NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Thursday
by Alan Matthews
No team from the Western region of the USA has won the NCAA Tournament since Arizona in 1997, but that drought could finally end this year as there are three legitimate contenders from that part of the country in No. 2 Gonzaga, No. 6 Arizona and No. 13 Utah. With a weak WCC schedule that features no ranked teams remaining, it’s not hard to see Gonzaga running the table and earning the No. 1 seed in the Big Dance’s West Region over Arizona even though the Wildcats own a close head-to-head win. The Zags shouldn’t be lose Thursday night. Here’s a look at that and two other matchups that caught my eye.
Tulsa at Houston (+8.5)
It’s a 7 p.m. tip for this American Athletic Conference game on ESPNews. This smells like a major look-ahead game for Tulsa (16-5, 9-0), which is a surprise leader of the AAC. Why do I think that? The Golden Hurricane have their regular-season game of the year on Saturday at home against No. 23 SMU, which is right on Tulsa’s tail in the AAC. Tulsa comes off a 78-71 overtime home win over South Florida on Saturday for its 11th straight win. Rashad Smith had a season-high 21 points, including two key 3-pointers in overtime. Brandon Swannegan had career-highs of 12 points, 15 rebounds and matched a career-best five blocked shots. It was Tulsa’s 20th straight conference win, including conference tournament, the longest streak in program history. The 11-game winning streak is the school’s longest since the 1999-00 team won 13 straight games.
Houston (9-12, 1-8) has followed an eight-game losing streak with back-to-back wins. The Cougars shocked defending national champion UConn 70-68 on Sunday to all but end the Huskies’ chances of an at-large NCAA bid. Houston never trailed and committed just one turnover, a school record. It was the second straight season that Connecticut lost at Houston.
On Jan. 4 in Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane beat Houston 72-54 behind 18 points apiece from James Woodard and Shaquille Harrison. Tulsa won despite going 0-for-10 from 3-point range. It was 26-for-36 from the free-throw line while Houston scored only eight points from there. The Cougars hit only 35.9 percent overall and were led by 17 points from Jherrod Stiggers, but most of those were in garbage time.
Key trends: Tulsa is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 following an ATS loss. The Golden Hurricane are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 on the road. Houston is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Why take the underdog: I do think Tulsa gets caught looking ahead, and Houston actually has a bit of confidence right now.
Iowa at Michigan (-1)
This Big Ten matchup begins at 7 p.m. on ESPN. Michigan already lost its best player, Caris LeVert, for the season a few weeks ago and now the Wolverines are going to be without their second-best player, sophomore guard Derrick Walton, for the foreseeable future. He suffered a foot injury in late November then apparently aggravated it recently and has missed the past two games while being seen in a walking boot. Walton averages 10.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. The UM offense has badly missed him. The Wolverines scored just 58 points in a win Jan. 27 vs. Nebraska but were held scoreless in overtime in a 76-66 overtime loss at Michigan State on Super Bowl Sunday. Walton also grades out as Michigan’s best overall defender according to Synergy Sports, allowing just .595 points per possession. UM (13-9, 6-4) is squarely on the NCAA bubble.
So is Iowa (13-8, 4-4). The Hawkeyes are trending the wrong way as they have lost three straight, although two of those were to the Big Ten’s best team, Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes lost at home to the Badgers 74-63 on Saturday. The Hawkeyes shot better than Wisconsin, 47.9 percent to 44.2 percent, but the Badgers made seven 3-pointers to Iowa’s four, they converted 21-of-26 attempts from the free-throw stripe (13 of 20 for Iowa) and outrebounded Iowa by 11. Hawkeyes senior Aaron White was questionable with an injury but played 38 minutes and led the team with 15 points. Iowa is 12-1 this year when scoring 64+ points, with the lone loss coming to Iowa St. (90-75).
This is the only meeting of the season between the Hawkeyes and Wolverines. They split last season, with Michigan winning by eight in Ann Arbor and Iowa by 18 in Iowa City. The Wolverines have won five straight in the series at home.
Key trends: Iowa is 4-11 ATS in its past 15 vs. the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 after a loss. Michigan has covered four straight games. Iowa is 1-6 ATS in its past seven at Michigan.
Why take the favorite: This is one of those I just take the home team because it’s otherwise even.
