with a .293 on-base percentage. The news came out on Tuesday that Ramirez will be moved to first base next season, and that makes sense. You might see him play there some to close this season as the Red Sox have nothing to play for, so they might as well get a head start. They have plenty of good outfielders (likely Rusney Castillo) to take over for Ramirez.
♦Dodgers at Reds (+175, 7)♦
The Dodgers are hopeful they will get All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal back here, but with such an early start (12:35 p.m. ET) I think it’s more likely the team waits until Friday. He hasn’t played since Saturday due to a sore left shoulder. Grandal is hitting .275 with 15 homers and 44 RBIs. The Dodgers shouldn’t need much offense to win this one as NL Cy Young favorite Zack Greinke (13-3, 1.67) is on the mound. The big-league leader in ERA held the Reds to one run and six hits over seven innings in a win on Aug. 16. Jay Bruce is just a .182 hitter off him in 33 at-bats. Joey Votto is 12-for-27 with three homers. Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani (7-9, 3.97) was opposite Greinke in that game and allowed two runs in six innings in taking the loss. He was hit hard last time out by Arizona, however.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 5-0 in Greinke’s past five Thursday starts. The Reds are 1-4 in DeSclafani’s past five at home. The “over/under” is 4-1 in Greinke’s past five vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 4-1-1 in DeSclafani’s past six overall.
Early lean: Dodgers on runline and under.
♦Blue Jays at Rangers (+127, 9.5)♦
Monitor the status of Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor here as he left Tuesday’s game in the seventh inning with a finger injury. But X-rays are negative, so he’s day-to-day; he lost the middle finger nail (ouch!). Odor is having a fine second season, batting .280 with 11 homers and 43 RBIs. Texas starts Yovani Gallardo (10-9, 3.25) here. It’s a good thing he wasn’t traded at the July 31 deadline as rumored as the Rangers are right in the wild-card mix. Gallardo won in Toronto on June 27, shutting out the Jays on three hits over 8.1 innings. Edwin Encarnacion is 5-for-14 with three homers and six RBIs off him. Troy Tulowitzki is a career .458 hitter off him in 24 at-bats. Toronto’s Marco Estrada (11-7, 3.27) hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his past five. He hasn’t faced Texas this year. Mitch Moreland is 2-for-2 with a homer off him.
Key trends: The Jays are 5-1 in Estrada’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Rangers are 8-1 in Gallardo’s past nine vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 6-1 in Estrada’s past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Gallardo’s past four.
Early lean: Rangers Jays and under.
♦Cubs at Giants (-178, 7)♦
San Francisco might be without All-Star shortstop Brandon Crawford for a bit. He left in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s game against the Cubs when his left side tightened up. If that’s an oblique injury, Crawford is going to be out a while. Last thing the injury-ravaged Giants need is another regular on the DL. They start ace lefty Madison Bumgarner (15-6, 3.02) in this one. The Cubs missed him when they recently swept four from San Francisco at Wrigley. In four August starts, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA. Starlin Castro hits him well, going 10-for-24. Chicago’s Dan Haren (8-8, 3.76) has allowed at least three runs and yet to last more than 5.1 innings in four starts since being acquired from the Marlins. He is 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts this year against San Francisco.
Key trends: The Cubs are 6-2 in their past eight vs. a lefty. The Giants are 5-0 in Bumgarner’s past five at home. The under is 5-0 in his past five at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Giants on runline and under.
♦Twins at Rays (-155, 7.5)♦
Both these overachieving teams refuse to die in the wild-card race. Tampa starts lefty Drew Smyly (1-2, 3.42) in the series finale. He has made two starts since missing more than three months on the DL, and Smyly was pretty good in the second one, shutting out Oakland on six hits over 5.2 innings last time out. Joe Mauer is 2-for-13 off him. Trevor Plouffe is 2-for-7 with two doubles. Minnesota lefty Tommy Milone (6-3, 3.69) pitched an inning of relief on Sunday and retired the Orioles in the 12th to earn his first career save. That has been his only relief appearance this season. Milone hasn’t faced the Rays in 2015. Evan Longoria is 1-for-5 with a double off him.
