By WINNERS_ONLY
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: West region Day 1
(15) American Eagles vs. (2) Wisconsin Badgers (-13.5, 121.5)
American center Tony Wroblicky (12.2 points, 7.3 rebounds) was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year and had 61 blocked shots and the supporting cast includes guards Jesse Reed (13.9), Darius Gardner (11.5 points, 4.2 assists) and John Schoof (11.4 points, team-best 68 3-pointers). American finished strong with five victories in its last six games.
The Badgers have a battled-tested starting five and the attack was bolstered by the emergence of freshman forward Nigel Hayes (eight points per game) as the Big Ten’s Sixth Man of the Year. Wisconsin can shoot from outside (7.8 3-pointers per game) and six players have more than 20 steals on the defensive end.
TRENDS:
* American is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Wisconsin’s last four games overall.
(10) Brigham Young Cougars vs. (7) Oregon Ducks (-5.5, 158)
The Cougars, who are third in the country in scoring (84.2), will be without sophomore point guard Kyle Collinsworth, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee against Gonzaga. Brigham Young likely will rely more on junior guard Tyler Haws, who averages a team-high 23.4 points and scored a game-high 32 against Oregon.
The Ducks rank 11th in the country in scoring (81.8 points per game). Three players are averaging double figures in scoring – redshirt junior guard Joseph Young (18.6), redshirt senior forward Mike Moser (13.5) and redshirt senior guard Jason Calliste (12.4), who has started only one game but played in all 32 this season. The 6-foot-8, 211-pound Moser leads Oregon in rebounding (eight per game).
TRENDS:
* BYU is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
* Oregon is 5-1-1 AS in its last seven games overall.
* Over is 11-1 in Oregon’s last 12 non-conference games.
(12) North Dakota State Bison vs. (5) Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 150.5)
The Bison were the top seed in the Summit League tournament but barely squeaked past Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne 60-57 in the title game on Taylor Braun’s three-point play with 12 seconds left. Braun, a senior guard, is the team’s leading scorer at 18.2 points and is shooting 13-of-21 from 3-point range over his last six games.
The Sooners are talented and balanced, with four players averaging double figures – all of whom shoot at least 75 percent from the foul line and 35 percent from 3-point range. Sophomore guard Buddy Hield leads the way at 16.8 points, including a team-high 89 3-pointers. The X-factor for Oklahoma could be sophomore forward Ryan Spangler, who averages 9.8 points and 9.4 boards but has gone six straight games without a double-double.
TRENDS:
* North Dakota State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games.
* Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in North Dakota State’s last 10 games overall.
(13) New Mexico State Aggies vs. (4) San Diego State Aztecs (-6.5, 128)
The Aggies have been bounced in the first round of the tournament in each of the last two seasons and managed only 44 points in a loss to Saint Louis in 2013. New Mexico State has not scored fewer than 61 points in any of its last 23 games and was only once held under 60 this season – a 74-48 setback at No. 1 seed Arizona on Dec. 11.
The Aztecs have enjoyed plenty of regular-season success under Fisher but only once advanced out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, suffering a Sweet Sixteen loss to Connecticut in 2011. San Diego State has not allowed an opponent to reach 70 points since Jan. 12 but did not have quite enough offensively to sneak past New Mexico in a 64-58 loss in the Mountain West championship game.
TRENDS:
* New Mexico State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. the Mountain West Conference.
* San Diego State 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s last five non-conference games.
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: Midwest Region Day 1
(12) North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. (5) Saint Louis Billikens (-3, 131.5)
T.J. Warren, the ACC Player of the Year, posted his 18th consecutive 20-point game (and school-record 30th overall) to increase his season total to 843, surpassing the previous single-season school-record mark held by David Thompson (838). The Wolfpack have never faced the Billikens, but enter Thursday’s contest with wins in five of their last six contests.
Following early-season losses to Wisconsin and Wichita State, Saint Louis ripped off a school-record 19-game winning streak. The Billikens started to spring leaks thereafter, most notably on defense, as they wrapped up the season losing four of five. Four of the nine times Saint Louis surrendered at least 67 points came over the final five contests, all of which resulted in losses.
TRENDS:
* Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Billikens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Over is 8-2 in Wolfpack last 10 overall.
(13) Manhattan Jaspers vs. (4) Louisville Cardinals (-16, 142.5)
The Jaspers punched their ticket to the dance by upsetting top-seeded Iona 71-68 in the MAAC final March 10 to earn its first NCAA berth since 2004. Manhattan, a No. 13 seed, ranks second in the nation in wins on the road or neutral courts with 16.
The Cardinals dominated the American Athletic Conference tournament winning the three games by a combined 110 points. They shook off a bit of turmoil during the season with the dismissal of forward Chane Behanan but they are rolling now and got a career-high 42 points from standout guard Russ Smith in its 94-65 AAC semifinal win over Houston. Louisville trailed in the tournament for less than a minute and defeated Connecticut 71-61 to win the inaugural conference title.
TRENDS:
* Jaspers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last six NCAA Tournament games.
(10) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. (7) Texas Longhorns (-1.5, 142)
Arizona State secured a berth to its first NCAA tournament since 2009 despite losing three games in a row. The 10th-seeded Sun Devils finished 10-8 in the Pac 12, but dropped four of their last six regular season games before being ousted in the semifinals of the conference tournament by Stanford. It’s not all doom and gloom for Arizona State, which is one of only four teams to beat Arizona this season after a 69-66 double-overtime win over its fierce rival Feb. 14 that helped strengthen its claim to be included in the field of 68.
Jonathan Holmes tops the Longhorns in scoring at 13 points per game but was held to just six points on 3-of-12 shooting in the loss to Baylor. Isaiah Taylor leads the Longhorns in assists (3.9) and has dished out five or more in seven of his last 10 outings and has finished in double figures in scoring on 24 occasions this season. Texas is ranked fourth nationally in rebounding and is led by Cameron Ridley (8.1), who has notched nine double-doubles, including three in his last six games.
