Thursday’s NCAAB Tournament Betting Cheat Sheets
Thursday is the Big Day, March Madness officially begins with 16 games on the schedule to wet your whistle.
***** NCAAB East Region Betting Cheat Sheet
(16) Lafayette Leopards vs. (1) Villanova Wildcats (-23, 145.5)
Lafayette capped its stunning run to the Patriot League title with a 65-63 victory over American on March 11. The 16th-seeded Leopards finished in a tie for fourth in the regular season with a 9-9 league mark but rode the hot hand of sophomore guard Nick Lindner to the title. The Leopards last won a league tournament title in 2000 and are 0-4 in NCAA Tournament play.
The Wildcats edged Providence in the Big East semifinals with the help of a controversial call, but they needed no aid in throttling Xavier in the final to win their second conference crown and the first for veteran coach Jay Wright. Josh Hart won the Big East’s sixth man award and enters the tournament on a roll after averaging 17.7 points in the tournament while shooting 72.4 percent from the floor in the past three games.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last seven neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
(9) LSU Tigers vs. (8) North Carolina State Wolfpack (-2, 140.5)
The Tigers’ strength is on the interior, ranking seventh nationally with 6.2 blocked shots per game and 12th in the country in total rebounding (39.2). Jordan Mickey was slowed by a bruised shoulder late in the season but led the SEC in double-doubles (15) and the SEC in rebounding (9.8), and Jarell Martin averaged 22 points in his final six games.
Trevor Lacey finished sixth in the ACC in scoring at 15.8 points and had reached double figures in 16 consecutive games before finishing with just four against Duke. Ralston Turner, who played two seasons at LSU before transferring, averages 13.2 points while Anthony Barber scored 17.6 points per game in a 10-game stretch before suffering a neck injury against the Blue Devils (he has been cleared to return).
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-0 in Tigers last six vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wolfpack are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
***** NCAAB Midwest Region Betting Cheat Sheet
(14) Northeastern Huskies vs. (3) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12.5, 140)
Ninth-year coach Bill Coen’s squad finished 11-21 a year ago but began this season with a 5-1 mark, including a 76-73 win over Florida State on Nov. 18. Forward Quincy Ford received MVP honors at the CAA tournament and was joined on the all-tournament team by Eatherton and guard David Walker, who averages 13.4 points and a team-high 3.5 assists. The Huskies won six of their last seven games but ranked ninth in the CAA in field-goal percentage defense (44.5), which could mean trouble against the sharpshooting Irish.
Notre Dame doesn’t lack for confidence heading into Thursday’s second-round matchup with No. 14 seed Northeastern in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament in Pittsburgh. The third-seeded Irish are riding a five-game winning streak highlighted by Saturday’s 90-82 victory over North Carolina in the ACC tournament title game. “Offensively, I feel like we’re the best team in the country,” guard Jerian Grant told reporters. “It’s going to take us a long way. You have to guard all five of us.”
TRENDS:
* Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
* Over is 13-5 in Huskies last 18 overall.
(11) Texas Longhorns vs. (6) Butler Bulldogs (+2, 123.5)
Texas looked like a bubble team, at best, after two four-game losing streaks during conference play, but the Longhorns won their final two games of the regular season, including an overtime victory over Baylor, and knocked off Texas Tech in the first round of the Big 12 tournament to earn their second straight NCAA Tournament bid and their 16th in 17 years. “I don’t think there is any team that would want to play us by just the way we have played the last couple of weeks,” Texas coach Rick Barnes told reporters after his team squandered a 16-point lead and lost to Iowa State on a buzzer-beater. “We’re good enough to play and beat anybody in the country, and I believe that.”
Butler has become synonymous with unexpected runs in the NCAA Tournament, but the sixth-seeded Bulldogs hope to avoid their second one-and-done performance in a week when they take on No. 11 seed Texas in the Midwest Region on Thursday in Pittsburgh, Pa. Butler received a strong seed considering its quarterfinal loss to Xavier in the Big East Tournament. But the Bulldogs got a tough opening draw with the Longhorns, who pushed Iowa State to the brink in the Big 12 championship quarterfinals.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-0 in Longhorns last six overall.
* Longhorns are 0-6 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Bulldogs are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games.
(9) Purdue Boilersmakers vs. (8) Cincinnati Bearcats (+2, 118.5)
A.J. Hammons leads the Boilermakers with 11.8 points on 53.4 percent shooting, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. Rapheal Davis adds 10.9 points and 2.7 assists and was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year. Jon Octeus chips in 9.3 points and 2.7 assists for a Boilermakers team that led the Big Ten in field-goal percentage defense (39.3) during league play.
The Bearcats – who led the American Athletic Conference and are ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense – will be a good matchup for a Purdue team that found its defensive identity during Big Ten play. Octavius Ellis leads the Bearcats’ balanced offense with 10 points per game on 57.8 percent shooting, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. Troy Caupain adds 9.5 points and 3.5 assists for a team that had a five-game win streak snapped by defending national champion Connecticut in the AAC tournament.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in Boilermakers last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 23-9 in Bearcats last 32 neutral site games.
* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
(16) Hampton Pirates vs. (1) Kentucky Wildcats (-32, 134.5)
The 16th-seeded Pirates defeated Manhattan 74-64 in Tuesday’s first round for their fifth straight victory. Hampton’s near-impossible task could be even more difficult with leading scorer Dwight Meikle (13.0) and Quinton Chievous (10.3) questionable because of ankle injuries.