No. 2 Gonzaga at Santa Clara (+17.5)
It’s a late 11 p.m. ET start on ESPN2 for this West Coast Conference matchup. I’m starting to think Gonzaga actually is the second-best team in the nation behind Kentucky because the Zags have a ton of size (like Kentucky) and are a veteran group. Gonzaga (22-1, 10-0) went out of conference on Saturday and thumped a solid Memphis team 82-64 in Spokane for its 15th straight win. It was also the Zags’ 38th straight home win, the longest streak in the nation. Gonzaga leads the nation in field goal percentage at 52.7 percent and hit 26 of 47 shots against Memphis (55.3 percent).
Santa Clara (11-12, 5-6), probably best known as the alma mater of Steve Nash, enters off losses at San Diego and BYU, which followed a four-game winning streak. In the 21-point loss at BYU on Saturday, the Broncos shot 34.4 percent from the field (21 of 61), including 18.2 percent from beyond the arc (4 of 22). Jared Brownridge scored 16 points to lead Santa Clara, which hasn’t beaten BYU since 1972. This will be just the sixth time in school history that Santa Clara has hosted a Top 2 team and the Broncos are 0-5.
On Jan. 10, Gonzaga was ranked No. 6 when it beat visiting Santa Clara 79-57. Zags 7-foot-1 center Przemek Karnowski scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds. Matt Hubbard had 15 points for Santa Clara, which shot just 35.2 percent and forced only six Gonzaga turnovers. The Bulldogs also dominated the boards 41-26. It was their ninth straight win in the series.
Key trends: Gonzaga has covered four of its past 21 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Santa Clara is 4-0 ATS in its past four after an ATS loss. The Broncos have covered five of their past seven at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The Zags are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings.
Why take the underdog: Game of the year at home for Santa Clara so they will be able to cover by a few points.
POINTWISE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
KEY RELEASES
STANFORD over Ucla (Thurs) RATING: 3
GEORGIA SO over Georgia St (Thurs) RATING: 4
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5 SCORE
(6:30) Richmond 71 – LASALLE 60 (NBCS) _____ _____
(7:00) MICHIGAN 68 – Iowa 67 (ESPN) _____ _____
(7:00) LSU 84 – Auburn 78 (ESPN2) _____ _____
(7:00) ELON 82 – Drexel 62 _____ _____
(7:00) MARSHALL 67 – Rice 64 _____ _____
(7:00) Tulsa 63 – HOUSTON 55 _____ _____
(7:30) William & Mary 70 – CHARLESTON 51 _____ _____
(7:30) FLA-INTERNATIONAL 76 – Texas-San Antonio 73 _____ _____
(7:30) GEORGIA SOUTHERN 74 – Georgia State 66 _____ _____
(8:00) WESTERN KENTUCKY 67 – North Texas 52 _____ _____
(8:00) WISC-GREEN BAY 82 – Wisc-Milwaukee 55 _____ _____
(8:00) MID TENNESSEE STATE 76 – So Mississippi 46 _____ _____
(8:00) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 80 – Utep 74 _____ _____
(8:15) LA-LAFAYETTE 75 – Appalachian State 59 _____ _____
(8:30) La-Monroe 66 – ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 63 _____ _____
(8:30) ARKANSAS STATE 71 – Troy 57 _____ _____
(9:00) STANFORD 88 – Ucla 69 (ESPN) _____ _____
(9:00) SMU 67 – Cincinnati 51 _____ _____
(9:00) UAB 75 – Louisiana Tech 66 (CBSC) _____ _____
(9:00) Portland 78 – SAN FRANCISCO 74 _____ _____
(10:00) LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 61 – San Diego 60 _____ _____
(10:00) CAL-POLY SLO 72 – Hawaii 64 _____ _____
(10:00) CAL-IRVINE 67 – Cal-Davis 52 _____ _____
(10:00) LONG BEACH STATE 73 – Cal-Riverside 63 _____ _____
(10:00) CAL-FULLERTON 76 – Cal-Northridge 74 _____ _____
(10:00) OREGON STATE 69 – Washington State 53 (PAC12) _____ _____
(11:00) Byu 70 – PEPPERDINE 65 _____ _____
(11:00) Gonzaga 67 – SANTA CLARA 54 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(11:00) Southern California 74 – CALIFORNIA 73 (FOX 1) _____ _____
BEST BETS: RICHMOND(3), GEORGIA SO(4), STANFORD (3), UAB, OREGON ST.
College Basketball
Iowa lost last three games by 32-4-11 points, scoring 58.7 ppg; they’ve lost last five visits here, by 15-14-14-28-8 points, are 2-8 overall in last ten series games. Hawkeyes are 1-2 as road underdogs, losing on road by 32-4 points after winning at Ohio State/Minnesota. Michigan State won its last four games, but last three were by six or less points ot in OT. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 11-8 against the spread.