TRENDS:
* Sun Devils are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Longhorns are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 9-2 in Longhorns last 11 neutral site games.
(15) Wofford Terriers vs. (2) Michigan Wolverines (-16, 127.5)
The Terriers rely on strong defense, allowing a Southern Conference best 62.4 points per game just one year after posting the second-best defensive scoring mark (59.1) in conference history. Junior guard Karl Cochran leads the team in scoring (15.7) and assists (three), and ranked second in the Southern Conference in steals (1.7) while earning first team all-Southern Conference honors.
The Wolverines are making their fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance and fifth under coach John Beilein. The No. 2 seed is the highest for Michigan since the Fab Five-led Wolverines received a No. 1 seed in 1993 and eventually lost to North Carolina in the national title game in New Orleans. Nik Stauskas has led Michigan in scoring 20 times this season and scored in double-figures in 11 consecutive games.
TRENDS:
* Terriers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Wolverines last 26 neutral site games.
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: East Region Day 1
(12) Harvard Crimson vs. (5) Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5, 121.5)
Following last year’s upset of New Mexico in the first round, the Crimson are considered veteran Cinderellas of the tournament. Harvard isn’t a high-percentage shooting team, but it hits the offensive glass (10.6 per game) and works as a team to get good shots.
The Bearcats love to win, and to do more of that they’re going to need to bring their defensive intensity. Cincinnati has been good this season when it feeds off its defense, so coach Mick Cronin needs to get his team to ratchet it up on that end of the floor for the next couple weeks.
TRENDS:
* Crimson are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Under is 8-1 in Bearcats last nine neutral site games.
(4) Michigan State Spartans vs. (13) Delaware Blue Hens (-14, 150.5)
The Spartans rolled to the Big Ten tournament title and are in a groove with the return of three starters – Adreian Payne, Keith Appling and Branden Dawson – from injury. The Spartans recovered from a late-season defensive slump and is holding opponents to 40 percent shooting and 65.3 points, allowing just 60.3 points in three games at the Big Ten tournament.
The Blue Hens won the Colonial regular-season and tournament titles for the first time and are in the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years. Devon Saddler (19.7 points) ranks third on the Division I active career scoring list (2,201 points) while Davon Usher and Jarvis Threatt add 19.4 and 18.1 points, respectively.
TRENDS:
* Blue Hens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 12-3 in Blue Hens last 15 non-conference games.
(10) St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. (7) UConn Huskies (-4.5, 131.5)
The Hawks upset Virginia Commonwealth in the conference title game 65-61, and have won nine of their past 11 contests entering their first NCAA tournament since 2008. They are the top-shooting team in the Atlantic 10, hitting 46.8 percent from the field.
The Huskies are 9-3 in their past 12 games and own several signature victories, including beating No. 1 overall seed Florida in December and defeating Memphis and Cincinnati on consecutive days in the conference tournament. Connecticut, which lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament, in 2012, won the 2011 national title and reached the Final Four in 2009.
TRENDS:
* Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-1 in Huskies last nine non-conference games.
(15) Wis.-Milwaukee Panthers vs. (2) Villanova Wildcats (-16.5, 140)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee isn’t considered a great team by many, but the Panthers boast an impressive resume after winning five straight, including four games in eight days at the Horizon League tournament. The Panthers were just 7-9 in league play during the regular season, but they peaked at the right time and won the conference tournament as the fifth seed.
The Wildcats won the Big East regular-season title and set a school record with 28 regular-season victories, and they had the league’s second-most efficient defense while allowing an average of 66.6 points. Senior guard James Bell received All-Big East first-team honors after averaging a team-high 14.5 points along with 6.1 rebounds for the Wildcats, who attempted 44.6 percent of their field goals from 3-point range.
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last five NCAA Tournament games.
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: South Region Day 1
(11) Dayton Flyers vs. (6) Ohio State Buckeyes (-6, 131.5)
The Flyers boast a deep and balanced scoring attack led by junior guard Jordan Sibert, (12.5 points) who is averaging 14.6 points over his last five games while shooting 59 percent from the floor. Devin Oliver (12.1) and Dyshawn Pierre (11.1) are the other double-digit scorers while Vee Sanford – who had 23 points on a remarkable 9-of-9 shooting effort in a win over Fordham in the first round of the A-10 tourney – comes in at 9.9.
This marks the last tournament run for Buckeyes seniors Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr., two players who are no strangers to March pressure. Craft averaged 10.4 points, 5.2 assists and 3.2 steals as a sophomore in Ohio State’s 2012 Final Four run while Smith clocked in with three double-digit scoring efforts, and both were factors en route to the Elite Eight in 2013.
TRENDS:
* Dayton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.
* Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Dayton’s last five games overall
(9) Pittsburgh Panthers vs. (8) Colorado Buffaloes (+5.5, 128.5)
Pittsburgh, in its first season in the ACC after spending 31 years in the Big East, stumbled down the stretch with six losses in its last 10 regular-season games, but regrouped to win two games in the conference tournament before falling to eventual champion Virginia in the semifinals. Senior forwrd Talib Zanna has been a wrecking ball on the backboards down the stretch, collecting at least 14 rebounds in four of the last 10 games and putting up a monster 19-point, 21-rebound effort in the ACC quarterfinals.
It’s no surprise that offense has been the biggest issue for the Buffaloes since a knee injury KO’d leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie and his 14.7-point per game. Colorado failed to surpass 65 points in its last eight games and was limited to an average of 53.7 points in its three Pac-12 tourney games, including 43 against Arizona.