Top-seed Kentucky begins the final phase of its quest for a perfect season when it takes on Hampton in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Louisville, Ky. “I think I have the best team and the best players,” Wildcats coach John Calipari told reporters. “Doesn’t mean we’re going to win. It means we have the best chance to win.”
TRENDS:
* Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Under is 12-2 in Wildcats last 14 non-conference games.
***** NCAAB West Region Betting Cheat Sheet
(14) Georgia State Panthers vs. (3) Baylor Bears (-9, 127)
The Panthers have not been to the NCAAs since 2001, when they upset Wisconsin in the first round. R.J. Hunter, son of coach Ron Hunter, is a legitimate NBA prospect who averages 19.8 points and Harrow, a Kentucky transfer who missed the conference tournament with a hamstring injury, scores 19.7 per contest.
The Bears played ranked competition in 12 of their 18 conference games, going 7-5 and sweeping eventual Big 12 tournament champion Iowa State while losing three times to runner-up Kansas. Rico Gathers anchors the Big 12’s stingiest defense, ranking fourth nationally at 11.8 rebounds per game.
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Bears are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 9-3 in Panthers last 12 overall.
(15) Texas Southern Tigers vs. (2) Arizona Wildcats (-23.5, 134)
Coach Mike Davis is leading the Tigers back to the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year after the Tigers fell to Cal Poly as a No. 15 seed in last season’s first round. Nine players average at least 12.4 minutes per game, including senior point guard Madarious Gibbs, who averages a team-high 14.2 points along with 4.3 assists and 3.4 rebounds.
The second-seeded Wildcats, who have won 11 in a row and 17 of their last 18, routed Oregon 80-52 in Saturday’s Pac-12 tournament title game. Brandon Ashley received MVP honors after averaging 19.7 points as the Wildcats became the first team in seven years to win Pac-12 regular-season and tournament titles.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.
* Over is 4-1 in Tigers last five neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last five NCAA Tournament games.
(11) Ole Miss Rebels vs. (6) Xavier Musketeers (-2, 144.5)
Ole Miss, who took top-ranked Kentucky to overtime in January, is led by the backcourt duo of Stefan Moody and Jarvis Summers. The Rebels will have to raise their game defensively against the Musketeers, who shoot 47.3 percent from the field and have five players with at least 29 made 3-pointers. “A lot of times it’s all about matchups in the tournament and who really starts playing their best basketball down the stretch,” Xavier coach Chris Mack told the Cincinnati Enquirer. “. … I really like the way we’re playing.”
The balanced Musketeers won three in a row before losing to Villanova 69-52 in the Big East championship game last Saturday. Xavier looks to cool off the Rebels, who shot 60 percent and scored 62 points in the second half Tuesday to rally from 17 down and beat BYU 94-90 in the first round. Xavier G Dee Davis led the Big East in assists per game (6.1) and needs one to tie Dedrick Finn (481) for fifth on the school’s all-time list.
TRENDS:
* Under is 8-2 in Musketeers last 10 overall.
* Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 5-2 in Rebels last seven neutral site games.
(10) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (7) VCU Rams (+4, 137)
Ohio State earned the 10th seed in the West Region after falling to Michigan State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. The Buckeyes, who won their only national title in 1960, are making their seventh straight appearance and 31st overall in the NCAAs. Freshman star D’Angelo Russell paces the Ohio State offense, averaging 19.3 points, and is projected to be a high lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
Rising sideline star Shaka Smart brings his speedy VCU team into the NCAA Tournament on the heels of a 71-65 win over Dayton in the Atlantic 10 tournament title game. Smart, who rebuffed several coaching offers to remain at the school over the past few seasons, led the Rams to the Final Four in 2011 and will face Ohio State in a second-round game on Thursday in Portland. This is seventh-seeded VCU’s fifth straight year in the Big Dance in Smart’s sixth season as head coach.
TRENDS:
* Rams are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games.
* Buckeyes are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0 in Buckeyes last six non-conference games.
(13) Harvard Crimson vs. (4) North Carolina Tar Heels (-10.5, 133)
While Wesley Saunders gets the bulk of the praise – and rightly so after ranking in the top 10 in the Ivy League in points, rebounds, assists and steals – senior forward Steve Moundou-Missi has been the catalyst for the Crimson’s ability to shut down opponents. The conference’s Defensive Player of the Year has the athletic ability to defend multiple positions, which will help against North Carolina’s balanced inside-outside attack.
“Even in ’05 and in ’09 when we won the National Championship we lost in the conference tournament,” Roy Williams said after the loss to Fighting Irish when asked if he felt his team was jelling. “This team has a chance to make a really good run.” The first challenge will involve an experienced Crimson squad that has won a tournament game in each of the last two seasons and has appeared in the event four straight times, the first Ivy League program to do so since Princeton from 1989-92.
TRENDS:
* Crimson are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
(12) Wofford Terriers vs. (5) Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 136.5)
The Terriers are bound to be a popular upset pick as they enter the tournament having won eight straight and 15 of their last 16 including a 67-64 win over rival Furman in the Southern Conference tournament championship game. “It’s different than last year where we knew we would be a higher seed, a 15 seed,” senior forward Eric Garcia told reporters. “This year … we are confident going into any game that we can win.”