Key trends: The Twins are 1-8 in their past nine vs. a lefty. The Rays are 6-1 in their past seven vs. a southpaw. The under is 11-1 in Smyly’s past 12 overall.
Early lean: Rays and under.
♦Orioles at Royals (-140, 8)♦
Baltimore is slumping at the wrong time and dropping down in the wild-card standings. It took a six-game losing streak into Wednesday. For Thursday’s series finale, the O’s go with Chris Tillman (9-8, 4.51). He had won seven straight decisions until that ended last time out vs. the Twins when Tillman allowed three runs in 6.2 innings. It was his first loss since May 31. Kansas City’s Ben Zobrist is just 6-for-37 career off him but with three homers. The Royals’ Yordano Ventura (8-7, 4.64) hasn’t lost since July 20. He has allowed only three earned combined over his past three starts. Matt Wieters is 2-for-4 off him. Adam Jones is 0-for-7.
Key trends: Baltimore is 11-4 in Tillman’s past 15 vs. the AL Central. The Royals are 4-1 in Ventura’s past five at home. The under is 8-1 in Tillman’s past nine. The over has hit in eight of Ventura’s past 12 following a quality start in his previous appearance.
Early lean: Desperate Orioles and over.
These MLB clubs are runaway money makers when betting the runline
By Joe Fortenbaugh
The bulk of our season-long MLB betting analysis focuses on specific trends as they pertain to wagering on the moneyline, since it’s the most popular selection for baseball bettors. However, we’re going to shift gears for a bit to talk about the runline, which is essentially baseball’s way of incorporating a pointspread.
How it works is quite simple, as the favorite is listed at -1.5 runs while the underdog is posted at +1.5 runs. Betting the favorite means you have to win by two or more runs, while supporting the dog requires a worst-case-scenario loss of no greater than one run.
Many bettors prefer to take advantage of the runline as opposed to the moneyline because it offers up the opportunity to bet on favorites with less risk. For example, starting pitcher Jacob deGrom and the Mets were posted as -250 moneyline favorites for their showdown with Philadelphia (+210) Monday night. But the runline offered the opportunity to play New York -1.5 at the more reasonable price of -130, with the Phillies available to purchase at +1.5, +120.
As it relates to the 2015 MLB season, let’s commence our analysis by examining which clubs have performed at the most profitable of levels in regards to the runline:
Stats and record as of August 15, 2015.
Top-5 MLB runline teams (PLAY ON)
1. Texas Rangers: 75-48 (.610)
2. Minnesota Twins: 73-51 (.589)
3. Kansas City Royals: 69-54 (.561)
T4. Tampa Bay Rays: 69-55 (.556)
T4. Toronto Blue Jays: 69-55 (.556)
T4. San Francisco Giants: 69-55 (.556)
It comes as no surprise to see Kansas City and Toronto on this list, as both clubs not only sit atop their respective divisions at the moment, but are a combined 42 games over .500 entering Tuesday’s slate of action.
In addition, the defending champion San Francisco Giants may find themselves 1.5 games out in the National League West, but the Orange & Black currently rank seventh in run differential.
What bettors should be paying particular attention to is the fact that big profits have been there for the taking when it comes to Texas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay, who are a combined six games over .500 through approximately 124 games of action. That’s the type of runline production that pads a bankroll.
Bottom-5 MLB runline teams (PLAY AGAINST)
1. Seattle Mariners: 52-72 (.419)
T2. Washington Nationals: 52-70 (.431)
T2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 53-70 (.431)
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 54-70 (.435)
5. Boston Red Sox: 55-69 (.444)
At 12 games under .500 despite a Top-5 payroll, the Red Sox have been an absolute dumpster fire this season. Similar sentiments can be echoed regarding the Mariners, who were a very popular World Series pick prior to the start of the 2015 campaign.