TRENDS:
* Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Colorado’s last six games overall.
(14) Western Michigan Broncos vs. (3) Syracuse Orange (-13, 128)
The Broncos lost five of nine games in December and early January, but are 14-2 since and shot a blistering 67.9 percent from the field in the second half of the MAC title game. Conference player of the year David Brown led the MAC in scoring at 19.4 and won tournament MVP honors after scoring 48 points in the Broncos’ two victories.
Syracuse brings the ninth-stingiest scoring defense (59.5 points per game) into the tournament but has struggled on offense down the stretch, shooting 40 percent or lower seven times in its past eight contests. Leading scorer C.J. Fair finished with just nine points in a 66-63 loss to North Carolina State in Friday’s ACC quarterfinals.
TRENDS:
* Western Michigan is are 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
* Syracuse is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Syracuse’s last four games overall.
(16) Albany Great Danes vs. (1) Florida Gators (OFF)
TRENDS:
* Albany is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.
* Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Albany’s last seven non-conference games.
NCAA Midwest Regional betting news and notes: NC State following play-in magic
by Chase Ruttig
The Round of 64 gets underway in the South Regional Thursday. We look at the biggest betting news and notes coming out of that side of the bracket.
No. 15 Wofford Terriers vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-16, 129)
Michigan head coach John Beilein is careful that his Wolverines don’t overlook the Terriers in the Round of 64.
“Now I just speak for me and maybe I’m naïve as heck, but that’s not (my team’s) makeup right now,” Beilein said to Michigan Live. “They understand how good teams are in the country and they’re excited to play in this NCAA tournament.”
No. 12 North Carolina State vs. No. Saint Louis Billikens (-3, 131.5)
North Carolina State pushed its way into the field of 64 thanks to an impressive win over Xavier Tuesday. The Wolfpack have history on their side going against Saint Louis, as VCU (2011), South Florida (2012) and LaSalle (2013) have all won as No. 12 seeds after winning in the First Four.
No. 10 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 7 Texas Longhorns (-2, 142)
The most intriguing battle in the Longhorns-Sun Devils matchup will be between one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and Arizona State center Jordan Bachynski. Texas is third-best rebounding team in the land (42 rebounds per game) while Bachynski is one of the best centers in the Pac-12 with 8.3 boards per night.
No. 14 Manhattan Jaspers vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (-16, 142.5)
Manhattan head coach Steve Masiello has inside information on the defending national champions. Masiello was a former Louisville assistant under Rick Pitino and recruited their leading scorer Russ Smith during his time with the Cardinals.
Which NCAA tournament seed is the best bet?
by Jason Logan
Much is made about the No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup in Round 2 of the NCAA tournament. It seems like every March, at least one No. 12 stuns a No. 5 in one of the opening upsets of March Madness.
Last March, the No. 12 seeds were a bountiful 3-1 SU and ATS against the No. 5 seeds. And, going back to 2007, No. 12 seeds are 12-16 SU but 16-12 ATS versus fifth-seeded opponents.
This year, the No. 12 seeds already in place are Stephen F. Austin (+6.5 vs. VCU), Harvard (+2.5 vs. Cincinnati), and North Dakota State (+4 vs. Oklahoma). The other No. 12-versus-No. 5 matchup will be decided in Round 1, with the winner of the No. 12 play-in game between Xavier and North Carolina State facing No. 5 Saint Louis in Round 2.
The No. 6-No. 11 games are nearly as treacherous for the better seed, with No. 6 teams going 16-12 SU but 13-14-1 ATS. The No. 6 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS in last year’s tournament, with No. 6 UCLA getting beat by 20 points against No. 11 Minnesota. However, the Golden Gophers were 3-point favorites for that Round of 64 contest.
On the other end of the scale, No. 3 seeds are a consistent cover in their opening game versus No. 14 seeds – more so than No.1 and No. 2 teams.
In 2013, No. 3 seeds went 3-1 but just 2-2 ATS, with third-ranked New Mexico losing outright to No. 14 Harvard as a 10.5-point favorite in the Round of 64. But, looking back over the past seven NCAA tournaments, No. 3 seeds are 26-2 SU and 19-9 ATS.
No. 1 seeds are undefeated in the NCAA tournament, holding a perfect 28-0 SU record since 2007. They’ve also been a solid bet to cover the spread, going 17-10-1 ATS in those games. However, last March, the No. 1 seeds finished the Round of 64 just 1-3 ATS with eventual national champion Louisville as the only top team to come through for bettors in the second round.
Virginia faces the biggest spread of this year’s No. 1 seeds (so far), giving 21 points to opening opponent No. 16 Coastal Carolina. No. 1 Arizona is a 19.5-point favorite versus No. 16 Weber State. The other two No. 1 seeds – Florida and Wichita State – will have their Round 2 foes decided in the play-in games.
The No. 4-versus-No. 13 games have produced a similar record as the No. 1-No. 16 contests, going 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS since 2007. Fourth-seeded programs were 3-1 SU and ATS in 2013, with No. 4 Kansas State as the lone blemish. The Wildcats were defeated 63-61 by No. 13 LaSalle as 6-point favorites.
Overall, the higher-seeded team is 164-60 SU and 123-97-4 ATS in Round 2 of the NCAA tournament since 2007 – covering 56 percent of the time in that stretch.
Note: The No. 3 versus No. 14 games have produced a 9-19 Over/Under record in the past seven NCAA tournament games – playing below the total 68 percent of the time.