While none of the Razorbacks’ players have been to the NCAA Tournament, coach Mike Anderson is no stranger, having made six previous appearances with UAB and Missouri. Arkansas boasts one of the most dynamic duos in the SEC if not the country in Bobby Portis (17.5 points, 8.6 rebounds) and Michael Qualls (15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds), while point guard Rashad Madden (9.7 points, 4.5 assists) is an excellent distributor.
TRENDS:
* Terriers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-1 in Terriers last eight overall.
***** NCAAB South Region Betting Cheat Sheet
(14) UAB Blazers vs. (3) Iowa State Cyclones (-13.5, 143.5)
Robert Brown, a junior transfer from Virginia Tech, was named the tournament MVP and leads the Blazers with 13.1 points. Six players – including freshmen Chris Cokley (eight points per game), William Lee (7.8 points and team-high 5.8 rebounds) and Nick Norton (7.6 points, 3.9 assists) average at least seven points.
A confident – and probably tired – Iowa State team earned its second straight No. 3 seed after winning its second straight Big 12 tournament. “Our schedule definitely helped us for what’s upcoming, not only the non-conference schedule, but what we’ve gone through the last couple weeks,” Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg told the Des Moines Register. “You play so many different styles over the course of a season – we’re a pretty confident team right now.”
TRENDS:
* Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference USA.
* Under is 5-1 in Cyclones last six overall.
(11) UCLA Bruins vs. (6) Southern Methodist Mustangs (-3.5, 133)
UCLA, which received an at-large bid, is making its 47th NCAA Tournament appearance. The Bruins are coming off a 70-64 loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals. UCLA has advanced to the NCAA Tournament three straight seasons and four times in the last five years.
The Mustangs, who won the AAC regular-season championship, are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1993. SMU beat defending national champion Connecticut 62-54 on Sunday to win its first conference tournament championship since 1988, when the Mustangs won the Southwestern Conference.
TRENDS:
* Bruins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Mustangs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Under is 11-4 in Bruins last 15 overall.
(12) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. (5) Utah Utes (-6.5, 131.5)
With a second straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament, a gaudy regular-season record and last year’s first-round upset of VCU, Stephen F. Austin may soon be making itself a national name in college basketball. Stephen F. Austin started the season 1-3, but has won 28 of its last 29 contests.
Closing out close games as been a bit of a problem for Utah lately, with a six-point loss to Arizona and a three-point setback to Oregon in the last few weeks and a 2-3 record this year in games decided by four points or fewer. The loss to the Ducks in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals was especially painful, as the game was tied with just seven seconds left before Oregon’s Joseph Young hit the game-winner to beat the buzzer.
TRENDS:
* Utes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
* Under is 7-1 in Lumberjacks last eight games following a ATS win.
* Under is 6-2 in Utes last eight overall.
(13) Eastern Washington Eagles vs. (4) Georgetown Hoyas (-7.5, 146.5)
Eastern Washington will be in search of its first victory in the NCAA Tournament when it faces fourth-seeded Georgetown on Thursday in Portland, Ore. The 13th-seeded Eagles used a furious second-half rally to capture the Big Sky tournament title Saturday over Montana and secure their second appearance in the Big Dance.
Georgetown, which lost to Xavier in the Big East tournament semifinals, returns to the NCAA Tournament after a one-year absence. The Hoyas dropped their NCAA opener in three of its last four appearances and haven’t reached the Sweet Sixteen since going to the Final Four in 2007.
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
* Hoyas are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Hoyas last eight non-conference games.
NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Thursday
by Alan Matthews
It’s one of the best sports days of the year on Thursday as the NCAA Tournament begins in full with games from noon to past midnight. As one who works from home, I certainly enjoy having live sports action going on during the day. Alas, it also makes me want to head to the sports pub (or Las Vegas). I’ll likely be previewing many Kentucky games during the Big Dance, but I’ll pass on Thursday’s matchup against No. 16 Hampton because that clearly will be a slaughter. At Bovada, UK is +110 to win the tournament and -140 not to.
No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 6 SMU (-3.5, 133)
It’s a 3:10 p.m. start (approx.) for this South Region matchup from Louisville on truTV. The winner gets the No. 3 Iowa State-No. 14 UAB victor on Saturday. Of course, SMU is coached by Larry Brown, who among his many stops also coached UCLA from 1979-81.
SMU (27-6) was the preseason favorite in the American Athletic Conference, and it won the regular-season title and beat defending National Champion UConn 62-54 in the conference title game, ensuring the Huskies wouldn’t get a chance to repeat. The tournament title was the first for the Mustangs since the 1988 team won the Southwest Conference. It’s only the second time in school history it won the regular-season and tournament titles. The Mustangs are in the Big Dance for the first time since 1993 — they were arguably the top snub last year. SMU is a three-man team for the most part. Junior guard Nic Moore leads the team in scoring (14.2 ppg) and assists (5.2 apg) and was the AAC Player of the Year. Senior center Yanick Moreira (11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg) was the conference’s Most Improved Player, and junior forward Markus Kennedy (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) was the Sixth Man of the Year.
UCLA (20-13), in my opinion, did not belong in the Big Dance. Sure, the Bruins had 20 wins and were 11-7 in the Pac-12, but they haven’t beaten another tournament team since Valentine’s Day. They also didn’t beat anyone of note out of conference, losing by double digits to Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga and Kentucky (whopping 83-44 score). But it’s UCLA and it’s a brand name. This could be the final game for UCLA leading scorer Norman Powell. The senior averages 16.4 ppg while adding 4.7 rebounds. I’m also guessing that freshman Kevin Looney is one-and-done. He averages 11.8 points and a team-best 9.2 rebounds.