Where the real money has been available for the taking has been in fading current playoff contenders the Nationals, Dodgers and Angels. Despite owning a collective mark of 14 games above .500, those clubs combine for a staggering 51 games under .500 in regards to the runline.
To put that in perspective, it’s been just as lucrative this season betting on the Minnesota runline as it has been wagering against the Washington runline.
Top-5 MLB runline teams coming off a win (PLAY ON)
1. San Francisco Giants: 42-24 (.636)
2. Minnesota Twins: 39-23 (.629)
3. Texas Rangers: 39-24 (.619)
4. Houston Astros: 41-28 (.594)
5. Tampa Bay Rays: 36-26 (.581)
Four repeat offenders appear on this list just as they did the Top-5 list above, but the important note to take away from this information is as follows: Not only are these five clubs producing significant profits as it relates to runline bets following a win, but three of them (San Francisco, Minnesota and Texas) are cashing at the highly lucrative rate of more than 60 percent. When these organizations win, they tend to do so in bunches.
Bottom-5 MLB runline teams coming off a win (PLAY AGAINST)
1. Seattle Mariners: 19-37 (.339)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 26-41 (.388)
3. Boston Red Sox: 22-34 (.393)
4. Cleveland Indians: 23-35 (.397)
5. Oakland A’s: 22-31 (.415)
Eliminate the Oakland A’s and you’re left with four teams who are providing returns of 60 percent of higher when it comes to fading a club on the runline following a win. That’s the type of profitability that puts one in excellent position for the start of football season in September.
Top-5 MLB runline teams when playing on the road (PLAY ON)
1. Texas Rangers: 48-17 (.738)
2. Tampa Bay Rays: 39-23 (.629)
3. Minnesota Twins: 38-24 (.613)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 38-26 (.594)
5. New York Mets: 36-25 (.590)
A warm welcome to the Diamondbacks and Mets for making an appearance in this column, but don’t lose sight of what’s really important here: In this wagering subset, the Texas Rangers are winning at the astronomical rate of 73.8 percent. Not only that, but once again, Tampa Bay and Minnesota are producing returns north of 60 percent. These are certainly three teams worth monitoring very closely over the rest of the regular season.
Bottom-5 MLB runline teams when playing on the road (PLAY AGAINST)
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 21-40 (.344)
2. Washington Nationals: 29-37 (.439)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 30-36 (.455)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 28-31 (.475)
5. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 28-30 (.483)
We’ve already discussed how surprising it is to see playoff contenders like the Nationals and the Dodgers on this list, and it’s as equally unsurprising to observe a bottom-dweller like Philadelphia make an appearance on a bottom-5 gambling rundown. But how about the Pittsburgh Pirates?
Andrew McCutchen & Co. currently rank third in MLB in total wins and fifth in run differential while owning an ultra-impressive 44-20 mark when playing within the friendly confines of PNC Park. Despite all the success the Pirates have enjoyed this season, the Bucs are still three games under .500 when it comes to runline road wagers. Be sure to keep this in mind as the playoff push heats up in September.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: ‘Overs’ aplenty at Safeco Field
By Jeese Schule
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major-league schedule:
Desert Heat
The Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging over 6.5 runs per game, batting .322 since July 25th. They’ve won 18-of-28 games during that span, and return home from a successful road trip to host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals lost 2-of-3 in San Diego, and could be in for a tough series against a hot Diamondbacks team.
Runs At Wrigley
The Cubs are on a roll, winners of 13 of their last 16. They come off a four game sweep of the Braves at Wrigley, out-scoring Atlanta 40-14 in those games. They’ve gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and that trend could continue in the Windy City as they host the Indians on Monday.