Right Angle Sports
NCAA Thursday: 731 Wofford/Michigan – Over 127
NCAA Thursday: 735 Mich St/Delaware- Over 150.5
NCAA Friday: 829 Stanford +3.5
NCAA Friday: 831 Eastern Ky/Kansas Over 148.5
Steve’s Golf Picks
Rickie Fowler 50:1
Ian Poulter 80:1
Justin Rose 14.5:1
Keegan Bradley 38:1
Jamie Donaldson 70:1
Martin Laird 120:1
Head to head plays
1 UNIT – RICKIE FOWLER (+105) over Will Mackenzie
2 UNIT – IAN POULTER (-110) over Lee Westwood
Maddux Sports
Ohio state -6
Syracuse -12.5
Connecticut -4.5
Cincinnati -2.5
Friday – VCU -6
Dr Bob
NCAA Tourney Thursday
Pittsburgh
INDIAN COWBOY
6* Louisville -16
GoodFella
Oregon -5.0 (-110) vs 725 Brigham Young
Analysis: “One & Only CBB GOY” (4*) on OREGON DUCKS -5
Note: Just like all of our RARE Game of the Year wagers, we are simply playing this a (4*) size wager, which is “double” what our normal sized “Top Plays” are. Please wager with in your means as this is just one game in the end.
Note: I have Oregon winning this game by 10 points and would play for a (4*) Wager up to -6.
DAVE ESSLER
2* Harvard
2* North Dakota ST
RICH SPORTS
726 Oregon -5 4Units
709 Dayton +3 1st half 3Units
738 Oklahoma – ML -150 3Units
Dr. Bob
***Pittsburgh (-6) over Colorado
10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 719
Neither of these teams was as good in the second half of the season, as Pitt struggled after 6th man Durand Johnson was lost for the season after 16 games and Colorado really fell off after star Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season to injury early in their January 12th game at Washington. The Buffs were 14-2 and deserving of being highly ranked at the time but they’re just 9-9 since with their best win coming against Stanford. Most of Colorado’s wins without Dinwiddie were against teams that failed to make the NCAA Tournament and the Buffs really struggled against superior teams without Dinwiddie – losing by an average of 18 points in 5 games against UCLA and Arizona. Pitt is not quite UCLA and Arizona but the Panthers are better than the rest of the teams in Pac-12 and my ratings favor Pitt by 6.7 points in this game (with a total of 124 ½ points). The line value isn’t that significant but I like the match up of Pitt’s good interior defense against a Colorado team that can’t make outside shots (just 30.8% on 3-pointers as a team without Dinwiddie’s 41%). I also like that Pitt applies to a 63-16 ATS first round situation and the Panthers generally beat the teams that they’re supposed to beat. In fact, the Panthers are just 1-8 against teams that are ranked in my top 40 and 24-1 straight against everyone else. If the win straight up they are likely to cover too and I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
**Florida (-21 ½) over Albany
01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 718
Albany earned the right to get destroyed by Florida with their Tuesday night win over Mount St. Mary’s but the Great Danes will be overwhelmed by Florida’s defense. Albany is a pretty solid defensive team (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are horrible offensively (228th in compensated offensive efficiency) and were relatively worse offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. Albany is simply too careless with the basketball (273rd in offensive turnover percentage) to function against the Gators, who rank 14th in defensive turnovers forced percentage. Albany didn’t face a team nearly as good defensive as Florida but their games against better than average defensive teams Pitt and Vermont, who they faced 3 times, were mostly ugly offensive efforts, as the Danes combined for just 35.2% shooting in those 4 games. Albany managed to stay within 12 points of Pitt because the Panthers had a bad shooting night (1 for 10 from 3-point range and 56% from the free throw line) but my ratings favor Florida by 22 ½ points in this game (with a total of 115 ½ points), even with the slow expected pace factored in, and the Gators apply to a very good 60-18-1 ATS NCAA Tournament situation. Also, #1 seeds coming off a conference tournament win are 16-5 ATS in round 1 when favored by 24 points or less. The fact that the Gators almost blew their lead against Kentucky should give coach Donovan something to motivate his team with and playing in nearby Orlando should ensure that there will be plenty of Gators’ fans spurring their team on (Florida is 6-1 ATS under Donovan when playing an NCAA game in the state of Florida). I also like that Florida has a history of beating the crap out of bad teams in the opening round, as the Gators are 4-0 ATS under Donovan in first round games when favored by more than 12 points, winning those by margins of 30 points, 43 points, 28 points, and 32 points. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and as 3-Star Best Bet at -21 or less. I will also lean Under, as my ratings project only 115 ½ total points.
***Duke (-12 ½) over Mercer
09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 824
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
**Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin
04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 846
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).
Ohio State (-6) vs Dayton
09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 710
This comes down to a battle of Dayton’s efficient offense against Ohio State’s stifling defense, which ranks 4th in the nation in compensated points per possession. Dayton was relatively better against better offensively against better defensive teams and the Buckeyes’ relative strength defensively is 3-point defense while they are good, but not great, defending inside the arc (45.7% allowed on 2-point shots). Dayton doesn’t depend on 3-point shots, as they take a bit less than an average team, so the Flyers should perform relatively better offensively than expected. On the other side of the court Ohio State’s mediocre offense is going up against an equally mediocre defense and I don’t see any advantage to either side. Overall I assign a match up edge of 0.4 points to the Flyers my ratings favor Ohio State by 5.2 points (with a total of 129 ½ points). The line opened at 5 ½ points and has gone up but there isn’t enough value to recommend even a lean on the Flyers and Ohio State was close to qualifying in a pretty good round 1 situation. I’ll pass.