Tulsa (-9) outscored Houston 26-8 on foul line, beat Cougars 72-54 at home Jan 4, despite going 0-10 from arc- they shot 62.2% inside the arc. Hurricane is 2-2 as road favorite, with four of five road wins in league play by 7 or less points. Houston beat UConn for first AAC win; they’re 2-7 vs spread in AAC, 1-2 as home underdogs, losing home games by 1-18-3 points. AAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 4-2 vs spread.
Home side won last five Georgia State-Georgia Southern games; Panthers lost last two visits here, both in OT, but those were non-league contests. Both sides won/covered their last four games; State is 2-2 on road in Sun Belt, with losses by 4-5 points. Southern is 2-1-1 as home favorite, with wins at home by 4-8-37-15 points. Eagles covered seven of last eight. Home teams are 7-17-2 in Sun Belt games with spread of 4 or less points.
SMU is 16-1 in its last 17 games; only loss was 56-50 (-1) at Cincinnati Jan 3; Bearcats shot 59% inside arc that game. Mustangs are 5-0 as home favorites, winning home games by 14+ points; they’ve won eight games in row since loss in Cincy. Bearcats won four of last five games, but are 1-3 in last four road games, losing by 6-13 points at UConn/Memphis last month, in addition to losing last game at East Carolina. AAC home faves of 6 or less points are 7-3 vs spread.
UCLA is 15-3 in its last 18 games with Stanford; they beat Cardinal by 5 in double OT Jan 8, win that ended Bruins’ 5-game skid, started them on current 5-2 streak. Stanford lost that game despite making 15-31 from arc and leading by 14 with 9:57 left. Cardinal is 3-1 at home in Pac-12, with only loss by 7 to Arizona; they’re 2-1 as home favorites, with wins by 15-8-19 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 13-7.
Louisiana Tech won eight of its last nine games, winning last three, all by 13+ points; Bulldogs are 4-1 on C-USA road with four wins by 12+ and only loss at North Texas. Tech (-14) beat UAB 74-71 at home Jan 15; Bulldogs forced 20 turnovers (+9) surviving Blazers making 6-11 on arc, shooting 59% inside arc. UAB won four of last five games, covering all nine league games- they’re 5-0 as underdogs, 1-0 at home. C-USA home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread.
Cal-Irvine won its last six games since losing Big West opener to Long Beach; they’ve won covered three in row at home since then, winning by 14-10-22 points. Anteaters won their last seven games with Cal-Davis, winning last five in Bren Center by 2-9-7-11-28 points. Davis is 6-1 in conference, with only loss by 8 at Hawai’i- they’ve won games by 13-11 at Riverside/Fullerton. Big West home favorites of 7+ points are 8-2.
Pepperdine (+15) upset BYU 67-61 in Provo Jan 8, holding Cougars to 26.6% from arc; Waves won two of last three series games after losing first four with BYU, three by 13+. Waves split first four WCC home games, losing to St Mary’s/Gonzaga. BYU lost last two road games by 5-3 points at St Mary’s/San Diego after winning first three games on road. WCC teams are 6-10 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Oregon State is 4-0 at home in Pac-12, winning by 8-2-11-4 points; they allowed average of 53.3 ppg in those games. Beavers won last four games with Washington State, beating Coogs 62-47 in Pullman Jan 17, holding Wazzu 29.2% from floor. Wazzu lost four of last five games, is 2-1-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 15-22-32 points, with wins at Cal, Washington. Pac-12 home favorites of 8+ points are 10-5-2 vs spread.
Quinnipac won nine of last ten games with Monmouth winning 66-61 in first meeting on road Jan 9, after they were down 6 with 10:57 left; they . won three of last four visits to this gym, with two wins by 17+ points. Bobcats are 1-4 as home favorites, losing three of five games SU, and one win over Manhattan by 14. Monmouth won three of last four games, is 1-3 as road underdog. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less are 7-14.
Wofford (-7) beat East Tennessee State 72-64 at home Jan 24, grabbing 13 offensive boards in game they led 30-23 at half. Terriers are 3-1 away from home, with only loss by 3 at Citadel; their road wins are by 3-4-16 points. Buccaneers lost three of last four games, are 4-2 at home, losing to Greensboro/Chattanooga- they’re 1-1 as SoCon dogs. East Tennessee is just 1-9-1 vs spread in league. SoCon home underdogs are 8-5 vs spread.