Blue Jays Battery
The Jays broke another record this weekend, scoring the most runs in a three game series in club history (36) in a sweep of the Angels in Anaheim. Toronto has seized the top spot in the AL East, moving a half game up on the Yankees. The Jays will be in Texas this week, and you should expect fireworks in Arlington.
Hitting Notes
*Josh Donaldson was 4-for-5 with a double, a home run and six RBIs on Saturday, helping the Jays beat the Angels by a score of 15-3 in Anaheim. He became the first player in the majors to reach 100 RBIs, and he second on the American League with 34 home runs.
*Yoenis Cespedes is proving to be a valuable acquisition for the Mets, and he had himself quite a series in Colorado over the weekend. Cespedes was 7-for-15 with three home runs and eight RBIs in a three game sweep of the Rockies.
Pitching Notes
*Madison Bumgarner did it again on Friday, hitting another home run in a win over the Pirates in Pittsburgh. He had a double, a home run and a pair of RBIs in his previous start.
*Mike Fiers tossed a no-hitter at home versus the Dodgers on Friday, striking out 10 in a 3-0 win. He’s now 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts since coming over from Milwaukee. His next start comes on the road in Minnesota on Friday.
Totals Streak
We think of Safeco as one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors, but that hasn’t been the case lately. The Mariners have seen the total go over at a rate of 20-5-3 in their last 28 home games. Their bullpen can take a lot of the blame, only two teams in the majors (Oakland and Colorado) rank worse than the Mariners who’s releivers own a 4.45 ERA this season.
Injury Notes
*David Wright is set to return to the lineup for the Mets on Monday as they face the Phillies. He’s batting .433 with a home run and eight RBIs in 30 career at bats versus Aaron Harang, who will start on Thursday.
*C.C. Sabathia left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, and he’ scheduled to have an MRI on Monday. With a record of 4-9 with a 5.27 ERA, the Yankees aren’t likely to rush him back.
PGA Playoffs begin in Edison Thursday
By Freddy Wander
“The Barclays”
Tees Off: Thursday, August 27th
Plainfield Country Club – Edison, NJ
The first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs kicks off this week at Plainfield Country Club as 119 of the top-125 players from the regular season meet up and attempt to move up the ladder and eventually compete in the TOUR Championship in the end. After last week, five players (Jason Gore, Davis Love III, Jonas Blixt, Camillo Villegas and Ryo Ishikawa) used the Wyndam Championship to jump into the top-125 as Love III made the largest move, going from 186th to 76th after posting a 17-under score and defeating another bubble-buster in Jason Gore by a single stroke. The field will also feature plenty of first-year players as nine rookies are making the trip to their debut in these playoffs and are led by Justin Thomas (36th), Tony Finau (39th) and Daniel Berger (46th) in the top-50. The top players in the FedEx Cup standings are quite impressive heading into these events, which count for four times the amount of points as a typical PGA event, as world No. 1 Jordan Spieth sits 1,710 points ahead of world No. 3 Jason Day for the current lead. The rest of the top-five features world No. 4 Bubba Watson, No. 14 Jimmy Walker and No. 5 Justin Rose. A win in a playoff event will earn the victor 2,000 points, so with the top-25 all within 3,000 of Spieth, there will be a lot of movement if someone can get hot in the next month. Last year, it was Hunter Mahan who was able to grab the trophy at this event, defeating three golfers by two strokes and jumping from 62nd to 1st in the standings. He was not the eventual winner of the whole thing, though, as Billy Horschel won both the BMW and TOUR Championships to be crowned the FedEx Cup Champion. A different player has won here in each of the past six seasons, with five being from the United States and the exception being Adam Scott in 2013. There will be one multiple-time winner here with Vijay Singh (1993, 1995, 2006, 2008) returning to an event where he is obviously comfortable. The par-70, 7,012-yard course has hosted this tourney just once in the past (2011), and there was plenty of scoring to go around as Dustin Johnson posted a tournament record tying score of 19-under-par despite the event being shortened to 54 holes due to inclement weather. There were another four players who were at 15-under or better, a score that would have won this event in the past six seasons not including 2011. So with the competition heating up, let’s look at a few players who could do well in New Jersey come Sunday afternoon.
