by WINNERS_ONLY
NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, April 23 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
The three series that resume action in the underdog’s city for Game 3 haven’t been all that dramatic yet as the home team never was much in doubt of losing either of the first two games. I think it’s fair to say that if the home dogs don’t win Game 3 on Thursday night then we probably are looking sweeps — especially the Celtics and Pelicans need to win Game 3 against the two best teams in the NBA. I do think the Bucks will get one game from Chicago, which just can’t seem to keep everyone healthy and is dealing with yet another injury.
♦Game 3: Cavaliers at Celtics (+4, 204)
Boston has played a bit better than I expected in the first two games. Normally if you hold the prolific Cavs under 100 as the C’s did on Tuesday then you have a good chance of winning because Cleveland isn’t great on defense. However, the Cavs won 99-91. Boston just doesn’t have anyone to deal with LeBron James (30 points) or Kyrie Irving (26). James passed Jerry West as the seventh-leading scorer in NBA playoff history. LeBron has a ways to go to catch No. 1 Michael Jordan, but it seems like he will eventually. James and Irving combined for Cleveland’s final 28 points.
The Celtics starters combined for just 40 points, with Tyler Zeller leading the way with 11. That’s obviously not going to cut it. Boston shot only 38.8 percent and was outrebounded by eight. Thanks to Isaiah Thomas’ 22 points, the Boston bench outscored Cleveland’s 51-7. But if your starters are getting demolished, that’s little consolation. Boston has been dominated in the third quarter of both games; on Tuesday it was a 17-4 run that put the C’s into a 14-point hole. Maybe the Celtics should just keep Kelly Olynyk on the floor. They outscored Cleveland by 13 points during his 21 minutes in Game 2.
Updated series line: Cavaliers -25000, Celtics +5000.
Key trends: The Cavs are 0-6 against the spread in their past six playing on one day of rest. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their past six at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The “over/under” has gone over in 10 of Cleveland’s past 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record.
Early lean: Cavaliers and over.
♦Game 3: Bulls at Bucks (+3, 186.5)
Chicago improved to 5-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 91-82 win on Monday that was a bit tougher than the 103-91 Game 1 win. The Bulls had just 11 points after one quarter Monday and were only up three entering the fourth. Jimmy Butler followed his career playoff high of 25 points in Game 1 with 31 points (14 in the fourth quarter) in 46 minutes in Game 2. Coach Tom Thibodeau just never learns — he keeps riding his guys so many minutes. Butler also had nine rebounds and nary a turnover. Derrick Rose was very quiet in the first half (0-for-7 from field) but finished with 15 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in 38 minutes, his most played by far since returning from his knee surgery. The news wasn’t all good as rookie sensation Nikola Mirotic suffered a strained left quad and bruised knee and probably won’t play in Game 3 or maybe not Game 4, either. He was injured during a skirmish with Milwaukee’s Zaza Pachulia. There were a few scrums in the game. Mirotic has been pretty quiet in this series with just 13 combined points. Taj Gibson should see more minutes, but he’s battling a shoulder problem. The Bulls might get back backup guard Kirk Hinrich here. He hasn’t played yet in this series due to a knee problem.
The Bucks give the Bulls problems defensively but they just have no major offensive threats to scare anyone. Milwaukee shot only 35.6 percent overall and 4-for-17 from long range in Game 2. Khris Middleton led the team with 22 points, and only one other player had double digits: Michael Carter-Williams with 12. Giannis Antetokounmpo was just 2-for-11 from the field and Ersan Ilyasova 3-for-10. The Bucks scored 103 points per 100 possessions during the regular season but in these two playoff games have scored just 91 points per 100 possessions. They had a scant 13 assists in Game 2, two fewer than any regular-season game.
Updated series line: Bulls -7000, Bucks +2000.
Key trends: The Bucks are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 Thursday games. The over is 8-3 in the Bulls’ past 11 road games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 5-1 in the past six.
Early lean: Bucks and under.
♦Game 3: Warriors at Pelicans (+5, 203)
Golden State took Game 2 on Monday 97-87, rallying from 13 points down in the first quarter. Klay Thompson had 26 points and Steph Curry 22. Thompson broke a 71-71 tie on the Warriors’ first possession of the fourth quarter, grabbing an offensive rebound before throwing down a one-handed dunk. The Warriors never trailed again. Draymond Green showed why he’s a top candidate for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. The Warriors led 88-84 when Green re-entered the game with 5:17 left in the fourth quarter, and the Pelicans scored only three points the rest of the way. The Warriors didn’t play great, shooting just 9-for-30 from long range and 44.2 percent overall. Still, it was the team’s 20th straight home win, and the Warriors are 42-0 this season when holding teams under 100 points.