Belmont is 3-2 in OVC games with Eastern Kentucky but got upset by Colonels in OVC tourney last year; teams split two games played here. Bruins won last five games but are 2-2 on OVC road, losing by 11-15 at Eastern Illinois/Murray, winning at Austin Peay/Tenn State. OVC home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-5-1 vs spread. Colonels lost three of last four games; they’ve split only two OVC home games this season.
Montana fell out of first place tie last week, when they blew 69-61 lead in last 3:08 at Sacramento; Griz won six of last seven games with Eastern Washington- they’ve beaten Eagles here 10 years in row. Eastern won last three games, is 7-1 in league despite allowing 80+ points in each of last six games- they allowed 87 ppg in winning two of three on Big Sky road. Big Sky home favorites of 4 or less points are 8-6 against the spread.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | SAMFORD at W CAROLINA
Play Against – A favorite (W CAROLINA) after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
CBB | RICHMOND at LASALLE
Play On – A road team vs. the money line (RICHMOND) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more against opponent off a road win
79-114 since 1997. ( 40.9% | 60.8 units )
1-5 this year. ( 16.7% | -5.0 units )
CBB | NEBRASKA-OMAHA at N DAKOTA ST
Play On – Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a losing record
84-42 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.7% | 37.8 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )
NCAA Basketball Picks
Cincinnati at SMU
The Bearcats head to SMU tonight to face a Mustangs team that is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games. SMU is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Mustangs favored by 8 1/2.
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-6)
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5
Game 509-510: Richmond at LaSalle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 61.624; LaSalle 63.418
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 1
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (+1)
Game 511-512: Iowa at Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 64.558; Michigan 68.467
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 4
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2)
Game 513-514: Auburn at LSU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 57.202; LSU 72.145
Dunkel Line: LSU by 15
Vegas Line: LSU by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-11 1/2)
Game 515-516: Drexel at Elon (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 49.803; Elon 48.322
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Elon by 2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (+2)
Game 517-518: Rice at Marshall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 49.164; Marshall 47.576
Dunkel Line: Rice by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 5
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+5)
Game 519-520: Tulsa at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 62.838; Houston 59.927
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 3
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 6
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3)
Game 521-522: William & Mary at College of Charleston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 60.105; College of Charleston 50.984
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 9
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-6 1/2)
Game 523-524: TX-San Antonio at Florida International (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 51.050; Florida International 55.729
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida International by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-2 1/2)
Game 525-526: Georgia State at Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 54.483; Georgia Southern 60.834
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+1)
Game 527-528: North Texas at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 49.733; Western Kentucky 57.789
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 8
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 11
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+11)
Game 529-530: WI-Milwuakee at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 47.413; WI-Green Bay 64.995
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-15 1/2)
Game 531-532: Southern Mississippi at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 44.646; Middle Tennessee State 60.849
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 16
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-13 1/2)
Game 533-534: UTEP at Florida Atlantic (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 60.155; Florida Atlantic 51.533
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 6
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-6)
Game 535-536: Appalachian State at UL-Lafayette (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 46.480; UL-Lafayette 59.315
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 13
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-11 1/2)
Game 537-538: UL-Monroe at AR-Little Rock (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 51.125; AR-Little Rock 49.665
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: AR-Little Rock by 2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+2)
Game 539-540: Troy at Arkansas State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:Troy 45.586; Arkansas State 47.206
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+4 1/2)
Game 541-542: UCLA at Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 59.605; Stanford 73.152
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 7
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-7)
Game 543-544: Cincinnati at SMU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 64.541; SMU 72.983
Dunkel Line: SMU by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 6
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-6)
Game 545-546: Louisiana Tech at UAB (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 58.342; UAB 61.282
Dunkel Line: UAB by 3
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+3 1/2)
Game 547-548: Portland at San Francisco (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 54.579; San Francisco 56.091
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+4)
Game 549-550: San Diego at Loyola Marymount (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 55.503; Loyola Marymount 56.969
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola Marymount (+2 1/2)
Game 551-552: Hawaii at Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 56.809; Cal Poly 59.721
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 3
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+5 1/2)
Game 553-554: UC-Davis at UC-Irvine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 54.131; UC-Irvine 66.910
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 13
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (-10 1/2)
Game 555-556: UC-Riverside at Long Beach State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 48.258; Long Beach State 62.966