Justin Rose: Rose has been able to maintain his high standing in the OWGR thanks to yet another impressive season in which he has been in the top-three four times; including getting his seventh career victory at the Zurich Classic. He has been lighting up the TOUR recently, getting a sixth or better in five of his last six times out and was 25-under between the Open and PGA Championship as he is coming off a fourth at Whistling Straits. Rose has had no problem performing each and every year since 2010, making it to the TOUR Championship every season and if he can continue to perform he should improve on his career-best fifth-place standing. The Englishman should have no issues doing well once again as he ranks in the top-10 in GIR (70.62%, 8th on TOUR), strokes gained from tee-to-green (1.457, 5th on TOUR), sand save percentage (63.1%, 5th on TOUR) and scoring average (69.830, 7th on TOUR).
Jim Furyk: Furyk is one of the steadiest players on TOUR and has been for years, so it was no surprise that despite being 45-years-old and in the middle of a youth movement, he has been able to finish the regular season in 18th in the standings while holding the sixth spot in the OWGR. The 17-time PGA TOUR winner already has a victory on the year, and in his 14 made cuts has been able to finish in the top-25 eight times. Furyk didn’t exactly tear it up in the two most recent majors, tying for 30th each time, but put up a third at the RBC Canadian Open and a fourth at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He plays a precision game, hitting 68.61% of fairways (21st on TOUR), 69.25% of GIR (28th on TOUR) and has gained 1.585 strokes on the field from tee-to-green (4th on TOUR). With the top players in the game being young enough to be his sons, it is no surprise that Furyk often gets overlooked, but he will almost always be in contention and is a safe bet every week.
Bill Haas: Haas has managed to put together a solid 2015 campaign with made cuts in 16-of-21 events (76%) and is turning it on of late with three top-25s in his past four events. He tallied two top-sixes in that recent stretch and is coming off a great performance in the Wyndam Championship, racking up a score of 14-under-par and finishing in a tie for sixth behind 77.78% of greens hit in regulation. He’s always been a strong contender in the FedEx Cup, coming away as the champion in 2011 and has done no worse than 31st each year since 2010. Haas will look to build on his tie for 24th that he earned here in 2011 as he is currently one of the best ballstrikers in the game (0.841 strokes gained from tee-to-green, 26th on TOUR) and hits tons of GIR (68.81%, 36th on TOUR).
Russell Henley: Henley is a former Web.com standout, winning three times on the lesser tour before bringing his winning ways to the PGA. Since joining the TOUR, the 26-year-old has finished the weekend on top of the leaderboard twice and was very impressive in 2014 with a final standing of 19th in the FedEx Cup. He has been more consistent this year with 18 cuts made in 21 events (86%) and has been playing great of late with a top-20 standing in each of his last four outings. The last three were major events, The Open Championship, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA Championship, and in those tough tourneys was able to post a combined score of 18-under-par. His biggest strength is with the flat stick as he ranks seventh in strokes gained putting (0.621) and that should aid him in having another big week amongst a strong field.
Greg Owen: Owen has been all over the place in 2015, making just 9-of-18 cuts, but has improved leaps and bounds since missing the weekend in six of his first nine tournaments. Since the Zurich Classic, the English-born 43-year-old has a runner-up performance at the FedEx St. Jude Classic and another three top-20s in the last four events. One of those was on his European soil as he tied for 20th at the Open Championship with a score of seven-under. He is able to get on greens in regulation plenty (69.25% GIR, 28th on TOUR), but will need to improve his putting (-.721 strokes gained putting, 188th on TOUR) in order to compete this weekend. Owen has yet to lock down a victory on the PGA TOUR in 219 career attempts, but is playing at a high level and is worth taking a chance on with the large odds.