Pelicans star Anthony Davis had 26 points and 10 rebounds, but he was 9-for-21 from the floor and clearly was fatigued in the fourth quarter as he played 45 minutes. The Warriors keep throwing Green and Andrew Bogut at him. The Pelicans shot only 37.8 percent. Guard Tyreke Evans was questionable for the game but did play and had 16 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Point guard Jrue Holiday also was questionable for Game 2, and he didn’t play. I believe he will in Game 3, but he can’t go more than 20 minutes or so. New Orleans was 28-13 at home this season and beat every other Western Conference playoff team in the Smoothie King Center except Portland, which only visited once.
Updated series line: Warriors -16500, Pelicans +4000.
Key trends: The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their past five games. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its past five at home. The under is 4-1 in the past five in New Orleans.
Early lean: Warriors and over.
Game of the Day: Thursday’s NBA playoff action
♦Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+4, 203.5)
Cavaliers lead the series 2-0
The Cleveland Cavaliers are two wins away from a trip to the Eastern Conference semifinals and appear to have the Boston Celtics on the ropes. The Celtics will try to steal a game in the best-of-seven series when they host the Cavaliers in Game 3 on Thursday.
Boston showed flashes of being able to keep up with No. 2 seed Cleveland in the first two games but has had no answer for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving down the stretch. “I’ve been in this moment before and a lot of our guys haven’t, so I felt like it was important for me to just try to put a staple on the game the best way I know how and that’s by being aggressive,” James told reporters. “I was able to make a few plays to help our team get the win and that’s what’s very important for me – just to be there for my team when they need it.” James and Irving combined to score all of the Cavaliers’ 24 fourth-quarter points in Game 2. The Celtics were 21-20 at home during the regular season, including a 117-78 win over Cleveland on Apr. 12 in which the Cavaliers rested their starters.
TRENDS:
*Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
*Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.
*Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
*Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
♦Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (+2.5, 187)
Bulls lead series 2-0
Jimmy Butler is terrorizing Milwaukee and looks for a third consecutive strong game when the Chicago Bulls visit the Bucks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first-round series on Thursday. Butler is averaging 28 points while lifting Chicago to a 2-0 lead and he set a personal playoff high with 31 points in Monday’s 91-82 win.
Butler was at his best in the fourth quarter of Monday’s game as he scored 14 points in the final stanza. Milwaukee knows it faces a near must-win situation but remains confident it can get back into the series. “We lose these two but we are going to fight to get his series back,” shooting guard Khris Middleton told reporters. “We are going to defend our home court Thursday.” Middleton averaged 20 points in the first two games but the Bucks averaged just 86.5 as a team.
TRENDS:
*Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
*Under is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 vs. NBA Central
*Under is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record
♦Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans (+5, 203)
Warriors lead series 2-0
The Golden State Warriors put up the best road record in the NBA this season at 28-13, but the most recent of those 13 setbacks came at New Orleans on Apr. 7. The Pelicans will try to turn that trick again and climb back in the series when they host the top-seeded Warriors in Game 3 of their first-round Western Conference series on Thursday.
New Orleans was surprisingly pesky in the first two games of the series but did not have quite enough to get over the hump in the fourth quarter of either contest and heads home in an 0-2 hole. “Hopefully for the fans watching (Game 2), our crowd can be like (the boisterous Warriors home crowd),” Pelicans guard Tyreke Evans told reporters. “When we’ve got our crowd behind us, we’re going to perform, play hard and do a good job.” New Orleans went 28-13 in its own arena during the regular season but Golden State won’t be intimidated. Warriors star Stephen Curry poured in 56 points in the first two games and averaged 25.5 points on the road in the regular season.
TRENDS:
*Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
*Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games.
*Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, April 23, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
I’m not ready to say the young Chicago Cubs can win the NL Central this season as I’d still give the edge to St. Louis. However, these Cubs won’t quit. They won a wild game on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh with a ninth-inning rally to improve to 2-5 this season when trailing entering the ninth. That might not sound like much, but last year the Cubs were 0-79 in that scenario. A lot of matinee getaway games on Thursday afternoon, so keep in mind that some key players could get the day off or only be used as a pinch-hitter.
♦♦Yankees at Tigers (-121, 8)
It’s a 1:08 start on the MLB network for this series finale, and it should be a nice pitching duel. The Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka looked a bit off in his first two starts of the season, both coming at Yankee Stadium. However, in his first road start Saturday at Tampa Bay, he looked back to his pre-injury rookie form by holding the Rays to no runs and two hits over seven innings, striking out eight and walking no one. This is the first time Tanaka has faced the Tigers, so I’m fascinated to see him go against Miguel Cabrera. Detroit’s Yoenis Cespedes faced Tanaka last season and was 3-for-5 with two RBIs. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez. He has been bombed in his last two starts after a great first one. Sanchez has allowed five combined homers in those past two and only four dingers all of last year. So maybe this won’t be a pitching duel. Brian McCann has nine hits career off Sanchez in 32 at-bats with two doubles, a homer and eight RBIs.