UCLA is 2-0 all-time vs. SMU, but they haven’t played since 1976. The Bruins and Mustangs both played Gonzaga this year. SMU lost 72-56 at Spokane on Nov. 17 and the Zags won 87-74 at UCLA on Dec. 13.
Key trends: UCLA is 4-0 against the spread in its past four after a loss and 6-0 ATS in its past six vs. teams with a winning record. SMU is 6-2 ATS in its past eight against teams with a winning record. The “over/under” has gone under in 11 of UCLA’s past 15. The under is 5-2 in SMU’s past seven at a neutral site.
Why take the favorite: Mustangs have too much size and are very well-coached.
No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth (+4, 137)
A 4:40 p.m. (approx.) time on TNT for this West Region game from Portland. The winner almost surely will face No. 2 Arizona on Saturday.
Ohio State (23-10) is one of the few higher seeds that’s a favorite, and I think this might be the best first-round game Thursday. The Buckeyes lost two of their final three games, falling to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. I guarantee you that OSU freshman D’Angelo Russell will be one-and-done in Columbus, so this could be his finale as Russell is a lock Top-5 pick this summer. The Freshman All-American leads the Buckeyes in scoring (19.3 ppg.) and rebounding (5.6 rpg.) and is second is assists (168) and steals (53). He has scored 20 or more points 15 times this season and twice has reached the 30-point plateau. The only other Buckeye in double-figure points is senior forward Sam Thompson (10.2 ppg).
VCU (26-9) was the preseason Atlantic 10 favorite. The Rams only finished fourth in the regular season but ended the year on a five-game winning streak, beating Dayton in the conference tournament championship game. VCU plays one of the most hectic defensive schemes in the country, called “Havoc” with that full-court press. The Rams rank third nationally in steals but did lose their best defender and national steals leader (at time) in Briante Weber for the season in early February. I think that ended VCU’s Final Four chances, but it can still win a couple of games. VCU is 2-1 against Power 5 teams this season, beating Tennessee and Oregon and losing to Virginia. The Rams’ best win was on Dec. 23 against Northern Iowa.
OSU and VCU have never played.
Key trends: Ohio State has covered 10 of its past 13 following an ATS loss. The Buckeyes are 2-10 ATS in their past 12 at a neutral site. VCU is 4-1 in its past five at a neutral site. The over is 6-0 in Ohio State’s past six non-conference games. The over is 5-1 in VCU’s past six after a win.
Why take the underdog: Rams’ pressure can help neutralize Russell.
No. 13 Harvard vs. No. 4 North Carolina (-11, 132.5)
This South Region game from Jacksonville is at 7:20 p.m. ET on TNT. The winner plays either No. 5 Arkansas or No. 12 Wofford on Saturday.
Harvard (22-7) is very fortunate to be here. Yale beat Harvard in Cambridge on March 6 in the penultimate game of the Ivy League regular season to take a one-game lead. All the Bulldogs had to do to win the conference title and automatic NCAA bid was win at Dartmouth the next night (or have Harvard lose). However, Yale lost in the final seconds, Harvard won and Yale was beaten 53-51 in a one-game playoff by Harvard on Saturday. It’s the fourth straight NCAA bid for the Crimson, who have won a game in the past two tournaments. I don’t think this Harvard team is as good as those, but it does have the Ivy League’s best player in Wesley Saunders.
North Carolina (24-11) finished a disappointing fifth in the ACC regular-season standings but upset Louisville and Virginia in the conference tournament before falling to Notre Dame 90-82 in the championship game. The Heels led that midway through the second half. The pace of play will determine this one. Harvard isn’t great offensively and plays slow, allowing just 57.2 points. UNC plays fast and ranks 17th in scoring (77.9 ppg) and is among the rebounding and assists leaders in the country.
Harvard played three Power 5 teams during the regular season and lost them all: 76-27 at Virginia (yikes!), 56-46 at Arizona State and 64-57 in OT at Boston College. UNC was 1-1 vs. Virginia and beat BC by 11.
Key trends: Harvard is 1-4 ATS in its past five nonconference games. It is 7-2 in its past nine vs. the ACC. UNC is 4-0 ATS in its past four out of conference. The under is 8-1 in Harvard’s past nine non-conference games. The over is 4-1 in UNC’s past six outside the ACC.
Why take the favorite: UNC just has too much talent, and that ACC run will have boosted confidence.
College Basketball
Thursday’s NCAA games
Notre Dame maxed-out last week winning ACC tourney, its first tourney win; they were solid sleeper choice for Final Four until they got put into Kentucky’s region. Fighting Irish are diverse on offense, pass it real well, shoot 39.2% (#17) from arc and have best eFG% in country, but they’ve also lost in first round of NCAAs three of last four years; last time they made Sweet 16 was 2003. Northeastern drilled 12-20 from arc in winning CAA title game ten days ago; Huskies are 1-2 vs top 100 teams; best win is over #50 Richmond. CAA teams lost in first round last two years by 21-15 points.
UAB won C-USA tournament because it was played in Birmingham and refs wouldn’t let them lose semi-final game vs #1 seed La Tech (FTs that game were 32-7). Blazers are 7th-youngest team in America- at one point this year, they were 4-9– they lost last four games away from home- last road win was Jan 31. UAB turns ball over 20.4 of time, but their coach is Kansas alum and Jayhawks are Iowa State’s nemesis. Cyclones won their second straight Big X tournament, but they’ve been falling behind and then making huge second half runs.