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-12 1/2)
Game 557-558: CS-Northridge at CS-Fullerton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 50.766; CS-Fullerton 50.864
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+3 1/2)
Game 559-560: Washington State at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 58.681; Oregon State 64.663
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 6
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+9)
Game 561-562: BYU at Pepperdine (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 64.425; Pepperdine 59.967
Dunkel Line: BYU by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-2)
Game 563-564: Gonzaga at Santa Clara (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 75.293; Santa Clara 56.995
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 17
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-17)
Game 565-566: USC at California (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 53.311; California 61.109
Dunkel Line: California by 8
Vegas Line: California by 5
Dunkel Pick: California (-5)
Game 567-568: Mercer at The Citadel (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 54.383; The Citadel 44.737
Dunkel Line: Mercer by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Mercer by 7
Dunkel Pick: Mercer (-7)
Game 569-570: Tennessee State at Morehead State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 44.436; Morehead State 55..737
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+13 1/2)
Game 571-572: Monmouth at Quinnipiac (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 54.255; Quinnipiac 56.003
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 2
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 5
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+5)
Game 573-574: Chattanooga at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 51.780; Furman 49.740
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 2
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+4 1/2)
Game 575-576: Wofford at East Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.125; East Tennessee State 55.209
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 1
Vegas Line: Wofford by 2
Dunkel Pick: East Tennessee State (+2)
Game 577-578: Oral Roberts at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 54.170; IUPUI 51.610
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 1
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (-1)
Game 579-580: Samford at Western Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 42.258; Western Carolina 53.287
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 11
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 8
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (-8)
Game 581-582: South Dakota State at IPFW (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 60.143; IPFW 59.572
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 1
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 3
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+3)
Game 583-584: NE-Omaha at North Dakota State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 48.671; North Dakota State 54.439
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 6
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NE-Oamaha (+8 1/2)
Game 585-586: Western Illinois at South Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 42.880; South Dakota 55.802
Dunkel Line: South Dakota by 13
Vegas Line: South Dakota by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota (-7 1/2)
Game 587-588: Fairfield at Rider (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 45.563; Rider 60.886
Dunkel Line: Rider by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-9 1/2)
Game 589-590: SE Missouri State at Murray State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 45.366; Murray State 65.789
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-14 1/2)
Game 591-592: Tennessee-Martin at Austin Peay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 52.784; Austin Peay 49.904
Dunkel Line: Tennessee-Martin by 3
Vegas Line: Tennessee-Martin by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+4 1/2)
Game 593-594: Northern Colorado at Northern Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 47.258; Northern Arizona 53.965
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-4 1/2)
Game 595-596: North Dakota at Southern Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 44.300; Southern Utah 42.286
Dunkel Line: North Dakota by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota
Game 597-598: Idaho at Montana State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 48.309; Montana State 44.284
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 4
Vegas Line: Idaho by 2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-2)
Game 599-600: Belmont at Eastern Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 51.898; Eastern Kentucky 58.365
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-3 1/2)
Game 601-602: Eastern Washington at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 54.308; Montana 52.921
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 1
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+1)
Game 611-612: Mt. St. Mary’s at Bryant (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mt. S.t Mary’s 51.191; Bryant 50.217
Dunkel Line: Mt. St. Mary’s by 1
Vegas Line: Bryant by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mt. St. Mary’s (+2 1/2)
Game 613-614: Colgate at Holy Cross (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 51.924; Holy Cross 48.734
Dunkel Line: Colgate by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Colgate
NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, February 5 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
Before this season began, my NBA Finals predicted matchups was L.A. Clippers against Cleveland Cavaliers. That still may happen, and is priced at +2100 on Sportsbook.ag, but I’m much more confident about the red-hot Cavaliers making it there than the Clippers. It’s not that L.A. isn’t a good team, but that the West is so tough. The Clips could win 55 games and not even get home-court advantage in a series. Thursday is the final meeting between the teams during the regular season. Here’s a look at the four games on the schedule.
Wizards at Hornets (+2.5, 186.5)
Second of a back-to-back for Washington as it played in Atlanta on Wednesday night so it could well enter this on a season-high four-game losing streak. The Wizards hosted the Hornets on Monday and lost 92-88 in the first meeting of the season. Al Jefferson had 18 points and 12 rebound and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 13 points and 13 rebounds. Charlotte forward Marvin Williams returned after missing two games with an injury and was scoreless but had seven rebounds. That win improved Charlotte, which hasn’t played since Monday, to 5-1 since Kemba Walker was lost to knee surgery, and that very much surprises me. His replacement, Brian Roberts, has done a solid job.
Key trends: Washington is 0-4 ATS in the past five meetings. The “over/under” has gone under in the past five.