The Sports Xchange’s
10 Players to Watch: ‘The Barclays’
1. Jordan Spieth, United States — The newest No. 1 player in the World Golf Rankings is the favorite everywhere he plays these days after a regular season in which he won four times, including the Masters and U.S. Open, and finished second four other times among his 14 top-10 finishes. Spieth is an even bigger pick this week in the playoff opener, the Barclays, with No. 2 Rory McIlroy staying home to rest a left ankle injury that knocked him out of his title defense in the Open Championship. Spieth, who has a huge lead in the FedEx Cup standings, is making his third start in the Barclays, having tied for 19th in 2013 and tied for 22nd last year.
2. Dustin Johnson, United States — In spite of more heartbreak in the majors, it was another solid season for Johnson, and he can salvage even more from it in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He ranks seventh in the point standings and he won the Barclays in 2011, the only other time it was held at Plainfield Country Club in Edison, N.J. The tournament was limited to three rounds that year with Hurricane Irene bearing down on the Northeast, and Johnson reeled off scores of 66-63-65 in the soft conditions to win by two strokes over Matt Kuchar. Johnson has two other top-10 finishes in the Barclays, including a tie for third three years ago in his title defense at Bethpage Black, and a tie for ninth in 2010 at Ridgewood Country Club.
3. Jason Day, Australia — If not for Jordan Spieth, Day probably would be the Player of the Year on the PGA Tour, as he has three victories among his eight top-10 finishes this season. He should be well-rested after taking two weeks off following his major breakthrough in the PGA Championships at Whistling Straits, but he still should have plenty of momentum after winning two of his past three times out. The Aussie finished 12th or better in each of his past five starts, three of them majors, and he has played well in the Barclays. In fact, he could have won it last year at Ridgewood, where he finished 64-68-68, only to end up in a tie for second, one stroke behind Hunter Mahan. Day tied for 13th four years ago at Plainfield.
4. Bubba Watson, United States — Another player enjoying a superb season, with two victories, three runner-up finishes and a third-place result under his belt, Watson opens the playoffs trailing only Jordan Spieth and Jason Day in the FedEx Cup standings. So with a little more luck, or had a few more made putts, it could have been a monster year. Watson, who has never won in the playoffs, could make a run at the FedEx Cup if he can maintain that form. However, he has not had much success in the Barclays. A tie for 10th in 2012 was his best result, and he missed the cut four times in nine appearances — including when the tournament was last played at Plainfield four years ago.
5. Justin Rose, England — Despite playing well enough this season to rank fifth in the FedEx Cup standings, Rose has been overshadowed by the brilliant seasons of Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Bubba Watson. He can make up for that in the playoffs, starting this week in the Barclays, in which he tied for second two years ago, one stroke behind Adam Scott of Australia. Rose also tied for sixth four years ago at Plainfield, this week’s venue. His only victory this year came in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but he has been very close several other times, especially lately — finishing in the top six in each of his past four tournaments and losing in a playoff at the Memorial two events before starting that streak.
6. Rickie Fowler, United States — One year after finishing in the top five in all four majors, Fowler didn’t play nearly as well in the Grand Slam events this season, with his best result a tie for 12th in the Masters. However, he claimed the biggest victory of his career in a playoff at the Players Championship, and he also capture the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open, giving him two victories in his past nine starts. Fowler, who also came close when he finished second in the Travelers Championship and tied for third in the WGC-HSBC Champions, is 15th in the FedEx Cup standings heading to the Barclays, in which he tied for ninth each of the past two years. He tied for 52nd four years ago at Plainfield.
7. Matt Kuchar, United States — Although he didn’t have his normal quota of top-10 finishes his season, managing only five, Kuchar seemed to heat up as the summer went along by tying for 12th in the U.S. Open, tying for seventh in the RBC Canadian Open and most recently earning another tie for seventh in the PGA Championship. He is 26th in the FedEx Cup standings and must play well early in the playoffs to ensure he will be in the top 30 who qualify for the Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta. The Barclays would seem to be a good place for Kuchar to start, as he won the tournament in 2010 at Ridgewood, finished second the next year at Plainfield and tied for fifth last year at Ridgewood.