Georgia State’s Harrow (hamstring) is a ?? for this game; their coach tore his achilles tendon after they won conference tourney Sunday– that had to hurt team’s prep for this. Panthers lost by 23 at Iowa State Nov 17, its only game vs Big X team this year- they force turnovers 22.8% of time, #16 in country. Sun Belt teams are 1-6 vs spread in last seven tourney games; last Sun Belt win in non-play-in game was Western Kentucky in ’09. Baylor is my sleeper pick to make Final Four; #3 seeds are 10-6 vs spread in first round games last four years.
Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis, who led Indiana to Final Four in 2002; his Tigers played one home game before Jan 17- they were 6-10 playing money grab games all over America, but they beat Michigan State in OT, and won at Kansas State- they have collection of transfers from all over, some of whom have had multiple chances. Arizona expects to get to Final Four; are 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all five wins by 18+ points- they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six first round games. Since ’07, SWAC teams are 2-4 against the spread in non-play-in games.
Texas turns ball over 20% of time, is 4th-worst team forcing turnovers in country; Longhorns split last four first round games, with all four games decided by six or less points. Texas went 3-5 in last eight games, finished T6 in Big X (best league in country)- -they were 11-2 out of conference. Butler lost by 13 to Oklahoma of Big X on neutral court in November. Big East teams were 2-4 SU in tourney LY, first year after teams shuffled conferences. Favorites are 9-2-1 in 6-11 games last three years- over last six years, 1st round faves of less than 5 points are 26-53-1 vs number.
UCLA is most controversial choice in this field; SMU was controversial omission from LY’s tourney. Bruins won last four first round games, but those were different players- UCLA was a #1 or 2 seed in three of those years, a 6-seed LY. Bruins lost six of last eight games away from home; they’re #314 experienced team in country. SMU is 24-3 in last 27 games, with two losses to Cincinnati, a great defensive team- UCLA isn’t great on defense. Mustangs are #81 team in experience and have Larry Brown on bench, who won this tourney last time he was in it, though that was 27 years ago.
Ole Miss went nuts in second half Tuesday, scoring 62 points in beating BYU 94-90; Cougars went 15-29 on arc and lost. Rebels have very short turnaround, playing afternoon game- they’re 2-4 in last six games, but Ole Miss came as close to anyone to beating Kentucky this year, losing 89-86 in OT at Rupp. Rebels beat Creighton of Big East in November. Kennedy used to coach at Cincinnati, so he is familar with a Xavier team that lost in double OT at Auburn in December (also beat Alabama by 13). Xavier split its last six games; four of their last five wins were by 2 or less or in overtime- they started season 10-3, they’re 11-10 in last 21 games.
VCU won A-14 tourney Sunday afternoon, now has Thursday afternoon game 2,900 miles away, tough scheduling spot. Rams won A-14 tourney despite losing PG Weber for season Jan 31- they’re better offensive team with Lewis at PG, not as good a pressing team. Rams went 32-72 (44%) from arc in last three games in Brooklyn last week. Ohio State went 4-4 in last eight games; an ESPN sideline reporter (former athlete) said he had severe doubts about Buckeyes’ team chemistry after listening to huddles during a game. OSU holds team to 31.8% from arc. Over last six years, underdogs are 16-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.
Lafayette coach O’Hanlon went to Villanova; his team was 9-9 in Patriot League before winning conference tourney – they’re #2 (41.4%) team in country shooting 3-pointers. Leopards lost at West Virginia by 27, lost at Kansas by 27, lost by 22 at Yale in only three games vs top 100 teams. Villanova is 2-5 vs spread in last seven first round games; they won by 7 over Bucknell in only game vs Patriot team this year. Wildcats probably spent time prepping for second round game (NC State/LSU); they’ve won last 15 games in row after winning first Big East tourney title in 20 years. Villanova is #27 team in country defending the arc.
Cincinnati lost to Creighton/Harvard in first round last two years; they’ve won five of last six games overall,. losing to UConn in Hartford last week in AAC tourney. Bearcats have an interim coach (Cronin took ill during season, is an advisor) are #258 experience team but have #19 defensive eFG% in country. Purdue is #311 in experience, is in tournament for first time in three years; Boilers are 2-3 in last five games, turning the ball over 20% of time for season- they were only 8-5 in pre-conference games. Over last eight years, underdogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Random odd stat: 4-13 game in West has seen the underdog go 12-2-1 vs spread last 15 years, with five SU upsets. Harvard is in tourney for 4th year in row; they won first round game last two years but this team isn’t quite as good as those- they lost 76-27 to Virginia, lost at Arizona State by 10 in only two non-conference top 100 games. North Carolina is 4-2 vs spread in last six first round games, winning all six- they’ve won six of last eight games overall. Ivy teams usually have extra week to prepare for this, but Harvard had to win playoff game Saturday, so they’re on same short prep time as Tar Heels. Amaker is a Duke alum, by the way.
Over last 12 years, Southland Conference teams have been single digit dog twice in first round; they won both games (’06/’14), their only two first round wins over that time. SF Austin upset VCU LY for one of the wins; Lumberjacks are 29-4 this year, 61-7 last two years- they’re also 1-3 vs top 100 non-league teams, losing by 2-18-16 points in November. Over last five years, underdogs are 17-7 vs spread in 5-12 games. Utah is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re #227 in experience. SFA forces turnovers on 24.3% of possessions (#5 in country).