Early lean: Wizards likely going to be spent after dealing with the high-flying Hawks, win or lose. Take the points and under.
Clippers at Cavaliers (-3.5, 208.5)
This is the TNT opener at 8 p.m. ET. L.A. comes off a puzzling 102-100 loss in Brooklyn on Monday. The Clippers blew a nine-point lead with 1:35 left in the game. The Nets’ Jarrett Jack won it with 1.3 seconds left. DeAndre Jordan had 22 points and 20 rebounds, his first career 20-20 game, but he was just 2-for-12 from the free-throw line. The Clippers finished 8 of 25 (32 percent) from the free-throw line. They and the Nets combined to go 16-for-43 from the charity stripe, the worst combined free-throw percentage in a game in NBA history. Cleveland brings in a season-high 11-game winning streak after falling a game under .500 before that run. The Cavs beat Philly 97-84 on Monday behind 24 points from Kyrie Irving and 18 points and 11 boards from LeBron James. James leads the Eastern Conference in scoring at 28.4 ppg during the winning streak while Irving is No. 3 at 25.8 ppg.
The Clippers hosted the Cavaliers on Jan. 16 and lost 126-121. Irving had 37 points, James 32 and Tristan Thompson 24 points and 12 rebounds. Thompson started because Kevin Love missed the game with a back injury. James became the youngest player in league history to reach 24,000 career points in that one. The Cavaliers shot 55 percent. Blake Griffin had 34 points and 19 rebounds for Los Angeles, while Chris Paul had 15 points and 14 assists. It was a great game to watch, up and down all night. The 126 points given up by the Clippers were a season-worst.
Key trends: The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their past six vs. the East. The Cavs have covered seven straight vs. the West. The under is 5-1 in L.A.’s past six. It is 6-0 in Cleveland’s past six after a win.
Early lean: Must-see TV here. Cavs and over.
Mavericks at Kings (+3.5, 208.5)
Second of a back-to-back for Dallas as it was in Golden State on Wednesday. Sacramento was looking for its first two-game winning streak since late November but was routed 121-96 at home to Golden State on Tuesday. Here I thought the Kings would show heart there because they had been blown out three times already by the Warriors, but instead Sacramento was outscored 23-0 at one point in the first half. DeMarcus Cousins had 26 points and 11 rebounds. The Mavs are 2-0 vs. the Kings this season. The one in Sacramento finished 108-104 in overtime on Jan. 13. Rajon Rondo, who won’t play in this game because of facial injuries, erased a one-point deficit with a 3-pointer to give Dallas the lead for good at 104-102 with 1:19 remaining. He finished with 21 points. Monta Ellis had 28 points and 10 assists as Dallas rallied from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit. Cousins, who fouled out late in the fourth quarter, had 32 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists. Sacramento lost Rudy Gay, its second-leading scorer, late in the first quarter with a left knee strain. Obviously not having those two in OT really hurt the Kings.
Key trends: The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 5-0 in the past five.
Early lean: Pretty much bet against any team the night after it has to play at Golden State. Thus take the points and go over.
Suns at Trail Blazers (-3.5, 211)
This is the TNT nightcap. Portland ended a three-game losing streak (but didn’t cover) with a 103-102 home win over Utah on Tuesday. Portland welcomed back starting center Robin Lopez, who had been out since fracturing his hand on Dec. 15. He started and had 11 points and six rebounds in 25 minutes. Phoenix has been off since a 102-101 home loss to Memphis on Monday. Markieff Morris tried to get off a game-winning shot, but it was blocked by Grizzlies center Marc Gasol. The Suns were up 101-94 with 1:49 left but obviously didn’t score again. The Suns’ three guards of Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic combined for 60 points. Fellow guard Gerald Green had two turnovers and a foul and took no shots in 3:26 on the floor in the first half and then didn’t see the court again.
Phoenix beat visiting Portland 118-113 on Jan. 21 in the only meeting so far. The Suns gagged away a 25-point second-quarter lead and trailed by five with 2:21 left, but Bledsoe scored seven points in the final 1:38. He finished with a career-high 33 points. Portland was without star big man LaMarcus Aldridge.
Key trends: The Suns are 8-1 in the past nine meetings. The under is 8-2 in the past 10.
Early lean: Blazers and over.