8. Brooks Koepka, Unites States — Even though he is on quite a run, the rookie is flying under the radar a bit because of the great seasons by Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Bubba Watson. Koepka, who claimed his first PGA Tour victory in the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February, finished in the top 25 in his past eight tournaments around the world, including no worse than a tie for sixth in the past three. Included in that run are 16 sub-70 scores in his past 18 rounds dating to his tie for 10th in the Open Championship at St. Andrews. Koepka ranks 12th in the FedEx Cup standings heading into his first run at the playoffs and is in great shape to make it all the way to the Tour Championship.
9. Brandt Snedeker, Unites States — It has been a long climb back after a couple of mediocre seasons caused at least in part by injuries, but Snedeker is up 30 spots to No. 28 in the World Golf Rankings this year. He captured the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in February, finished eighth in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay and tied for 12th in the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits, helping him enter the playoffs at No. 12 in the FedEx Cup rankings. Snedeker kick-started his run to the 2012 FedEx Cup title by finishing second in the Barclays, three strokes behind Nick Watney at Bethpage Black. He tied for third a year earlier at Plainfield, this year’s venue, closing with a 61.
10. Adam Scott, Australia — If Scott is going to salvage anything from a largely lost season, the time to start is this week in the Barclays at the beginning of the FedEx Cup playoffs. He won the tournament two years ago at Liberty National, closing with a 66 to beat Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Graham DeLaet and Gary Woodland by a stroke. Two years earlier, when the tournament was shortened to 54 holes at Plainfield, he was in the hunt with scores of 66-67 before closing with a 76 to wind up in a tie for 67th. Scott seemed to be turning this season around when he tied for fourth in the U.S. Open and tied for 10th in the Open Championship, but he hasn’t been in the top 40 in his past three events.
Game of the Day: Alouettes at Tiger-Cats
♠ Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-9.5, 53)
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to earn their CFL-leading seventh victory when they host the Montreal Alouettes on Thursday. The Tiger-Cats have won five straight games following a comprehensive 49-20 victory over the Edmonton Eskimos, and return home to Tim Hortons Field where they are a formidable 9-0 during the regular season.
Hamilton’s offense continues to put up points at a remarkable rate scoring at least 49 in back-to-back games while its defense recorded its eighth defensive touchdown, which is three off the single-season record set by the BC Lions in 1987. The Alouettes snapped a three-game losing streak with a 23-13 road victory over the Lions but it wasn’t enough to save Tom Higgins’ job as the second-year coach was unceremoniously relieved of his duties a day after the victory. “We have made this change as we believe it is in the best interest of our team,” Montreal owner Bob Wetenhall told reporters. “We all wish to express to Tom our affection and respect, as well as our appreciation for the contributions he has made to the franchise.” General manager Jim Popp will assume the coaching duties as he looks to lead the Alouettes to their second win over Hamilton this year after a 17-13 victory in Week 4.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS, ESPN2
LINE HISTORY: The Ti-Cats opened as 9.5-point home favorites and the total opened at 53.
INJURY REPORT: Tiger-Cats – WR Andy Fantuz (Six-Game IR, elbow)
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Despite beating the B.C. Lions in Vancouver last week, they fired head Coach Tom Higgins, who will be replaced by GM Jim Popp. The Als will be double-digit dogs on the road in Hamilton Thursday, where the Ti-Cats are still undefeated. Montreal held Hamilton to a season low 13 points in Week 4, picking off Zach Collaros three times. Montreal leads the CFL in scoring defense, but Hamilton owns the league’s top air attack, averaging over 300 passing yards per game.” Will Rogers.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS, 1-7 O/U): Rakeem Cato had one of his most accurate performances of the year as he completed 16-of-19 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown against BC. Tyrell Sutton ran for a game-high 111 yards and added another 43 receiving while Nik Lewis had four receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. Anthony Calvillo, who is the CFL’s all-time passing leader, was named Montreal’s new quarterbacks coach as part of the staff shakeup after spending the first seven games working with the wide receivers.