Syracuse (-13) over Western Michigan
11:45 AM Pacific Rotation: 712
Syracuse hasn’t been playing well lately, going just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, while Western Michigan is a pretty confident team after winning 12 of their last 13 games and pulling off two upset wins in the MAC tournament to get here. Western Michigan fits into the just happy to be here mold and the Broncos apply to a negative 2-28-2 ATS subset of a 17-52-2 ATS NCAA Tournament first round letdown situation. Syracuse, meanwhile, is likely to be more focused than normal given their recent struggles and the matchup is favorable given how much trouble the Broncos have had against really good defensive teams this season. Western Michigan has played 6 games against teams that rank in the top-50 in compensated defensive points per possession (Northwestern, Bowling Green, 2 games against Eastern Michigan and 2 games against Northern Illinois). In those 6 games the Broncos’ compensated offensive efficiency was 0.076 points per possession lower, so they were much worse on a relative basis against good defensive teams. Syracuse has a bit of an edge playing in their home state but adding that in with the match up advantage gives me a fair line of 12.3 points (and 124.5 total points). The line opened at 12 ½ and has gone up a bit butI’ll lean with Syracuse minus the points and I’ll lean Under the 128 point total.
Connecticut (-4 ½) vs St. Joseph’s
03:55 PM Pacific Rotation: 714
Connecticut is one of the nation’s best defensive teams (11th in compensated defensive efficiency) but St. Joseph’s has a well-rounded offense and has an advantage of the Huskies’ defense from beyond the arc. Connecticut actually has a bigger advantage over the Hawks defense from 3-point range but the Huskies rank 203rd in the nation in 2-point shooting. This game will come down to which team is knocking down their 3-point shots and my ratings favor U Conn by just 3 points, so the line value favors the Hawks. However, The Huskies apply to a 43-11-1 ATS first round situation. With the line value favoring St. Joe’s and the situation favoring U Conn I am going to pass on this game at this number but I’d lean with Connecticut at -4 points or less. My math only projects 128.1 total points and Connecticut has gone Under the total in 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, so I’ll lean Under 130 points or higher.
Villanova (-16 ½) over Milwaukee
06:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 716
Villanova mostly beat up on lesser teams this season, recording a very good 14-2 ATS record as a favorite of 9 points or more. The only one of those games the Wildcats lost straight up was against Seton Hall in their opening Big East Tournament game and I expect that slap in the face to wake up Nova and have them ready for this first round match up against a very mediocre Milwaukee team. Milwaukee is actually a bit better than their overall rating, as top scorer Jordan Aaron was injured during a late season 5 game stretch, in which he missed 4 games and played hurt in the other. The result was a 1-4 record but the Aaron returned from the final regular season game and played well in 3 subsequent conference tournament victories to get them to this point. Milwaukee beat #1 seeded Green Bay twice but the only really good team that Panthers faced was Wisconsin and the result was a 26 point loss. Milwaukee’s recent good play sets them up in a negative 2-28-2 ATS subset of a 17-52-2 ATS first round letdown situation and Villanova’s loss to Seton Hall should have them focused for this game. Milwaukee actually has a slight matchup advantage because Villanova is ranked in the top 10 in most 3-point shots taken while Milwaukee is much better defending the 3-point arc (49th in the nation) than they are defending inside the arc (232nd in 2-point defense). Milwaukee also takes a lot of 3-point shots and Villanova is 233rd in 3-point defense (35.4% allowed) while being very good against 2-point shots (43.4% allowed, which is 19th in the nation). Villanova’s great 2-point defensive is relatively less valuable against a team that takes a lot of 3-point shots but I’ve included the matchup advantage into my ratings and I still get Nova by 16 points. The situation is certainly favorable and Nova generally beats up on bad teams, so I’ll consider Villanova a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less and I’ll lean slightly with the Under(The total is 140 points and I get 138.5).
St. Louis (-3) over NC State
04:20 PM Pacific Rotation: 721
NC State has been playing well lately and the Wolfpack have the best player on the floor in ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren. The Billikens, meanwhile, have been slumping lately, losing 4 of their last 5 games. But, while being grossly over-seeded St. Louis is still better than NC State if both teams play their normal game. However, this matchup works in NC State’s favor, as the strength of a very good St. Louis defense (8th in the nation in compensated points per possession) is their 3rd ranked 3-point defense (29.1% allowed). That’s not going to bother NC State that much since the Wolfpack don’t take many 3-pointers, as they rank 331st out of 351 teams in percentage of shots taken that are 3-point shots. So, St. Louis’s defense, while still very good, will not be relatively as good against NC State’s offense. My ratings, with the matchup adjustment included, favor St. Louis by 2 points (with a total of 133 ½ points), so there isn’t much value in this game. I’d lean with NC State at +3 ½ or more.
Manhattan (+16 ½) over Louisville
06:50 PM Pacific Rotation: 723
Manhattan doesn’t necessarily match up well with Louisville offensively, as the Jaspers are worse than average when it comes to turning the ball over and the Cardinals thrive on causing miscues (#2 in the nation in defensive turnovers). However, Louisville was relatively worse against better defensive teams and Manhattan ranks 22nd in the nation in compensated points per possession allowed when their top two defensive players (and top two scorers) George Beamon and Michael Alvarado are both playing. Manhattan plays a physical style of defense that leads to a lot of fouls and a lot of free throws taken by their opponents (their opponents attempted more free throws than field goals this season). That’s actually a good thing against a Louisville team that ranks 304th in the nation in free throw shooting at 65.9%. Overall the matchups are about even and my ratings favor Louisville by just 15 points (with a total of 145 points). The line opened at 15 ½ and has gone up and Louisville applies to a negative 26-53-2 ATS first round letdown based on winning their conference tournament. Manhattan won their conference tournament too and both teams enter this tournament after winning and covering all 3 games in their respective conference tournament. That favors Manhattan historically too, as NCAA Tournament dogs of 8 points or more are 12-1 ATS if both teams have covered the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The thing holding me back is Louisville’s 15-7 ATS mark this season as favorite of 12 points or more. I’ll still lean with Manhattan plus the points and I’ll consider the Jaspers a Strong Opinion at +17 or more.