Key trends: New York is 8-3 in Tanaka’s past 11 on the road. The “over/under” has gone over in his past four away starts. The over has hit in five of Sanchez’s past seven at home.
Early lean: Yankees and under.
♦♦Braves at Mets (-134, 7)
If New York wins Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta, and judging by the pitching matchup that’s likely, then the Mets will be going for their 11th straight victory here. That’s the team record, set in 1990. It will be tough Thursday as it’s Braves ace Julio Teheran (2-0, 3.71). He beat the Mets on April 11 at Turner Field, allowing one earned run and two hits over six innings. He wasn’t sharp last time out, allowing five runs and a career-high four homers in five innings of a no-decision in Toronto. Lucas Duda hits him well, going 7-for-20 with two doubles, two homers and three RBIs. Daniel Murphy is 5-for-15 with two doubles and two RBIs off him. Bartolo Colon (3-0, 2.25) starts for New York. He won in Atlanta on April 12, allowing three runs and six hits in seven innings in his worst start of the year thus far. Freddie Freeman is a career .462 hitter off him in 13 at-bats. Jonny Gomes is 8-for-21 with three solo homers off him.
Key trends: The Braves are 1-4 in Teheran’s past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 6-1 in Colon’s past seven in Game 3 of a series. The under is 6-2 in Teheran’s past six vs. the Mets.
Early lean: Teheran ends the streak if it’s still going. Also lean under.
♦♦Cardinals at Nationals (-151, 6.5)
Washington’s lineup is nearly complete as Denard Span returned on Sunday from the DL and third baseman Anthony Rendon will begin a minor-league rehab assignment on Friday and could be back early next week. Max Scherzer (1-1, 0.83) has been all the Nats could have asked for thus far. He has yet to allow more than one earned run in his three starts, with his only loss coming when he gave up three unearned. Batters are hitting only .171 off him. He’s from St. Louis, so this might have extra meaning. Very few Cards have faced him. Matt Holliday is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.35) has been about as good as Scherzer. The two total runs he has allowed thus far have come on solo homers, both against the Reds. Washington’s Ian Desmond is 1-for-6 with three strikeouts against Wacha. Span is 0-for-4.
Key trends: The Cards are 5-1 in Wacha’s past six pitching on five days of rest. The Nats are 6-2 in their past eight Game 3s. The over is 6-2 in Wacha’s past eight on five days of rest.
Early lean: Nats and under.
♦♦Red Sox at Rays (+107, 7.5)
Tampa Bay took a four-game losing streak into Wednesday and is in the basement of the AL East, but the good news is that lefty pitcher Drew Smyly looks likely to get his first start of the season on Friday off the DL. For this series finale it’s Jake Odorizzi (2-1, 1.74). All three of his starts have been quality and all three have come against AL East clubs. He has yet to allow a home run in 20.2 innings, and his 0.68 WHIP is second in the AL. Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in five career starts against Boston. David Ortiz, who is appealing his one-game suspension, is 1-for-10 career off him. Clay Buchholz (1-2, 6.06) has sandwiched two quality starts around one horrible one. He was 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts last year vs. the Rays. Evan Longoria is a career .200 hitter off him in 40 at-bats with 14 strikeouts. Asdrubal Cabrera is 4-for-9 with two solo homers.
Key trends: The Sox are 3-9 in Buchholz’s past 12 vs. teams with a losing record. The Rays are 1-6 in Odorizzi’s past seven following a quality start in his last appearance. The Sox are 3-7 in Buchholz’s past 10 against Tampa Bay.
Early lean: Rays and over.
♦♦Royals at White Sox (-147, 7)
This is a series opener as the White Sox look for payback after getting swept three games to open the season in Kansas City, and the Pale Hose haven’t sniffed .500 since. Should be an excellent pitching matchup here. It’s Yordano Ventura (2-1, 4.80) for Kansas City. He pitched opening day and beat the Sox by holding them to a run and four hits over six innings. Ventura was part of all the fun against Oakland last weekend as he plunked Brett Lowrie on Saturday after a Josh Reddick homer, and Ventura was ejected. Adam Eaton, who is struggling at the plate this season, is 4-for-12 with two doubles off Ventura. Jose Abreu has a solo homer in five at-bats. Chris Sale (2-0, 2.25) missed that first series with the Royals but has been typically great in his first two starts. Lorenzo Cain hits him, going 13-for-37 with three doubles, two homers and six RBIs. Alcides Escobar hits .400 off Sale.