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Zach Collaros continued his recent tear as he threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns to go along with a rushing score against the Eskimos, and leads the CFL with 2,314 passing yards. Defensive end Eric Norwood has scored a defensive touchdown in each of his last two games, including a team-record 106-yard fumble return TD, which was the third longest in CFL history. Hamilton is set to retire the number of legendary offensive lineman Angelo Mosca, who played 158 games for the team, in a halftime ceremony Thursday.
TRENDS:
* Under is 19-7 in Tiger-Cats last 26 home games.
* Alouettes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Tiger-Cats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Alouettes last seven games in August.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent are backing the Tiger-Cats.
See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
Lookahead spot
When you’re a member of the SEC, the first thing you do when the schedule is released is find out if and when you play Alabama. Well, unless, of course, you are the Crimson Tide, then you can’t care less about who’s lining up across from you – you’re just going to beat their ass. But for the rest of the Southeastern Conference, a game against Alabama is circled on the calendar months in advance, which means Arkansas is ripe for a possible letdown spot in Week 5 of the upcoming college football season.
The Razorbacks are in Knoxville that weekend for a showdown with the Volunteers, who enter that game fueled by an embarrassing 49-7 smashing at the hands of the Hogs back in 2011. Sure, the Vols players don’t recall that thumping but the Big Orange faithful do. And with Arkansas looking past Tennessee and to Week 6’s trip to Tuscaloosa, this game could move off its current stand of pick’em before kickoff on October 3.
Letdown spot
The Green Bay Packers are currently battling a letdown of different proportions following a season-ending knee injury to star WR Jordy Nelson during preseason action last week, but could be ripe for our select version of the letdown spot in Week 4 of the NFL season. The Cheeseheads have an interesting home stand against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 3, set as 6.5-point favorites at Lambeau Field, then face a tough hike to the West Coast on short rest the following week.
Green Bay travels to San Francisco for a game against the 49ers on October 4, with books dealing the Packers as early 6-point road chalk. San Francisco will be eager for a strong showing with this game being the lone stop at Levi’s Stadium between Weeks 2 and 5. The Niners may have been the punchline of the NFL offseason but six points is a lot to give a home team facing an opponent traveling a long distance on short rest. And we have no clue if the Packers will have figured out how to play without Nelson by then.
Schedule spot
The WNBA season is a mix of extended hiatuses from the hardwood and frantic travel schedules, like the one the Phoenix Mercury face this week. The Mercury, currently second in the Western Conference, open play in Connecticut Thursday night taking on the Sun. From there, Phoenix hikes to the nation’s capital for a matchup with the Mystics Friday.
The Mercury get a day off Saturday to travel west to Minnesota for a huge showdown between the top two teams in the conference Sunday, forcing Phoenix to play three games in four days with the most important – and arguably toughest – coming at the end. The Mercury have won three of their four meetings with the Lynx this season, most recently a 79-67 victory at home as 1-point underdogs last Sunday. Not only is the schedule working against them but Minny willl be out for revenge this weekend.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Vernon Croy
Take Kansas City over Baltimore (2 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 27)
Play the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline as your MLB Pick for Thursday afternoon. This pick falls into one of my MLB systems, and Ventura has pitched solid over his last 3 starts, allowing just 3 earned runs over 19 innings. The O’s send Tillman to the mound, and he has given up 4 homeruns over his last 3 starts. Tillman has struggled in day games this season with opponents hitting .358 against him over 7 starts, leaving him with an ERA of 7.31. I look for the Royals to get on Tillman early in this game. Play the Kansas City Royals with confidence Thursday afternoon.