Byu (+5 ½) vs Oregon
12:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 725
BYU and Oregon played earlier this in a 100-96 Ducks’ overtime win in Eugene and this should be another fun game to watch. My ratings only favor Oregon by 3 ½ points and the question is how much is the loss of BYU’s #2 scorer Kyle Collinsworth going to cost them? Collinsworth’s scoring efficiency is actually a negative compared to the rest of the team because of his horrible free throw shooting (57.6%) and he also leads the team in turnovers with 2.6 per game. On the positive side of Collinsworth’s stat line is his 4.6 assists and 1.7 steals per game, which will be tough to replace. Overall I value Collinsworth at 1 point and I favor Oregon by 4 ½ points in this game. As far as the total is concerned the math projects 166 ½ total points and these teams combined for 168 points in regulation in their first meeting despite combining for just 33.3% 3-point shooting. BYU is historically bad as an underdog (just 23-39-2 ATS under coach Dave Rose) and the Cougars are 0-10 straight up against teams seeded #9 or better in NCAA Tournament play. I have no opinion on the side but I’ll lean Over the total, which has gone down to 158 points.
Wisconsin (-13 ½) vs American
09:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 728
American is the best of the 15 seeds in this tournament and they’re a very good shooting team when they are able to get off a shot before turning the ball over. You see, the Eagles rank very highly in field goal percentage at 49.4% but they are 342nd out of 351 Division 1 teams in offensive turnover percentage. Their first round match up with Wisconsin is actually perfect since the Badgers don’t use defensive pressure and rank 322nd in defensive turnover percentage while not being particularly good in field goal defense (43.2% is good but not great). If American doesn’t commit unforced turnovers and they knock down a good percentage of their 3-point shots (they shoot 38.2% from long range and Wisconsin is just average in 3-point defense) then the Eagles could soar to an upset win. However, Wisconsin applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that certainly had me interested in siding with them despite the good match up for American. However, my ratings only favor the Badgers by 12 ½ points (and 123 total points) so the line value also favors the Eagles. While the match up and line value favor American the situation favors Wisconsin, which makes this a good game to pass on unless the line comes down. But, I’ll lean with Wisconsin at -13 ½ or less.
Texas (-2) vs Arizona State
06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
Texas is perhaps the worst shooting team of any at large entry into this tournament, as the Longhorns have made just 43.1% of their shots and only 32.4% from 3-point range this season. Fortunately, the Longhorns rebound 39.4% of their missed shots, which ranks 6th in the nation. Aside from offensive rebounding the Longhorns excel in defending the rim, as they rank 7th in blocked shot percentage and 15th in defending 2-point shots. However, having a great interior defense is relatively less important against a good 3-point shooting team like Arizona State, who knocks down 38.6% from beyond the arc. ASU, however, is not a good rebounding team, so the Longhorns should control the glass and the Sun Devils were relatively worse this season against better teams. That has been taken into account, however, as my tournament ratings, which put more weight on games against better teams and diminish the affect of blowouts against lesser teams, favors Texas by only 1 point (with 144 ½ total points). There are a few conflicting situations that apply to this game that slightly favor the Longhorns so this game is best left alone, although I will lean towards the Over 142 points or less.
Michigan (-16) vs Wofford
04:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 732
The Southern Conference is a horrible, as only regular season champion Davidson ranks in the top half of my Division 1 rankings. Wofford hasn’t beaten a team ranked in the top 200 in the nation and they lost their 5 games to teams ranked in the top 100 by an average of 18.4 points. Wofford is actually a decent defensive team but their compensated offensive efficiency is horrible and they’ll have to make a lot of 3-pointers (they shoot a better than average 35.9% from beyond the arc) to stay close. However, facing another slow tempo team like Michigan will help keep this game close because there will be fewer possessions for the Wolverines to stretch out the lead. In this case, the difference in tempo from an average game is worth 1.7 points but my ratings still favor Michigan by 16 points in this game (with a total of 126 points). The Wolverines apply to a 30-7-3 ATS first round situation and I’ll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion at -16 or less and a lean at -16 ½.
Harvard (+3) over Cincinnati
11:10 AM Pacific Rotation: 733
Harvard upset #3 seeded New Mexico in the first round last season as a 14th seed and this year’s Crimson are ranked a bit higher in my ratings. Harvard is a well balanced team that is good on both sides of the ball. Last year the Crimson had a perfect draw against a New Mexico team that ranked 215th in the nation in 3-point defense. Cincinnati defends well all over the court and their 31.9% 3-point defense should keep Harvard from going nuts from the outside. However, Harvard is a good defensive team (30th in compensated points per possession allowed) and Cincinnati can struggle offensively because of their bad shooting (243rd in effective field goal percentage). I think Harvard is a bit underrated and my ratings favor the Bearcats by just ½ a point. I’ll lean with Harvard at +2 points or higher and I have no opinion on the total (I project 123 ½ points, which is too close to the actual line).
Delaware (+14) over Michigan State
01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 735
Delaware is no pushover, as the Blue Hens have a guard oriented team that doesn’t make mistakes (4th in the nation in fewest offensive turnovers per possession) and have 3 players averaging 18 points per game or more (all guards). Delaware has faced two NCAA caliber teams in Villanova and Ohio State and they lost those two games on the road by an average of just 8 points, so don’t be surprised if the Hens are competitive against the Spartans. Delaware struggled a bit near the end of their conference season but that was partially due to the absence of point guard Jarvis Threatt (18.1 points, 5.6 assists, and 2.6 steals per game) and big man Marvin King-Davis (first big man off the bench), who were both suspended for 9 games. Delaware has won 12 games in a row with Threatt running the show, so they’re a bit underrated. Michigan State had some key injuries this season too (4 starters missed a total of 23 games) and the Spartans were 12-5 when at least one of the starters was out and 14-3 in games with all 5 starters playing (losses to North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio State). Michigan State’s rating in those 17 games with all 5 starters playing is a couple of points better than their overall rating and would put them at #6 in my ratings. The adjustment seems to have been made for each team’s current form, as my ratings favor Michigan State by 13.7 points (with a total of 158 points) even after taking into account the high number of possessions that are likely in this game. The reason I like Delaware is a 41-105-3 ATS NCAA Tournament situation that applies to Michigan State and it certainly would be reasonable for the Spartans to relax against a lesser opponent after sweeping through the Big 10 tournament and beating rival Michigan to win the Championship. Delaware has proven that they can be competitive against very good teams but I’m still hesitant to pull the trigger on this game as a Best Bet. However, I’ll consider Delaware a Strong Opinion at +13 or more and I’ll lean with the Over.