LSU is in tourney for first time since ’09; Tigers lost by 3 to Clemson in only game vs SEC team this year. LSU is #13 in experience but has #21 defensive eFG%. NC State star Barber was banged-up last weekend, is expected to go here as former Alabama coach Gottfried faces an SEC foe in LSU that is 4-2 in last six games but got upset by Auburn in first SEC tourney game a week ago. Wolfpack won four of its last five first round games; they’re 6-2 in last eight games overall, 10-4 outside ACC. Again, over last eight years, underdogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Hampton had nice win over Manhattan Tuesday, turning ball over only 14 times vs Jaspers’ press, getting to foul line 34 times- they’re playing with house money vs powerful Kentucky team that has its eyes farther down road, as they chase history. Hampton lost at Iowa by 34, Syracuse by 18, Illinois by 18; they turn ball over 20.6% of time which will be a problem. Over last three tournaments, #1 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in first round. Hampton is #79 experienced team in country; Knetucky is 7th youngest team, so at least Pirates have one edge in this game.
12-seed Wofford is highest seed SoCon team has had since Davidson got to Elite 8 as 10-seed with Steph Curry in ’08; Terriers won at NC State in December, but lost by 15 at Stanford, 33 at West Virginia, 29 at Duke. Wofford is 0-3 in NCAAs (2-1 vs spread) losing by 4-8-17 points- they lost 57-40 to Michigan in first round LY. Arkansas is in tourney for first time since ’08; they force turnovers 22.6% of time, #20 in country. Hogs played Sunday; Wofford hasn’t played in 10 days, which is edge for them in this case. Over last five years, dogs are 17-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.
Eastern Washington’s coach told Jim Rome on air his team was going to beat Georgetown in this game. His Eagles won conference tourney game on Montana’s home court, they won 88-86 at Indiana, lost at SMU by 9, so they’re capable,, but Big Sky teams lost last nine tourney games (2-7 vs spread), so there’s a gap there somewhere. Georgetown’s tournament history is awful, losing three of first four first round games, losing twice as a 13-point favorite. Hoyas’ last four games were all decided by six or less points. 4-seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round last three years.
Ohio State and VCU clash Thursday
By: Zach Cohen
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (23-10) vs. VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH RAMS (26-9)
Rose Quarter – Portland, OR
NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -4
A spot in the third round of the NCAA tournament is on the line when Ohio State takes on VCU in Portland Thursday.
Here is the betting preview for this matchup:
Ohio State was unable to beat Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament, losing 76-67 as a 1.5-point underdog. The Buckeyes lost two of their past three games both SU and ATS heading into this tournament, allowing 72+ points in each of the three games. They’ll need to patch things up defensively or they’ll really struggle to advance any further than where they are now. VCU, meanwhile, comes into this tournament after beating Dayton 71-65 as a 2.5-point favorite in the Atlantic 10 championship game. The Rams have won five straight games SU and they’ve covered in their past three as well. This offense is hot lately, averaging 73.6 PPG over the course of the winning streak. This will be the first ever meeting between these two teams. Ohio State is 11-4 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. The Buckeyes are, however, 0-7 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points over the past three seasons. VCU is 12-3 ATS in NCAA tournament games since 1997. F Anthony Lee (Groin) is out indefinitely for the Buckeyes and G Briante Weber (Knee) is out for the season for the Rams.
Ohio State was unable to beat Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament, losing 76-67 as a 1.5-point underdog. This Buckeyes team is excellent offensively, averaging 75.8 PPG (24th in NCAA) on 48.6% shooting (11th in NCAA). They know how to move the ball (15.4 APG, 25th in NCAA) and also work very hard on the glass (35.8 RPG, 94th in NCAA). The team was also solid defensively throughout the year, giving up just 62.4 PPG (74th in NCAA). That has not been the case lately though and it will need to turn things around against VCU. G D’Angelo Russell (19.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.6 SPG) is the type of player that can carry a team far in this tournament. Russell has an impressive handle for a guy that is 6-foot-5 and that combined with his quick release makes him extremely tough to cover. He’s a lights-out shooter from behind the arc (42% 3PT) and can also get his teammates shots whenever he wants to. Russell is a triple-double threat whenever he is on the floor and he’ll need to be at his best on Thursday. G Shannon Scott (8.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.8 SPG) had been playing some of his best basketball of the season heading into the tournament. Over the past three games, Scott is averaging 14.7 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.7 RPG and 2.0 SPG. The senior has plenty of experience and will need to bring the same tenacity on both ends that he always does on Thursday. C Amir Williams (6.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is another player with a lot of experience for the Buckeyes. The senior is an outstanding shot-blocker and will need to provide some solid minutes of rim protection against a very good VCU offense. F Sam Thompson (10.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG) had 13 points in 34 minutes against Michigan State last game. Thompson is one of the most talented players on this team, but has scored in double digits in just two of his past five contests. He must find his game offensively on Thursday.