POINTWISE
NBA BASKETBALL
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5 SCORE
(7:05) Washington Wizards 102 – CHARLOTTE 95 _____ _____
(8:05) CLEVELAND CAVS 104 – LA Clippers 100 (TNT) _____ _____
(10:05) Dallas Mavericks 110 – SACRAMENTO KINGS 90 _____ _____
(10:35) PORTLAND BLAZERS 109 – Phoenix 104 (TNT) _____ _____
BEST BETS: DALLAS (4)
NBA
Hot Teams
— Hornets won 10 of their last 13 games (1-4 last five HF).
— Cleveland won its last 11 games, covering 10 of them. Clippers won six of their last eight games (2-4 AU).
— Dallas won three of last four games (8-2 last ten AF).
Cold Teams
— Washington lost last four games, is 0-8 vs spread in last eight.
— Kings lost nine of their last ten games (3-1 last four HU).
— Suns lost four of their last six games (1-3-1 last five AU). Portland lost three of last four games (1-7 last eight HF).
Series Records
— Hornets won their last four games with Washington.
— Clippers lost nine of last twelve games with Cleveland.
— Mavericks won 20 of last 22 games with Sacramento.
— Suns won six of last eight games with Portland.
Totals
— Last seven Charlotte home games stayed under.
— 12 of last 13 Cleveland home games stayed under.
— Five of last seven Dallas road games stayed under.
— Six of last nine Phoenix road games went over total.
Back-to-Backs
— Washington is 5-4 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Dallas is 4-7 vs spread if it played night before.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NBA | WASHINGTON at CHARLOTTE
Play Over – All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season
76-37 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 35.3 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
NBA | LA CLIPPERS at CLEVELAND
Play On – Any team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) off an upset loss as a road favorite, in February games
59-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.2% | 30.6 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.0 units )
NBA | WASHINGTON at CHARLOTTE
Play On – All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (WASHINGTON) good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=33%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO’s)
90-46 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 39.4 units )
7-1 this year. ( 87.5% | 5.9 units )
Game of the Day: Clippers at Cavaliers
Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5, 207)
Cleveland continues to push toward team history and looks to maintain its mastery of the Western Conference when it hosts the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday. The Cavaliers’ 11-game winning streak is two shy of the franchise record and they own a seven-game run against the West, including a 126-121 win at the Clippers on Jan. 16. Kyrie Irving had 37 points to lead the way for Cleveland, which seeks the season series sweep against a team it has owned at home, winning 11 of the last 12 matchups.
Los Angeles is 2-2 thus far on a season-high eight-game road trip and has likely needed its last two days off to get past a miserable collapse at Brooklyn on Monday. The Clippers led the Nets by nine points with less than two minutes remaining before fading down the stretch and falling on a jumper in the closing seconds to sink to 5-4 on the road against the East. DeAndre Jordan scored 22 points and grabbed 20 rebounds but was the primary culprit in a woeful 8-of-25 showing from the foul line by Los Angeles, going 2-of-12 at the stripe.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE HISTORY: The line opened at CLE -5 before quickly moving to -4.5. The total opened at 207,
INJURY REPORT: Clippers – G J.J. Reddick (Out-Back) Cavaliers – N/A
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “No one is really talking about the Clippers right now, which might be the best thing for them. I have them as the top threat to Golden State in the Western Conference. With Atlanta finally losing, the Cavs now have the league’s longest win streak. In my mind, they’re still the team to beat in the East come playoff time.” – Bryan Powers
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (33-16 SU, 20-29 ATS, 21-25-3 O/U): Los Angeles’ wasted chances at the line was a big reason it failed to hang on at Brooklyn, while the loss of J.J. Redick to back spasms did not help. The veteran, who is enjoying his finest shooting season of a nine-year career, lasted just four minutes before succumbing to the pain that has been bothering him for several days and will not return “until he’s right,” according to head coach Doc Rivers. Jamal Crawford is next on the team in made 3-pointers but has hit only 31.1 percent since the start of December.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (30-20 SU, 22-28 ATS, 16-33-1 O/U): While LeBron James’ scoring average (26.2) is on pace to be his lowest since his rookie campaign, the superstar has been handing out assists at his best rate since the last season of his previous stint with Cleveland in 2009-10 – when he averaged a career-high 8.6 – and his ability to distribute has been vital. James had 11 assists in the 97-84 win over Philadelphia on Monday, his ninth double-digit effort of the season, as the Cavaliers improved to 12-1 in games in which James has at least nine helpers. The effort against the 76ers left James needing 101 assists to catch Mark Price for the all-time franchise lead and 50 to tie former Chicago Bulls great Scottie Pippen for the most in NBA history by a forward.
TRENDS:
*Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.
*Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
*Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games.
CONSENSUS: 53.39 percent are backing LAC +4.5, with 61.23 percent on the over.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
By MATT FARGO
The PGA Tour returns to California with the Farmers Insurance Open from historic Torrey Pines in La Jolla. Last week, Brooks Koepka was able to hold off Bubba Watson, Ryan Palmer and Hideki Matsuyama to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open by one shot for his first tour victory. This week, 156 golfers will be eyeing the $6,300,000 purse in what is the biggest and most star studded field of the young PGA Tour season.
Scoring low on the North course is imperative because the South will not give in. The South Course is the longest course on Tour at 7,698 yards but that does not mean big hitters will dominate. Experience is the biggest factor this week as a mix of small greens with Poa annua can cause havoc for many. Only the U.S. Open has gone longer than the Farmers in a first timer winning as you have to go back to 1957 when Arnold Palmer captured the tournament in his first trip here.
Scott Stallings took home the hardware and $1,098,000 as he won by a stroke over five other players. The favorite going in last year was Tiger Woods (+250) and he missed the Sunday cut and finished T80. This year, his odds are at +3,000 (sportsbook.ag) so we are seeing some value for once with Woods but after watching him play last week on Friday, he cannot be trusted to make the cut, let alone win.
Jason Day (+1,150) is making his first start since the Sony Open where he finished T17 which followed a T3 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. That T17 is his worst finish since The Open Championship last year as he has six T7 or better finishes. He was part of the group that tied for second at the Farmers last year which came after a T9 in 2013.
Rickie Fowler (+2,300) did not play great last week in Phoenix as he finished T46 but he closed 2014 with a T3 and a T6 which came after a brilliant season last year that saw him close with seven T9’s or better in his last eight starts. Thursday at the Farmers has not been kind to him the last two years as he has opened with 77’s but he was still able to finish T6 in 2013.
After missing the cut at the Humana, Brandt Snedeker (+2,300) came back with a T10 last week as his putter caught fire. That is good timing as he can be aggressive with the flat stick at Torrey because of the Poa and he certainly loves it here. Since 2010, he has a T2, T9, WIN, T2 and a missed cut which happened last year but he was not healthy and that is no longer the case.
Gary Woodland (+3,500) let us down last week with a missed cut in Phoenix but I will back him again this week as he was coming off a T3 at the Sony Open. He is a big hitter and while that always isn’t the best asset here despite Torrey South being the longest course on tour, he has had success here by never missing a cut. A Sunday 74 pushed him to a T10 last year.
For someone who is playing solid and has had recent success here, Russell Knox (+8,000) is not getting very much respect. This will be his fourth straight start in 2015 and while he missed the cut at the Humana, he surrounded that with a T13 at the Sony and a T15 last week. He missed the cut at Torrey in his first stat here in 2012 but came back with a T10 last year.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Farmers Insurance Open – All for 1 Unit
Jason Day (+1,150)
Rickie Fowler (+2,300)
Brandt Snedeker (+2,300)
Gary Woodland (+3,500)
Russell Knox (+8,000)
2015 Record to date after 3 event: +14 Units.
Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units.
Humana Challenge +24 Units.
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units.
Hockey Crusher
Arizona Coyotes -130 over Carolina Hurricanes
(System Record: 62-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 62-44-1
Basketball Crusher
Pepperdine +2 over BYU
(System Record: 46-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 46-47-2
Soccer Crusher
Boavista + Cabofriense RJ UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 700-25, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 700-586-106
Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today…
Hockey
Detroit Red Wings + Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5.5
San Jose Sharks + Vancouver Canucks OVER 5
New York Islanders -111 over Philadelphia Flyers
Basketball
Loyola Marymount +2 over San Diego
Auburn +11.5 over LSU
La Salle +1 over Richmond
Newsletter NBA Basketball Prediction From Jason Sharpe
Take #508 Portland -6 over Phoenix (10:30 p.m., Thursday, Feb. 5)
The Portland Trail Blazers are a much better team when at home than on the road as they look for revenge here in this one. The Blazers came from 25 points down in their last game versus Phoenix just a few weeks ago and almost pulled off the miracle come-from-behind win. Even more impressive was the fact they did it without their best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, who was out of the lineup. That won’t be the case here in this one as they not only have Aldridge back but also have seen the return of big man Robin Lopez here. The Blazers are a much better team with Lopez on the court as evidenced by their 20-6 record with him playing while going just 13-10 without him. Play Portland here.
MADDUX SPORTS
10* #561 BYU -2