North Dakota State (+3 ½) over Oklahoma
04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 737
North Dakota State is a pretty good team with a future NBA player in Taylor Braun, a well-rounded player that shoots well (49% overall and 44% from 3-point range) and led his team in not only scoring (18.2 ppg) but rebounding, assists and steals. The offensively efficient Bison (20th in the nation in compensated offensive points per possession and 4th in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage) should be able to score the basketball but they’ll have trouble defending a good offensive team the Oklahoma, whose habit of taking and making 3-point shots (37.9%) works well against a Bison squad that ranks 309th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (37.5% allowed). North Dakota State’s most impressive win was at Notre Dame, which really isn’t that impressive, and the Bison were 0-3 against teams better than the Irish – losing by 13 at St. Mary’s and at home to Southern Miss (two teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament) while losing by 17 at Ohio State, the only NCAA Tournament caliber team that they faced. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 4.2 points (with a total of 153 points) and the favorable matchup for Oklahoma is more than negated by a 43-11-1 ATS situation that favors NDSU and an 11-30 ATS situation that applies to Oklahoma that is based on their early exit from the Big 12 tournament (a loss to Baylor in their first tournament game. I’ll lean with North Dakota State plus the points and I’ll lean Over the 150 ½ point total.
San Diego State (-7) vs New Mexico State
06:57 PM Pacific Rotation: 740
I was hoping the line on this game would be lower because I have a lot of good first round situations that favor San Diego State. The Aztecs apply to a 61-17-2 ATS situation and a 40-11-2 ATS situation and the record is 6-1 ATS when both angles apply to the same game. Unfortunately, I think the line is too high. The match up really doesn’t favor either team in the half court, as both teams rely heavily on their inside game and both teams defend the interior very well. New Mexico State did win by 6 points on the road against a New Mexico team with very similar characteristics to the Aztecs but they also lost by 9 at home to the Lobos while losing by 12 at Gonzaga and by 26 points at Arizona. San Diego State also lost to New Mexico. In fact, two of the Aztecs’ 4 losses were to New Mexico, whose great interior defense (4th in the nation in 2-point percentage allowed) matches up well against San Diego State. New Mexico State defends the rim well too with the tallest team in the nation. The Aggies have 7’5 Sim Bhullar swatting 3.4 shots per game and the Aggies have two 6’10 players that also defend well. Bhullare missed a stretch of games in the middle of the season and the Aggies weren’t as good without him, so they’re a bit underrated. My ratings only favor the Aztecs by 5.7 points (with a total of 127 ½ points) the situations favoring San Diego State are so good that I’ll lean with San Diego State at -7 or less.
**Florida (-21 ½) over Albany
01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 718
Albany earned the right to get destroyed by Florida with their Tuesday night win over Mount St. Mary’s but the Great Danes will be overwhelmed by Florida’s defense. Albany is a pretty solid defensive team (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are horrible offensively (228th in compensated offensive efficiency) and were relatively worse offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. Albany is simply too careless with the basketball (273rd in offensive turnover percentage) to function against the Gators, who rank 14th in defensive turnovers forced percentage. Albany didn’t face a team nearly as good defensive as Florida but their games against better than average defensive teams Pitt and Vermont, who they faced 3 times, were mostly ugly offensive efforts, as the Danes combined for just 35.2% shooting in those 4 games. Albany managed to stay within 12 points of Pitt because the Panthers had a bad shooting night (1 for 10 from 3-point range and 56% from the free throw line) but my ratings favor Florida by 22 ½ points in this game (with a total of 115 ½ points), even with the slow expected pace factored in, and the Gators apply to a very good 60-18-1 ATS NCAA Tournament situation. Also, #1 seeds coming off a conference tournament win are 16-5 ATS in round 1 when favored by 24 points or less. The fact that the Gators almost blew their lead against Kentucky should give coach Donovan something to motivate his team with and playing in nearby Orlando should ensure that there will be plenty of Gators’ fans spurring their team on (Florida is 6-1 ATS under Donovan when playing an NCAA game in the state of Florida). I also like that Florida has a history of beating the crap out of bad teams in the opening round, as the Gators are 4-0 ATS under Donovan in first round games when favored by more than 12 points, winning those by margins of 30 points, 43 points, 28 points, and 32 points. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and as 3-Star Best Bet at -21 or less. I will also lean Under, as my ratings project only 115 ½ total points.
***Duke (-12 ½) over Mercer
09:15 AM Pacific Rotation: 824
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
**Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin
04:27 PM Pacific Rotation: 846
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).
Virginia (-21 ½) vs Coastal Carolina
06:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 826
Coastal Carolina is pretty good defensively but they rank near the bottom of the nation in compensated offensive points per possession, which is the case due to a combination of bad shooting and sloppy play (297th in offensive turnover percentage). Coastal Carolina played two borderline NCAA Tournament caliber teams with mixed results – a respectable 10 point loss at Minnesota and a 29 point loss at Clemson. While I don’t expect much scoring from the Chanticleers their defense is good enough to stay within a big number in what should be a very low scoring game. My ratings favor Virginia by just 20 ½ points (with a total of 117 ½ points) but #1 seeds favored by 24 points or less are 16-5 ATS, so I’ll pass on this game.