The Rams showed that they could put up points in a hurry this season, averaging 72.5 PPG (53rd in NCAA) on 42.0% shooting (256th in NCAA). The team had its struggles defensively though, allowing 65.5 PPG (143rd in NCAA). This game has all the makings of a shootout, but VCU will need to find a way to get timely stops down the stretch. F Treveon Graham (16.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.6 APG) will need to play his best basketball if the Rams are going to make a run in this tournament. Graham is an incredible scorer that can finish at the rim and shoot out to the three-point line (38% 3PT). He has been a monster for VCU recently, averaging 19.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 3.0 APG over the past two contests. This Rams team is undersized, so Graham will need to continue to rebound the ball effectively going forward. G Melvin Johnson (12.3 PPG, 1.1 SPG) has really struggled recently for the Rams, averaging just 7.0 PPG over the past two contests. Johnson averaged 19.5 PPG in the previous two games and VCU will need him to be reliable as a scorer in the tournament. He is a good outside shooter (37% 3PT) and needs to keep knocking down threes for this team. F Mo Alie-Cox (7.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) is the closest thing the Rams have to a true post player. He has stepped up his scoring while Johnson has struggled, averaging 15.5 PPG over the past two games. Alie-Cox is averaging 4.5 fouls per game over the past two games though, and the team does not have the frontcourt depth to put up with losing him against Ohio State. He must remain disciplined while also making a big impact on the glass and on defense. G JeQuan Lewis (8.4 PPG, 2.7 APG, 1.4 SPG) played very well in the conference tournament and averaged 14.0 PPG and 4.0 APG in the last two contests heading into this tournament. Lewis has struggled with his shot this season (37% FG), but can be a major x-factor if he is to get it going on Thursday.
EZWINNERS
Thursday Plays
3* (717) Northeastern +12
3* (729) UAB +13.5
3* (719) UT -2
3* (716) Xavier -2
3* (728) Cincinnati +2
3* (709) Wofford +7.5
STEVE FEZZIK
2* NC State
2* Under 119 – Purdue vs Cincy
2* Under 134 – UCLA vs SMU
1* Under 145 – Iowa State vs UAB
GREG SHAKER
3* OSU -3
THE FACTSMAN
NC State -1.5
Dominic Brando’s Inner Circle
Teaser Club, 3 Team 8 Points (risking 1.2 units to win 1.0)
#710 Arkansas Pick over Wofford
#712 North Carolina -2.5 over Harvard
#734 Utah +1.5 over Stephen F Austin
ARLON SPORTS
LSU +2
Cincinnati +2
SMU -4
DR. BOB
2* Butler
2* Cincinnati
2* LSU
1* Utah
NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, March 19 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
With the NCAA Tournament kicking off in full on Thursday, it’s a light four-game schedule in the NBA and no TNT doubleheader this week as that network is also college basketball focused for a while. The game of the night, in my opinion, is the ghastly matchup between the Knicks and Timberwolves, the teams with the worst records in the NBA. The loser could be the big winner, potentially holding a key tiebreaker by the end of the season for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery. Here’s a look at all four games.
Timberwolves at Knicks (TBA)
Plenty of good seats available! Minnesota played in Toronto on Wednesday. Nearly half the Timberwolves of relevance other than Andrew Wiggins were questionable for that one (thus the TBA). No way I play them here, even if they could. I’m wanting to lose this game if I’m both teams. I actually thought the Knicks would cover against the Spurs on Tuesday night, but I sure didn’t expect a 104-100 overtime upset. New York became the first team in NBA history to enter a game this late in the season with a winning percentage below .200 and beat the defending champions. The Knicks were down 13 in the third quarter and tied it at 96 with 5.5 seconds left in regulation on a Lou Amundson layup. Tim Hardaway Jr. missed the game with a sprained right wrist. The Knicks lost at Minnesota 115-99 on Nov. 19 as the Wolves’ Kevin Martin had 37.
Key trends: The Wolves have covered just eight of their past 32 in the second of a back-to-back. New York is 1-4 against the spread in its past five Thursday games. The “over/under” has gone over in five of the past seven meetings.
Early lean: Wait on all the Wolves.
Nuggets at Rockets (-8.5, 213.5)
Denver’s four-game winning streak ended with a 92-81 loss at Memphis on Monday, but that wasn’t a surprise because the Nuggets sat starters Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari. No, they weren’t hurt, and it wasn’t the players’ or coach’s call. It was the front office’s, and there still hasn’t been an explanation. I’ll give you one: the front office wants to lose as much as possible to improve draft position. Houston beat Orlando 107-94 on Tuesday for its second straight victory. James Harden had an off night, shooting 4-for-14 from the floor for 17 points. Coach Kevin McHale decided to start Joey Dorsey over Terrence Jones, who had started the past 11. I don’t think that’s a trend as Jones said it was a personal issue. Houston is 3-0 against Denver this year, scoring at least 108 points in each game.
Key trends: The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their past five games. Houston is 7-1 ATS in its past eight at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings.
Early lean: If all the Nuggets play, they cover. Go over.
Pelicans at Suns (TBA)
Phoenix will be well-rested, having been off since a 102-89 home win over the Knicks on Sunday. Eric Bledsoe was a rebound shy of a triple-double. Suns starters Brandon Knight and Alex Len sat with sprained ankles. Both are called day-to-day (thus TBA). Neither practiced on Tuesday, and Len in particular seems unlikely to play. New Orleans stands to benefit the most from the injury to Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka. The Pelicans start a tough three-game road trip here. They beat the visiting Bucks 85-84 on Tuesday. Anthony Davis struggled from the field but still had 20 points and 12 rebounds. The Pelicans and Suns have met just once thus far, a 110-106 New Orleans home win on Dec. 30.
Key trends: The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their past nine road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its past 13 after a double-digit win. The under is 6-0 in the Suns’ past six games. The home team has covered the past four meetings.