Key trends: The Royals are 7-0 in Ventura’s past seven on the road. The Sox are 7-3 in Sale’s past 10 series openers. The over is 5-0 in Ventura’s past five against Chicago. The under is 5-2 in Sale’s past seven at home in this series.
Early lean: Sox at +160 on the runline and under.
Zurich Classic begins in Louisiana Thursday
By Freddy Wander
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Tees Off: Thursday, April 23rd
TPC Louisiana – Avondale, LA
The Zurich Classic kicks off this week as the PGA members head to the Gulf Coast for a tourney which has been held since 1938. There is typically a lot of scoring at this event, with the victors carding at least a score of 15-under-par since 2010. They will be hitting this par-72, 7,425-yard course with just five of the top-25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings joining the field. One of them is Billy Horschel, who won here back in 2013 with a score of 20-under-par; marking his first career victory. Last year, it was Noh Seung-yul who also earned his first career win here when he shot two rounds of 65 and defeated his closest competitors, Andrew Svoboda and Robert Streb, by two strokes. It is not uncommon for players to get their first win in Louisiana as seven of the last 10 victors at New Orleans were first-time winners and there has not been a multiple time winner here since Carlos Franco took home the trophy in both 1999 and 2000. With such a weak field, there will be plenty of chances for some new names to breakthrough while players in the top-20 could dominate, so let’s take a look at a few of these golfers who could perform well this week.
Justin Rose: Rose has been moving back up the ranks and really jumped back into the scene with his runner-up performance at the Masters. He did have a rough start to the year with three missed cuts in his first five events, but still has managed to rank in the top-50 in driving distance (296.1 yards per, 36th on tour), greens in regulation (68.9%, 38th on tour) and sand save percentage (63.6%, 13th on tour). He has also done a great job when teeing it up in New Orleans with a top-15 finish in each of the past three years; including his best showing last year when he hit 70.8% of GIR and finished in a tie for eighth. Look for Rose to be in the hunt for his seventh career PGA victory when all is said-and-done this week.
Rickie Fowler: Fowler has only one victory to his name, but he still ranks 13th in the OWGR due to his ability to stay near the top of the leaderboard each week. He has made each of his eight cuts so far on the year and has been turning it on lately with a 12th-place finish at both the WGC-Cadillac Championship and the Masters. He did miss the cut here last year, but has shown promise in the past with a 10th back in 2012 where he was able to have a Friday round of 65 and hit 76.4% of GIR with 67.9% of GIR nailed. Fowler is just itching to reach the next level of his game and it would be no surprise to see it happen at TPC Louisiana.
Morgan Hoffman: Hoffman is coming off his first career visit to Augusta where he put up a strong 28th-place performance and followed that up with a ninth at the RBC Heritage. That was his second top-10 of the season and fourth top-25 showing as he looks to become the eighth player in the past 11 installments of this event to earn his first career victory on these fairways. He’s been solid here in the past with a 34th last year and a 21st in 2013 as he comes into this week ranked 31st in driving distance (296.5 yards per) and 32nd in strokes gained putting (0.449). His all-around game should put him in line to win his first PGA event and start making more of a name for himself.
John Peterson: While Peterson’s best finish this year is 11th, he has been able to get consistent results with 13-of-14 cuts made and five top-25s. He has done so with an accurate drive (68.1%, 25th on tour) and great scrambling skills (63.8%, 28th on tour) and is on the cusp of a first PGA win. He has made the cut just once in the past three visits to New Orleans, but the one made cut was impressive as he shot 13-under-par with two 67s on the card in 2013 and finished eighth. Peterson has been playing some solid golf and that should start paying off more as he continues to make it to the weekend.
K.J. Choi: Choi is a former winner here when he shot 17-under in 2002 and defeated his closest competitor by four strokes. He is certainly not the player that he once was, but has shown flashes of his old self this year with two top-25s and 7-of-10 cuts made. He is one of the best golfers from 50-125 yards with an average distance of 15’7” (7th on tour) which should play very well on the rather short course this week. Choi may have a great chance to surprise this week as he hits a course where he has had some past success and is playing amongst plenty of less experienced golfers.
ANTHONY MICHAEL (NBA PLAYOFF ACTION)
#736 Milwaukee Bucks +3 (8:05 edt)
This is a must win game for Milwaukee here as they know the cannot go down 3-0 and expect to win this series. The home crowd will be in full throat trying to help them over the hump here as well. Chicago will not find the going quite as easy on the road than at home as well. Look for the Bucks to at least get this cover if not the outright win.