George Washington (+3) over Memphis
03:55 PM Pacific Rotation: 827
These teams are very similar in their overall rating and very similar in their statistical characteristics with Memphis being a little better offensively and George Washington being a little better defensively. Both teams prefer to attack the rim and both teams are relatively worse defending the interior than they are defending the 3-point line. So, I expect both teams to have pretty good success offensively. My ratings favor Memphis by just 1 point and GW could get a boost if #2 scorer and top defender Kethan Savage can play some quality minutes. Savage missed 13 games and came back to play just 1 minute in their Atlantic 10 conference loss to VCU. But, Savage may be ready to contribute more, which would be a bonus considering his efficient shooting (52% FG) and great defense (1.9 steals per game). My ratings like the Colonials even if Savage doesn’t play at all (I get Memphis by 1 ½ points in that case) and if Savage is 100% and playing his normal 27 minutes per game then I’d favor GW by ½ a point. I’ll lean with George Washington plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I get 143.5 points but that number would be lower if Savage and his good defense return to the rotation).
Stanford (+3) over New Mexico
10:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 829
New Lobos’ coach Craig Neal was an assistant under former head coach Steve Alford and this year’s New Mexico team is very similar to last year’s #3 seeded squad that got ousted in the first round by Harvard. I picked Harvard to win that game because the Crimson could take advantage of New Mexico’s bad 3-point shooting defense and wouldn’t be stupid enough to try to challenge the Lobos inside (they were 9th in 2-point defense last year). This year’s team is 4th in the nation is 2-point defense (41.4% allowed) but they are just average defending the 3-point arc (34.4%) and don’t force turnovers (341st in defensive turnover percentage). New Mexico was able to beat #4 seed San Diego State twice because the Aztecs are a bad shooting team that couldn’t take advantage of the Lobos’ defensive weakness, which is also the reason they were able to beat Cincinnati, who ranks 207th in 3-point shooting. However, Stanford can shoot the ball (37.1% 3-pointers) but the Cardinal actually don’t take that many 3-point shots (260th in 3-point shots as a percentage of overall shots). If Johnny Dawkins is smart enough to realize he needs to shoot more 3-pointers then the Cardinal should win this game and my ratings only favor New Mexico by 1 point (with a total of 138 ½ points) without taking the match up into account. I’ll consider Stanford a Strong Opinion at +3 or more and I’d still lean with the Cardinal at less than +3.
Over (148) – Kansas (-14 ½) vs Eastern Kentucky
01:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 831
Eastern Kentucky is a highly efficient offensive team that makes 39% of their 3-point shots and ranks 3rd in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage at 56.2%. However, the Colonels are a horrible defensive team that has given up 56.1% on 2-point shots and 36.3% on 3-pointers while also sending opponents to the line a lot. Eastern Kentucky depends on creating turnovers, and they do rank 5th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, but when the Colonels are not creating turnovers then they’ll give up points readily to any offense with a pulse. Teams that can handle the ball and play good defense will destroy the Colonels, as was the case when they visited Wisconsin in mid-December (a 61-86 loss). The Colonels did play well in an overtime loss at VCU, but the Rams are a bad shooting team that can get a bit sloppy with the ball at times (16 turnovers against Eastern Kentucky). Other than those two tournament teams, the next best team the Colonels faced was NC State, a team that takes care of the ball and runs an efficient offense. The result was a 21 point loss for Eastern Kentucky. On the plus side, Eastern Kentucky is 12th in 3-point shots taken percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and Kansas ranks 256th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (35.9% allowed). The Jayhawks are also turnover prone, ranking 232nd in offensive turnover percentage. Without injured shot blocker Joel Embiid (2.6 blocks per game) the Jayhawks are now more vulnerable inside and Eastern Kentucky’s efficient offense should have success. The Jayhawks will score at will though but relatively the matchup works for the Colonels and my ratings favor Kansas by 14.3 points with Embiid out. Unfortunately, Kansas applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that will force me to stay away from the side in this game. However, my math projects 154 total points with Embiid out and the Jayhawks have gone Over the total in 4 of the 5 games their defensive star has missed this season. I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 150 or lower and I’ll lean with Kansas at -15 or less based on the favorable situation.
Kansas State (+5) over Kentucky
06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 835
Kentucky’s good play in the SEC Tournament (3 spread wins), combined with the poor recent play of Kansas State (0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS) has skewed this line some, as my ratings favor Kentucky by just 3 ½ points. While it’s certainly possible that Kentucky is suddenly a better and more consistent team, we shouldn’t forget that the Wildcats had lost 5 straight to the spread before the SEC Tournament and that two of their good performances were against teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament field. The other, a 1 point loss to Florida, was close because Florida couldn’t make their free throws (7 for 17) to close out a game that they led comfortably most of way. Kentucky will no doubt dominate on the boards in this game but that is already factored in to the line. Kentucky is still just 3-8 against teams in my top-50 while Kansas State is 7-8 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams. I’ll lean with Kansas State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I project 132 ½ points).
Nebraska (+3 ½) over Baylor
09:40 AM Pacific Rotation: 837
The Huskers won 10 of their last 13 games and beat Ohio State, Michigan State (on the road), and Wisconsin and the reason for the sudden turnaround after a mediocre start to the season was an injury to ineffective point guard Deverll Biggs. Biggs only shot 43% from the floor and averaged 2.3 turnovers against just 1.5 assists per game. Biggs’ injury had resulted in fewer mistakes, as the Cornhuskers had a turnover margin of -1.4 per game