Early lean: I like the Pelicans whether Len and/or Knight play or not.
Jazz at Lakers (+5.5, 184)
Utah took a season-high six-game winning streak into Wednesday’s home game with Washington, and the Jazz have been by far the NBA’s best defensive club since the All-Star break. The Lakers gave the Warriors a good game Monday, with L.A. only losing 108-105 for its third straight defeat. Jordan Clarkson and Wayne Ellington each scored 17 points, while Jordan Hill had 15 points and 12 rebounds for the Lakers, who have lost eight of nine. These teams have split two meetings. One of the Jazz’s only bad games since the break was a 100-97 loss at home to L.A. on Feb. 25, with Utah blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead.
Key trends: L.A. is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games. The under is 7-2 in the Jazz’s past nine in the second of a back-to-back. The Lakers have covered five of the past seven meetings.
Early lean: Huge on the under. The side really depends on Wednesday. If the Jazz win, give the points here (unless it’s a draining OT game or something). If they lose, take the Lakers.
POINTWISE
NBA BASKETBALL
THURSDAY, MARCH 19 SCORE
(7:35) NEW YORK KNICKS 102 – Minnesota 101 _____ _____
(8:05) HOUSTON ROCKETS 115 – Denver Nuggets 98 _____ _____
(10:05) PHOENIX SUNS 104 – New Orleans 102 _____ _____
(10:35) Utah Jazz 103 – LOS ANGELES LAKERS 95 _____ _____
BEST BETS: HOUSTON (4)
PITTVIPER
Thursday March Madness
ROT# 721 – 6:50pm – Lafayette +23 (-105)
[6.5 point teaser – TIES WIN] = Georgetown -1/Oklahoma St +8 (-190)
Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks
by Matt Fargo
Jordan Spieth claimed his second PGA Tour event as he won in a playoff over Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed at the Valspar Championship. The PGA Tour continues the Florida swing with a trip to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a big event with a lot of big names and this will be the final stocked field until the Masters in three weeks. The headliner is Rory McIlroy who is making his first ever start at Bay Hill and he is the favorite at +500.
Bay Hill’s last significant upgrade came 22 years ago, when four holes were changed but six years ago, it was a full overhaul. Despite being raised from a par 70 to a par 72, the added yardage increased the cumulative scoring average as Bay Hill was third highest in difficulty of all par 72 non-majors five years ago and second highest in difficulty in 2011. In 2012, it was third in difficulty and in 2013, it was third-highest among 18 par 72’s in non-majors.
Bay Hill played as a par 70 of over 7,100 yards for three straight years from 2007-2009. It was the most difficult track of any non-major course in 2009, playing at +2.19 strokes to par. Five years ago, it played at +0.89 strokes over par, four years ago, it played +1.20 strokes over par, three years ago, it was +1.17 strokes over par, two years ago it was +0.928 strokes over par. Last year was one of the easier years at +0.47 over par. In five of the last 10 years, Bay Hill has played to at least one shot over par.
While McIlroy is the headliner, the field is a mighty one as the top five players in the world are all competing as well as 15 of the top 30. Eight-time winner Tiger Woods is sitting out the Invitational for the second straight year and just his third since turning pro in 1996. Overall, 31 of 36 winners at Bay Hill have been Americans. Last year, Matt Every was the first winner in five years not to have recorded a previous top-five finish on the Florida Swing leading up to the event.
Adam Scott (+2,000) missed his first cut since 2012 last week at Innisbrook, a place he has struggled in recent starts. He finished T4 in his first start of the season at the Cadillac Championship so he is certainly not rusty. Bay Hill has been up and down for him and last year he was making his first start here since 2009. He led by seven going into Sunday but a 76 pushed him back to third.
Harris English (+3,100) is a quality ball striker and he has some momentum from a Sunday 65 at the Valspar. He has been pretty up and down but he has missed just one cut in 2015 while bagging three top tens including a T3 at the Sony and a playoff setback at the Famers. He has gotten progressively better at Bay Hill, going from a MC in 2012 to a T57 in 2013 to a T14 last year.
Keegan Bradley (+3,200) isn’t exactly tearing things up this season but he hasn’t been horrible either. He has only one missed cut while putting up a trio of top fives including a T4 at the Northern Trust Open. His most recent finish was a T38 at the Cadillac Championship and Bay Hill has been one of his favorite stops the past two years with a solo second and a T3.
J.B. Holmes (+3,500) is hard not to root for and his game is back. He has been close to victory on two different occasions with a T2 at the Farmers and a solo second in his last start at the Cadillac Championship. He has never missed the cut at Bay Hill with his best finish being a T10 last year. Making that even more impressive is the fact he did not finish better than T52 in his previous four starts.
Kevin Na (+4,500) has not won since 2011 when he won at Justin Timberlake’s event but he has been close with three runner-up finishes the last two seasons. He is playing at his best right now with a T9 at the Cadillac Championship and a T10 last week at the Valspar. He has four top 15 finishes in his last five starts at Bay Hill including a T4 in 2012 and a T2 in 2010.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – All for 1 Unit
Adam Scott (+2,000)
Harris English (+3,100)
Keegan Bradley (+3,200)
J.B. Holmes (+3,500)
Kevin Na (+4,500)
2015 Record to date after 9 events: +41.5 Units.
Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Humana Challenge +24 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open +8.5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +18 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship +16 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units.